Nyugdíjcélú életjáradékok életartam-kockázata az általánosított korcsoport−időszak−kohorsz modellkeretben

Tanulmányom módszertani részében a halandóság statisztikai előrejelzésére alkalmazható egyre népszerűbb eljárásokat Magyarországon elsőként egységes tárgyalásban, az általánosított korcsoport–időszak–kohorsz (GAPC) modellcsalád mint új paradigma keretében mutatom be. Ezt követően egy empirikus elemzés keretében öt nevezetes modellt illesztek a hazai 65 éves és idősebb egyének 1975–2014. naptári évekbeli halandósági adataira, és a mintán kívüli előrejelzési pontosság kritériuma alapján az időskori halandóság modellezésére széleskörűen alkalmazott Cairns–Blake–Dowd modell alkalmazása mellett döntök. A kiválasztott modell segítségével Májer–Kovács [2011] cikke nyomán elvégzem a nyugdíjkorhatáron várható hátralévő élettartam és a nyugdíjcélú életjáradékok egyszeri nettó díjának becslését. A kérdés aktualitását az önkéntes nyugdíjpénztári járadék¬szolgáltatásra vonatkozó szabályok friss változásai adják, amelyek felértékelik a halandóság-előrejelző módszertan szerepét. Elemzésemben nagy hangsúlyt fektetek a paraméter-bizonytalanság megfelelő modellezésére. Az elvégzett számítások alapján megállapítom, hogy a közelmúltban az élettartam-kockázat szerepe jelentősen felértékelődött. Célom, hogy eredményeimet a tudományos kutatók, statisztikai és társadalombiztosítási szakemberek és gyakorló aktuáriusok egyaránt eredményesen használhassák fel a jövőben az olyan modellek készítése során, amelyekben lényeges szempont az élettartam-kockázat módszertani szempontból megfelelő figyelembe vétele.

The role of longevity risk in Hungary

In this paper, I analyze the role of longevity risk in Hungary in the public pension system and the life annuity segment of the life insurance market, which are two primary financial sectors of relevance to this special type of actuarial risk, using state-of-the- art econometric methodology. To this end, I present an overview and the mathematical background of several important current mortality forecasting techniques from the Lee–Carter model up to unifying paradigm of the Age–Period–Cohort family of models. After presenting the findings of a case study on the public pension system based on the paper of Bajk ́o, Maknics, T ́oth and V ́ekas, I conclude that longevity risk jeopardizes the sustainability of the Hungarian public pension system in the long run. In another case study, I present an analysis of the role of longevity risk in the pre- mium of private pension annuities, a relevant topic due to recent changes in a law on Hungarian voluntary pension funds, following an earlier analysis of M ́ajer and Kov ́acs. Based on the criterion on out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, I find that the Cairns–Blake– Dowd mortality forecasting model aimed specifically at modeling old-age mortality outperforms the Lee–Carter model applied by M ́ajer and Kov ́acs . Based on numerical results, I finally conclude that the role of longevity risk in the Hungarian life annuity mar- ket has increased significantly in the past decade and is likely to further increase in the future.

The quality of inter- and intra-ethnic friendships among roma and non-roma students in Hungary

In this paper I compare the quality of inter- and intra-ethnic friendships. Findings of previous studies suggest that interethnic friendships are less likely to be characterized by closeness and intimacy than friendships among same-ethnic peers. I analyze data of a Hungarian panel study conducted among Roma and non-Roma Hungarian secondary school students. Descriptive analysis of 13 classes shows that interethnic friendships are indeed less often characterized by a co-occurring trust, perceived helpfulness, or jointly spent spare time nomination than intra-ethnic ones. This association holds if I include self-declared ethnicity as well as peer perceptions of ethnicity into the analysis. Analyzing self-declared ethnicity of students I also find that interethnic relations are less often reciprocated than intra-ethnic ones. If I concentrate on ethnic peer perceptions, however, I find that outgoing nominations of non-Roma students are more often reciprocated by classmates perceived as Roma than by classmates perceived as non-Roma.

Patterns in the lottery game

The present study is based on the analysis and results of a close to 5 years’ study in the frame which we used a “Lottery Game” in the "Decision Making Skills" subject taught at Corvinus Business School, Corvinus University of Budapest. In the frame of the "game", the students (Hungarians (n=231) and foreigners (n=267) alike) have to mark 6 numbers on a 7x7 lottery ticket. The winner is the student whose numbers differ the most from those of all the other students’. Upon analyzing the results (irrespectively of nationality) the authors have noted something notable: the winning combinations - rather than being located randomly on the ticket, characteristically resemble a geometric form. In our study we wanted to detect the relevance of geometry in this kind of choices. It is hypothesized that in such games (lottery type, related to numeric combination choice), where the players decide upon their strategy (choice of numbers) by also taking into consideration others’ expected choices, the winning strategy is characteristically some consciously chosen scheme or pattern as opposed to a random one. The study presents the results of the available samples (Hungarian students: n=231, foreign students: n=267), the winning combinations, the most often designated numbers, as well as the least “popular” numbers and their presentation on a "heat map". In the case of the majority of the winning tickets we found the use of conscious strategic choice to be more useful. These conscious strategic decisions were reflected in identifiable geometric forms. Based on the results, we hypothesize that in the "hidden lottery" game – in contrast with random choice – the most effective strategy of choice is the conscious ordered one in which the player marks the numbers on the lottery ticket in some modified geometric pattern. The goal of the paper is to propose further research on the field.

An analysis of the labor market situation of vocational students based on national and international data

The article focuses on the labour market situation and opportunities of the Hungarian vocational students. After briefly placing the topic in an international context, the study introduces the findings of the Hungarian empirical researches. Due to the differences between the various national education systems, it is not easy to make international comparisons; therefore I chose former socialist countries with characteristics similar to those of Hungary. When comparing the relevant data, it became clear that obtaining a diploma provides more advantages in Hungary. Hungarian researches suggest that vocational schools mostly attract students with poor competence test scores at the end of primary school. Also a significant proportion of these students are disadvantaged. Vocational students are the most likely to drop out of the system and their return to the school later is sporadic at best. Although a completed VET improves their employment conditions and prospects, many of the graduates will leave their profession or do unskilled labour. Their labour income varies greatly depending on their type of trade and experience gained.

Ethnic groups and institutions: A study of institutional engineering in four Central and Eastern European countries

The issue of institutional engineering has gained a renewed interest with the democratic transitions of the Central and Eastern European countries, as for some states it has become a matter of state survival. The four countries examined in the study – Macedonia, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria – exemplify the difficulty in establishing a stable democratic society in the context of the resurgence of national identity. The success of ethnonational minorities in achieving the desired policies affirming or expanding their rights as a group was conditioned upon the cohesion of the minority as well as the permissiveness of state institutions in terms of participation and representation of minority members. The Hungarian minorities in Slovakia and Romania, the Turkish minority in Bulgaria, and the Albanian minority in Macedonia, formed their political organizations to represent their interests. However, in some cases the divergence of strategies or goals between factions of the minority group seriously impeded its ability to obtain the desired concessions from the majority. The difficulty in the pursuit of policies favoring the expansion of minority rights was further exacerbated in some of the cases by the impermissiveness of political institutions. The political parties representing the interest of ethnonational minorities were allowed to participate in elections, although not without suspicions about their intent and even strong opposition from majority groups, but participation in elections and subsequent representation in legislative bodies did not translate into adoption of the desired policies. The ethnonational minorities' inability to effectively influence the decision-making process was the result of the inadequacy of democratic institutions to process these demands and channel them through the normal political process in the absence of majority desire to accommodate them. Despite the promise of democratic institutions to bring about a major overhaul of the policies of forceful assimilation and disregard for minority rights, the four cases analyzed in the study demonstrate that in effect ethnonational minorities continued to be at the mercy of the majority, especially if the minority was unable to position itself as a balancing actor.

Extended program notes for thesis recital

Chaconne, Transcription for Piano in D minor J.S. Bach (arr. Ferruccio Busoni) Reflets dans l'eau from Images, Book 1 Claude Debussy A la Albeniz Rodion Shchedrin Basso Ostinato from Two Polyphonic Pieces Sonata-Reminiscenza, Op. 38, No. 1 Nikolai Medtner Die Loreley, S. 532 Franz Liszt Hungarian Rhapsody No. 6

Computer Assisted Content Analysis of the print press coverarge of corruption in Hungary

Coverage of corruption in the Hungarian media was analyzed using four online news portals. Three of them, Magyar Nemzet Online (short name: MNO, web: mno.hu), Népszava (web: nepszava.hu) and Heti Világgazdaság (web: hvg.hu) are also available as newspapers but the content of these papers is different from the online form to a certain extent. The news portal Origo (web: origo.hu) has no print version.

Work-life Balance and Gender Regime After the Economic Transition

Work-life balance (WLB) is a key issue in our societies in which there is increasing pressure to be permanently available on demand and to work more intensively, and when due to technological change the borders between work and private life appear to be dissolving. However, the social, institutional and normative frames of a region have a huge impact on how people experience work and private life, where the borders between these spheres lie and how much control individuals have in managing these borders. Based on these arguments, this editorial to the special issue Work-life balance/imbalance: individual, organisational and social experiences in Intersections. EEJSP draws attention to the social institutions, frameworks and norms which have an effect on experience, practices and expectations about work-life balance. Concerning the time horizon, this editorial focuses on the change of regime as a reference point since socialist and post-socialist eras differ significantly, although there is still some continuity between them. The authors of this introduction offer an overview of the situation in CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) based mainly on examples of Visegrad countries.

Casamientos católicos secretos de funcionarios y militares en Buenos Aires e Hispanoamérica : Intrínseca constitución de algunos de sus matrimonios secretos, de conciencia u ocultos. Siglos XVIII-XIX

El objetivo del trabajo es dar a conocer los casamientos secretos efectuados por la Iglesia Católica a espaldas del Rey y las autoridades virreinales en Buenos Aires; especialmente, de funcionarios y oficiales de las fuerzas terrestres y navales de la monarquía en el siglo XVIII. Los análisis se basan en el Derecho Canónico y lo establecido en el Concilio de Trento (1545-1563). Una variada bibliografía relacionada con la constitución de las familias en Europa e Hispanoamérica permitió explorar un marco desconocido de lo ocurrido con estos matrimonios secretos también llamados de conciencia u ocultos. Se explicitan las características de este tipo de nupcias y la casuística encontrada resultado del análisis hermenéutico de las Actas parroquiales porteñas.

Casamientos católicos secretos de funcionarios y militares en Buenos Aires e Hispanoamérica : Intrínseca constitución de algunos de sus matrimonios secretos, de conciencia u ocultos. Siglos XVIII-XIX

El objetivo del trabajo es dar a conocer los casamientos secretos efectuados por la Iglesia Católica a espaldas del Rey y las autoridades virreinales en Buenos Aires; especialmente, de funcionarios y oficiales de las fuerzas terrestres y navales de la monarquía en el siglo XVIII. Los análisis se basan en el Derecho Canónico y lo establecido en el Concilio de Trento (1545-1563). Una variada bibliografía relacionada con la constitución de las familias en Europa e Hispanoamérica permitió explorar un marco desconocido de lo ocurrido con estos matrimonios secretos también llamados de conciencia u ocultos. Se explicitan las características de este tipo de nupcias y la casuística encontrada resultado del análisis hermenéutico de las Actas parroquiales porteñas.

La basileía "revolucionaria" de Nabis

El rey Nabis de Esparta es caracterizado por las fuentes literarias antiguas como un tirano al haber emprendido una serie de reformas radicales que, particularmente en sus contenidos sociales, atentaban contra el orden establecido y ponían en peligro la supremacía en el Peloponeso de una conservadora liga aquea sostenida en las clases propietarias y respaldada por las imparables legiones romanas. Es el propósito del presente artículo analizar las bases de esa monarquía "revolucionaria" de Nabis, así como el alcance, los objetivos y la fortuna final de sus medidas, que supusieron un intento de acomodarse a la realidad de los estados helenísticos sin renunciar por ello a las señas de identidad y al acervo cultural espartano. La finalidad última era reconquistar parte de su pasado esplendor militar y lograr un lugar digno, si no hegemónico, en el complejo e inestable tablero geopolítico peloponésico, pero la elite aquea no cesó hasta acallar toda reivindicación socioeconómica en la sociedad lacedemonia.

Casamientos católicos secretos de funcionarios y militares en Buenos Aires e Hispanoamérica : Intrínseca constitución de algunos de sus matrimonios secretos, de conciencia u ocultos. Siglos XVIII-XIX

El objetivo del trabajo es dar a conocer los casamientos secretos efectuados por la Iglesia Católica a espaldas del Rey y las autoridades virreinales en Buenos Aires; especialmente, de funcionarios y oficiales de las fuerzas terrestres y navales de la monarquía en el siglo XVIII. Los análisis se basan en el Derecho Canónico y lo establecido en el Concilio de Trento (1545-1563). Una variada bibliografía relacionada con la constitución de las familias en Europa e Hispanoamérica permitió explorar un marco desconocido de lo ocurrido con estos matrimonios secretos también llamados de conciencia u ocultos. Se explicitan las características de este tipo de nupcias y la casuística encontrada resultado del análisis hermenéutico de las Actas parroquiales porteñas.

Imágenes recalcitrantes: el caso de la proclamación de Juan Carlos I como rey de España (22 de noviembre de 1975)

En el flujo informativo, algunas imágenes, que calificamos aquí de “recalcitrantes” se resisten a perecer y sobreviven a su contexto de producción. El presente estudio analiza cómo una de ellas, la secuencia televisiva de la proclamación de Juan Carlos como sucesor de Francisco Franco a la jefatura del estado, el 22 de noviembre de 1975, ha sobrevivido, metamorfoseándose hasta hoy en día, de pantallas en pantallas, a través de una muestra representativa de algunas de sus reelaboraciones más significativas.

Patronazgo nobiliario e individuo. Los Macanaz y la “hora” del XVIII

Desde la fecunda obra de Caro Baroja, la renovación de las élites de gobierno localizada a comienzos del setecientos ha llamado la atención de una parte de la historiografía preocupada en proponer diversos enfoques con los que interpretar este proceso de enormes consecuencias sociales y políticas. El caso de los Macanaz presenta una serie de peculiaridades que lo hacen propicio para un análisis detallado de su proceso de promoción familiar en el que sobresale la trascendencia de ciertos factores escasamente subrayados hasta el momento. El importante papel desempeñado por la casa aristocrática de Villena y el escaso peso de lo local o regnícola en su proyección posterior, nos servirá para cuestionar la dimensión de los Macanaz como iniciadores de una hipotética “hora murciana”, destacando en su caso la importancia de otros elementos complementarios como el patrocinio nobiliario, el mérito, la formación y la capacidad e iniciativa individual, vías también de acceso al servicio del rey.