Análise estatística da distribuição de Poisson

The general properties of POISSON distributions and their relations to the binomial distribuitions are discussed. Two methods of statistical analysis are dealt with in detail: X2-test. In order to carry out the X2-test, the mean frequency and the theoretical frequencies for all classes are calculated. Than the observed and the calculated frequencies are compared, using the well nown formula: f(obs) - f(esp) 2; i(esp). When the expected frequencies are small, one must not forget that the value of X2 may only be calculated, if the expected frequencies are biger than 5. If smaller values should occur, the frequencies of neighboroughing classes must ge pooled. As a second test reintroduced by BRIEGER, consists in comparing the observed and expected error standard of the series. The observed error is calculated by the general formula: δ + Σ f . VK n-1 where n represents the number of cases. The theoretical error of a POISSON series with mean frequency m is always ± Vm. These two values may be compared either by dividing the observed by the theoretical error and using BRIEGER's tables for # or by dividing the respective variances and using SNEDECOR's tables for F. The degree of freedom for the observed error is one less the number of cases studied, and that of the theoretical error is always infinite. In carrying out these tests, one important point must never be overlloked. The values for the first class, even if no concrete cases of the type were observed, must always be zero, an dthe value of the subsequent classes must be 1, 2, 3, etc.. This is easily seen in some of the classical experiments. For instance in BORKEWITZ example of accidents in Prussian armee corps, the classes are: no, one, two, etc., accidents. When counting the frequency of bacteria, these values are: no, one, two, etc., bacteria or cultures of bacteria. Ins studies of plant diseases equally the frequencies are : no, one, two, etc., plants deseased. Howewer more complicated cases may occur. For instance, when analising the degree of polyembriony, frequently the case of "no polyembryony" corresponds to the occurrence of one embryo per each seed. Thus the classes are not: no, one, etc., embryo per seed, but they are: no additional embryo, one additional embryo, etc., per seed with at least one embryo. Another interestin case was found by BRIEGER in genetic studies on the number os rows in maize. Here the minimum number is of course not: no rows, but: no additional beyond eight rows. The next class is not: nine rows, but: 10 rows, since the row number varies always in pairs of rows. Thus the value of successive classes are: no additional pair of rows beyond 8, one additional pair (or 10 rows), two additional pairs (or 12 rows) etc.. The application of the methods is finally shown on the hand of three examples : the number of seeds per fruit in the oranges M Natal" and "Coco" and in "Calamondin". As shown in the text and the tables, the agreement with a POISSON series is very satisfactory in the first two cases. In the third case BRIEGER's error test indicated a significant reduction of variability, and the X2 test showed that there were two many fruits with 4 or 5 seeds and too few with more or with less seeds. Howewer the fact that no fruit was found without seed, may be taken to indicate that in Calamondin fruits are not fully parthenocarpic and may develop only with one seed at the least. Thus a new analysis was carried out, on another class basis. As value for the first class the following value was accepted: no additional seed beyond the indispensable minimum number of one seed, and for the later classes the values were: one, two, etc., additional seeds. Using this new basis for all calculations, a complete agreement of the observed and expected frequencies, of the correspondig POISSON series was obtained, thus proving that our hypothesis of the impossibility of obtaining fruits without any seed was correct for Calamondin while the other two oranges were completely parthenocarpic and fruits without seeds did occur.

Lattice point inequalities and face numbers of polytopes in view of central symmetry

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2012

Estudo comparativo entre métodos de contrôle quantitativo da produção leiteira

This paper deals with the estimation of milk production by means of weekly, biweekly, bimonthly observations and also by method known as 6-5-8, where one observation is taken at the 6th week of lactation, another at 5th month and a third one at the 8th month. The data studied were obtained from 72 lactations of the Holstein Friesian breed of the "Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz" (Piracicaba), S. Paulo, Brazil), being 6 calvings on each month of year and also 12 first calvings, 12 second calvings, and so on, up to the sixth. The authors criticize the use of "maximum error" to be found in papers dealing with this subject, and also the use of mean deviation. The former is completely supersed and unadvisable and latter, although equivalent, to a certain extent, to the usual standard deviation, has only 87,6% of its efficiency, according to KENDALL (9, pp. 130-131, 10, pp. 6-7). The data obtained were compared with the actual production, obtained by daily control and the deviations observed were studied. Their means and standard deviations are given on the table IV. Inspite of BOX's recent results (11) showing that with equal numbers in all classes a certain inequality of varinces is not important, the autors separated the methods, before carrying out the analysis of variance, thus avoiding to put together methods with too different standard deviations. We compared the three first methods, to begin with (Table VI). Then we carried out the analysis with the four first methods. (Table VII). Finally we compared the two last methods. (Table VIII). These analysis of variance compare the arithmetic means of the deviations by the methods studied, and this is equivalent to compare their biases. So we conclude tht season of calving and order of calving do not effect the biases, and the methods themselves do not differ from this view point, with the exception of method 6-5-8. Another method of attack, maybe preferrable, would be to compare the estimates of the biases with their expected mean under the null hypothesis (zero) by the t-test. We have: 1) Weekley control: t = x - 0/c(x) = 8,59 - 0/ = 1,56 2) Biweekly control: t = 11,20 - 0/6,21= 1,80 3) Monthly control: t = 7,17 - 0/9,48 = 0,76 4) Bimonthly control: t = - 4,66 - 0/17,56 = -0,26 5) Method 6-5-8 t = 144,89 - 0/22,41 = 6,46*** We denote above by three asterisks, significance the 0,1% level of probability. In this way we should conclude that the weekly, biweekly, monthly and bimonthly methods of control may be assumed to be unbiased. The 6-5-8 method is proved to be positively biased, and here the bias equals 5,9% of the mean milk production. The precision of the methods studied may be judged by their standard deviations, or by intervals covering, with a certain probability (95% for example), the deviation x corresponding to an estimate obtained by cne of the methods studied. Since the difference x - x, where x is the mean of the 72 deviations obtained for each method, has a t distribution with mean zero and estimate of standard deviation. s(x - x) = √1+ 1/72 . s = 1.007. s , and the limit of t for the 5% probability, level with 71 degrees of freedom is 1.99, then the interval to be considered is given by x ± 1.99 x 1.007 s = x ± 2.00. s The intervals thus calculated are given on the table IX.

Ornithological notes from Point Barrow, Alaska, by Louis B. Bishop.

v.29:no.12(1944)

Population fluctuations of calliphorid species (Diptera, Calliphoridae) in the Biological Reserve of Tinguá, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The purpose of this work was to determine the diversity and population fluctuations of calliphorid flies in the Biological Reserve of Tinguá (ReBio-Tinguá), Nova Iguaçu, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and to correlate their occurrence with the environmental variables of temperature, rainfall and relative air humidity. Specimens of Diptera were collected monthly between June 2002 and January 2005 using four traps placed at four points along a trail and exposed for 48 hours. The traps were baited with sardines and the trapped insects were stored in 70% alcohol. It was collected 8,528 calliphorids, thirteen species were identified among the blowflies including Laneela nigripes Guimarães 1977, Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius, 1794), C. albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819), C. putoria (Wiedemann, 1830), Chloroprocta idioidea (Robineau-Devoidy, 1830), Cochliomyia macellaria (Fabricius, 1775), Hemilucilia semidiaphana (Rondani, 1850), H. segmentaria (Fabricius, 1805), Lucilia eximia (Wiedemann,1819), L. cuprina (Wiedemann, 1830), Paralucilia pseudolyrcea (Mello, 1969), Mesembrinella sp. and Eumesembrinella pauciseta (Aldrich, 1922). No significant correlation was found between the abundance of blowflies and the temperature and relative air humidity. Only C. megacephala and C. albiceps showed a positive and significant correlation with rainfall. An analysis of grouping by month (UPGMA) revealed no seasonal difference in the composition of the community, indicating that the community of calliphorid flies is probably more influenced by the ecological niches occupied by each species than by the seasons of the year.

Modelagem de ocorrência e densidade de juvenis de Callinectes sapidus (Decapoda, Portunidae) em dois estuários do Rio Grande do Sul, com dados zero-inflacionados

Dados de contagem de juvenis de siri-azul (Callinectes sapidus Rathbun, 1896) coletados em dois estuários do Rio Grande do Sul são objeto do presente estudo. Por se encontrarem zero-inflacionados, esses dados motivaram a formulação de modelos hierárquicos, que quantificam o efeito das covariáveis categóricas mês e local sobre a probabilidade de ocorrência e densidade dessas populações, levando em conta a detecção imperfeita. Foram também desenvolvidos modelos não-hierárquicos para comparação. Uma abordagem Bayesiana foi adotada para a estimação dos parâmetros dos modelos por simulação Monte Carlo com Cadeias de Markov (MCMC). A comparação entre modelos foi feita com o Critério de Informação da Deviância (DIC). Os modelos hierárquicos apresentaram ajustes melhores que os modelos convencionais, mitigaram o problema do excesso de zeros e permitiram analisar simultaneamente as probabilidades de ocorrência e a densidade de juvenis de siri-azul. No estuário da Lagoa dos Patos, a probabilidade de ocorrência de juvenis na Classe 2 aumenta com a distância da desembocadura, enquanto em Tramandaí os pontos intermediários apresentam as maiores probabilidades. Em ambos os estuários a ocorrência é mais provável nos meses de verão e de inverno. A densidade de juvenis da Classe 2 apresenta marcada variação em relação aos meses do ano sendo, em geral, maior no estuário de Tramandaí.

Estudos dos agrupamentos vegetativos relacionados com as áreas onde foram efetuadas as pesquisas sôbre a febre amarela silvestre no Município de Passos, Estado de Minas Gerais

The work reported here was carried-out on the invitation of Dr. Henry Kumm, Director of the Rockefeller Foundation, and by appointment from Dr. Henrique Aragão, Director of the Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. It was done during the investigation of sylvan yellow fever, in June 1947, with a view to establishing the phyto-ecological conditions of the county of Passos. The pe¬riod was, however, too short for definite conclusions to be reached. Thanks are due to Dr. O. R. Causey, Chief of Research on Yellow Fever for transpor¬tation and other help. THE REGIONAL VEGETATION. Aerial photographs of the county of Passos shoto that it is covered by three great types of vegetation: Rain Forest, Secondary Pasture Land and Scrub.1 Detailed investigation, however, brings out the fact that these correspond to different seres; furthermore, each type presents not only the specific, characteristics of the biological form dominant for the climate, but also are at various stages, which express HABITATS differing from those of the normal sere. The phytogeographic survey of the region shows that most of it is now covered by secondary pasture land (disclimax) in which Melinis minutiflora, v. "fat grass" (fig. 1), predominates. The mosaic of Rain Forest and of small patches of Scrub reveals the effects of human intervention (BARRETO, H. L. de Mello 1); consequently, all the formations have to be regarded as secon¬dary, though some of them probably include relicts of the primitive climax (WARMING, E. 2). On close examination, the Scrub cannot be considered as the climax, because of the following facts: 1. In the zone of Rain-Forest stretches of forest are present in very varied topographic conditions and the reconstitution of the associations show that man has destroyed an ecological unit (fig. 2). 2. In the zone of Scrub the characteristic patches are small. The banks of rivers and brooks, the valleys and ravine and whatever the soil has retained some humidity, is being invaded fry Rain Forest, which seems to be growing under optimum conditions. The Scrub is thus limited to small belts on the calcareous mountains and on sandy soils with alcaline depths (pH abo¬ve 7) which do not retain enough moisture for the Rain Forest that is progres¬sively restricting the area occupied by Scrub. In view of the topographic and present climatic conditions the Rain Forest must consequently be regarded as the regional climax. The presence of ecologically contradictory elements and associations shows that the real problem is that of the fluctuations of the climate of Passos or even of Minas Geraes during the quaternary and recent periods (DAN-SEREAU, P. : 3), a subject on which little is known and which is tied to the evolution of the climate of Brazil (OLIVEIRA, E. : 4) . The transformation of Scrub into Rain Forest has been - observed by the author before, in other parts of Brazil (VELOSO, PL P.: 5) . It seems probable that the Rio Grande has also greatly influenced the change of the regional vegetation, by invading areas of Scrub and dislocating the limit of the Pluvial climate towards the Canastra Range, though there are remnants of Scrub (postclimax) transfor¬med into secondary open country (disclimax, fig. 5) by human devastation and the setting of fire to the land. VEGETATION GROUPS OF THE PLUVIAL TYPE. The map of the region also shows that at the present time the small patches of forest (whether devasted or intact) occupy the least accessible places, such as valleys, peaks and abrupt slopes (fig. 2). Even these are now being destroyed, so that in the near future this forested region will be en¬tirely reduced to poor pasture land unless energetic measures of conservation are undertaken in time. The Special Service for Prophylaxis against Yellow Fever installed two of their four Stations for the Capture of Mosquitos in this area, one of them at Batatal and the other at Cachoeira, which have separate formations each of them composed of several associations. Other vegetation formations were also analysed, from the synecological point of view, so as to ascertain of which degree of succession their associations belong. These phytosociological sur¬veys give an idea of the principal characteristics of each station. BATATAL FORMATION. The abrupt nature of the valley has rendered this location inappropriate for agricultural purposes since colonial times. The relict of the primitive forest climax saved by this circumstance has expanded gradually to zones whose paedologic conditions favour the eatablishment of mesophilous species. The aerial photograph shows two small stretches of forest, one apparently primi¬tive, the other composed of associations belonging to the subclimax of the subsere. CACHOEIRA FORMATION. Aerial photographs show that this station is crossed by a small river, which divides it into two separate parts. The first, which presents ecological conditions similar, though not identical to those of Batatal, is favoured by topography and apparently remains primitive forest. Though the topography of the other, on the whole, favours the establishment of groups belonging to the normal sere of the climax, is has been partly devastated recently and the aspect of the associations has been completely modified. It was is this part that the four posts for the capturing of mosquitos were set up. The first forest is favoured by deposition of organic matter, washed out from the nearby devasted areas by torrential rains, and thus provides, an appropriate HABITAT for the climax species with certain hygrophilous trends of the ecological quasiclimax type. This association seems to have reached a biological equilibrium, as the dominates. Gallesia gorarema and Cariniana legalis (fig. 10), present an optimum vitality with a vigorous habit and a normal evolutionary cycle. The Cariniantum legalis Gallesiosum equilibrium, corresponds however, to a provisory association, because if the moving of soil by torrential rains should cease it would become possible…

Spatial competition between two candidates of different quality: the effects of candidate ideology and private information

This paper examines competition in a spatial model of two-candidate elections, where one candidate enjoys a quality advantage over the other candidate. The candidates care about winning and also have policy preferences. There is two-dimensional private information. Candidate ideal points as well as their tradeoffs between policy preferences and winning are private information. The distribution of this two-dimensional type is common knowledge. The location of the median voter's ideal point is uncertain, with a distribution that is commonly known by both candidates. Pure strategy equilibria always exist in this model. We characterize the effects of increased uncertainty about the median voter, the effect of candidate policy preferences, and the effects of changes in the distribution of private information. We prove that the distribution of candidate policies approaches the mixed equilibrium of Aragones and Palfrey (2002a), when both candidates' weights on policy preferences go to zero.

De la vivència a l'experiència: la significació del medi aquàtic en el desenvolupament de l'infant

This work gets deeply into the comprehension of the aquatic medium as a significant space for the for a psychomotor intervention in the development of the children. Its starting point is a methodological pose of philosophical nature which uses phenomenology as the way for discovering. From this stand, the research sequence and process are justified. They both show an underlying attitude which has guided the whole process of turning the learning-by-experiencing the phenomena into experienced-knowledge of it. In this way the characteristic gnoseological reduction of the phenomenology has been used, while proceeding to the observation of children evolving in the water. Once the construction process of this work was established, the reduction of the amount of concepts and ideas began. This is its most characteristic process of the phenomenological research. First, an approach to the aquatic medium as a pluridimensional space has been made. Afterwards a study of the up to three years old child from a global perspective which includes the emotional, the social the cognitive and the psychomotor dimensions has been done. At last, the essence of the psychomotor as a model for the pedagogical action has been studied. From this three distinctive elements, and as a result of this research, a proposal of psychomotor intervention in the aquatic medium has been built.

Real rank zero algebras have the corona factorization property

The purpose of this short note is to prove that a stable separable C*-algebra with real rank zero has the so-called corona factorization property, that is, all the full multiplier projections are properly in finite. Enroute to our result, we consider conditions under which a real rank zero C*-algebra admits an injection of the compact operators (a question already considered in [21]).

Testing of stair climbing point-of-choice prompts in Barcelona at an outdoor set of stairs and scalators on the Montjuïc site

Regular stair climbing has well-documented health dividends, such as increased fitness and strength, weight loss and reduced body fat, improved lipid profiles and reduced risk of osteoporosis. The general absence of barriers to participation makes stair climbing an ideal physical activity (PA) for health promotion. Studies in the US and the UK have consistently shown that interventions to increase the accumulation of lifestyle PA by climbing stairs rather than using the escalators are effective. However, there are no previous in Catalonia. This project tested one message for their ability to prompt travelers on the Montjuïc site to choose the stairs rather than the escalator when climbing up the Monjuïc hill. One standard message, " Take the stairs! 7 minutes of stair climbing a day protects your heart" provided a comparison with previous research done in the UK. Translated into Catalan and Spanish, it was presented on a poster positioned at the point of choice between the stairs and the escalator. The study used a quasi-experimental, interrupted time series design. Travelers, during several and specific hours on two days of the week, were coded for stair or escalator use, gender, age, ethnic status, presence of accompanying children or bags by one observer. Overall, the intervention resulted in a 81% increase in stair climbing. In the follow-up period without messages, stair climbing dropped out to baseline levels. This preliminary study showed a significant effect on stair use. However, caution is needed since results are based on a small sample and, only a low percentage of the sample took the stairs at baseline or the intervention phase . Future research on stair use in Catalonia should focus on using bigger samples, different sites (metro stations, airports, shopping centers, etc) , different messages and techniques to promote stair climbing.

Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets

We analyse the implications of optimal taxation for the stochastic behaviour of debt. We show that when a government pursues an optimal fiscal policy under complete markets, the value of debt has the same or less persistence than other variables in the economy and it declines in response to shocks that cause the deficit to increase. By contrast, under incomplete markets debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases in response to shocks that cause a higher deficit. Data for US government debt reveals diametrically opposite results from those of complete markets and is much more supportive of bond market incompleteness.