A class of stochastic games with infinitely many interacting agents related to Glauber dynamics on random graphs

We introduce and study a class of infinite-horizon nonzero-sum non-cooperative stochastic games with infinitely many interacting agents using ideas of statistical mechanics. First we show, in the general case of asymmetric interactions, the existence of a strategy that allows any player to eliminate losses after a finite random time. In the special case of symmetric interactions, we also prove that, as time goes to infinity, the game converges to a Nash equilibrium. Moreover, assuming that all agents adopt the same strategy, using arguments related to those leading to perfect simulation algorithms, spatial mixing and ergodicity are proved. In turn, ergodicity allows us to prove “fixation”, i.e. that players will adopt a constant strategy after a finite time. The resulting dynamics is related to zerotemperature Glauber dynamics on random graphs of possibly infinite volume.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Photodynamic therapy : a pathway for enhanced delivery of liposomal doxorubicin to tumors

Abstract Part I : Background : Isolated lung perfusion (ILP) was designed for the treatment of loco-regional malignancies of the lung. In contrast to intravenous (IV) drug application, ILP allows for a selective administration of cytostatic agents such as doxorubicin to the lung while sparing non-affected tissues. However, the clinical results with ILP were disappointing. Doxorubicinbased ILP on sarcoma rodent lungs suggested high overall doxorubicin concentrations within the perfused lung but a poor penetration of the cytostatic agent into tumors. The same holds true for liposomal-encapsulated macromolecular doxorubicin (LiporubicinTM) In specific conditions, low-dose photodynamic therapy (PDT) can enhance the distribution of macromolecules across the endothelial bamer in solid tumors. It was recently postulated that tumor neovessels were more responsive to PDT than the normal vasculature. We therefore hypothesized that Visudyne®-mediated PDT could selectively increase liposomal doxorubicin (LiporubicinTM) uptake in sarcoma tumors to rodent lungs during intravenous (IV) drug administration and isolated lung perfusion (ILP). Material and Methods : A sarcoma tumor was generated in the left lung of Fisher rats by subpleural injection of a sarcoma cell ,suspension via thoracotomy. Ten days later, LiporubicinTM is administered IV or by single pass antegrade ILP, with or without Visudyne® -mediated low-dose PDT pre-treatment of the sarcoma bearing lung. The drug concentration and distribution were assessed separately in tumors and lung tissues by high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC) and fluorescence microscopy (FNI~, respectively. Results : PDT pretreatment before IV LiporubicinTM administration resulted in a significantly higher tumor drug uptake and tumor to lung drug ratio compared to IV drug injection alone without affecting the blood flow and drug distribution in the lung. PDT pre-treatment before LiporubicinTM-based ILP also resulted in a higher tumor drug uptake and a higher tumor to lung drug ratio compared to ILP alone, however, these differences were not significant due to a heterogeneous blood flow drug distribution during ILP which was further accentuated by PDT. Conclusions : Low-dose Visudyne®-mediated PDT pre-treatment has the potential to selectively enhance liposomal encapsulated doxorubicin uptake in tumors but not in normal lung tissue after IV drug application in a rat model of sarcoma tumors to the lung which opens new perspectives for the treatment of superficially spreading chemoresistant tumors of the chest cavity such as mesothelioma or malignant effusion. However, the impact of PDT on macromolecular drug uptake during ILP is limited since its therapeutic advantage is circumvented by ILP-induced heterogeneicity of blood flow and drug distribution Abstract Part II Background : Photodynamic therapy (PDT) with Visudyne® acts by direct cellular phototoxicity and/or by an indirect vascular-mediated effect. Here, we demonstrate that the vessel integrity interruption by PDT can promote the extravasation of a macromolecular agent in normal tissue. To obtain extravasation in normal tissue PDT conditions were one order of magnitude more intensive than the ones in tissue containing neovessels reported in the literature. Material and Methods : Fluorescein isothiocyanate dextran (FITC-D, 2000kDa), a macromolecular agent, was intravenously injected 10 minutes before (LKO group, n=14) or 2 hours (LK2 group, n=16) after Visudyne® mediated PDT in nude mice bearing a dorsal skin fold chamber. Control animals had no PDT (CTRL group, n=8). The extravasation of FITC-D from blood vessels in striated muscle tissue was observed in both groups in real-time for up to 2500 seconds after injection. We also monitored PDT-induced leukocyte rolling in-vivo and assessed, by histology, the corresponding inflammatory reaction score in the dorsal skin fold chambers. Results : In all animals, at the applied PDT conditions, FITC-D extravasation was significantly enhanced in the PDT treated areas as compared to the surrounding non-treated areas (p<0.0001). There was no FITC-D leakage in the control animals. Animals from the LKO group had significantly less FITC-D extravasation than those from the LK2 group (p = 0.0002). In the LKO group FITC-D leakage correlated significantly with the inflammation (p < 0.001). Conclusions: At the selected conditions, Visudyne-mediated PDT promotes vascular leakage and FITC-D extravasation into the interstitial space of normal tissue. The intensity of vascular leakage depends on the time interval between PDT and FITC-D injection. This concept could be used to locally modulate the delivery of macromolecules in vivo. Résumé : La perfusion cytostatique isolée du poumon permet une administration sélective des agents cytostatiques sans implication de la circulation systémique avec une forte accumulation au niveau du poumon mais une faible pénétration dans les tumeurs. La thérapie photodynamique (PDT) qui consiste en l'application d'un sensibilisateur activé par lumière laser non- thermique d'une longueur d'onde définie permet dans certaines conditions, une augmentation de la pénétration des agents cytostatiques macromoléculaires à travers la barrière endothéliale tumorale. Nous avons exploré cet avantage thérapeutique de la PDT dans un modèle expérimental afin d'augmenter d'une manière sélective la pénétration tumorale de la doxorubicin pegylée, liposomal- encapsulée macromoléculaire (Liporubicin). Une tumeur sarcomateuse a été générée au niveau du poumon de rongeur suivie d'administration de Liporubicin, soit par voie intraveineuse soit par perfusion isolée du poumon (ILP). Une partie des animaux ont reçus un prétraitement de la tumeur et du poumon sous jacent par PDT avec Visudyne comme photosensibilisateur. Les résultats ont démontrés que la PDT permet, sous certaines conditions, une augmentation sélective de Liporubicin dans les tumeurs mais pas dans le parenchyme pulmonaire sous jacent. Après administration intraveineuse de Liporubicin et prétraitement par PDT, l'accumulation dans les tumeurs était significative par rapport au poumon, et aux tumeurs sans PDT. Le même phénomène est observé après ILP du poumon. Cependant, les différences avec ou sans PDT n'étaient pas significatives lié à und distribution hétérogène de Liporubicin dans le poumon perfusé après ILP. Dans une deuxième partie de l'expérimentation, nous avons exploré la microscopie intra-vitale pour déterminer l'extravasion des substances macromoléculaires (FITS) à travers la barrière endothéliale avec ou sans Visudyne-PDT au niveau des chambres dorsales des souris nues. Les résultats montrent qu'après PDT, l'extravasion de FITS a été augmentée de manière significative par rapport au tissu non traité. L'intensité de l'extravasion de FITS dépendait également de l'intervalle entre PDT et injection de FITS. En conclusion, les expérimentations montrent que la PDT est capable, sous certaines conditions, d'augmenter de manière significative l'extravasion des macromolécules à travers la barrière endothéliale et leur accumulation dans des tumeurs mais pas dans le parenchyme pulmonaire. Ces résultats permettent une nouvelle perspective de traitement pour des tumeurs superficielles intrathoraciques chimio-résistent comme l'épanchement pleural malin ou le mésothéliome pleural.

Soft tissue sarcomas with complex genomic profiles.

Soft tissue sarcomas (STS) with complex genomic profiles (50% of all STS) are predominantly composed of spindle cell/pleomorphic sarcomas, including leiomyosarcoma, myxofibrosarcoma, pleomorphic liposarcoma, pleomorphic rhabdomyosarcoma, malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor, angiosarcoma, extraskeletal osteosarcoma, and spindle cell/pleomorphic unclassified sarcoma (previously called spindle cell/pleomorphic malignant fibrous histiocytoma). These neoplasms show, characteristically, gains and losses of numerous chromosomes or chromosome regions, as well as amplifications. Many of them share recurrent aberrations (e.g., gain of 5p13-p15) that seem to play a significant role in tumor progression and/or metastatic dissemination. In this paper, we review the cytogenetic, molecular genetic, and clinicopathologic characteristics of the most common STS displaying complex genomic profiles. Features of diagnostic or prognostic relevance will be discussed when needed.

Gastric supply manipulation to modulate ghrelin production and enhance vascularization to the cardia: proof of the concept in a porcine model.

Introduction. Selective embolization of the left-gastric artery (LGA) reduces levels of ghrelin and achieves significant short-term weight loss. However, embolization of the LGA would prevent the performance of bariatric procedures because the high-risk leakage area (gastroesophageal junction [GEJ]) would be devascularized. Aim. To assess an alternative vascular approach to the modulation of ghrelin levels and generate a blood flow manipulation, consequently increasing the vascular supply to the GEJ. Materials and methods. A total of 6 pigs underwent a laparoscopic clipping of the left gastroepiploic artery. Preoperative and postoperative CT angiographies were performed. Ghrelin levels were assessed perioperatively and then once per week for 3 weeks. Reactive oxygen species (ROS; expressed as ROS/mg of dry weight [DW]), mitochondria respiratory rate, and capillary lactates were assessed before and 1 hour after clipping (T0 and T1) and after 3 weeks of survival (T2), on seromuscular biopsies. A celiac trunk angiography was performed at 3 weeks. Results. Mean (±standard deviation) ghrelin levels were significantly reduced 1 hour after clipping (1902 ± 307.8 pg/mL vs 1084 ± 680.0; P = .04) and at 3 weeks (954.5 ± 473.2 pg/mL; P = .01). Mean ROS levels were statistically significantly decreased at the cardia at T2 when compared with T0 (0.018 ± 0.006 mg/DW vs 0.02957 ± 0.0096 mg/DW; P = .01) and T1 (0.0376 ± 0.008mg/DW; P = .007). Capillary lactates were significantly decreased after 3 weeks, and the mitochondria respiratory rate remained constant over time at the cardia and pylorus, showing significant regional differences. Conclusions. Manipulation of the gastric flow targeting the gastroepiploic arcade induces ghrelin reduction. An endovascular approach is currently under evaluation.

Lowering blood alcohol content levels to save lives: The european experience

Road safety has become an increasing concern in developed countries due to the significant amount of mortal victims and the economic losses derived. Only in 2005 these losses rose to 200.000 million euros, a significant amount - approximately the 2% of its GDP- that easily justifies any public intervention. One tool used by governments to face this challenge is the enactment of stricter policies and regulations. Since drunk driving is one of the most important concerns of public authorities on this field, several European countries decided to lower their illegal Blood Alcohol Content levels to 0.5 mg/ml during the last decade. This study evaluates for the first time the effectiveness of this transition using European panel-based data (CARE) for the period 1991-2003 using the Differences-in-Differences method in a fixed effects estimation that allows for any pattern of correlation (Cluster-Robust). My results show the existence of positive impacts on certain groups of road users and for the whole population when the policy is accompanied by some enforcement interventions. Moreover, a time lag of more than two years is found in that effectiveness. Finally, I also assert the importance of controlling for serial correlation in the evaluation of this kind of policies.

Estudio de las capas de acoplamiento y alternativas al reflector de Bragg en estructuras BAW-CRF

Las capas de acoplamiento son un elemento clave en los dispositivos BAW CRF. El factor de acoplamiento K de estas capas permite el diseño de una determinada respuesta. Debido al limitado número de materiales con las que implementarlas, las soluciones que utilizan capas de λ/4 ofrecen un rango discreto de K. Por otra parte, el reflector de Bragg es un mecanismo de aislamiento mecánico entre el sustrato y la estructura BAW que está formado por capas alternas de alta y baja impedancia acústica de λ/4. El problema que presenta es la reducción del factor de calidad asociado a las pérdidas producida por las ondas shear. Este proyecto presenta un método para la obtención de un rango continuo de factores de acoplamiento y estudia la mejora del factor de calidad de las estructuras BAW con reflector de Bragg partiendo de dos materiales con alta y baja impedancia acústica.

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy with or without panitumumab in patients with wild-type KRAS, locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC): a randomized, multicenter, phase II trial SAKK 41/07.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a randomized, phase II, multicenter study to evaluate the anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mAb panitumumab (P) in combination with chemoradiotherapy (CRT) with standard-dose capecitabine as neoadjuvant treatment for wild-type KRAS locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with wild-type KRAS, T3-4 and/or N+ LARC were randomly assigned to receive CRT with or without P (6 mg/kg). The primary end-point was pathological near-complete or complete tumor response (pNC/CR), defined as grade 3 (pNCR) or 4 (pCR) histological regression by Dworak classification (DC). RESULTS: Forty of 68 patients were randomly assigned to P + CRT and 28 to CRT. pNC/CR was achieved in 21 patients (53%) treated with P + CRT [95% confidence interval (CI) 36%-69%] versus 9 patients (32%) treated with CRT alone (95% CI: 16%-52%). pCR was achieved in 4 (10%) and 5 (18%) patients, and pNCR in 17 (43%) and 4 (14%) patients. In immunohistochemical analysis, most DC 3 cells were not apoptotic. The most common grade ≥3 toxic effects in the P + CRT/CRT arm were diarrhea (10%/6%) and anastomotic leakage (15%/4%). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of panitumumab to neoadjuvant CRT in patients with KRAS wild-type LARC resulted in a high pNC/CR rate, mostly grade 3 DC. The results of both treatment arms exceeded prespecified thresholds. The addition of panitumumab increased toxicity.

An interregional input-output analysis of the pollution content of trade flows and environmental trade balances between five states in the US Mid-West

In this paper we attempt an empirical application of the multi-region input-output (MRIO) method in order to enumerate the pollution content of interregional trade flows between five Mid-West regions/states in the US –Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin – and the rest of the US. This allows us to analyse some very important issues in terms of the nature and significance of interregional environmental spillovers within the US Mid-West and the existence of pollution ‘trade balances’ between states. Our results raise questions in terms of the extent to which authorities at State level can control local emissions where they are limited in the way some emissions can be controlled, particularly with respect to changes in demand elsewhere in the Mid-West and US. This implies a need for policy co-ordination between national and state level authorities in the US to meet emissions reductions targets. The existence of an environmental trade balances between states also raises issues in terms of net losses/gains in terms of pollutants as a result of interregional trade within the US and whether, if certain activities can be carried out using less polluting technology in one region relative to others, it is better for the US as a whole if this type of relationship exists.

The Distributional Consequences of Supply-Side Reforms in General Equilibrium

This paper addresses the issue on whether tax reforms consisten with lower public debt-to-GDP in the long-run can lead to a more efficient and equitable economy. To this end we solve a heterogeneous agent model comprised of a government, a representative capitalist and representative skilled and unskilled workers, under both rational expectations and adaptive learning. Our main ndings are that (i) reductions in capital taxation, while bene cial at the aggregate level, lead to increased inequality mainly due to the substitutability of un- skilled labour and capital; (ii) a fall in taxation for skilled labour is Pareto improving, which is largely explained by its complementarity with the other factor inputs; (iii) all agents would prefer increasing the tax rate on capital to increasing the tax rate on skilled and un- skilled labour since it leads to relatively lower welfare losses; and (iv) heterogeneity in initial beliefs under adaptive learning quantitatively matters for welfare.

Accounting for the dead in the longitudinal analysis of income-related health inequalities

This paper develops an accounting framework to consider the effect of deaths on the longitudinal analysis of income-related health inequalities. Ignoring deaths or using inverse probability weights (IPWs) to re-weight the sample for mortality-related attrition can produce misleading results, since to do so would be to disregard the most extreme of all health outcomes. Incorporating deaths into the longitudinal analysis of income-related health inequalities provides a more complete picture in terms of the evaluation of health changes in respect to socioeconomic status. We illustrate our work by investigating health mobility in Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) as measured by the SF6D from 1999 till 2004 using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). We show that for Scottish males explicitly accounting for the dead, rather than using IPWs to account for mortality-related attrition, changes the direction of the relationship between relative health changes and initial income position, while for other population groups it increases the strength of this relationship by up to 14 times. When deaths are explicitly incorporated into the analysis it is found that over this five year period for both Scotland and England & Wales the relative health changes were significantly regressive such that the poor experienced a larger share of the health losses relative to their initial share of health and a large amount of this was related to mortality.

Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war

We propose an elementary theory of wars fought by fully rational contenders. Two parties play a Markov game that combines stages of bargaining with stages where one side has the ability to impose surrender on the other. Under uncertainty and incomplete information, in the unique equilibrium of the game, long confrontations occur: war arises when reality disappoints initial (rational) optimism, and it persist longer when both agents are optimists but reality proves both wrong. Bargaining proposals that are rejected initially might eventually be accepted after several periods of confrontation. We provide an explicit computation of the equilibrium, evaluating the probability of war, and its expected losses as a function of i) the costs of confrontation, ii) the asymmetry of the split imposed under surrender, and iii) the strengths of contenders at attack and defense. Changes in these parameters display non-monotonic effects.

The distributional consequences of tax reforms under market distortions

In this paper we examine the importance of imperfect competition in product and labour markets in determining the long-run welfare e¤ects of tax reforms assuming agent heterogeneneity in capital hold- ings. Each of these market failures, independently, results in welfare losses for at least a segment of the population, after a capital tax cut and a concurrent labour tax increase. However, when combined in a realistic calibration to the UK economy, they imply that a capital tax cut will be Pareto improving in the long run. Consistent with the the- ory of second-best, the two distortions in this context work to correct the negative distributional e¤ects of a capital tax cut that each one, on its own, creates.

Payoff levels, loss avoidance, and equilibrium selection in the Stag Hunt: an experimental study

Game theorists typically assume that changing a game’s payoff levels—by adding the same constant to, or subtracting it from, all payoffs—should not affect behavior. While this invariance is an implication of the theory when payoffs mirror expected utilities, it is an empirical question when the “payoffs” are actually money amounts. In particular, if individuals treat monetary gains and losses differently, then payoff–level changes may matter when they result in positive payoffs becoming negative, or vice versa. We report the results of a human–subjects experiment designed to test for two types of loss avoidance: certain–loss avoidance (avoiding a strategy leading to a sure loss, in favor of an alternative that might lead to a gain) and possible–loss avoidance (avoiding a strategy leading to a possible loss, in favor of an alternative that leads to a sure gain). Subjects in the experiment play three versions of Stag Hunt, which are identical up to the level of payoffs, under a variety of treatments. We find differences in behavior across the three versions of Stag Hunt; these differences are hard to detect in the first round of play, but grow over time. When significant, the differences we find are in the direction predicted by certain– and possible–loss avoidance. Our results carry implications for games with multiple equilibria, and for theories that attempt to select among equilibria in such games.

A Framework for Analyzing Language and Welfare

The paper proposes a general model that will encompass trade and social benefits of a common language, a preference for a variety of languages, the fundamental role of translators, an emotional attachment to maternal language, and the threat that globalization poses to the vast majority of languages. With respect to people’s emotional attachment, the model considers minorities to suffer losses from the subordinate status of their language. In addition, the model treats the threat to minority language as coming from the failure of the parents in the minority to transmit their maternal language (durably) to their children. Some familiar results occur. In particular, we encounter the usual social inefficiencies of decentralized solutions to language learning when the sole benefits of the learning are communicative benefits (though translation intervenes). However, these social inefficiencies assume a totally different air when the con-sumer gains of variety are brought in. One fundamental aim of the paper is to bring together contributions to the economics of language from labor economics, network externalities and international trade that are typically treated separately.