Local Trigonometric Methods for Time Series Smoothing.

The thesis is concerned with local trigonometric regression methods. The aim was to develop a method for extraction of cyclical components in time series. The main results of the thesis are the following. First, a generalization of the filter proposed by Christiano and Fitzgerald is furnished for the smoothing of ARIMA(p,d,q) process. Second, a local trigonometric filter is built, with its statistical properties. Third, they are discussed the convergence properties of trigonometric estimators, and the problem of choosing the order of the model. A large scale simulation experiment has been designed in order to assess the performance of the proposed models and methods. The results show that local trigonometric regression may be a useful tool for periodic time series analysis.

Von der geographischen Analyse über die Bestandsaufnahme der anzutreffenden Krankheiten und der Anwendung traditioneller Medizin zu einem geomedizinischen Informationssystem am Beispiel einer Bergregion im Kabupaten Sikka (Insel Flores, Indonesien)

Im Rahmen der interdisziplinären Zusammenarbeit zur Durchsetzung des »Menschenrecht Gesundheit« wurde ein geomedizinisches Informationssystem erstellt, das auf die nordexponierten Bergdörfer zwischen 350 m ü. NN und 450 m ü. NN des Kabupaten Sikka auf der Insel Flores in Indonesien anwendbar ist. Es wurde eine Analyse der Zeit-Raum-Dimension der Gesundheitssituation in Wololuma und Napun Lawan - exemplarisch für die nordexponierten Bergdörfer - durchgeführt. Im Untersuchungsraum wurden Gesundheitsgefahren und Gesundheitsrisiken analysiert, Zonen der Gefahren herausgearbeitet und Risikoräume bewertet. Trotz eines El Niño-Jahres waren prinzipielle Bezüge der Krankheiten zum jahreszeitlichen Rhythmus der wechselfeuchten Tropen zu erkennen. Ausgehend von der Vermutung, dass Krankheiten mit spezifischen Klimaelementen korrelieren, wurden Zusammenhänge gesucht. Für jede Krankheit wurden Makro-, Meso- und Mikrorisikoräume ermittelt. Somit wurden Krankheitsherde lokalisiert. Die Generalisierung des geomedizinischen Informationssystems lässt sich auf der Makroebene auf die nordexponierten Bergdörfer zwischen 350 m ü. NN und 450 m ü. NN des Kabupaten Sikka übertragen. Aus einer Vielzahl von angetroffenen Krankheiten wurden sechs Krankheiten selektiert. Aufgrund der Häufigkeitszahlen ergibt sich für das Gesundheitsrisiko der Bevölkerung eine Prioritätenliste:rn- Dermatomykosen (ganzjährig)rn- Typhus (ganzjährig)rn- Infektionen der unteren Atemwege (Übergangszeit)rn- Infektionen der oberen Atemwege (Übergangszeit)rn- Malaria (Regenzeit)rn- Struma (ganzjährig)rnDie Hauptrisikogruppe der Makroebene ist die feminine Bevölkerung. Betroffen sind weibliche Kleinkinder von null bis sechs Jahren und Frauen ab 41 Jahren. Die erstellten Karten des zeitlichen und räumlichen Verbreitungsmusters der Krankheiten und des Zugangs zu Gesundheitsdienstleistungen dienen Entscheidungsträgern als Entscheidungshilfe für den Einsatz der Mittel zur Primärprävention. Die Geographie als Wissenschaft mit ihren Methoden und dem Zeit-Raum-Modell hat gezeigt, dass sie die Basis für die interdisziplinäre Forschung darstellt. Die interdisziplinäre Zusammenarbeit zur Gesundheitsforschung im Untersuchungszeitraum 2009 hat sich bewährt und muss weiter ausgebaut werden. Die vorgeschlagenen Lösungsmöglichkeiten dienen der Minimierung des Gesundheitsrisikos und der Gesundheitsvorsorge. Da die Systemzusammenhänge der Ätiologie der einzelnen Krankheiten sehr komplex sind, besteht noch immer sehr großer Forschungsbedarf. rnDas Ergebnis der vorliegenden Untersuchung zeigt, dass Wasser in jeder Form die primäre Ursache für das Gesundheitsrisiko der Bergdörfer im Kabupaten Sikka auf der Insel Flores in Indonesien ist.rnDer Zugang zu Wasser ist unerlässlich für die Verwirklichung des »Menschenrecht Gesundheit«. Das Recht auf Wasser besagt, dass jeder Mensch Zugang zu nicht gesundheitsgefährdendem, ausreichendem und bezahlbarem Wasser haben soll. Alle Staaten dieser Erde sollten sich dieser Forderung verpflichtet fühlen.rn

Electroweak precision observables and effective four-fermion interactions in warped extra dimensions

In this thesis, we study the phenomenology of selected observables in the context of the Randall-Sundrum scenario of a compactified warpedrnextra dimension. Gauge and matter fields are assumed to live in the whole five-dimensional space-time, while the Higgs sector is rnlocalized on the infrared boundary. An effective four-dimensional description is obtained via Kaluza-Klein decomposition of the five dimensionalrnquantum fields. The symmetry breaking effects due to the Higgs sector are treated exactly, and the decomposition of the theory is performedrnin a covariant way. We develop a formalism, which allows for a straight-forward generalization to scenarios with an extended gauge group comparedrnto the Standard Model of elementary particle physics. As an application, we study the so-called custodial Randall-Sundrum model and compare the resultsrnto that of the original formulation. rnWe present predictions for electroweak precision observables, the Higgs production cross section at the LHC, the forward-backward asymmetryrnin top-antitop production at the Tevatron, as well as the width difference, the CP-violating phase, and the semileptonic CP asymmetry in B_s decays.

Probabilistic Recursion Theory and Implicit Computational Complexity

In this thesis we provide a characterization of probabilistic computation in itself, from a recursion-theoretical perspective, without reducing it to deterministic computation. More specifically, we show that probabilistic computable functions, i.e., those functions which are computed by Probabilistic Turing Machines (PTM), can be characterized by a natural generalization of Kleene's partial recursive functions which includes, among initial functions, one that returns identity or successor with probability 1/2. We then prove the equi-expressivity of the obtained algebra and the class of functions computed by PTMs. In the the second part of the thesis we investigate the relations existing between our recursion-theoretical framework and sub-recursive classes, in the spirit of Implicit Computational Complexity. More precisely, endowing predicative recurrence with a random base function is proved to lead to a characterization of polynomial-time computable probabilistic functions.

Rigorous results in Spin Glasses and Monomer-Dimer systems

In this work I reported recent results in the field of Statistical Mechanics of Equilibrium, and in particular in Spin Glass models and Monomer Dimer models . We start giving the mathematical background and the general formalism for Spin (Disordered) Models with some of their applications to physical and mathematical problems. Next we move on general aspects of the theory of spin glasses, in particular to the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model which is of fundamental interest for the work. In Chapter 3, we introduce the Multi-species Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model (MSK), we prove the existence of the thermodynamical limit and the Guerra's Bound for the quenched pressure together with a detailed analysis of the annealed and the replica symmetric regime. The result is a multidimensional generalization of the Parisi's theory. Finally we brie y illustrate the strategy of the Panchenko's proof of the lower bound. In Chapter 4 we discuss the Aizenmann-Contucci and the Ghirlanda-Guerra identities for a wide class of Spin Glass models. As an example of application, we discuss the role of these identities in the proof of the lower bound. In Chapter 5 we introduce the basic mathematical formalism of Monomer Dimer models. We introduce a Gaussian representation of the partition function that will be fundamental in the rest of the work. In Chapter 6, we introduce an interacting Monomer-Dimer model. Its exact solution is derived and a detailed study of its analytical properties and related physical quantities is performed. In Chapter 7, we introduce a quenched randomness in the Monomer Dimer model and show that, under suitable conditions the pressure is a self averaging quantity. The main result is that, if we consider randomness only in the monomer activity, the model is exactly solvable.

Il teatro comunitario in Argentina: paradigmi e pratiche tra identità e memoria. Con un focus sul caso italiano

La tesi indaga l’esperienza del teatro comunitario, una delle espressioni artistiche più originali e pressoché sconosciute nel panorama teatrale novecentesco, che ha avuto in Argentina un punto di riferimento fondamentale. Questo fenomeno, che oggi conta cinquanta compagnie dal nord al sud del paese latinoamericano, e qualcuna in Europa, affonda le sue radici nella Buenos Aires della post-dittatura, in una società che continua a risentire degli esiti del terrore di Stato. Il teatro comunitario nasce dalla necessità di un gruppo di persone di un determinato quartiere di riunirsi in comunità e comunicare attraverso il teatro, con l'obiettivo di costruire un significato sociale e politico. La prima questione messa a fuoco riguarda la definizione della categoria di studio: quali sono i criteri che consentono di identificare, all’interno della molteplicità di pratiche teatrali collettive, qualcosa di sicuramente riconducibile a questo fenomeno. Nel corso dell’indagine si è rivelata fondamentale la comprensione dei conflitti dell’esperienza reale e l’individuazione dei caratteri comuni, al fine di procedere a un esercizio di generalizzazione. La ricerca ha imposto la necessità di comprendere i meccanismi mnemonici e identitari che hanno determinato e, a loro volta, sono stati riattivati dalla nascita di questa esperienza. L’analisi, supportata da studi filosofici e antropologici, è volta a comprendere come sia cambiata la percezione della corporeità in un contesto di sparizione dei corpi, dove il lavoro sulla memoria riguarda in particolare i corpi assenti (desaparecidos). L’originalità del tema ha imposto la riflessione su un approccio metodologico in grado di esercitare una adeguata funzione euristica, e di fungere da modello per studi futuri. Sono stati pertanto scavalcati i confini degli studi teatrologici, con particolare attenzione alle svolte culturali e storiche che hanno preceduto e affiancato l’evoluzione del fenomeno.

Models and Algorihtm for the Optimization of Real-World Routing and Logistics Problems

Logistics involves planning, managing, and organizing the flows of goods from the point of origin to the point of destination in order to meet some requirements. Logistics and transportation aspects are very important and represent a relevant costs for producing and shipping companies, but also for public administration and private citizens. The optimization of resources and the improvement in the organization of operations is crucial for all branches of logistics, from the operation management to the transportation. As we will have the chance to see in this work, optimization techniques, models, and algorithms represent important methods to solve the always new and more complex problems arising in different segments of logistics. Many operation management and transportation problems are related to the optimization class of problems called Vehicle Routing Problems (VRPs). In this work, we consider several real-world deterministic and stochastic problems that are included in the wide class of the VRPs, and we solve them by means of exact and heuristic methods. We treat three classes of real-world routing and logistics problems. We deal with one of the most important tactical problems that arises in the managing of the bike sharing systems, that is the Bike sharing Rebalancing Problem (BRP). We propose models and algorithms for real-world earthwork optimization problems. We describe the 3DP process and we highlight several optimization issues in 3DP. Among those, we define the problem related to the tool path definition in the 3DP process, the 3D Routing Problem (3DRP), which is a generalization of the arc routing problem. We present an ILP model and several heuristic algorithms to solve the 3DRP.

Predictability in Social Science, The statistical mechanics approach.

The subject of this work concerns the study of the immigration phenomenon, with emphasis on the aspects related to the integration of an immigrant population in a hosting one. Aim of this work is to show the forecasting ability of a recent finding where the behavior of integration quantifiers was analyzed and investigated with a mathematical model of statistical physics origins (a generalization of the monomer dimer model). After providing a detailed literature review of the model, we show that not only such a model is able to identify the social mechanism that drives a particular integration process, but it also provides correct forecast. The research reported here proves that the proposed model of integration and its forecast framework are simple and effective tools to reduce uncertainties about how integration phenomena emerge and how they are likely to develop in response to increased migration levels in the future.

Chirale effektive Feldtheorie mit Vektormesonen : vom elektromagnetischen Formfaktor zur virtuellen Compton-Streuung

Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Modellierung niederenergetischer elektromagnetischer und hadronischer Prozesse im Rahmen einer manifest lorentzinvarianten, chiralen effektiven Feldtheorie unter expliziter, dynamischer Berücksichtigung resonanter, das heißt vektormesonischer Freiheitsgrade. Diese effektive Theorie kann daher als Approximation der grundlegenden Quantenchromodynamik bei kleinen Energien verstanden werden. Besonderes Augenmerk wird dabei auf das verwendete Zähl- sowie Renormierungschema gelegt, wodurch eine konsistente Beschreibung mesonischer Prozesse bis zu Energien von etwa 1GeV ermöglicht wird. Das verwendete Zählschema beruht dabei im Wesentlichen auf einem Argument für großes N_c (Anzahl der Farbfreiheitsgrade) und lässt eine äquivalente Behandlung von Goldstonebosonen (Pionen) und Resonanzen (Rho- und Omegamesonen) zu. Als Renormierungsschema wird das für (bezüglich der starken Wechselwirkung) instabile Teilchen besonders geeignete complex-mass scheme als Erweiterung des extended on-mass-shell scheme verwendet, welches in Kombination mit dem BPHZ-Renormierungsverfahren (benannt nach Bogoliubov, Parasiuk, Hepp und Zimmermann) ein leistungsfähiges Konzept zur Berechnung von Quantenkorrekturen in dieser chiralen effektiven Feldtheorie darstellt. Sämtliche vorgenommenen Rechnungen schließen Terme der chiralen Ordnung vier sowie einfache Schleifen in Feynman-Diagrammen ein. Betrachtet werden unter anderem der Vektorformfaktor des Pions im zeitartigen Bereich, die reelle Compton-Streuung (beziehungsweise Photonenfusion) im neutralen und geladenen Kanal sowie die virtuelle Compton-Streuung, eingebettet in die Elektron-Positron-Annihilation. Zur Extraktion der Niederenergiekopplungskonstanten der Theorie wird letztendlich eine Reihe experimenteller Datensätze verschiedenartiger Observablen verwendet. Die hier entwickelten Methoden und Prozeduren - und insbesondere deren technische Implementierung - sind sehr allgemeiner Natur und können daher auch an weitere Problemstellungen aus diesem Gebiet der niederenergetischen Quantenchromodynamik angepasst werden.

Statistical shape modeling of pathological scoliotic vertebrae: A comparative analysis

Statistical shape models (SSMs) have been used widely as a basis for segmenting and interpreting complex anatomical structures. The robustness of these models are sensitive to the registration procedures, i.e., establishment of a dense correspondence across a training data set. In this work, two SSMs based on the same training data set of scoliotic vertebrae, and registration procedures were compared. The first model was constructed based on the original binary masks without applying any image pre- and post-processing, and the second was obtained by means of a feature preserving smoothing method applied to the original training data set, followed by a standard rasterization algorithm. The accuracies of the correspondences were assessed quantitatively by means of the maximum of the mean minimum distance (MMMD) and Hausdorf distance (H(D)). Anatomical validity of the models were quantified by means of three different criteria, i.e., compactness, specificity, and model generalization ability. The objective of this study was to compare quasi-identical models based on standard metrics. Preliminary results suggest that the MMMD distance and eigenvalues are not sensitive metrics for evaluating the performance and robustness of SSMs.

Development of a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engine electronic control module tables – Part 1: data requirements, processing, and analysis

This is the first part of a study investigating a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engines. The motivation is to populate hundreds of parameters (which can be calibrated) in a methodical and optimum manner by using model-based optimization in conjunction with the manual process so that, relative to the manual process used by itself, a significant improvement in transient emissions and fuel consumption and a sizable reduction in calibration time and test cell requirements is achieved. Empirical transient modelling and optimization has been addressed in the second part of this work, while the required data for model training and generalization are the focus of the current work. Transient and steady-state data from a turbocharged multicylinder diesel engine have been examined from a model training perspective. A single-cylinder engine with external air-handling has been used to expand the steady-state data to encompass transient parameter space. Based on comparative model performance and differences in the non-parametric space, primarily driven by a high engine difference between exhaust and intake manifold pressures (ΔP) during transients, it has been recommended that transient emission models should be trained with transient training data. It has been shown that electronic control module (ECM) estimates of transient charge flow and the exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) fraction cannot be accurate at the high engine ΔP frequently encountered during transient operation, and that such estimates do not account for cylinder-to-cylinder variation. The effects of high engine ΔP must therefore be incorporated empirically by using transient data generated from a spectrum of transient calibrations. Specific recommendations on how to choose such calibrations, how many data to acquire, and how to specify transient segments for data acquisition have been made. Methods to process transient data to account for transport delays and sensor lags have been developed. The processed data have then been visualized using statistical means to understand transient emission formation. Two modes of transient opacity formation have been observed and described. The first mode is driven by high engine ΔP and low fresh air flowrates, while the second mode is driven by high engine ΔP and high EGR flowrates. The EGR fraction is inaccurately estimated at both modes, while EGR distribution has been shown to be present but unaccounted for by the ECM. The two modes and associated phenomena are essential to understanding why transient emission models are calibration dependent and furthermore how to choose training data that will result in good model generalization.

Study protocol: Transition from localized low back pain to chronic widespread pain in general practice: identification of risk factors, preventive factors and key elements for treatment--a cohort study

Background Chronic localized pain syndromes, especially chronic low back pain (CLBP), are common reasons for consultation in general practice. In some cases chronic localized pain syndromes can appear in combination with chronic widespread pain (CWP). Numerous studies have shown a strong association between CWP and several physical and psychological factors. These studies are population-based cross-sectional and do not allow for assessing chronology. There are very few prospective studies that explore the predictors for the onset of CWP, where the main focus is identifying risk factors for the CWP incidence. Until now there have been no studies focusing on preventive factors keeping patients from developing CWP. Our aim is to perform a cross sectional study on the epidemiology of CLBP and CWP in general practice and to look for distinctive features regarding resources like resilience, self-efficacy and coping strategies. A subsequent cohort study is designed to identify the risk and protective factors of pain generalization (development of CWP) in primary care for CLBP patients. Methods/Design Fifty-nine general practitioners recruit consecutively, during a 5 month period, all patients who are consulting their family doctor because of chronic low back pain (where the pain is lasted for 3 months). Patients are asked to fill out a questionnaire on pain anamnesis, pain-perception, co-morbidities, therapy course, medication, socio demographic data and psychosomatic symptoms. We assess resilience, coping resources, stress management and self-efficacy as potential protective factors for pain generalization. Furthermore, we raise risk factors for pain generalization like anxiety, depression, trauma and critical life events. During a twelve months follow up period a cohort of CLBP patients without CWP will be screened on a regular basis (3 monthly) for pain generalization (outcome: incident CWP). Discussion This cohort study will be the largest study which prospectively analyzes predictors for transition from CLBP to CWP in primary care setting. In contrast to the typically researched risk factors, which increase the probability of pain generalization, this study also focus intensively on protective factors, which decrease the probability of pain generalization.

Dysphagia in elderly women: consider tetanus

BACKGROUND: Dysphagia is seldom caused by tetanus; however, it is a common symptom of tetanus. Treating patients with tetanus is a rare event in industrialized countries and awareness is needed to recognize early signs of this serious disease. In Switzerland, the most recently reported tetanus cases occurred in elderly women with insufficient seroprotection. PATIENTS: We report on three elderly women presenting with dysphagia as an initial symptom of tetanus. RESULTS: Generalized tetanus was diagnosed in two patients upon admission, the third presented with cephalic tetanus with secondary generalization. All three patients had undetectable levels of tetanus antibodies and had no documented prior tetanus immunizations. Cultures of wound swabs grew Clostridium tetani in all cases. Electromyography was highly suggestive for tetanus in two patients. Treatment involved mechanical ventilation, intravenous benzodiazepine and metronidazole therapy, and active and passive tetanus immunization. The disease had a favorable outcome in two cases and was fatal in one. CONCLUSION: Tetanus remains a threat in patients with insufficient seroprotection and efforts are needed to improve tetanus immunization in these individuals. Tetanus should be considered in the differential diagnosis of dysphagia.

Choosing Smoothness Parameters for Smoothing Splines by Minimizing and Estimate of Risk

Smoothing splines are a popular approach for non-parametric regression problems. We use periodic smoothing splines to fit a periodic signal plus noise model to data for which we assume there are underlying circadian patterns. In the smoothing spline methodology, choosing an appropriate smoothness parameter is an important step in practice. In this paper, we draw a connection between smoothing splines and REACT estimators that provides motivation for the creation of criteria for choosing the smoothness parameter. The new criteria are compared to three existing methods, namely cross-validation, generalized cross-validation, and generalization of maximum likelihood criteria, by a Monte Carlo simulation and by an application to the study of circadian patterns. For most of the situations presented in the simulations, including the practical example, the new criteria out-perform the three existing criteria.

Locally Efficient Estimation with Current Status Data and High Dimensional Covariates

In biostatistical applications, interest often focuses on the estimation of the distribution of time T between two consecutive events. If the initial event time is observed and the subsequent event time is only known to be larger or smaller than an observed monitoring time, then the data is described by the well known singly-censored current status model, also known as interval censored data, case I. We extend this current status model by allowing the presence of a time-dependent process, which is partly observed and allowing C to depend on T through the observed part of this time-dependent process. Because of the high dimension of the covariate process, no globally efficient estimators exist with a good practical performance at moderate sample sizes. We follow the approach of Robins and Rotnitzky (1992) by modeling the censoring variable, given the time-variable and the covariate-process, i.e., the missingness process, under the restriction that it satisfied coarsening at random. We propose a generalization of the simple current status estimator of the distribution of T and of smooth functionals of the distribution of T, which is based on an estimate of the missingness. In this estimator the covariates enter only through the estimate of the missingness process. Due to the coarsening at random assumption, the estimator has the interesting property that if we estimate the missingness process more nonparametrically, then we improve its efficiency. We show that by local estimation of an optimal model or optimal function of the covariates for the missingness process, the generalized current status estimator for smooth functionals become locally efficient; meaning it is efficient if the right model or covariate is consistently estimated and it is consistent and asymptotically normal in general. Estimation of the optimal model requires estimation of the conditional distribution of T, given the covariates. Any (prior) knowledge of this conditional distribution can be used at this stage without any risk of losing root-n consistency. We also propose locally efficient one step estimators. Finally, we show some simulation results.