Belarus at a crossroads. Bruegel Policy Contribution Issue 2016/02 January 2016

Highlights: • Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Belarus has maintained a largely non-market economic system. This did not prevent rapid growth of its economy over a sustained period up to 2011. However, the period of economic growth in Belarus seems to be over.The factors that underpinned Belarus’s growth, mainly the beneficial external environment, have gradually disappeared. As a result, the country is confronted by the need to start the far-reaching programme of market-oriented economic reforms and macroeconomic stabilisation which it tried to avoid for so long. Reform will not be easy, economically and politically. • The potential hardship facing Belarus could be at least partly cushioned by external assistance, in the first instance from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. However, the IMF has relatively fresh memories of the failure of its 2009-10 Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with Belarus, which provided substantial balance-of payments support, but which was derailed by its too-narrow focus on monetary and fiscal quantitative performance criteria, and by insufficient reform commitment on the Belarusian side. Other donors, such as the European Union, might be reluctant to offer assistance as long as Belarus does not improve its poor human rights record and start some political reforms.

Rethinking asylum distribution in the EU: Shall we start with the facts? CEPS Commentary, 17 June 2016

Ten months of what has alternatively been called a "refugee crisis", a "migrant crisis" and a "migrant and asylum crisis" in the EU has fuelled an exceptionally vivid discussion about statistics. All member states are required to provide Eurostat, the EU’s statistical agency, with data on immigration and asylum in accordance with a regulation that sets out clear and concise rules on what data must be submitted.[1] The purpose of the regulation is to ensure that the data on migration and asylum the member states provide to Eurostat for publication is comparable across all EU countries.

Ash layers, hyaloclastite, and alteration of basaltic glass at DSDP Leg 65 Holes

Three types of tephra deposits were recovered on Leg 65 of the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) from three drill sites at the mouth of the Gulf of California: (1) a series of white ash layers at Sites 483, 484, and 485; (2) a layer of plagioclase- phyric sideromelane shards at Site 483; and (3) an indurated, cross-bedded hyaloclastite in Hole 483B. The ash layers in (1) are composed of colorless, fresh rhyolitic glass shards with minor dacitic and rare basaltic shards. These are thought to be derived from explosive volcanoes on the Mexican mainland. Most of the shards in (2) are fresh, but some show marginal to complete alteration to palagonite. The composition of the glass is that of a MORB-type tholeiite, low in Fe and moderately high in Ti, and possibly erupted from off-axis seamounts. Basaltic glass shards occurring in silt about 45 meters above the basement at Site 484 A in the Tamayo Fracture Zone show a distinctly alkalic composition similar to that of the single basement basalt specimen drilled at this site. The hyaloclastite in (3) is made up chiefly of angular sideromelane shards altered to smectite and zeolites (mainly phillipsite) and minor admixtures of terrigenous silt. A very high K and Ba content indicates significant uptake of at least these elements from seawater. Nevertheless, the unusual chemical composition of the underlying massive basalt flow is believed to be reflected in that of the hyaloclastite. This is a powerful argument for interpreting the massive basalt as a surface flow rather than an intrusion. Glass alteration is different in the glassy margins of flows than in thicker glassy pillow rinds. Also, it appears to proceed faster in coarse- than fine-grained sediments.

Benthic foraminiferal assemblages and paleoproductivity reconstructions for the last 550 kyr of the Ontong Java Plateau, western equatorial Pacific

We analyzed foraminiferal and nannofossil assemblages and stable isotopes in samples from ODP Hole 807A on the Ontong Java Plateau in order to evaluate productivity and carbonate dissolution cycles over the last 550 kyr (kilo year) in the western equatorial Pacific. Our results indicate that productivity was generally higher in glacials than during interglacials, and gradually increased since MIS 13. Carbonate dissolution was weak in deglacial intervals, but often reached a maximum during interglacial to glacial transitions. Carbonate cycles in the western equatorial Pacific were mainly influenced by changes of deep-water properties rather than by local primary productivity. Fluctuations of the estimated thermocline depth were not related to glacial to interglacial alternations, but changed distinctly at ~280 kyr. Before that time the thermocline was relatively shallow and its depth fluctuated at a comparatively high amplitude and low frequency. After 280 kyr, the thermocline was deeper, and its fluctuations were at lower amplitude and higher frequency. These different patterns in productivity and thermocline variability suggest that thermocline dynamics probably were not a controlling factor of biological productivity in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean. In this region, upwelling, the influx of cool, nutrient-rich waters from the eastern equatorial Pacific or of fresh waters from rivers have probably never been important, and their influence on productivity has been negligible over the studied period. Variations in the inferred productivity in general are well correlated with fluctuations in the eolian flux as recorded in the northwestern Pacific, a proxy for the late Quaternary history of the central East Asian dust flux into the Pacific. Therefore, we suggest that the dust flux from the central East Asian continent may have been an important driver of productivity in the western Pacific.

(Table T1) Physical properties of minicores from ODP Leg 193 sites, PACMANUS field

Permeability of the ocean crust is one of the most crucial parameters for constraining submarine fluid flow systems. Active hydrothermal fields are dynamic areas where fluid flow strongly affects the geochemistry and biology of the surrounding environment. There have been few permeability measurements in these regions, especially in felsic-hosted hydrothermal systems. We present a data set of 38 permeability and porosity measurements from the PACMANUS hydrothermal field, an actively venting, felsic hydrothermal field in the eastern Manus Basin. Permeability was measured using a complex transient method on 2.54-cm minicores. Permeability varies greatly between the samples, spanning over five orders of magnitude. Permeability decreases with both depth and decreasing porosity. When the alteration intensity of individual samples is considered, relationships between depth and porosity and permeability become more clearly defined. For incompletely altered samples (defined as >5% fresh rock), permeability and porosity are constant with depth. For completely altered samples (defined as <5% fresh rock), permeability and porosity decrease with depth. On average, the permeability values from the PACMANUS hydrothermal field are greater than those in other submarine environments using similar core-scale laboratory measurements; the average permeability, 4.5 x 10-16 m**2, is two to four orders of magnitude greater than in other areas. Although the core-scale permeability is higher than in other seafloor environments, it is still too low to obtain the fluid velocities observed in the PACMANUS hydrothermal field based on simplified analytical calculations. It is likely that core-scale permeability measurements are not representative of bulk rock permeability of the hydrothermal system overall, and that the latter is predominantly fracture controlled.

Dissolved organic carbon in sediments of the central Arctic Ocean collected during POLARSTERN cruise ARK-XXVII/3 from August-September 2012

Marine organic matter (OM) sinks from surface waters to the seafloor via the biological pump. Benthic communities, which use this sedimented OM as energy and carbon source, produce dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the process of remineralization, enriching the sediment porewater with fresh DOM compounds. We hypothesized that in the oligotrophic deep Arctic basin the molecular signal of freshly deposited primary produced OM is restricted to the surface sediment pore waters which should differ from bottom water and deeper sediment pore water in DOM composition. This study focused on: 1) the molecular composition of the DOM in sediment pore waters of the deep Eurasian Arctic basins, 2) whether the signal of marine vs. terrigenous DOM is represented by different compounds preserved in the sediment pore waters and 3) whether there is any relation between Arctic Ocean ice cover and DOM composition. Molecular data, obtained via 15 Tesla Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometer, were correlated with environmental parameters by partial least square analysis. The fresher marine detrital OM signal from surface waters was limited to pore waters from < 5 cm sediment depth. The productive ice margin stations showed higher abundances of peptides, unsaturated aliphatics and saturated fatty acids formulae, indicative of fresh OM/pigments deposition, compared to northernmost stations which had stronger aromatic signals. This study contributes to the understanding of the coupling between the Arctic Ocean productivity and its depositional regime, and how it will be altered in response to sea ice retreat and increasing river runoff.

Analysis of foraminifera from the Tagus Estuary, Portugal

The distribution and microhabitat of living benthic fora- minifera (15 calcareous and 6 agglutinated) have been studied in two box cores from the Tagus Prodelta. Stable oxygen and carbon isotopes were analysed for eight different species from six surface samples from the Tagus Prodelta and Estuary. At the two box core stations, most of the living foraminifera were restricted to the oxygenated top cm of the sediment and generally show a shallow infaunal behavior. Those taxa are e.g. Rectuvigerina phlegeri, Stainforthia fusiformis and species of the genus Bolivina, which is the most abundant genus in the Tagus Prodelta. Infaunal species are found down to 10 cm depth, and some infaunal taxa, e.g. Bulimina marginata, Globobulimina auriculata and Nonionella turgida, inhabit the low oxic or anoxic sediments. The deep infaunal species are suggested to feed selectively, on refractory organic matter or on the bacterial stocks, while the opportunistic shallow infaunal species are believed to feed on fresh phytodetritus or labile organic matter. Our data show that there is a close connection between the concentration of foraminifera and the distribution of organic matter in the area. The highest abundance of living benthic foraminifera was found in sediments close to the Tagus river plume, where the sediments have relatively high organic carbon contents. The spatial distribution of the stable isotope values of different benthic foraminifera reflects the distribution of the low salinity and relatively high temperature water with high organic carbon fluxes within the Tagus Estuary.

(Table 1) Chemical composition and bulk densities of dolerites from ODP Hole 504B lower dikes

Chemical interactions between seawater and the oceanic crust have been widely investigated during recent years. However, most of these studies concern the uppermost volcanic part of the crust. The contribution of the underlying sheeted dike complex to the global budget of the oceans is inferred solely from some ophiolite studies and from the 500-m high-level dike section of DSDP/ODP 504B which was drilled in 1981. Hole 504B is the only place where a continuous and long (1260 m) section in the sheeted dike complex has been cored, and it is now regarded as a reference section for the upper oceanic crust. Many petrological and chemical data from these dolerites are available, including the relative proportions of veins, extensively altered adjacent rocks, and less altered 'host-rocks'. For these three reasons, considering the entire dike section penetrated by Hole 504B is a unique chance to study chemical fluxes related to hydrothermal alteration of this part of the oceanic crust. The calculation of any chemical flux implies knowledge of the chemical composition of the fresh precursor (protolith). Previously, mean compositions of glasses (=P1a) or basalts from the Hole 504B volcanics have been used as protoliths. In this paper, we calculate and discuss the use of various protoliths based on dolerites from Hole 504B. We show that the most adequate and realistic protolith is the mean of individual protoliths that we calculated from the acquisition, by automatic mode, of about 1000 microprobe analyses in each thin-section of dolerite from the Hole 504B lower dikes. Consequently, PFm is further used to calculate chemical fluxes in the dike section of Hole 504B. The chemical compositions of the host-rocks adjacent to alteration halos tend to converge to that of PFm with depth, except for Fe2O3t and TiO2. Because the volume percent of alteration halos increases with depth, the total fluxes related to these halos increase with depth. This explains why the mean flux (host-rocks+halos+veins) of the upper dikes is roughly similar to the mean flux of the lower dikes. During the alteration of the entire Hole 504B dike section, the dolerites gained relatively large quantities of Fe2O3t (+4.0 g/100 cm**3) and released much SiO2 (-6.8 g/100 cm**3), CaO (-5.8 g/100 cm**3), and TiO2 (1.6 g/100 cm**3), and minor Al2O3 (-0.7 g/100 cm**3) and MgO (-0.7 g/100 cm**3). We show the importance of the choice of the protolith in the calculation of chemical budget, particularly for elements showing low flux values. In Hole 504B, the Mg uptake by the volcanics during low temperature alteration added to the Mg release by the dikes gives a net flux of -0.07x10**14 g/year. We propose that part of the Mg uptake by the oceanic crust, which is necessary to compensate the rivers input (-1.33x10**14 g/year), occurs in the underlying gabbros and/or in sections which are altered such as Trinity and Troodos ophiolites. Compared with ophiolites, fluxes calculated for elements other than Mg for the entire crust are generally similar (in tendency, if not in absolute value) to that we obtained from Hole 504B.

Oxygen microprofiles and porewater chemistry in sediments of the Skagerrak

Sediment porewater oxygen profiles were measured with micro and needle electrodes in sediment cores of 27 stations in the Skagerrak (northeastern North Sea). Oxygen penetration depth ranged from 3 to 20 mm depth. Fluxes estimated from the oxygen gradients varied from 3 to 18 mmol m**-2 d**-1. Oxygen penetration and flux depend on water depth, but possibly more on the hydrological conditions, related to the import of fresh organic matter by primary production in the water column. Oxygen fluxes were not related to the total organic carbon (TOC) content of the sediments. Stations in the eastern part of the Skagerrak showed high burial rates of TOC. At 6 stations porewater chemistry of Fe, Mn and NO3- was strongly associated with the oxygen distribution. The average relative contribution of terminal electron acceptors to carbon mineralisation was estimated at 85% for O2, 0.5% for Mn, 4.5% for [NO3]3-, 1% for Fe and 9% for [SO4]2-. At one station the occurrence of exceptionally high solid manganese oxyhydroxides was probably related to an active internal manganese cycle.

Geochemistry of sediments of stage 5 of the Nordic seas

Stable isotope, foraminifera and ice rafted detritus (IRD) records covering the last interglacial (the Eemian) from 7 sediment cores in a transect from the Norwegian to the Greenland Sea are presented. The percentages of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (s.) and Globigerina quinqueloba, foraminiferal content, and to some extent planktonic stable isotope records, demonstrate marked, regional changes in surface water conditions. Importantly, the variability in the abundances of subpolar foraminifera and foraminiferal content are not coherent, implying that these two types of proxies fluctuated independently of each other and most likely reflect changes in sea surface temperature and surface water carbonate productivity, respectively. Paleoceanographic reconstructions demonstrate significant movements of the oceanographic fronts. At the warmest periods, the Arctic front was located far west of the present-day location, at least within the Iceland Sea region. At 126-125 ka, this was most probably due to a stronger or more westerly located Norwegian current. Within the later warm intervals, higher heat flux to the western part of the basin reflects a combination of a stronger Irminger current and/or a weaker east Greenland current. During the main cold spell at ~124 ka, a diffuse Arctic front had a more southeasterly location than today, and intrusion of Atlantic surface waters was probably limited to a narrow corridor in the Eastern Norwegian Sea. A general correspondence between minima in sea surface temperatures and light benthic delta18O may indicate enhanced influx of freshwater to the basin within the cold events. At least in the Norwegian Sea, we find some evidence that the changes in surface water conditions are associated with changes in deep water ventilation. The majority of the fluctuations may be related to occasional breakdown or reduction of the thermohaline circulation within the Nordic seas. In the earliest Eemian, this could result from meltwater forcing. During the remaining part of the last interglacial the fine balance between temperature and salinity, which the deep water formation is depending on, may have been disturbed by periodic increases in fresh water supply or variable influx of warm Atlantic surface waters.

(Table 2) Trace metal concentrations in ODP Hole 169-1033B

We measured the concentrations of redox-sensitive trace metals (Mn, V, Mo, U, Cd and Re) in sediments from ODP Leg 169S Hole 1033B in Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, to determine changes in redox conditions associated with the onset of laminated sediments at ~12.5 kyr. The most striking result is a large peak in authigenic Re along with detrital levels of Mo at the glacial terrigenous clay-diatomaceous sediment transition. In contrast, the underlying glacial terrigenous clay, which extends throughout the bottom section of the core, is chemically similar to detrital concentrations, either Cowichan River particulates or average shale values. These data suggest a period of oxic bottom waters but reducing pore-waters. This could be due to the dramatic transformation of Saanich Inlet during the late deglaciation from an open bay to an inlet, which restricted circulation and slowed bottom water oxygen renewal. A peak and gradual increase in authigenic Mn in younger sediments subsequent to the Re peak suggests that increasingly oxic conditions followed the authigenic enrichment in Re. These conditions could be connected to the Younger Dryas cooling period, which was coincident with an increase in well oxygenated upwelled waters on the west coast of North America that form the bottom waters of Saanich Inlet. Metal concentrations in a gray clay bed (~11 kyr) are similar to their concentrations in the glacial terrigenous clay, implying that they have a common source. Authigenic enrichments of Re with little authigenic Mo and Cd suggest that before the deposition of this bed, bottom waters were oxic and pore-water oxygen was consumed in the top centimeter or less. Laminations above the clay layer suggest anoxic conditions, which are also indicated by higher authigenic Mo and Cd and slightly lower Re/Mo ratios in these sediments. The basin remained mostly anoxic after the gray clay was emplaced, as seen by continuous authigenic enrichment of the redox-sensitive trace metals. These results are consistent with increased stratification of the water column, brought about by an influx of fresh water to the basin by a large flood.

Sedimentological investigations and age model on sediment core PS2561-2

Benthic d13C values (F. wuellerstorfi), kaolinite/chlorite ratios and sortable silt median grain sizes in sediments of a core from the abyssal Agulhas Basin record the varying impact of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) during the last 200 ka. The data indicate that NADW influence decreased during glacials and increased during interglacials, in concert with the global climatic changes of the late Quaternary. In contrast, AABW displays a much more complex behaviour. Two independent modes of deep-water formation contributed to the AABW production in the Weddell Sea: 1) brine rejection during sea ice formation in polynyas and in the sea ice zone (Polynya Mode) and 2) super-cooling of Ice Shelf Water (ISW) beneath the Antarctic ice shelves (Ice Shelf Mode). Varying contributions of the two modes lead to a high millennial-scale variability of AABW production and export to the Agulhas Basin. Highest rates of AABW production occur during early glacials when increased sea ice formation and an active ISW production formed substantial amounts of deep water. Once full glacial conditions were reached and the Antarctic ice sheet grounded on the shelf, ISW production shut down and only brine rejection generated moderate amounts of deep water. AABW production rates dropped to an absolute minimum during Terminations I and II and the Marine Isotope Transition (MIS) 4/3 transition. Reduced sea ice formation concurrent with an enhanced fresh water influx from melting ice lowered the density of the surface water in the Weddell Sea, thus further reducing deep water formation via brine rejection, while the ISW formation was not yet operating again. During interglacials and the moderate interglacial MIS 3 both brine formation and ISW production were operating, contributing various amounts to AABW formation in the Weddell Sea.

Morphology and surface texture of quartz grains from ODP Site 105-645

The shapes and surface textures of sand-sized quartz grains from the sediments cored at Site 645 in southern Baffin Bay during ODP Leg 105 were studied to characterize the terrigenous materials and the settling processes involved in the deposition of these sediments. Here, we show a homogeneous sand fraction that results from mixing grains from various provenances. The characteristics inherited from terrestrial processes (varying degrees of wear; fluviatile, aeolian, and diagenetic features) dominate the characteristics that result from evolution in a high-energy marine environment. Thus, the influence of the last stage of sedimentation in a deep-marine environment was difficult to distinguish. However, fluctuations in the relative proportions of particular features reveal that the terrigenous material derived from sedimentary formations of Baffin Island and East Greenland or from direct abrasion of the crystalline shield, which changed through time as the dominant settling processes evolved. In particular, this study confirms the onset of major ice rafting as old as late Miocene.

Fluid compositions and mineralogy of precipitates from Mid Atlantic Ridge hydrothermal vents at 4°48'S

The effect of volcanic activity on submarine hydrothermal systems has been well documented along fast- and intermediate-spreading centers but not from slow-spreading ridges. Indeed, volcanic eruptions are expected to be rare on slow-spreading axes. Here we report the presence of hydrothermal venting associated with extremely fresh lava flows at an elevated, apparently magmatically robust segment center on the slow-spreading southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge near 5°S. Three high-temperature vent fields have been recognized so far over a strike length of less than 2 km with two fields venting phase-separated, vapor-type fluids. Exit temperatures at one of the fields reach up to 407°C, at conditions of the critical point of seawater, the highest temperatures ever recorded from the seafloor. Fluid and vent field characteristics show a large variability between the vent fields, a variation that is not expected within such a limited area. We conclude from mineralogical investigations of hydrothermal precipitates that vent-fluid compositions have evolved recently from relatively oxidizing to more reducing conditions, a shift that could also be related to renewed magmatic activity in the area. Current high exit temperatures, reducing conditions, low silica contents, and high hydrogen contents in the fluids of two vent sites are consistent with a shallow magmatic source, probably related to a young volcanic eruption event nearby, in which basaltic magma is actively crystallizing. This is the first reported evidence for direct magmatic-hydrothermal interaction on a slow-spreading mid-ocean ridge.