Stochastic optimal bid to electricity markets with environmental risk constraints

There are many factors that influence the day-ahead market bidding strategies of a generation company (GenCo) in the current energy market framework. Environmental policy issues have become more and more important for fossil-fuelled power plants and they have to be considered in their management, giving rise to emission limitations. This work allows to investigate the influence of both the allowances and emission reduction plan, and the incorporation of the derivatives medium-term commitments in the optimal generation bidding strategy to the day-ahead electricity market. Two different technologies have been considered: the coal thermal units, high-emission technology, and the combined cycle gas turbine units, low-emission technology. The Iberian Electricity Market and the Spanish National Emissions and Allocation Plans are the framework to deal with the environmental issues in the day-ahead market bidding strategies. To address emission limitations, some of the standard risk management methodologies developed for financial markets, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), have been extended. This study offers to electricity generation utilities a mathematical model to determinate the individual optimal generation bid to the wholesale electricity market, for each one of their generation units that maximizes the long-run profits of the utility abiding by the Iberian Electricity Market rules, the environmental restrictions set by the EU Emission Trading Scheme, as well as the restrictions set by the Spanish National Emissions Reduction Plan. The economic implications for a GenCo of including the environmental restrictions of these National Plans are analyzed and the most remarkable results will be presented.

Behavioural Flexibility: evolutionary past and its role in a changing world

A través de la historia de la vida, gran parte de los organismos han desarrollado estrategias para responder a un mundo en constante cambio. Hoy en día, las actividades humanas producen cambios ambientales a una velocidad sin precedentes, lo cual se traduce en grandes desafíos para la persistencia de biodiversidad. Esta investigación evalúa las respuesta de los animales a los cambios ambientales enfocándose en la flexibilidad del comportamiento como estrategia adaptativa. En una primera aproximación a una escala evolutiva, se otorgan evidencias del vínculo hasta ahora tenue entre la cognición e historias de vida, entregando un claro apoyo a la relación entre longevidad, vida reproductiva y el tamaño del cerebro en mamíferos. La longevidad es el centro de muchas hipótesis respecto a las ventajas de desarrollar un cerebro grande, como por ejemplo en la hipótesis del buffer cognitivo y las respuestas flexibles frente a nuevos ambientes. En un segundo nivel, se abordan factores extrínsecos e intrínsecos que podrían explicar las diferencias individuales en innovación, un componente clave en la flexibilidad del comportamiento. Por medio de una aproximación experimental, se evalúan potenciales escenarios que podrían conducir a consistentes diferencias individuales en uno de los principales factores subyacentes a la innovación (i.e. la motivación), y el potencial control endocrino sobre estos escenarios. Posteriormente, con el objetivo de evaluar la respuesta de los animales frente a los cambios ambientales actuales, se explora la respuesta de los animales frente a una de las actividades humanas mas disruptivas sobre los ecosistemas, la urbanización. Por medio de un analisis filogenetico comparativo a nivel global en aves se abordan los mecanismos implicados en la perdida de biodiversidad observada en ambientes urbanos. Los resultados entregan evidencias sobre la importancia de procesos de dispersión local junto con el papel clave de los rasgos de historia de vida, pero en un sentido diferente al clasicamente pensado. Finalmente por medio de una revisión bibliográfica se entregan evidencias teóricas y empíricas que respaldan el rol clave de la flexibilidad del comportamiento en confrontar los desafíos de una vida urbana. La integración de estos resultados muestra cómo el pasado evolutivo contribuye a hacer frente a los retos ambientales actuales, y pone de relieve posibles consecuencias ante un planeta más cambiante que nunca.

Agriculture, technological change and environmental sustainability: Looking for a win-win water policy strategy

This paper analyses the effects that technological changes in agriculture would have on environmental, social and economic indicators. Specifically, our study is focused on two alternative technological improvements: the modernization of water transportation systems versus the increase in the total factor productivity of agriculture. Using a computable general equilibrium model for the Catalan economy, our results suggest that a water policy that leads to greater economic efficiency is not necessarily optimal if we consider social or environmental criteria. Moreover, improving environmental sustainability depends less on the type of technological change than on the institutional framework in which technological change occurs. Keywords: agricultural technological changes, computable general equilibrium model, economic impact, water policy

Economic and environmental effects of the CO2 taxation: an input-output analysis for Spain

CO2 emissions induced by human activities are the major cause of climate change; hence, strong environmental policy that limits the growing dependence on fossil fuel is indispensable. Tradable permits and environmental taxes are the usual tools used in CO2 reduction strategies. Such economic tools provide incentives to polluting industries to reduce their emissions through market signals. The aim of this work is to investigate the direct and indirect effects of an environmental tax on Spanish products and services. We apply an environmentally extended input-output (EIO) model to identify CO2 emission intensities of products and services and, accordingly, we estimate the tax proportional to these intensities. The short-term price effects are analyzed using an input-output price model. The effect of tax introduction on consumption prices and its influence on consumers’ welfare are determined. We also quantify the environmental impacts of such taxation in terms of the reduction in CO2 emissions. The results, based on the Spanish economy for the year 2007, show that sectors with relatively poor environmental profile are subjected to high environmental tax rates. And consequently, applying a CO2 tax on these sectors, increases production prices and induces a slight increase in consumer price index and a decrease in private welfare. The revenue from the tax could be used to counter balance the negative effects on social welfare and also to stimulate the increase of renewable energy shares in the most impacting sectors. Finally, our analysis highlights that the environmental and economic goals cannot be met at the same time with the environmental taxation and this shows the necessity of finding other (complementary or alternative) measures to ensure both the economic and ecological efficiencies. Keywords: CO2 emissions; environmental tax; input-output model, effects of environmental taxation.

Melanin-based colour polymorphism responding to climate change.

Climate warming leads to a decrease in biodiversity. Organisms can deal with the new prevailing environmental conditions by one of two main routes, namely evolving new genetic adaptations or through phenotypic plasticity to modify behaviour and physiology. Melanin-based colouration has important functions in animals including a role in camouflage and thermoregulation, protection against UV-radiation and pathogens and, furthermore, genes involved in melanogenesis can pleiotropically regulate behaviour and physiology. In this article, I review the current evidence that differently coloured individuals are differentially sensitive to climate change. Predicting which of dark or pale colour variants (or morphs) will be more penalized by climate change will depend on the adaptive function of melanism in each species as well as how the degree of colouration covaries with behaviour and physiology. For instance, because climate change leads to a rise in temperature and UV-radiation and dark colouration plays a role in UV-protection, dark individuals may be less affected from global warming, if this phenomenon implies more solar radiation particularly in habitats of pale individuals. In contrast, as desertification increases, pale colouration may expand in those regions, whereas dark colourations may expand in regions where humidity is predicted to increase. Dark colouration may be also indirectly selected by climate warming because genes involved in the production of melanin pigments confer resistance to a number of stressful factors including those associated with climate warming. Furthermore, darker melanic individuals are commonly more aggressive than paler conspecifics, and hence they may better cope with competitive interactions due to invading species that expand their range in northern latitudes and at higher altitudes. To conclude, melanin may be a major component involved in adaptation to climate warming, and hence in animal populations melanin-based colouration is likely to change as an evolutionary or plastic response to climate warming.

Vigilancia ambiental de casos esporádicos de legionelosis en el municipio de Córdoba (España), 2005-2010

We examined the information of legionellosis surveillance system in the municipality of Cordoba (Spain) as a preventive resource for environmental health management and describes the public health implications of sporadic cases investigations. A multidisciplinary team analyzed information on surveillance of water sites potentially contaminated by Legionella and clinical data of the patients classified like community case; mapping patient's home address using geographic information systems (GIS). Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 was identified in 31 sporadic cases. 53 suspected sources, mainly cooling towers have been investigated. In no event is managed to locate infection source even if poorly maintained systems, structural deficiencies and operational failures were apparent. The use of GIS allowed us to identify two geographic areas where cases are concentrated within one radius of less than 500 meters. The finding of two suspected urban advised to reorient the preventive strategy in public health

Políticas para prevenir los daños causados por el alcohol.

The impact on health of alcohol in a given society is mainly related with the volume and pattern of drinking, and these are related with individual factors, but also with environmental factors, among which public policies are important determinants. Public policies may favour or reduce alcohol use, and thus have a substantial preventive capacity. The effectiveness of policies to prevent the harm caused by alcohol has been reviewed in recent documents, which provide evidence to extract recommendations. This paper reviews the most effective policies to reduce the harm caused by alcohol, with an emphasis in the use of taxes to increase its cost, availability regulation, and policies on drinking and driving. The regulation of alcohol promotion and publicity is also assessed, as well as the detection and treatment of alcohol abuse and dependence. The state of alcohol related policies in Spain is analysed, as well as the obstacles, for the adoption of policies more prone to prevention, and recommendations for the future are made.

Adipose tissue concentrations of persistent organic pollutants and total cancer risk in an adult cohort from Southern Spain: preliminary data from year 9 of the follow-up.

There is an increasing trend in the incidence of cancer worldwide, and it has been accepted that environmental factors account for an important proportion of the global burden. The present paper reports preliminary findings on the influence of the historical exposure to a group of persistent organic pollutants on total cancer risk, at year 9 in the follow-up of a cohort from Southern Spain. A cohort of 368 participants (median age 51 years) was recruited in 2003. Their historical exposure was estimated by analyzing residues of persistent organic pollutants in adipose tissue. Estimation of cancer incidence was based on data from a population-based cancer registry. Statistical analyses were performed using multivariable Cox-regression models. In males, PCB 153 concentrations were positively associated with total cancer risk, with an adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.20 (1.01-1.41) for an increment of 100 ng/g lipid. Our preliminary findings suggest a potential relationship between the historical exposure to persistent organic pollutants and the risk of cancer in men. However, these results should be interpreted with caution and require verification during the future follow-up of this cohort.

Exploring the environmental diversity of kinetoplastid flagellates in the high-throughput DNA sequencing era

The class Kinetoplastea encompasses both free-living and parasitic species from a wide range of hosts. Several representatives of this group are responsible for severe human diseases and for economic losses in agriculture and livestock. While this group encompasses over 30 genera, most of the available information has been derived from the vertebrate pathogenic genera Leishmaniaand Trypanosoma. Recent studies of the previously neglected groups of Kinetoplastea indicated that the actual diversity is much higher than previously thought. This article discusses the known segment of kinetoplastid diversity and how gene-directed Sanger sequencing and next-generation sequencing methods can help to deepen our knowledge of these interesting protists.

A combined analysis of the short-term effects of photochemical air pollutants on mortality within the EMECAM project.

In recent years, some epidemiologic studies have attributed adverse effects of air pollutants on health not only to particles and sulfur dioxide but also to photochemical air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and ozone). The effects are usually small, leading to some inconsistencies in the results of the studies. Furthermore, the different methodologic approaches of the studies used has made it difficult to derive generic conclusions. We provide here a quantitative summary of the short-term effects of photochemical air pollutants on mortality in seven Spanish cities involved in the EMECAM project, using generalized additive models from analyses of single and multiple pollutants. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone data were provided by seven EMECAM cities (Barcelona, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Oviedo, Seville, and Valencia). Mortality indicators included daily total mortality from all causes excluding external causes, daily cardiovascular mortality, and daily respiratory mortality. Individual estimates, obtained from city-specific generalized additive Poisson autoregressive models, were combined by means of fixed effects models and, if significant heterogeneity among local estimates was found, also by random effects models. Significant positive associations were found between daily mortality (all causes and cardiovascular) and NO(2), once the rest of air pollutants were taken into account. A 10 microg/m(3) increase in the 24-hr average 1-day NO(2)level was associated with an increase in the daily number of deaths of 0.43% [95% confidence interval (CI), -0.003-0.86%] for all causes excluding external. In the case of significant relationships, relative risks for cause-specific mortality were nearly twice as much as that for total mortality for all the photochemical pollutants. Ozone was independently related only to cardiovascular daily mortality. No independent statistically significant relationship between photochemical air pollutants and respiratory mortality was found. The results in this study suggest that, given the present levels of photochemical pollutants, people living in Spanish cities are exposed to health risks derived from air pollution.

Genetic and environmental effects on early life-history traits in salmonids

Les changements environnementaux, tels la température ou les maladies infectieuses, peuvent influencer l'évolution en induisant de la sélection, mais ceci à la seule condition qu'il y ait assez de diversité génétique pour les traits en question ou pour l'expression plastique de ces traits. Au cours cette thèse, nous avons étudié l'effet de potentielles pressions environnementales sur différents phénotypes de trois représentants des sous familles des salmonidés: l'ombre commun (Thymallus thymallus; Thymallinae), la truite de rivière {Salmo trutta; Salmoninae) et le corégone Coregonus palaea (Coregoninae). Les salmonidés se prêtent particulièrement bien à ce type d'expériences car étant hautement sensibles aux conditions environnementales, ils montrent une large variabilité dans leurs traits morphologiques, comportementaux ainsi que d'histoire de vie, tout en bénéficiant d'un large intérêt général. Nous avons testé si le sexe de l'ombre commun pouvait être modifié par la température, ce qui pourrait ainsi expliquer un changement abrupte de sex ratio observé dans l'une des plus grandes populations de Suisse. Nous n'avons trouvé aucun indice permettant de conclure que la température puisse induire ce changement chez l'ombre commun ou chez la truite de rivière. De plus nous avons étudié la plasticité de développement ainsi que d'éclosion, et avons observé des différences entre familles ainsi qu'entre populations. Alors que ces différences comportementales entre populations suggéraient une adaptation aux conditions environnementales locales, cette prédiction n'a pas été confirmée par une expérience de transplantation réciproque d'embryons entre cinq rivières de la même région. Cette étude a montré que les embryons ne survivaient pas mieux dans leur rivière d'origine, indiquant donc une absence d'adaptation locale. Nous avons aussi montré que la mortalité embryonnaire était influencée autant par des "bons gènes" que par des "gènes compatibles", que la qualité des mâles pouvait être signalée par leur coloration, et que le fait d'élever des poissons dans une pisciculture pouvait aboutir a des relations contre-intuitives entre la coloration des mâles et la qualité de leur jeunes. Nos résultats contribuent ainsi à une meilleure compréhension de l'effet de diverses pressions environnementales sur la morphologie, le comportement ou les traits d'histoire de vie chez les salmonidés. - Environmental changes, such as changes in temperatures or infection levels, can induce selection and drive evolution if there is sufficient genetic variation for the traits or the plasticity in trait expression. In this thesis, we investigated the influence of potential environmental stressors on various phenotypes in representatives of the three salmonid subfamilies: the European grayling (Thymallus thymallus; Thymallinae), the brown trout (,Salmo trutta; Salmoninae), and the whitefish Coregonus palaea (Coregoninae). Salmonids are ideal study species, as they seem sensitive to changing environmental conditions, show considerable variability in morphological, behavioral, and life history traits, and are of broad public interest. We investigated whether temperature-induced sex reversal could explain the sex-ratio distortion found in one of Switzerland's largest grayling populations. We found no evidence of temperature-induced sex reversal in either graylings or brown trout. We also examined plasticity in embryo development and the timing of hatching. We found variation at the level of family and population. Although behavioral differences between populations suggested adaptation to local environmental conditions, no indications of local adaptation could be found in reciprocal transplant experiments carried out over five rivers in the same region. We also demonstrate that embryo development and viability is influenced by 'good genes' and 'compatible genes', that the genetic quality of sires can be signaled by their grey coloration, and that raising larvae in a hatchery environment can produce counter-intuitive relationships between male phenotypes and offspring viability. Our results contribute to the understanding of how changing environmental conditions affect the phenotypes and the heritability of early life-history traits in salmonids.

Is ENP good news for the transfer of environmental norms? Incentives and socialization for Eastern neighbours

The launching of the European Neighbourhood Policy has created some expectations. Cooperation between the EU and its partners is expected to get deeper, to the point that neighbouring countries have been promised to share “everything but institutions” with the EU. Moreover, cooperation is also expected to be broader, as it has been presented as including more and more issue areas. In other words, the ENP has the vocation of being a universal instrument to promote the transfer of EU norms. This paper focuses on one single issue area, the environment, and one group of ENP partners, the Western Newly Independent States and the South Caucasus, to revise to what extent neighbourhood policy can provide the mechanisms to encourage rule transfer. Are incentives and disincentives powerful enough? Can the ENP promote the socialization of neighbours into EU environmental norms?