Incorporating waiting time in competitive location models: Formulations and heuristics

In this paper we propose a metaheuristic to solve a new version of the Maximum CaptureProblem. In the original MCP, market capture is obtained by lower traveling distances or lowertraveling time, in this new version not only the traveling time but also the waiting time willaffect the market share. This problem is hard to solve using standard optimization techniques.Metaheuristics are shown to offer accurate results within acceptable computing times.

Subsampling inference in threshold autoregressive models

This paper discusses inference in self exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR)models. Of main interest is inference for the threshold parameter. It iswell-known that the asymptotics of the corresponding estimator depend uponwhether the SETAR model is continuous or not. In the continuous case, thelimiting distribution is normal and standard inference is possible. Inthe discontinuous case, the limiting distribution is non-normal and cannotbe estimated consistently. We show valid inference can be drawn by theuse of the subsampling method. Moreover, the method can even be extendedto situations where the (dis)continuity of the model is unknown. In thiscase, also the inference for the regression parameters of the modelbecomes difficult and subsampling can be used advantageously there aswell. In addition, we consider an hypothesis test for the continuity ofthe SETAR model. A simulation study examines small sample performance.

Estimating learning models from experimental data

We study the statistical properties of three estimation methods for a model of learning that is often fitted to experimental data: quadratic deviation measures without unobserved heterogeneity, and maximum likelihood withand without unobserved heterogeneity. After discussing identification issues, we show that the estimators are consistent and provide their asymptotic distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that ignoring unobserved heterogeneity can lead to seriously biased estimations in samples which have the typical length of actual experiments. Better small sample properties areobtained if unobserved heterogeneity is introduced. That is, rather than estimating the parameters for each individual, the individual parameters are considered random variables, and the distribution of those random variables is estimated.

Location models for ceding market share and shrinking services

New location models are presented here for exploring the reduction of facilities in aregion. The first of these models considers firms ceding market share to competitorsunder situations of financial exigency. The goal of this model is to cede the leastmarket share, i.e., retain as much of the customer base as possible while sheddingcostly outlets. The second model considers a firm essentially without competition thatmust shrink it services for economic reasons. This firm is assumed to close outlets sothat the degradation of service is limited. An example is offered within a competitiveenvironment to demonstrate the usefulness of this modeling approach.

Location models for airline hubs behaving as M/D/c queues

Models are presented for the optimal location of hubs in airline networks, that take into consideration the congestion effects. Hubs, which are the most congested airports, are modeled as M/D/c queuing systems, that is, Poisson arrivals, deterministic service time, and {\em c} servers. A formula is derived for the probability of a number of customers in the system, which is later used to propose a probabilistic constraint. This constraint limits the probability of {\em b} airplanes in queue, to be lesser than a value $\alpha$. Due to the computational complexity of the formulation. The model is solved using a meta-heuristic based on tabu search. Computational experience is presented.

On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

Hierarchical location-allocation models for congested systems

In this paper we address the issue of locating hierarchical facilities in the presence of congestion. Two hierarchical models are presented, where lower level servers attend requests first, and then, some of the served customers are referred to higher level servers. In the first model, the objective is to find the minimum number of servers and theirlocations that will cover a given region with a distance or time standard. The second model is cast as a Maximal Covering Location formulation. A heuristic procedure is then presented together with computational experience. Finally, some extensions of these models that address other types of spatial configurations are offered.

Partial melting of basic dykes in the contact aureoles of two shallow-level, gabbro-pyroxenite intrusions, Fuerteventura

THESIS ABSTRACT Low-pressure anatexis of basic dykes gave rise to unusual, zebra-like migmatites, in the contact metamorphic aureoles of two layered gabbro-pyroxenite intrusions, PXl and PX2, in the root zone of an ocean island, Fuerteventura Basal Complex (Canary Islands). This thesis focuses on the understanding of processes attributing to the partial melting and formation of these migmatites, characterised by a dense network of closely spaced, millimetre-wide leucocratic segregations with perfectly preserved igneous textures. The presence of fluids are required to decrease the solidus of basic igneous lithologies, to allow partial melting in such aloes-pressure (1-2 kb) environment. An oxygen isotope study was thus carried out on dykes inside and beyond the PX2 aureole, in order to decipher the nature and origin of such fluids. Low or negative δ18O values were obtained for whole rocks and mineral-separates, decreasing towards the contact, with the intrusion itself retaining fairly high values. This trend has been attributed to the advection of meteoric water during magma emplacement, with increasing fluid/rock ratios (higher dyke intensities towards the intrusion acting as fluid-pathways) and higher temperatures promoting increasing exchange during recrystallisation. A comparison of whole rock and mineral major- and trace- element data allowed the redistribution of elements .between different mineral phases and generations, during contact metamorphism and partial melting to be assessed. Certain trace-elements, e.g. Zr, Hf, Y, and REEs, were internally redistributed during contact metamorphic recrystallisation, causing- the enrichment of neocrystallised diopsides compared to relict phenocrysts. This has been assigned to the liberation of trace elements on the breakdown of primary minerals, kaersutite and sphene, on entering the thermal aureole. Major and trace element compositions of minerals in migmatite melanosomes and leucosomes are almost identical, pointing to a syn- or post- solidus reequilibration on cooling of the migmatite terrain. The mineralogical, textural and geochemical evolution of dykes in a contact metamorphic aureole, is recorded around an apophysis of the PX1 intrusion, where there is evidence of incipient partial melting. Hydrothermal mineral pseudomorphs in the outer parts of the aureole are progressively replaced by dry mineral assemblages, with increasingly recrystallised diopside and evidence of partial melting -the extent of which varies from one lithology to another. The appearance of more mafic lithologies towards the intrusion, with lower whole rock SiO2 and mobile element abundances, e.g. Rb, Cs, K, has been explained by the migration and accumulation of feldspathic material into leucosomes outside the samples. A micro-structural study of leucosomes and leucocratic pods, with the aid of high-resolution X-ray computed micro-tomography (HRXµCT), allowing the visualization and quantification of shapes and orientations, was carried out in order to better understand the processes of melt segregation in the PX1 aureole. Leucocratic pods, representing former amygdales, are considered as natural strain ellipsoids. Their short axes are oriented perpendicular to leucosome planes, which sub-parallel the intrusive contact. Leucosomes thus effectively represent foliation planes. This implies that the direction of maximum shortening, during migmatisation, was perpendicular to the orientation of leucosomes, contradicting earlier models that suggest leucosomes represent tension veins. RESUME DE LA THESE Un phénomène rare de fusion partielle de filons basiques à basse pression a été étudié dans les auréoles de contact de deux intrusions litées de gabbro-pyroxénite, PX1 et PX2, localisées dans le soubassement de l'île volcanique de Fuerteventura aux Canaries. Cette anatexie a engendré des migmatites finement zébrées d'aspect très inhabituel, dont les processus de formation ont été étudiés dans le présent travail. Ces roches sont caractérisées par un réseau dense de veinules leucocrates d'épaisseur millimétrique, dont les textures ignées sont parfaitement préservées. La fusion partielle de roches basiques à basse pression (1-2 kbar) requiert la présence d'eau afin d'abaisser le solidus du système à des températures géologiquement réalistes. Une étude comparative des isotopes de l'oxygène a ainsi été menée sur des filons respectivement affectés et non affectés par le métamorphisme de contact, afin de confirmer la présence de ces fluides, de déterminer l'importance de leur interaction avec les roches et leur origine. Des valeurs de δ180 basses ou négatives ont été mesurées sur roche totale et minéraux séparés, décroissantes en direction du contact, alors que l'intrusion elle-même a conservé des valeurs élevées. Ce gradient a été attribué à l'advection d'eau météorique durant la mise en place du magma, les températures les plus élevées favorisant d'autant plus la circulation des fluides et les échanges isotopiques durant la recristallisation des roches. Cette recristallisation engendré une redistribution chimique complète des éléments entre les différentes générations de minéraux résultant du métamorphisme de contact et de l'anatexie, mise en évidence par microanalyse. Certains éléments traces comme Zr, Hf, Y et les REE ont été concentrés dans le diopside néoformé consécutivement à la déstabilisation de minéraux primaires riches en ces éléments comme la kaersutite ou le sphène. Les compositions en éléments majeurs et traces des minéraux des mélanosomes et leucosomes des migmatites sont pratiquement identiques, indiquant une rééquilibration syn- à postsolidus lors du refroidissement de l'auréole de contact. La transformation progressive des filons basiques au niveau de leur minéralogie, textures et composition chimique a pu être observée en détail à l'approche du contact d'une apophyse de l'intrusion PX1. La paragenèse magmatique initiale n'est jamais préservée, les faciès les plus distants du contact étant constitués d'un assemblage pseudomorphique hydrothermal. Ce dernier est progressivement remplacé par des assemblages anhydres incluant du diopside néoformé, puis apparaissent les premiers signes de fusion partielle, dont l'importance varie fortement d'une lithologie à l'autre. L'apparition de faciès plus basiques en direction du contact, avec des teneurs réduites en SiO2 et en éléments incompatibles tels Rb, Cs, K, a été attribuée à l'échappement de leucosomes feldspathiques hors du système. Une étude microstructurale de la distribution spatiale du matériel leucocrate au sein des migmatites par microtomographie X de haute résolution (HRXµCT) a été menée pour mieux comprendre les processus de ségrégation des liquides dans l'auréole de PX1. De petites entités ovoïdes, représentant d'anciennes structures amygdalaires au sein des filons, ont été considérées comme des ellipsoïdes marqueurs de la déformation finie. Leur petit axe est orienté perpendiculairement aux plans définis par les leucosomes, eux-mêmes subparallèles au contact intrusif. Les leucosomes matérialisent donc des plans de clivage. Ainsi, la direction de raccourcissement maximum durant la fusion partielle était perpendiculaire à l'orientation des leucosomes, contrairement à ce qui a été dit dans de précédentes publications, qui suggéraient que les leucosomes représentaient des veines de tension. RESUME DE LA THESE (POUR LE GRAND PUBLIC) L'observation directe du soubassement d'une île volcanique est une occasion rare, accessible dans le «complexe de base » de l'île canarienne de Fuerteventura. Ce dernier a enregistré divers phénomènes magmatiques, métamorphiques et de fusion partielle induits par l'intrusion répétée de magmas alimentant des appareils volcaniques sus jacents, sous forme de petits plutons, essaims de filons et complexes annulaires de gabbros alcalins, pyroxénites, syénites et carbonatites. Dans ce contexte de flux de chaleur élevé, des filons basiques ont subi une fusion partielle au contact de deux intrusions de gabbro-pyroxénite, un phénomène extrêmement rare à une profondeur aussi réduite, estimée à quelque 3-6 km. Les produits de cette fusion partielle sont des liquides très riches en feldspath, concentrés en un réseau dense de veinules blanches (leucosomes) au sein du matériau résiduel sombre non fondu (mélanosome) pour former ce qu'on appelle des migmatites. Outre les aspects pétrologiques liés à la formation de ces migmatites, l'intérêt majeur du phénomène réside dans le fait qu'il puisse représenter la source des magmas évolués parfois observés sur les îles océaniques. A des pressions aussi faibles que dans le soubassement de Fuerteventura (1-2 Kbar), la présence de fluides abondants est nécessaire pour abaisser la température de début de fusion des roches (solidus) à des valeurs géologiquement réalistes. Des expériences ont montré que même en présence de plusieurs %-poids d'eau, une température de 1000°C était encore nécessaire pour obtenir une proportion de liquide équivalente à celle observée sur le terrain, soit 25%. Or les magmas alcalins des îles océaniques, bien qu'hydratés, n'en contiennent de loin pas autant, ce qui implique une source d'eau externe. Une étude isotopique de l'oxygène a été entreprise afin de tester cette hypothèse. Les valeurs obtenues en 5180 sont basses ou négatives et indiquent l'influence d'eau d'origine météorique. Cette eau de pluie se serait infiltrée le long des filons depuis la surface du volcan et les aurait complètement hydrothermalisés en profondeur (situation encore visible à l'extérieur de l'auréole de contact), leur permettant ainsi de stocker l'eau nécessaire à leur fusion partielle ultérieure. L'interaction entre eau de pluie et filons a été d'autant plus importante que ces derniers étaient proches du contact avec l'intrusion, ce qui suggère que la circulation de ces eaux et leur interaction avec les roches a été favorisée par la chaleur fournie par l'intrusion elle-même. Un autre aspect de ce travail s'est focalisé sur la redistribution des éléments traces au sein des minéraux des filons basiques durant le métamorphisme de contact et la fusion partielle. Ainsi, le pyroxène de seconde génération est-il sensiblement enrichi en traces telles Zr, Hf, Y et les terres rares, par rapport au pyroxène magmatique originel, en relation avec la déstabilisation de minéraux primaires riches en ces éléments tels le sphène et la kaersutite. Cependant, les compositions en éléments majeurs et traces des minéraux recristallisés des migmatites sont pratiquement les mêmes dans les leucosomes et les mélanosomes, suggérant une rééquilibration chimique complète durant le refroidissement de ces lithologies. Si certaines migmatites se sont comportées en système chimiquement fermé (hormis l'eau météorique), d'autres filons ont manifestement perdu une partie de leurs leucosomes, ainsi qu'en témoigne leur composition progressivement appauvrie en silice et autres éléments incompatibles mobiles, tels K et Rb à l'approche du contact de l'intrusion. Parallèlement à cette évolution chimique, les paragenèses hydrothermales distantes du contact sont progressivement remplacées par des paragenèses anhydres, puis par l'apparition des premiers leucosomes, tandis que les textures magmatiques initiales sont complètement effacées au profit d'une combinaison de textures magmatique dans les leucosomes et en mosaïque dans les mélanosomes. Enfin, la distribution spatiale des liquides de fusion partielle a été étudiée par microtomographie X de haute résolution, dans des filons contenant des entités ovoïdes leucocrates, sans doute d'anciennes amygdales à zéolites. Ces dernières ont été considérées comme des ellipsoïdes de la déformation finie. L'orientation de leur petit axe, perpendiculaire au plan défini par les veinules de leucosomes, indique que ces derniers représentent des plans de clivage perpendiculaires à la direction de raccourcissement maximum. Ainsi, la ségrégation des liquides de fusion partielle se serait faite dans les plans de compression et non dans des plans de dilatation, contrairement à ce que laisserait penser le sens commun.

Validation procedures in radiological diagnostic models. Neural network and logistic regression

The objective of this paper is to compare the performance of twopredictive radiological models, logistic regression (LR) and neural network (NN), with five different resampling methods. One hundred and sixty-seven patients with proven calvarial lesions as the only known disease were enrolled. Clinical and CT data were used for LR and NN models. Both models were developed with cross validation, leave-one-out and three different bootstrap algorithms. The final results of each model were compared with error rate and the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (Az). The neural network obtained statistically higher Az than LR with cross validation. The remaining resampling validation methods did not reveal statistically significant differences between LR and NN rules. The neural network classifier performs better than the one based on logistic regression. This advantage is well detected by three-fold cross-validation, but remains unnoticed when leave-one-out or bootstrap algorithms are used.

Eliciting consumers preferences using stated preference discrete choice models: Contingent ranking versus choice experiment

The aim of this paper is twofold: firstly, to carry out a theoreticalreview of the most recent stated preference techniques used foreliciting consumers preferences and, secondly, to compare the empiricalresults of two dierent stated preference discrete choice approaches.They dier in the measurement scale for the dependent variable and,therefore, in the estimation method, despite both using a multinomiallogit. One of the approaches uses a complete ranking of full-profiles(contingent ranking), that is, individuals must rank a set ofalternatives from the most to the least preferred, and the other usesa first-choice rule in which individuals must select the most preferredoption from a choice set (choice experiment). From the results werealize how important the measurement scale for the dependent variablebecomes and, to what extent, procedure invariance is satisfied.

Estimating cross-industry cross-country models using benchmark industry characteristics

International industry data permits testing whether the industry-specific impact of cross-countrydifferences in institutions or policies is consistent with economic theory. Empirical implementationrequires specifying the industry characteristics that determine impact strength. Most of the literature has been using US proxies of the relevant industry characteristics. We show that usingindustry characteristics in a benchmark country as a proxy of the relevant industry characteristicscan result in an attenuation bias or an amplification bias. We also describe circumstances allowingfor an alternative approach that yields consistent estimates. As an application, we reexamine theinfluential conjecture that financial development facilitates the reallocation of capital from decliningto expanding industries.

Adaptive sequence evolution in a color gene involved in the formation of the characteristic egg-dummies of male haplochromine cichlid fishes.

BACKGROUND: The exceptionally diverse species flocks of cichlid fishes in East Africa are prime examples of parallel adaptive radiations. About 80% of East Africa's more than 1 800 endemic cichlid species, and all species of the flocks of Lakes Victoria and Malawi, belong to a particularly rapidly evolving lineage, the haplochromines. One characteristic feature of the haplochromines is their possession of egg-dummies on the males' anal fins. These egg-spots mimic real eggs and play an important role in the mating system of these maternal mouthbrooding fish. RESULTS: Here, we show that the egg-spots of haplochromines are made up of yellow pigment cells, xanthophores, and that a gene coding for a type III receptor tyrosine kinase, colony-stimulating factor 1 receptor a (csf1ra), is expressed in egg-spot tissue. Molecular evolutionary analyses reveal that the extracellular ligand-binding and receptor-interacting domain of csf1ra underwent adaptive sequence evolution in the ancestral lineage of the haplochromines, coinciding with the emergence of egg-dummies. We also find that csf1ra is expressed in the egg-dummies of a distantly related cichlid species, the ectodine cichlid Ophthalmotilapia ventralis, in which markings with similar functions evolved on the pelvic fin in convergence to those of the haplochromines. CONCLUSION: We conclude that modifications of existing signal transduction mechanisms might have evolved in the haplochromine lineage in association with the origination of anal fin egg-dummies. That positive selection has acted during the evolution of a color gene that seems to be involved in the morphogenesis of a sexually selected trait, the egg-dummies, highlights the importance of further investigations of the comparative genomic basis of the phenotypic diversification of cichlid fishes.

A new species of Homalocerus Schoenherr from the Atlantic coast of the State of São Paulo, Brazil (Coleoptera, Belidae, Belinae), with notes on color pattern and on the sclerites of the internal sac

A new species of Homalocerus Schoenherr from the Atlantic coast of the State of São Paulo, Brazil (Coleoptera, Belidae, Belinae), with notes on color pattern and on the sclerites of the internal sac. Homalocerus bimaculatus sp. nov. (type locality: Brazil, São Paulo) is described and illustrated, and comments on the sclerites of the internal sac of aedeagus and on color pattern are provided. The new species is compared to other similar species of the genus, being distinguished by having three clusters of carmine pubescence on pronotum and two lateral whitish oval spots located slightly before the middle of each elytron. Six species of Homalocerus, including the new one, are known from the State of São Paulo. The previously published identification key for species of Homalocerus is updated to include H. bimaculatus.

Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models

n the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.