Minsky on "Big Government"

This paper objective is to assess, in light of the main works of Minsky, his view and analysis of what he called the "Big Government" as that huge institution which, in parallels with the "Big Bank" was capable of ensuring stability in the capitalist system and regulate its inherently unstable financial system in mid-20th century. In this work, we analyze how Minsky proposes an active role for the government in a complex economic system flawed by financial instability.

Suomen laskusuhdanteiden vertailu: 1990-luvun laman ja 2000-luvun globaalin finanssikriisin vaikutukset kuluttajille

Suomessa merkittävimpiä talouden laskusuhdanteita ja talouskriisejä ovat sotien jälkeen olleet 1990-luvun alun lama sekä vuonna 2008 alkanut finanssikriisin jälkeinen taantuma. Näillä kahdella ilmiöllä on ollut laajalti vaikutuksia koko kansantalouteemme, ja luonnollisesti suomalaisten kuluttajien taloudellinen hyvinvointi on muuttunut ilmiöiden myötä. Yksilöiden aiempaa huonompi taloudellinen hyvinvointi laskusuhdanteissa aiheutuu laskeneista tuloista, työttömyydestä ja varallisuushintojen laskusta sekä edellä mainittujen seurauksista. Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on analysoida ja vertailla 1990-luvun laman ja 2000-luvun globaalin finanssikriisin aiheuttamia taloudellisia vaikutuksia suomalaisille kuluttajille. Lisäksi tarkoituksena on selvittää, minkä eri tekijöiden kautta laskusuhdanteet vaikuttavat kuluttajiin ja miksi. Tutkielman empiirisessä osiossa käytetään pääasiassa Tilastokeskuksen tuottamaa kvantitatiivista materiaalia sekä analyysin rikastamiseksi erilaisia kvalitatiivisia tutkimustuloksia aiheesta. Tutkielman lopputuloksena voidaan todeta 1990-luvun laman vaikuttaneen suomalaisiin kuluttajiin voimakkaammin ja pitkäkestoisemmin kuin finanssikriisin aiheuttaman taantuman. Laman vaikutukset kestivät useita vuosia, ja palautuminen oli hidasta. Erityisen suureksi ongelmaksi nousi työttömyyden voimakas kasvu. Finanssikriisin myötä työttömyys reagoi bruttokansantuotteen laskuun nähden sen sijaan maltillisesti, eivätkä esimerkiksi kotitalouksien tulot laskeneet samalla tavalla kuin laman aikana. Lisäksi merkittävässä osassa 1990-luvun lamaa oli asuntomarkkinoiden hintakupla ja sen puhkeaminen, jolla oli voimakas vaikutus reaalitalouteen. Laskukausien toisistaan poikkeavat vaikutukset johtuvat pitkälti niiden syntyyn johtaneiden syiden eroista sekä valtion talouspoliittisista toimista laskukausien helpottamiseksi. Siinä missä 1990-luvun lama johtui pääasiassa Suomen sisäisistä poliittisista päätöksistä ja pankkisektorista, oli finanssikriisi Suomen ulkopuolinen globaalin rahoitusmarkkinoiden häiriö.

Anne McPherson family fonds, 1852-2011 [non-inclusive]

Frank C. (Case) McCordick (1873-1946) was the son of William Henry (1849-1930) and Emily D. Howell (1851-1927) McCordick. William H. McCordick was in the coal business. The McCordick family included Frank Case, Mabel Gertrude, Ethel Howell and Arthur Stanley. Frank C. McCordick was educated in St. Catharines, and worked with his father in the coal business and eventually opened up a leather tanning operation. McCordick was active in the Lincoln Regiment and in 1906 was promoted to captain and in command of Company A, 19th Regiment. He was promoted to major and at the outbreak of war he was sent overseas as a commander of the 35th Battalion of the Canadian Expeditionary Forces (CEF). Upon arrival in France he was made officer commanding the 15th Battalion, King’s Own Yorkshire Light Infantry (KOYLI). After the war and his return to Canada he continued to play an active role in the local military units in the area as well as in Hamilton. After his retirement from the military in 1927 McCordick served as alderman and then mayor of St. Catharines from 1930 to 1931. He was a member of a large number of civic clubs, including St. Catharines Chamber of Commerce, Y.M.C.A., Lion’s Club, St. Catharines Golf Club, Detroit Boat Club, the St Catharines Club, as well as a member of several Masonic lodges. He continued to operate McCordick Tannery and other local investments. In 1903 Frank C. McCordick married May Beatrice Simson, daughter of Thomas E. Simson of Thorold. They had three children, E. (Edward) Frank McCordick, Bruce McCordick and (Margaret) Doris McCordick (m. Hubert Grigaut, d. 1977). The McCordick family resided at 82 Yates Street, near Adams Street. May Simson McCordick (b. 1873) was the daughter of Thomas Edward (1836-1908) and Julia Headlam (1844-1887) Simson of Thorold. Her siblings included: Edward, Frances, John, Augusta, Georgia and Gertrude. E. (Edward) Frank McCordick (1904-1980) was born in St. Catharines, Ont., attended Lake Lodge School in Grimsby, Ridley College in St. Catharines, Beechmont Preparatory School in England, Upper Canada College in Toronto and graduated from Royal Military College in Kingston, Ont. in 1925. Upon graduation he was made a lieutenant in the 10th (St. Catharines) Field Battery. In 1929 he married Helen Stanley Smith, daughter of Stanley George and Mary Walker Smith of St. Catharines. Col. McCordick, now promoted to Major, played an active role in the 10th (St. Catharines) Field Battery, being officer commanding the battery. In late 1939 McCordick headed to England for artillery tactical training and on December 6, 1939 the battery began the long trek overseas. McCordick saw action in Italy and in Holland. Upon his return to Canada at the end of the war he was the Liberal candidate in the federal election for Lincoln County. He remained active in the local military serving as honorary lieutenant-colonel of the 56th Field Regiment (ARCA) and in 1976 as the honorary colonel of the regiment. Col. McCordick held the Efficiency Decoration, the Order of the British Empire, granted in 1945 and was made an officer in the Order of St. John in 1978. He continued to serve his community in various capacities, including the Unemployment Insurance Canada Board, Royal Trust Company and the St. John Ambulance Society. He remained an active member of the alumni of Royal Military College, editing and compiling a newsletter and organizing reunion weekends. He kept in close contact with many of his classmates. Helen Stanley Smith McCordick lived in St. Catharines, Ont., attended Robertson School, and graduated from the University of Toronto in 1926 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in Modern Languages. During the war years (1939-1945) Helen was active in the Transport division of the local branch of the Canadian Red Cross and the Women’s Auxiliary of the 10th Field Battery. In 1932 E. Frank and Helen McCordick welcomed their only child, (Catharine) Anne McCordick. Helen continued to play an active role in her community until her passing in 1997. Stanley George Smith (1865-1960) was born in St. Catharines, Ont., the only child of William Smith (d. June 16, 1876) a native of Edinburgh, Scotland and his wife Hannah Louisa Maria Bulkeley a native of Fairfield, Connecticut. Stanley George Smith married Mary Walker of Guelph, Ont.(d. 1956) Mary was the daughter of Hugh and Elizabeth (d. 1924) Walker. Her siblings included Margaret, Agnes, Jessie, Isabella, Lorne, Ada, Alice, Eva, Alexander and George. Hugh Walker was a prominent fruit and vegetable merchant in Guelph. On 1904 their only child, Helen Stanley Smith was born. He was a post office clerk, and the treasurer for the James D. Tait Co. Ltd., a clothing and dry goods retailer in St. Catharines. The family lived at 39 Church Street in St. Catharines, Ont.

St. Catharines and District Labour Council fonds, 1957-1986

The St. Catharines and District Labour Council was founded in May 1957 by unionized workers from St. Catharines, Thorold, Merritton, Port Dalhousie and Grimsby. They sought to improve the social and economic welfare of workers; promote the organization of workers into unions for their mutual benefit, regardless of race, creed, colour, or national origin; encourage the sale of union-made goods and services; promote worker education; provide workers with a voice in politics; and safeguard the democratic nature of the labour movement. The Council, affiliated with both the Canadian Labour Congress and the Ontario Federation of Labour, was instrumental in assisting local workers with their labour disputes, including Canadian Pulp and Paper workers at Abitibi Provincial Paper in Thorold [1975-76], and Gallaher Paper [1999], workers at the St. Catharines Eaton’s store [1985], as well as smaller disputes such as that between the part-time secretarial staff and the Welland County Roman Catholic Separate School Board [1972] and workers of the Skyway Lumber Company [1972]. The Council also assisted the community at large by offering a Community Counseling Service [1971-1976] to help citizens with issues concerning various government agencies, social services and Acts, such as the Vacation Pay Act, Landlord and Tenant Act, Employment Standards Act, unemployment insurance claims and workman’s compensation claims. Other projects that the Council organized included an annual Education Institute [1958-1965] and the annual publication of Labour Review, a summary of the Council’s past year. The Labour Council continued to operate until 2010, when several local Labour Councils merged to form the Niagara Regional Labour Council.

Educational Qualification Without Suitable Employment: Exploring Immigrant Engineers' Personal Narratives

This qualitative study investigated the experiences of immigrant professional engineers in Canada, 81% of whom are unable to secure employment in their field despite arriving under the auspices of the Canadian government’s skilled workers program. The study sought to identify factors that impede such qualified engineers’ opportunities within the Canadian job market. Because global economic competition demands that qualified professionals contribute to technological innovation, Canada must develop transitional programs that acknowledge credentials and prior work experience in order to address the underutilization of these qualified professionals and allow immigrant engineers to gain employment within their field. To this end, the study examined personal narratives of immigrant engineers who have experienced unemployment despite high levels of educational attainment, and circumstances that contribute to immigrant engineers’ unemployed status. The paper presents a discussion and recommendations for future research in the area of qualification without suitable employment.  

How Important Are Intergenerational Transfers of Time? a Macroeconomic Analysis.

This paper examines the implications of intergenerational transfers of time and money for labor supply and capital accumulation. Although intergenerational transfers of time in the form of grandparenting are as substantial as monetary transfers in the data, little is known about the role and importance of time transfers. In this paper, we calibrate an overlapping generations model extended to allow for both time and monetary transfers to the US economy. We use simulations to show that time transfers have important positive effects on capital accumulation and that these effects can be as significant as those of monetary transfers. However, while time transfers increase the labor supply of the young, monetary transfers produce an income effect that tends to decrease work effort. We also find that child care tax credits have little impact on parental time and money transfers, but that a universal child tax credit would increase the welfare of the rich while the poor would benefit from a means-tested program.

Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences

This paper develops and estimates a game-theoretical model of inflation targeting where the central banker's preferences are asymmetric around the targeted rate. In particular, positive deviations from the target can be weighted more, or less, severely than negative ones in the central banker's loss function. It is shown that some of the previous results derived under the assumption of symmetry are not robust to the generalization of preferences. Estimates of the central banker's preference parameters for Canada, Sweden, and the United Kingdom are statistically different from the ones implied by the commonly used quadratic loss function. Econometric results are robust to different forecasting models for the rate of unemployment but not to the use of measures of inflation broader than the one targeted.

Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation? a Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence

This paper tests the predictions of the Barro-Gordon model using US data on inflation and unemployment. To that end, it constructs a general game-theoretical model with asymmetric preferences that nests the Barro-Gordon model and a version of Cukierman’s model as special cases. Likelihood Ratio tests indicate that the restriction imposed by the Barro-Gordon model is rejected by the data but the one imposed by the version of Cukierman’s model is not. Reduced-form estimates are consistent with the view that the Federal Reserve weights more heavily positive than negative unemployment deviations from the expected natural rate.

Wage Flexibility and Contract Structure in Germany

In this paper, we look at how labor market conditions at different points during the tenure of individuals with firms are correlated with current earnings. Using data on individuals from the German Socioeconomic Panel for the 1985-1994 period, we find that both the contemporaneous unemployment rate and prior values of the unemployment rate are significantly correlated with current earnings, contrary to results for the American labor market. Estimated elasticities vary between 9 and 15 percent for the elasticity of earnings with respect to current unemployment rates, and between 6 and 10 percent with respect to unemployment rates at the start of current firm tenure. Moreover, whereas local unemployment rates determine levels of earnings, national rates influence contemporaneous variations in earnings. We interpret this result as evidence that German unions do, in fact, bargain over wages and employment, but that models of individualistic contracts, such as the implicit contract model, may explain some of the observed wage drift and longer-term wage movements reasonably well. Furthermore, we explore the heterogeneity of contracts over a variety of worker and job characteristics. In particular, we find evidence that contracts differ across firm size and worker type. Workers of large firms are remarkably more insulated from the job market than workers for any other type of firm, indicating the importance of internal job markets.

Why Have Aggregate Skilled Hours Become So Cyclical Since the Mid-1980's?

This paper documents and discusses a dramatic change in the cyclical behavior of aggregate hours worked by individuals with a college degree (skilled workers) since the mid-1980’s. Using the CPS outgoing rotation data set for the period 1979:1-2003:4, we find that the volatility of aggregate skilled hours relative to the volatility of GDP has nearly tripled since 1984. In contrast, the cyclical properties of unskilled hours have remained essentially unchanged. We evaluate the extent to which a simple supply/demand model for skilled and unskilled labor with capital-skill complementarity in production can help explain this stylized fact. Within this framework, we identify three effects which would lead to an increase in the relative volatility of skilled hours: (i) a reduction in the degree of capital-skill complementarity, (ii) a reduction in the absolute volatility of GDP (and unskilled hours), and (iii) an increase in the level of capital equipment relative to skilled labor. We provide empirical evidence in support of each of these effects. Our conclusion is that these three mechanisms can jointly explain about sixty percent of the observed increase in the relative volatility of skilled labor. The reduction in the degree of capital-skill complementarity contributes the most to this result.

La mobilite internationale des facteurs de production en situation de chomage et de libre-echange commercial: une revue de la problematique.

Cet article fait un recensement des analyses theoriques et empiriques concernant les effets possibles de la mobilite internationale des facteurs de production. les resultats et les recommendations du modele de base sont etablis quand prevalent le plein-emploi et l'ajustement complet des marches. les resultats des diverses analyses, dans un contexte de chomage structurel, sont ensuite identifies.

Le rôle de la garde non-maternelle sur le développement cognitif et la sécrétion cortisolaire des enfants : investigations longitudinales populationnelles et méta-analytiques

Résumé La présente thèse doctorale vise à déterminer sous quelles conditions la garde non-maternelle est associée (positivement/négativement) au niveau de stress et au développement cognitif des enfants. Elle comporte une recension des écrits et trois articles empiriques. Le premier article présente une recension des écrits (de type méta-analytique) qui synthétise les études portant sur le stress des enfants en services de garde et ayant utilisé le niveau de cortisol comme indicateur. Les résultats montrent que la garde non-maternelle est associée au niveau de stress des enfants, se reflétant dans des concentrations de cortisol élevées. Les niveaux de stress élevés s’observent particulièrement chez les enfants qui au départ ont tendance à être retirés, anxieux ou qui sont gardés dans un milieu de faible qualité. Cependant, certains éléments indiquent que les élévations de cortisol à la garderie sont temporaires et qu’elles disparaissent au fur et à mesure que l’enfant s’adapte à son milieu. Le deuxième article de thèse, réalisé dans le contexte de l’Échantillon longitudinal national des enfants et des jeunes [ELNEJ] (n = 3093), vise à déterminer dans quelle mesure l’association entre la fréquentation des services de garde et l’acquisition du vocabulaire réceptif au préscolaire dépend du milieu familial de l’enfant. Les résultats indiquent qu’à l’intérieur du groupe d’enfants défavorisés, ceux ayant été gardés à temps plein dans la première année de vie obtiennent des scores supérieurs sur une mesure de vocabulaire réceptif administrée à 4 ½ ans, comparativement aux enfants restés à la maison avec la mère (d=0.58). Le troisième article, réalisé dans le contexte de l’Étude longitudinale des enfants du Québec [ELDEQ]; (n=2,120), vise à documenter les bénéfices à long terme de la fréquentation des services de garde par les enfants issus de milieux désavantagés sur la préparation scolaire et les compétences académiques. Les résultats révèlent que les enfants dont la mère n’a pas terminé ses études secondaires obtiennent de meilleurs résultats sur une mesure de préparation scolaire cognitive (d=0.56) et de vocabulaire réceptif (d=0.30) en maternelle, et de connaissance des nombres (d=0.43) en première année, s’ils ont fréquenté un service de garde sur une base régulière. Par ailleurs, la garde non-parentale n’est pas associée aux compétences cognitives des enfants de milieux sociaux favorisés. L’objectif du quatrième article est d’examiner les facteurs de sélection quant à l’utilisation des services de garde dans le contexte de l’ELDEQ. Les résultats montrent que l’absence d’emploi de la mère pendant la grossesse, le faible niveau d’éducation de la mère; le revenu insuffisant de la famille, avoir plus de 2 frères et sœurs, la surprotection maternelle, et le faible niveau de stimulation cognitive sont associés à une faible utilisation des services de garde (30.7% de l’échantillon québécois). En d’autres termes, les enfants qui sont les plus susceptibles de retirer des avantages des services de garde sur le plan du développement, en raison de la présence de facteurs de risque dans leur milieu familial, sont aussi ceux qui utilisent le moins les services de garde.