Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

BER analysis of space-time block codes from generalized complex orthogonal designs for M-PSK

In this paper, we present an analysis for the bit error rate (BER) performance of space-time block codes (STBC) from generalized complex orthogonal designs for M-PSK modulation. In STBCs from complex orthogonal designs (COD), the norms of the column vectors are the same (e.g., Alamouti code). However, in generalized COD (GCOD), the norms of the column vectors may not necessarily be the same (e.g., the rate-3/5 and rate-7/11 codes by Su and Xia in [1]). STBCs from GCOD are of interest because of the high rates that they can achieve (in [2], it has been shown that the maximum achievable rate for STBCs from GCOD is bounded by 4/5). While the BER performance of STBCs: from COD (e.g., Alamouti code) can be simply obtained from existing analytical expressions for receive diversity with the same diversity order by appropriately scaling the SNR, this can not be done for STBCs from GCOD (because of the unequal norms of the column vectors). Our contribution in this paper is that we derive analytical expressions for the BER performance of any STBC from GCOD. Our BER analysis for the GCOD captures the performance of STBCs from COD as special cases. We validate our results with two STBCs from GCOD reported by Su and Xia in [1], for 5 and 6 transmit antennas (G(5) and G(6) in [1]) with rates 7/11 and 3/5, respectively.

Discovering user preferences by using time entries in click-through data to improve search engine results

The search engine log files have been used to gather direct user feedback on the relevancy of the documents presented in the results page. Typically the relative position of the clicks gathered from the log files is used a proxy for the direct user feedback. In this paper we identify reasons for the incompleteness of the relative position of clicks for deciphering the user preferences. Hence, we propose the use of time spent by the user in reading through the document as indicative of user preference for a document with respect to a query. Also, we identify the issues involved in using the time measure and propose means to address them.

BER analysis of space-time block codes from generalized complex orthogonal designs for M-PSK

In this paper, we present an analysis for the bit error rate (BER) performance of space-time block codes (STBC) from generalized complex orthogonal designs for M-PSK modulation. In STBCs from complex orthogonal designs (COD), the norms of the column vectors are the same (e.g., Alamouti code). However, in generalized COD (GCOD), the norms of the column vectors may not necessarily be the same (e.g., the rate-3/5 and rate-7/11 codes by Su and Xia in [1]). STBCs from GCOD are of interest because of the high rates that they can achieve (in [2], it has been shown that the maximum achievable rate for STBCs from GCOD is bounded by 4/5). While the BER performance of STBCs: from COD (e.g., Alamouti code) can be simply obtained from existing analytical expressions for receive diversity with the same diversity order by appropriately scaling the SNR, this can not be done for STBCs from GCOD (because of the unequal norms of the column vectors). Our contribution in this paper is that we derive analytical expressions for the BER performance of any STBC from GCOD. Our BER analysis for the GCOD captures the performance of STBCs from COD as special cases. We validate our results with two STBCs from GCOD reported by Su and Xia in [1], for 5 and 6 transmit antennas (G(5) and G(6) in [1]) with rates 7/11 and 3/5, respectively.

Self-regularized pseudo time-marching schemes for structural system identification with static measurements

We explore the application of pseudo time marching schemes, involving either deterministic integration or stochastic filtering, to solve the inverse problem of parameter identification of large dimensional structural systems from partial and noisy measurements of strictly static response. Solutions of such non-linear inverse problems could provide useful local stiffness variations and do not have to confront modeling uncertainties in damping, an important, yet inadequately understood, aspect in dynamic system identification problems. The usual method of least-square solution is through a regularized Gauss-Newton method (GNM) whose results are known to be sensitively dependent on the regularization parameter and data noise intensity. Finite time,recursive integration of the pseudo-dynamical GNM (PD-GNM) update equation addresses the major numerical difficulty associated with the near-zero singular values of the linearized operator and gives results that are not sensitive to the time step of integration. Therefore, we also propose a pseudo-dynamic stochastic filtering approach for the same problem using a parsimonious representation of states and specifically solve the linearized filtering equations through a pseudo-dynamic ensemble Kalman filter (PD-EnKF). For multiple sets of measurements involving various load cases, we expedite the speed of thePD-EnKF by proposing an inner iteration within every time step. Results using the pseudo-dynamic strategy obtained through PD-EnKF and recursive integration are compared with those from the conventional GNM, which prove that the PD-EnKF is the best performer showing little sensitivity to process noise covariance and yielding reconstructions with less artifacts even when the ensemble size is small.

Self-regularized pseudo time-marching schemes for structural system identification with static measurements

We explore the application of pseudo time marching schemes, involving either deterministic integration or stochastic filtering, to solve the inverse problem of parameter identification of large dimensional structural systems from partial and noisy measurements of strictly static response. Solutions of such non-linear inverse problems could provide useful local stiffness variations and do not have to confront modeling uncertainties in damping, an important, yet inadequately understood, aspect in dynamic system identification problems. The usual method of least-square solution is through a regularized Gauss-Newton method (GNM) whose results are known to be sensitively dependent on the regularization parameter and data noise intensity. Finite time, recursive integration of the pseudo-dynamical GNM (PD-GNM) update equation addresses the major numerical difficulty associated with the near-zero singular values of the linearized operator and gives results that are not sensitive to the time step of integration. Therefore, we also propose a pseudo-dynamic stochastic filtering approach for the same problem using a parsimonious representation of states and specifically solve the linearized filtering equations through apseudo-dynamic ensemble Kalman filter (PD-EnKF). For multiple sets ofmeasurements involving various load cases, we expedite the speed of the PD-EnKF by proposing an inner iteration within every time step. Results using the pseudo-dynamic strategy obtained through PD-EnKF and recursive integration are compared with those from the conventional GNM, which prove that the PD-EnKF is the best performer showing little sensitivity to process noise covariance and yielding reconstructions with less artifacts even when the ensemble size is small. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Topeliaaninen usko : Kirjailija Sakari Topelius uskontokasvattajana

ABSTRACT The author Zacharias Topelius as a religious educator The present study concerns the author Zacharias Topelius (1818-98) as a religious educator. The study´s main questions are as follows: What is the theological and pedagogical content of Topelius books and how is his religious instruction linked with the history of his time. The primary sources are his educational books Naturens bok (The Book of the Nature, 1856), Boken om vårt land (The Book of our Land, 1875) and Evangelium för Barnen (Gospel for Children, 1893), as well as his storybooks Läsning för barn I-VIII (Reading for Children I-VIII, 1865-96). The dissertation concerns the his-tory of religious education. Its primary method is background-based systematic analy-sis. In Topelius children s books the view of God is characterised both as an omnipresent spirit and as Providence, who guides world history according to his plan. In addition to Lutheranism this view is also influenced by Nationalism and Romanticism. The theological content of the books emphasises instruction in Christian life that is natural to normative children s books. Topelius strongly expresses the importance of a personal relationship to God, an idealistic Christian view of one s fellow man and of one s own nation as well as the value of nature conservation. The books of Topelius were some of the first educational works on nature preservation in Finland. The didactic quality of Topelius children s books was high for 19th century Finland. Their main emphasis in terms of educational goals is on civilisation (Bildung), self-awareness, national solidarity and living idealism. The pedagogical argumentation is mostly based on theological, historical, social and rational reasoning. The primary principles in Topelius teaching are Christian nationalism, idealistic harmony and the agrarian bourgeois. Christian nationalism is the main element of Topelius religious education. He considers the fatherland as a God-given project and the taking care of it as a part of holy service. Idealistic harmony is seen as the comprehensive development of one s character in the sense of romantic idealism. The agrarian bourgeois principle combines the Finnish peasant tradition with the values of 19th century modern bourgeois culture. I have named Topelius vision of religious education the Christian national project of civilisation (Bildung). Its main theses are home, religion and fatherland. The author himself strongly believed in this vision and never questioned it despite its national chauvinism and theological inconsistency. The religious ideology represented in Topelius educational works and storybooks was popular among pedagogues during the whole era of the Finnish folk school. It fit per-fectly with the Christian national discourse stemming from 19th century ideological ten-dencies. Due to their appropriate content combined with their practical language and pedagogical methods, the books were popular both at school and in the home for a long period of time. Therefore the books of Topelius aptly symbolise the religious education of their time and manifest their author s pedagogical talent as a national religious educator and as a populariser of Christian nationalism. Topelius books have had a lasting influence on Finnish religiosity. Key words: Topelius, theology, religion, education, nationalism and national project

What do hydrological time series tell about climate change?

Yhteenveto: Mitä hydrologiset mallit kertovat ilmaston muutoksesta?

Time-Domain Criteria For L2-Stability Of Nonstationary Feedback-Systems

Criteria for the L2-stability of linear and nonlinear time-varying feedback systems are given. These are conditions in the time domain involving the solution of certain associated matrix Riccati equations and permitting the use of a very general class of L2-operators as multipliers.

Low Power continuous time common mode sensing for common mode feedback circuits

Continuous common mode feedback (CMFB) circuits having high input impedance and low distortion are proposed. The proposed circuits are characterized for 0.18 mu m CMOS process with 1.8 V supply. Simulation results indicate that the proposed common mode detector consumes no standby power and CMFB circuit consumes 27-34% less power than previous high swing CMFB circuits.