Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa

The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The maximum likelihood estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-1.52) for Guinea, 2.53 (95% CI: 2.41-2.67) for Sierra Leone and 1.59 (95% CI: 1.57-1.60) for Liberia. The model indicates that in Guinea and Sierra Leone the effective reproduction number might have dropped to around unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates no decline in the effective reproduction number by end-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.

Occupational exposure to magnetic fields and electric shocks and risk of ALS: The Swiss National Cohort

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has been associated with exposures in so-called 'electrical occupations'. It is unclear if this possible link may be explained by exposure to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF) or by electrical shocks. We evaluated ALS mortality in 2000-2008 and exposure to ELF-MF and electrical shocks in the Swiss National Cohort, using job exposure matrices for occupations at censuses 1990 and 2000. We compared 2.2 million workers with high or medium vs. low exposure to ELF-MF and electrical shocks using Cox proportional hazard models. Results showed that mortality from ALS was higher in people who had medium or high ELF-MF exposure in both censuses (HR 1.55 (95% CI 1.11-2.15)), but closer to unity for electrical shocks (HR 1.17 (95% CI 0.83-1.65)). When both exposures were included in the same model, the HR for ELF-MF changed little (HR 1.56), but the HR for electric shocks was attenuated to 0.97. In conclusion, there was an association between exposure to ELF-MF and mortality from ALS among workers with a higher likelihood of long-term exposure.

Virtopsy und damit verbundene rechtliche Rahmenbedingungen und Auswirkungen

Die Virtopsy ist eine progressive bildgebende Methode der Rechtsmedizin, mit welcher außergewöhnliche Todesfälle oder auch Verletzungen lebender Personen (klinisch forensische Bildgebung) untersucht werden können. Genutzt werden hierfür bildgebende Verfahren wie z. B. CT und MRT. Die Virtopsy an Verstorbenen bringt verschiedene Vorteile gegenüber einer Autopsie mit sich, wie beispielsweise die verständliche 3D-Darstellung. Demgegenüber ergeben sich aber auch Nachteile, wie etwa der Umstand, dass Organfarben nicht sichtbar sind. Per saldo überwiegen jedoch die Vorteile, insbesondere genießen bildgebende Untersuchungen bei Angehörigen aus Gründen der Pietät und der Religion eine größere Akzeptanz als konventionelle Leichenöffnungen. Die Virtopsy kann sowohl eine Autopsie ergänzen als auch eine Autopsie-Entscheidung erleichtern, indem sie Letzterer vorausgeht. David Alexander Zimmermann beschreibt in einer ersten monografischen Abhandlung zum Thema den umfassenden rechtlichen Rahmen für bildgebende Verfahren in der Forensik. Die rechtliche Diskussion umfasst dabei die Interpretation und Vergleichung rechtlicher Quellen sowohl aus verschiedenen Ländern wie z. B. Australien, Deutschland, Schweiz und USA, als auch aus unterschiedlichen Rechtsgebieten. Dabei richtet der Autor seinen Fokus auf die Festlegung gesetzlicher Grundlagen für forensische Bildgebung / Virtopsy und deren Zulässigkeit in Strafverfahren.

„Knallt‘s oder knallt‘s nicht?" - Dynamik der Gewalteskalation am Beispiel des Fussballstadions

Dynamik der Gewalteskalation bei kritischen Situationen am Beispiel des Fußballstadions Alain Brechbühl, Annemarie Schumacher-Dimech & Roland Seiler Institut für Sportwissenschaft, Universität Bern Schlüsselwörter: Zuschauergewalt, Wahrnehmung, Fußball, Massenveranstaltungen, Fan Einleitung Zuschauergewalt bei Fußballspielen ist in der Schweiz ein aktuelles Thema, wie etwa politische Debatten um Maßnahmen zur Prävention von Eskalationen zeigen. Während in anderen Ländern bereits verschiedene Studien durchgeführt wurden (bspw. Hylander & Granström, 2010), existiert in der Schweiz kaum Forschung zur Dynamik und den möglichen Faktoren, die den Unterschied zwischen einer Eskalation oder Nichteskalation ausmachen könnten. Insbesondere die Sicht beteiligter Personen ist dazu von entscheidender Bedeutung. Das vorliegende Projekt beschäftigt sich mit der subjektiv wahrgenommenen Gewaltsituation und deren zentralen Faktoren und Ursachen im Kontext des Fußballs. Methode Aufgrund der spärlichen Forschungslage in der Schweiz wurde eine explorative qualitative Studie mit involvierten und nichtinvolvierten Personen (Fußballfans, Sicherheitspersonal und die Polizei) durchgeführt, um Daten über kritische Situationen bei Spielen der Raiffeisen Super League zu erheben. Die ausgewählten Personen wurden einzeln mit narrativen Interviews zu der erlebten Situation befragt um genauere Erkenntnisse zur Situation zu erhalten. Zu vier Situationen wurden 34 Interviews durchgeführt (12 mit Polizeiangehörigen, 11 mit Fans, 9 mit Fanarbeitern und 2 mit Sicherheitsarbeitern). Die Auswertung erfolgte mit der interpretativen phänomenologischen Analyse. Ergebnisse Es zeigten sich individuelle und gruppenspezifische Wahrnehmungen in kritischen Situationen. Bei den befragten Personen herrschte häufig eine Tendenz zur (negativen) Stereotypisierung der gegenüberstehenden Gruppenmitglieder. Schnelle und klare Kommunikation, genügend Distanz zwischen den Gruppen und das Entfernen von gruppenspezifisch bedrohlichen Hinweisreizen (bspw. Polizei-Rüstungen) konnten als relevante Faktoren für gewaltfreie Lösungen festgestellt werden. Diskussion Die vorliegenden Ergebnisse sprechen für die Aufrechterhaltung einer differenzierten Betrachtungsweise und das Beiziehen von Vermittlungspersonen (von Fan- wie auch Polizeiseite) in kritischen Situationen, um Eskalationen vermeiden zu können. Es zeigen sich Ähnlichkeiten zu den Ergebnissen von Hylander & Granström (2010). Es werden noch weitere kritische Situationen analysiert, um konkrete Praxisempfehlungen zu formulieren. Literatur Hylander, I., & Granström, K. (2010). Organizing for a peaceful crowd: an example of a football match. Fo-rum Qualitative Social Research, 11 (2), Zugriff am 22.01.2014 unter http://www.qualitative-research.net/index.php/fqs/article/view/1462/2969.

Patient information leaflets: informing or frightening? A focus group study exploring patients' emotional reactions and subsequent behavior towards package leaflets of commonly prescribed medications in family practices.

BACKGROUND The purpose of patient information leaflets (PILs) is to inform patients about the administration, precautions and potential side effects of their prescribed medication. Despite European Commission guidelines aiming at increasing readability and comprehension of PILs little is known about the potential risk information has on patients. This article explores patients' reactions and subsequent behavior towards risk information conveyed in PILs of commonly prescribed drugs by general practitioners (GPs) for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes, hypertension or hypercholesterolemia; the most frequent cause for consultations in family practices in Germany. METHODS We conducted six focus groups comprising 35 patients which were recruited in GP practices. Transcripts were read and coded for themes; categories were created by abstracting data and further refined into a coding framework. RESULTS Three interrelated categories are presented: (i) The vast amount of side effects and drug interactions commonly described in PILs provoke various emotional reactions in patients which (ii) lead to specific patient behavior of which (iii) consulting the GP for assistance is among the most common. Findings show that current description of potential risk information caused feelings of fear and anxiety in the reader resulting in undesirable behavioral reactions. CONCLUSIONS Future PILs need to convey potential risk information in a language that is less frightening while retaining the information content required to make informed decisions about the prescribed medication. Thus, during the production process greater emphasis needs to be placed on testing the degree of emotional arousal provoked in patients when reading risk information to allow them to undertake a benefit-risk-assessment of their medication that is based on rational rather than emotional (fearful) reactions.

Frequency of and predictors for withholding patient safety concerns among oncology staff: a survey study.

Speaking up about patient safety is vital to avoid errors reaching the patient and to improve a culture of safety. This study investigated the prevalence of non-speaking up despite concerns for safety and aimed to identify predictors for withholding voice among healthcare professionals (HCPs) in oncology. A self-administered questionnaire assessed safety concerns, speaking up beliefs and behaviours among nurses and doctors from nine oncology departments. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify predictors for withholding safety concerns. A total of 1013 HCPs returned the completed survey (response rate 65%). Safety concerns were common among responders. Fifty-four per cent reported to recognise their colleagues making potentially harmful errors at least sometimes. A majority of responders reported at least some episodes of withholding concerns about patient safety. Thirty-seven per cent said they remained silent at least once when they had information that might have helped prevent an incident. Respondents believed that a high level of interpersonal, communication and coping skills are necessary to speak up about patient safety issues at their workplace. Higher levels of perceived advocacy for patient safety and psychological safety significantly decreased the frequency of withholding voice. Remaining silent about safety concerns is a common phenomenon in oncology. Improved strategies are needed to support staff in effective communication and make cancer care safer.

Detection and management of drug-resistant tuberculosis in HIV-infected patients in lower-income countries.

SETTING Drug resistance threatens tuberculosis (TB) control, particularly among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected persons. OBJECTIVE To describe practices in the prevention and management of drug-resistant TB under antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in lower-income countries. DESIGN We used online questionnaires to collect program-level data on 47 ART programs in Southern Africa (n = 14), East Africa (n = 8), West Africa (n = 7), Central Africa (n = 5), Latin America (n = 7) and the Asia-Pacific (n = 6 programs) in 2012. Patient-level data were collected on 1002 adult TB patients seen at 40 of the participating ART programs. RESULTS Phenotypic drug susceptibility testing (DST) was available in 36 (77%) ART programs, but was only used for 22% of all TB patients. Molecular DST was available in 33 (70%) programs and was used in 23% of all TB patients. Twenty ART programs (43%) provided directly observed therapy (DOT) during the entire course of treatment, 16 (34%) during the intensive phase only, and 11 (23%) did not follow DOT. Fourteen (30%) ART programs reported no access to second-line anti-tuberculosis regimens; 18 (38%) reported TB drug shortages. CONCLUSIONS Capacity to diagnose and treat drug-resistant TB was limited across ART programs in lower-income countries. DOT was not always implemented and drug supplies were regularly interrupted, which may contribute to the global emergence of drug resistance.

Oral or transdermal opioids for osteoarthritis of the knee or hip.

BACKGROUND Osteoarthritis is the most common form of joint disease and the leading cause of pain and physical disability in older people. Opioids may be a viable treatment option if people have severe pain or if other analgesics are contraindicated. However, the evidence about their effectiveness and safety is contradictory. This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 2009. OBJECTIVES To determine the effects on pain, function, safety, and addiction of oral or transdermal opioids compared with placebo or no intervention in people with knee or hip osteoarthritis. SEARCH METHODS We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL (up to 28 July 2008, with an update performed on 15 August 2012), checked conference proceedings, reference lists, and contacted authors. SELECTION CRITERIA We included randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials that compared oral or transdermal opioids with placebo or no treatment in people with knee or hip osteoarthritis. We excluded studies of tramadol. We applied no language restrictions. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS We extracted data in duplicate. We calculated standardised mean differences (SMDs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for pain and function, and risk ratios for safety outcomes. We combined trials using an inverse-variance random-effects meta-analysis. MAIN RESULTS We identified 12 additional trials and included 22 trials with 8275 participants in this update. Oral oxycodone was studied in 10 trials, transdermal buprenorphine and oral tapentadol in four, oral codeine in three, oral morphine and oral oxymorphone in two, and transdermal fentanyl and oral hydromorphone in one trial each. All trials were described as double-blind, but the risk of bias for other domains was unclear in several trials due to incomplete reporting. Opioids were more beneficial in pain reduction than control interventions (SMD -0.28, 95% CI -0.35 to -0.20), which corresponds to a difference in pain scores of 0.7 cm on a 10-cm visual analogue scale (VAS) between opioids and placebo. This corresponds to a difference in improvement of 12% (95% CI 9% to 15%) between opioids (41% mean improvement from baseline) and placebo (29% mean improvement from baseline), which translates into a number needed to treat (NNTB) to cause one additional treatment response on pain of 10 (95% CI 8 to 14). Improvement of function was larger in opioid-treated participants compared with control groups (SMD -0.26, 95% CI -0.35 to -0.17), which corresponds to a difference in function scores of 0.6 units between opioids and placebo on a standardised Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC) disability scale ranging from 0 to 10. This corresponds to a difference in improvement of 11% (95% CI 7% to 14%) between opioids (32% mean improvement from baseline) and placebo (21% mean improvement from baseline), which translates into an NNTB to cause one additional treatment response on function of 11 (95% CI 7 to 14). We did not find substantial differences in effects according to type of opioid, analgesic potency, route of administration, daily dose, methodological quality of trials, and type of funding. Trials with treatment durations of four weeks or less showed larger pain relief than trials with longer treatment duration (P value for interaction = 0.001) and there was evidence for funnel plot asymmetry (P value = 0.054 for pain and P value = 0.011 for function). Adverse events were more frequent in participants receiving opioids compared with control. The pooled risk ratio was 1.49 (95% CI 1.35 to 1.63) for any adverse event (9 trials; 22% of participants in opioid and 15% of participants in control treatment experienced side effects), 3.76 (95% CI 2.93 to 4.82) for drop-outs due to adverse events (19 trials; 6.4% of participants in opioid and 1.7% of participants in control treatment dropped out due to adverse events), and 3.35 (95% CI 0.83 to 13.56) for serious adverse events (2 trials; 1.3% of participants in opioid and 0.4% of participants in control treatment experienced serious adverse events). Withdrawal symptoms occurred more often in opioid compared with control treatment (odds ratio (OR) 2.76, 95% CI 2.02 to 3.77; 3 trials; 2.4% of participants in opioid and 0.9% of participants control treatment experienced withdrawal symptoms). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS The small mean benefit of non-tramadol opioids are contrasted by significant increases in the risk of adverse events. For the pain outcome in particular, observed effects were of questionable clinical relevance since the 95% CI did not include the minimal clinically important difference of 0.37 SMDs, which corresponds to 0.9 cm on a 10-cm VAS.

Tools & Techniques - Statistics: Propensity score techniques.

Propensity score (PS) techniques are useful if the number of potential confounding pretreatment variables is large and the number of analysed outcome events is rather small so that conventional multivariable adjustment is hardly feasible. Only pretreatment characteristics should be chosen to derive PS, and only when they are probably associated with outcome. A careful visual inspection of PS will help to identify areas of no or minimal overlap, which suggests residual confounding, and trimming of the data according to the distribution of PS will help to minimise residual confounding. Standardised differences in pretreatment characteristics provide a useful check of the success of the PS technique employed. As with conventional multivariable adjustment, PS techniques cannot account for confounding variables that are not or are only imperfectly measured, and no PS technique is a substitute for an adequately designed randomised trial.

Alternde Gesellschaft. Soziale Herausforderungen des längeren Lebens

Das gesellschaftliche Bild des Alters und seine Realität haben sich stark verändert - Menschen können im Durchschnitt bis in das achtzigste Lebensjahr ein aktives Leben führen. Hegemoniale Altersbilder von den fitten und jungen Alten nehmen diese Situation auf. Aber es gibt auch Ambivalenzen: Angesichts wachsender sozialer Ungleichheit kommen längst nicht alle Älteren in den Genuss eines guten Alters. Der Band diskutiert die Situation der "Neuen Alten" aus sozialwissenschaftlichen, ökonomischen, religionswissenschaftlichen und theologischen Perspektiven.

Soziales Europa?

Nach innen heterogen, konfrontiert mit den Folgen einer massiven Finanz- und Schuldenkrise und gekennzeichnet von zunehmender sozialer Ungleichheit, nach außen hart gegen Flüchtlinge und Migranten und auf den Schutz der eigenen ökonomischen Interessen bedacht, scheint die Europäische Union von der Idee eines 'sozialen Europa' weit entfernt. Gleichwohl ist das Projekt einer europäischen Einigung fest mit der Vorstellung eines 'europäischen Sozialmodells' verbunden, in dem die verlässliche soziale Absicherung der Menschen in Europa hohe Priorität geniesst, auch wenn über die Form der Umsetzung intensiv gestritten wird. Im europäischen sozialen Protestantismus, der die wohlfahrtsstaatlichen Kulturen Europas in vielfältiger Weise geprägt hat, wird die Frage nach Möglichkeit und Gestalt einer möglichst effektiven, effizienten und gerechten sozialen Absicherung im europäischen Kontext in unterschiedlicher Weise diskutiert. Der Band informiert über institutionell-politische Strukturen, soziale Problemkonstellationen, ökonomische und politische Optionen und sozialethische Grundprinzipien für die Gestaltung eines 'sozialen Europa' und bietet Diskussionsstände aus vielfältigen Perspektiven des europäischen Protestantismus.

Soziales Europa?

Das weitverbreitete Konzept eines 'europäischen Sozialmodells' wird dargestellt und anhand eines konkreten Problems - der auch als 'Prekarisierung der Arbeit' bekannten Zunahme mangelhaft gesicherter und insofern problematischer Arbeitsverhältnisse im zeitgenössischen Europa - einem ethischen Realitätstest unterzogen. In einem Ausblick werden Schlussfolgerungen für die Weiterentwicklung dieses Modells gezogen.

Euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a prospective study.

The objective of this study is to determine if quality of care, symptoms of depression, disease characteristics and quality of life of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are related to requesting euthanasia or physician-assisted suicide (EAS) and dying due to EAS. Therefore, 102 ALS patients filled out structured questionnaires every 3 months until death and the results were correlated with EAS. Thirty-one percent of the patients requested EAS, 69 % of whom eventually died as a result of EAS (22 % of all patients). Ten percent died during continuous deep sedation; only one of them had explicitly requested death to be hastened. Of the patients who requested EAS, 86 % considered the health care to be good or excellent, 16 % felt depressed, 45 % experienced loss of dignity and 42 % feared choking. These percentages do not differ from the number of patients who did not explicitly request EAS. The frequency of consultations of professional caregivers and availability of appliances was similar in both groups. Our findings do not support continuous deep sedation being used as a substitute for EAS. In this prospective study, no evidence was found for a relation between EAS and the quality and quantity of care received, quality of life and symptoms of depression in patients with ALS. Our study does not support the notion that unmet palliative care needs are related to EAS.