Demographic models and the management of endangered species: a case study of the critically endangered Seychelles magpie robin

1. Demographic models are assuming an important role in management decisions for endangered species. Elasticity analysis and scope for management analysis are two such applications. Elasticity analysis determines the vital rates that have the greatest impact on population growth. Scope for management analysis examines the effects that feasible management might have on vital rates and population growth. Both methods target management in an attempt to maximize population growth. 2. The Seychelles magpie robin Copsychus sechellarum is a critically endangered island endemic, the population of which underwent significant growth in the early 1990s following the implementation of a recovery programme. We examined how the formal use of elasticity and scope for management analyses might have shaped management in the recovery programme, and assessed their effectiveness by comparison with the actual population growth achieved. 3. The magpie robin population doubled from about 25 birds in 1990 to more than 50 by 1995. A simple two-stage demographic model showed that this growth was driven primarily by a significant increase in the annual survival probability of first-year birds and an increase in the birth rate. Neither the annual survival probability of adults nor the probability of a female breeding at age 1 changed significantly over time. 4. Elasticity analysis showed that the annual survival probability of adults had the greatest impact on population growth. There was some scope to use management to increase survival, but because survival rates were already high (> 0.9) this had a negligible effect on population growth. Scope for management analysis showed that significant population growth could have been achieved by targeting management measures at the birth rate and survival probability of first-year birds, although predicted growth rates were lower than those achieved by the recovery programme when all management measures were in place (i.e. 1992-95). 5. Synthesis and applications. We argue that scope for management analysis can provide a useful basis for management but will inevitably be limited to some extent by a lack of data, as our study shows. This means that identifying perceived ecological problems and designing management to alleviate them must be an important component of endangered species management. The corollary of this is that it will not be possible or wise to consider only management options for which there is a demonstrable ecological benefit. Given these constraints, we see little role for elasticity analysis because, when data are available, a scope for management analysis will always be of greater practical value and, when data are lacking, precautionary management demands that as many perceived ecological problems as possible are tackled.

On the principal eigenvalue of a Robin problem with a large parameter

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the principal eigenvalue of a Robin (or generalised Neumann) problem with a large parameter in the boundary condition for the Laplacian in a piecewise smooth domain. We show that the leading asymptotic term depends only on the singularities of the boundary of the domain, and give either explicit expressions or two-sided estimates for this term in a variety of situations.

“Normality is threatened by the Monster”: Robin Wood, Romero and zombies

A tribute to Robin Wood, focusing on his influence on horror criticism, and more specifically, on his appraisal of George A. Romero as ‘a great and audacious filmmaker’ through detailed consideration of his zombie movies. The article considers the key elements of his extraordinary influence on horror criticism, and a detailed examination of the monster which most directly responds to horror’s potential ambivalence: the zombie. In order to consider the ambivalence in the relationship between normality and the monster – that central and most important component of Wood’s horror criticism – created by Romero’s zombies, analysis focuses on the materiality of the films through close attention to the bodies on-screen.

Upper limit on the cosmic-ray photon flux above 10(19) eV using the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory

A method is developed to search for air showers initiated by photons using data recorded by the surface detector of the Auger Observatory. The approach is based on observables sensitive to the longitudinal shower development, the signal risetime and the curvature of the shower front. Applying this method to the data, tipper limits on the flux of photons of 3.8 x 10(-3), 2.5 x 10(-3), and 2.2 x 10(-3) km(-2) sr(-1) yr(-1) above 10(19) eV, 2 x 10(19) eV, and 4 x 10(19) eV are derived, with corresponding limits on the fraction of photons being 2.0%, 5.1%, and 31% (all limits at 95% c.l.). These photon limits disfavor certain exotic models of sources of cosmic rays. The results also show that the approach adopted by the Auger Observatory to calibrate the shower energy is not strongly biased by a contamination from photons. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Advanced functionality for radio analysis in the Offline software framework of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The advent of the Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) necessitates the development of a powerful framework for the analysis of radio measurements of cosmic ray air showers. As AERA performs ""radio-hybrid"" measurements of air shower radio emission in coincidence with the surface particle detectors and fluorescence telescopes of the Pierre Auger Observatory, the radio analysis functionality had to be incorporated in the existing hybrid analysis solutions for fluorescence and surface detector data. This goal has been achieved in a natural way by extending the existing Auger Offline software framework with radio functionality. In this article, we lay out the design, highlights and features of the radio extension implemented in the Auger Offline framework. Its functionality has achieved a high degree of sophistication and offers advanced features such as vectorial reconstruction of the electric field, advanced signal processing algorithms, a transparent and efficient handling of FFTs, a very detailed simulation of detector effects, and the read-in of multiple data formats including data from various radio simulation codes. The source code of this radio functionality can be made available to interested parties on request. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trigger and aperture of the surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory consists of 1600 water-Cherenkov detectors, for the study of extensive air showers (EAS) generated by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays. We describe the trigger hierarchy, from the identification of candidate showers at the level of a single detector, amongst a large background (mainly random single cosmic ray muons), up to the selection of real events and the rejection of random coincidences. Such trigger makes the surface detector array fully efficient for the detection of EAS with energy above 3 x 10(18) eV, for all zenith angles between 0 degrees and 60 degrees, independently of the position of the impact point and of the mass of the primary particle. In these range of energies and angles, the exposure of the surface array can be determined purely on the basis of the geometrical acceptance. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric effects on extensive air showers observed with the surface detector of the Pierre Auger observatory

Atmospheric parameters, Such as pressure (P), temperature (T) and density (rho proportional to P/T), affect the development of extensive air showers initiated by energetic cosmic rays. We have Studied the impact of atmospheric variations on extensive air showers by means of the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The rate of events shows a similar to 10% seasonal modulation and similar to 2% diurnal one. We find that the observed behaviour is explained by a model including the effects associated with the variations of P and rho. The former affects the longitudinal development of air showers while the latter influences the Moliere radius and hence the lateral distribution of the shower particles. The model is validated with full simulations of extensive air showers using atmospheric profiles measured at the site of the Pierre Auger Observatory. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Upper limit on the cosmic-ray photon fraction at EeV energies from the Pierre Auger Observatory

From direct observations of the longitudinal development of ultra-high energy air showers performed with the Pierre Auger Observatory, upper limits of 3.8%, 2.4%, 3.5% and 11.7% (at 95% c.l.) are obtained on the fraction of cosmic-ray photons above 2, 3, 5 and 10 EeV (1 EeV equivalent to 10(18) eV), respectively. These are the first experimental limits on ultra-high energy photons at energies below 10 EeV. The results complement previous constraints on top-down models from array data and they reduce systematic uncertainties in the interpretation of shower data in terms of primary flux, nuclear composition and proton-air cross-section. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anisotropy and chemical composition of ultra-high energy cosmic rays using arrival directions measured by the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Collaboration has reported. evidence for anisotropy in the distribution of arrival directions of the cosmic rays with energies E > E(th) = 5.5 x 10(19) eV. These show a correlation with the distribution of nearby extragalactic objects, including an apparent excess around the direction of Centaurus A. If the particles responsible for these excesses at E > E(th) are heavy nuclei with charge Z, the proton component of the sources should lead to excesses in the same regions at energies E/Z. We here report the lack of anisotropies in these directions at energies above E(th)/Z (for illustrative values of Z = 6, 13, 26). If the anisotropies above E(th) are due to nuclei with charge Z, and under reasonable assumptions about the acceleration process, these observations imply stringent constraints on the allowed proton fraction at the lower energies.

Search for first harmonic modulation in the right ascension distribution of cosmic rays detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory

We present the results of searches for dipolar-type anisotropies in different energy ranges above 2.5 x 10(17) eV with the surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory, reporting on both the phase and the amplitude measurements of the first harmonic modulation in the right-ascension distribution. Upper limits on the amplitudes are obtained, which provide the most stringent bounds at present, being below 2% at 99% C.L. for EeV energies. We also compare our results to those of previous experiments as well as with some theoretical expectations. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.