A comparative value of electricity storage within GB market mechanisms

This paper investigates the value of a generic storage system within two GB market mechanisms and one ancillary service provision: the wholesale power market, the Balancing Mechanism and Firm Frequency Response (FFR). Three models are evaluated under perfect foresight and fixed horizon which is subsequently extended to explore the impact of a longer foresight on market revenues. The results show that comparatively, the balancing mechanism represents the highest source of potential revenues followed by the wholesale power market and Firm Frequency Response respectively. Longer horizons show diminishing returns, with the 1 day horizon providing the vast majority of total revenues. However storage power capacity utilization benefits from such long horizons. These results could imply that short horizons are very effective in capturing revenues in both the wholesale market and balancing mechanism whereas sizing of a storage system should take into consideration horizon foresight and accuracy for greater benefit.

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11–12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041–2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 ± 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39–0.49) K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6–21) mm yr−1 (more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

Long-run restrictions and survey forecasts of output, consumption and investment

We consider the extent to which long-horizon survey forecasts of consumption, investment and output growth are consistent with theory-based steady-state values, and whether imposing these restrictions on long-horizon forecasts will enhance their accuracy. The restrictions we impose are consistent with a two-sector model in which the variables grow at different rates in steady state. The restrictions are imposed by exponential-tilting of simple auxiliary forecast densities. We show that imposing the consumption-output restriction yields modest improvements in the long-horizon output growth forecasts, and larger improvements in the forecasts of the cointegrating combination of consumption and output: the transformation of the data on which accuracy is assessed plays an important role.

Sampling and analyzing metals in soils for archaeological prospection: a critique

This paper presents a critique of current methods of sampling and analyzing soils for metals in archaeological prospection. Commonly used methodologies in soil science are shown to be suitable for archaeological investigations, with a concomitant improvement in their resolution. Understanding the soil-fraction location, concentration range, and spatial distribution of autochthonous (native) soil metals is shown to be a vital precursor to archaeological-site investigations, as this is the background upon which anthropogenic deposition takes place. Nested sampling is suggested as the most cost-effective method of investigating the spatial variability in the autochthonous metal concentrations. The use of the appropriate soil horizon (or sampling depth) and point sampling are critical in the preparation of a sampling regime. Simultaneous extraction is proposed as the most efficient method of identifying the location and eventual fate of autochthonous and anthropogenic metals, respectively.

Forecasting elections

In this paper we assess opinion polls, prediction markets, expert opinion and statistical modelling over a large number of US elections in order to determine which perform better in terms of forecasting outcomes. In line with existing literature, we bias-correct opinion polls. We consider accuracy, bias and precision over different time horizons before an election, and we conclude that prediction markets appear to provide the most precise forecasts and are similar in terms of bias to opinion polls. We find that our statistical model struggles to provide competitive forecasts, while expert opinion appears to be of value. Finally we note that the forecast horizon matters; whereas prediction market forecasts tend to improve the nearer an election is, opinion polls appear to perform worse, while expert opinion performs consistently throughout. We thus contribute to the growing literature comparing election forecasts of polls and prediction markets.

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0–300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993–2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997–2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997–2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0–700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization ‘shock’ over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady heat uptake of approximately 0.9 ± 0.8 W m−2 (expressed relative to Earth’s surface area) between 1995 and 2002, which reduces to about 0.2 ± 0.6 W m−2 between 2004 and 2006, in qualitative agreement with recent analysis of Earth’s energy imbalance. There is a marked reduction in the ensemble spread of OHC trends below 300 m as the Argo profiling float observations become available in the early 2000s. In general, we suggest that ORAs should be treated with caution when employed to understand past ocean warming trends—especially when considering the deeper ocean where there is little in the way of observational constraints. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

Microcystins -LA, -YR, and -LR action on neutrophil migration

Microcystins (MCs) produced by some freshwater cyanobacterial species possess potent liver toxicity as evidenced by acute neutrophil infiltration. Here, we investigate the ability of three structurally distinct toxins (MC-LA, MC-LR, and MC-YR) to evoke neutrophil recruitment per se and their effects on migration pathways. Intravital Microscopic Studies showed that topical application of only MC-LR enhanced the numbers of rolling and adhered leukocytes in the endothelium of postcapillary mesenteric venules. The latter effects may be dependent upon induction of the synthesis and expression Of L-selectin and beta(2)-integrin in neutrophils, as assessed by flow cytometry and RT-PCR, respectively. Conversely, the three toxins promoted direct locomotion of neutrophils and enhanced their migration in response to NO, as measured by Boyden chamber assays, and increased intracellular calcium, a messenger in the chemotaxic process. In conclusion, our results show that MCs act on specific pathways of neutrophil recruitment, indicating their potential effect on neutrophils activation. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dietary Free Oleic and Linoleic Acid Enhances Neutrophil Function and Modulates the Inflammatory Response in Rats

The high ingestion of oleic (OLA) and linoleic (LNA) acids by Western populations, the presence of inflammatory diseases in these populations, and the importance of neutrophils in the inflammatory process led us to investigate the effects of oral ingestion of unesterified OLA and LNA on rat neutrophil function. Pure OLA and LNA were administered by gavage over 10 days. The doses used (0.11, 0.22 and 0.44 g/kg of body weight) were based on the Western consumption of OLA and LNA. Neither fatty acid affected food, calorie or water intake. The fatty acids were not toxic to neutrophils as evaluated by cytometry using propidium iodide (membrane integrity and DNA fragmentation). Neutrophil migration in response to intraperitoneal injection of glycogen and in the air pouch assay, was elevated after administration of either OLA or LNA. This effect was associated with enhancement of rolling and increased release of the chemokine CINC-2 alpha beta. Both fatty acids elevated l-selectin expression, whereas no effect on beta(2)-integrin expression was observed, as evaluated by flow cytometry. LNA increased the production of proinflammatory cytokines (IL-1 beta and CINC-2 alpha beta) by neutrophils after 4 h in culture and both fatty acids decreased the release of the same cytokines after 18 h. In conclusion, OLA and LNA modulate several functions of neutrophils and can influence the inflammatory process.

Short-chain fatty acids stimulate the migration of neutrophils to inflammatory sites

SCFAs (short-chain fatty acids) are produced by anaerobic bacterial fermentation. Increased concentrations of these fatty acids are observed in inflammatory conditions, such as periodontal disease, and at sites of anaerobic infection. In the present study, the effect of the SCFAs acetate, propionate and butyrate on neutrophil chemotaxis and migration was investigated. Experiments were carried out in rats and in vitro. The following parameters were measured: rolling, adherence, expression of adhesion molecules in neutrophils (L-selectin and beta 2 integrin), transmigration, air pouch influx of neutrophils and production of cytokines [CINC-2 alpha beta (cytokine-induced neutrophil chemoattractant-2 alpha beta), IL-1 beta (interleukin-1 beta), MIP-1 alpha (macrophage inflammatory protein-1 alpha) and TNF-alpha (tumour necrosis factor-alpha)]. SCFAs induced in vivo neutrophil migration and increased the release of CINC-2 alpha beta into the air pouch. These fatty acids increased the number of rolling and adhered cells as evaluated by intravital microscopy. SCFA treatment increased L-selectin expression on the neutrophil surface and L-selectin mRNA levels, but had no effect on the expression of beta 2 integrin. Propionate and butyrate also increased in vitro transmigration of neutrophils. These results indicate that SCFAs produced by anaerobic bacteria raise neutrophil migration through increased L-selectin expression on neutrophils and CINC-2 alpha beta release.

A novel bradykinin potentiating peptide isolated from Bothrops jararacussu venom using catallytically inactive oligopeptidase EP24.15

Characterization of the peptide content of venoms has a number of potential benefits for basic research, clinical diagnosis, development of new therapeutic agents, and production of antiserum. Here, we use a substrate-capture assay that employs a catalytically inactive mutant of thimet oligopeptidase (EC 3.4.24.15; EP24.15) to identify novel bioactive peptides in Bothrops jararacussu venom. Of the peptides captured with inactive EP24.15 and identified by mass spectrometry, three were previously identified bradykinin-potentiating peptides (BPP), < ENWPHPQIPP (Xc), < EGGWPRPGPEIPP (XIIIa) and < EARPPHPPIPP (XIe) (where < E is a pyroglutamyl residue). In addition, we identified a novel BPP peptide containing additional AP amino acids in the C-terminus (< EARPPHPPIPPAP); this novel peptide was named BPP-AP. Next, dermal and muscle microcirculations were visualized using intravital microscopy to establish the roles of peptides BPP-XIe and BPP-AP in this process. After local administration of peptide BPP-XIe (0.5 mu g.mu L-1), leukocyte rolling flux and adhesion were increased by fivefold in post-capillary venules, without any increments in vasodilatation of arterioles compared to control experiments. In contrast, local administration of BPP-AP (0.5 mu g.mu L-1) potently induced vasodilatation of arterioles (nearly 100% increase compared with the vehicle saline control), with only a small increase in leukocyte rolling flux. Therefore, the novel BPP-AP described herein has pharmacological advantages compared to the BPP-XIe. The present study further suggests that inactive oligopeptidase EP24.15 is a useful tool for the isolation of bioactive peptides from crude biological samples.

Effect of plant neutrophil elastase inhibitor on leucocyte migration, adhesion and cytokine release in inflammatory conditions

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE The serine and cysteine peptidase inhibitor, BbCI, isolated from Bauhinia bauhinioides seeds, is similar to the classical plant Kunitz inhibitor, STI, but lacks disulphide bridges and methionine residues. BbCI blocks activity of the serine peptidases, elastase (K(iapp) 5.3 nM) and cathepsin G (K(iapp) 160.0 nM), and the cysteine peptidase cathepsin L (K(iapp) 0.2 nM). These three peptidases play important roles in the inflammatory process. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH We measured the effects of BbCI on paw oedema and on leucocyte accumulation in pleurisy, both induced by carrageenan. Leucocyte-endothelial cell interactions in scrotal microvasculature in Wistar rats were investigated using intravital microscopy. Cytokine levels in pleural exudate and serum were measured by ELISA. KEY RESULTS Pretreatment of the animals with BbCI (2.5 mg.kg(-1)), 30 min before carrageenan-induced inflammation, effectively reduced paw oedema and bradykinin release, neutrophil migration into the pleural cavity. The number of rolling, adhered and migrated leucocytes at the spermatic fascia microcirculation following carrageenan injection into the scrotum were reduced by BbCI pretreatment. Furthermore, levels of the rat chemokine cytokine-induced neutrophil chemo-attractant-1 were significantly reduced in both pleural exudates and serum from animals pretreated with BbCI. Levels of interleukin-1 beta or tumour necrosis factor-alpha, however, did not change. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS Taken together, our data suggest that the anti-inflammatory properties of BbCI may be useful in investigations of other pathological processes in which human neutrophil elastase, cathepsin G and cathepsin L play important roles.

Hydralazine reduces leukocyte migration through different mechanisms in spontaneously hypertensive and normotensive rats

In addition to reducing blood pressure, hydralazine can reduce the production of inflammatory cytokines and reduce the expression of leukocyte adhesion molecules. Differences in leukocyte behavior and leukocyte adhesion molecule expression in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR) compared to normotensive rats have been reported. However, whether hydralazine can reduce leukocyte migration in vivo in hypertension and in normotension remains unknown. To address this question, male SHR and Wistar rats were treated for 15 days with hydralazine at a dose of similar to 3.5 mg/kg or similar to 14 mg/kg in their drinking water. The numbers of rollers and adherent and migrated cells were determined by direct vital microscopy, and blood pressure was assessed by tail plethysmography. In addition, following treatment with the higher dose, immunohistochemistry was used to measure the expression of intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), P-selectin, and platelet-endothelial cell adhesion molecule-1 (PECAM-1) in endothelial cells, while flow cytometry was used to evaluate the expression of leukocyte CD18 and L-selectin. Hydralazine reduced leukocyte adherence and migration in SHR either at the higher, that reduced blood pressure levels, or lower dose, which did not reduce it. Reduced ICAM-1 expression might be involved in the reduced migration observed in SHR. In Wistar rats, only at the higher dose hydralazine reduced blood pressure levels and leukocyte migration. Reduced P-selectin expression might be involved. We therefore conclude that hydralazine reduces leukocyte migration by different mechanisms in SHR and Wistar rats, specifically by reducing ICAM-1 expression in the former and P-selectin expression in the latter. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Amlodipine reduces the antimigratory effect of diclofenac in spontaneously hypertensive rats

Amlodipine, an antihypertensive drug, and diclofenac, an anti inflammatory drug, may generally be combined, particularly in elderly patients; therefore, the potential for their interaction is high. We aim to determine if amlodipine interferes with the antimigratory effect of diclofenac. For this, male spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHRs) were treated with either diclofenac (1 mg.kg(-1).d(-1), 15 d) alone or combined with amlodipine (10 mg.kg(-1).d(-1), 15 d). Leukocyte rolling, adherence, and migration were studied by intravital microscopy. Diclofenac did not change (180.0 +/- 2.3), whereas amlodipine combined (163.4 +/- 5.1) or not (156.3 +/- 4.3) with diclofienac reduced the blood pressure (BP) levels in SHR (183.1 +/- 4.4). Diclofenac and amlodipine reduced leukocyte adherence, migration, and ICAM-I expression, whereas only diclofenac reduced rolling leukocytes as well. Combined with amlodipine, the effect of the diclofenac was reduced. Neither treatment tested increased the venular shear rate or modified the venular diameters, number of circulating leukocytes, P-selectin, PECAM-1, L-selectin, or CD-18 expressions. No difference could be found in plasma concentrations of both drugs given alone or in association. In conclusion, amlodipine reduces leukocyte migration in SHR, reducing endothelial cell ICAM-1 expression. Amlodipine reduces the effect of the diclofenac, possibly by the same mechanism. A pharmacokinetic interaction as well as an effect on the other adhesion molecules tested could be discarded.