Under what conditions? Therapist and client characteristics moderate the role of change talk in brief motivational intervention.

OBJECTIVE: Client change talk has been proposed as a mechanism of change in motivational interviewing (MI) by mediating the link between therapist MI-consistent behaviors (MICO) and client behavioral outcomes. We tested under what circumstances this mechanism was supported in the context of a clinical trial of brief MI for heavy drinking among nontreatment seeking young men. METHOD: We conducted psycholinguistic coding of 174 sessions using the MI Skill Code 2.1 and derived the frequency of MICO and the strength of change talk (CTS) averaged over the session. CTS was examined as a mediator of the relationship between MICO and a drinking composite score measured at 3-month follow-up, controlling for the composite measure at baseline. Finally, we tested therapist gender and MI experience as well as client readiness to change and alcohol problem severity as moderators of this mediation model. RESULTS: CTS significantly predicted outcome (higher strength related to less drinking), but MICO did not predict CTS. However, CTS mediated the relationship between MICO and drinking outcomes when therapists had more experience in MI and when clients had more severe alcohol problems (i.e., significant conditional indirect effects). CONCLUSIONS: The mechanism hypothesized by MI theory was operative in our brief MI with heavy drinking young men, but only under particular conditions. Our results suggest that attention should be paid to therapist selection, training, and/or supervision until they reach a certain level of competence, and that MI might not be appropriate for nontreatment seeking clients drinking at a lower level of risk. (PsycINFO Database Record

Vulnerability of stream biota to climate change in mediterranean climate regions: a synthesis of ecological responses and conservation challenges

Freshwater species worldwide are experiencing dramatic declines partly attributable to ongoing climate change. It is expected that the future effects of climate change could be particularly severe in mediterranean climate (med-) regions, which host many endemic species already under great stress from the high level of human development. In this article, we review the climate and climate-induced changes in streams of med-regions and the responses of stream biota, focusing on both observed and anticipated ecological responses. We also discuss current knowledge gaps and conservation challenges. Expected climate alterations have already been observed in the last decades, and include: increased annual average air temperatures; decreased annual average precipitation; hydrologic alterations; and an increase in frequency, intensity and duration of extreme events, such as floods, droughts and fires. Recent observations, which are concordant with forecasts built, show stream biota of med-regions when facing climate changes tend to be displaced towards higher elevations and upper latitudes, communities tend to change their composition and homogenize, while some life-history traits seem to provide biota with resilience and resistance to adapt to the new conditions (as being short-lived, small, and resistant to low streamflow and desiccation). Nevertheless, such responses may be insufficient to cope with current and future environmental changes. Accurate forecasts of biotic changes and possible adaptations are difficult to obtain in med-regions mainly because of the difficulty of distinguishing disturbances due to natural variability from the effects of climate change, particularly regarding hydrology. Long-term studies are needed to disentangle such variability and improve knowledge regarding the ecological responses and the detection of early warning signals to climate change. Investments should focus on taxa beyond fish and macroinvertebrates, and in covering the less studied regions of Chile and South Africa. Scientists, policy makers and water managers must be involved in the climate change dialogue because the freshwater conservation concerns are huge.

Change points detection in crime-related time series: an on-line fuzzy approach based on a shape space representation

The extension of traditional data mining methods to time series has been effectively applied to a wide range of domains such as finance, econometrics, biology, security, and medicine. Many existing mining methods deal with the task of change points detection, but very few provide a flexible approach. Querying specific change points with linguistic variables is particularly useful in crime analysis, where intuitive, understandable, and appropriate detection of changes can significantly improve the allocation of resources for timely and concise operations. In this paper, we propose an on-line method for detecting and querying change points in crime-related time series with the use of a meaningful representation and a fuzzy inference system. Change points detection is based on a shape space representation, and linguistic terms describing geometric properties of the change points are used to express queries, offering the advantage of intuitiveness and flexibility. An empirical evaluation is first conducted on a crime data set to confirm the validity of the proposed method and then on a financial data set to test its general applicability. A comparison to a similar change-point detection algorithm and a sensitivity analysis are also conducted. Results show that the method is able to accurately detect change points at very low computational costs. More broadly, the detection of specific change points within time series of virtually any domain is made more intuitive and more understandable, even for experts not related to data mining.

Will climate change increase the risk of plant invasions into mountains?

Mountain ecosystems have been less adversely affected by invasions of non-native plants than most other ecosystems, partially because most invasive plants in the lowlands are limited by climate and cannot grow under harsher high-elevation conditions. However, with ongoing climate change, invasive species may rapidly move upwards and threaten mid- then high-elevation mountain ecosystems. We evaluated this threat by predicting current and future potential distributions of 48 invasive plant species distributed in Switzerland (CH) and New South Wales (NSW), two areas where climate interacts differently with the elevation gradient. Using a species distribution modeling approach combining two scales, which builds on high-resolution data (< 250 m) but accounts for the global climatic niche of species, we found that different environmental drivers limit the elevation range of invasive species in the two regions, leading to region-specific species responses to climate change. Whereas the optimal suitability for plant invaders is predicted to markedly shift from the lowland to the montane or subalpine zone in CH, such an upward shift is far less pronounced in NSW where montane and subalpine elevations are currently already suitable. Non-native species able to invade the upper reaches of mountains in a future climate will be cold-tolerant in the Swiss Alps but preferring wet soils in the Australian Alps. Other plant traits were only marginally associated with elevation limits. These results demonstrate that a more systematic consideration of future distributions of invasive species is required in conservation plans of not yet invaded mountainous ecosystems.

Ecological change predicts population dynamics and genetic diversity over 120 000 years.

While ecological effects on short-term population dynamics are well understood, their effects over millennia are difficult to demonstrate and convincing evidence is scant. Using coalescent methods, we analysed past population dynamics of three lizard species (Psammodromus hispanicus, P. edwardsianus, P. occidentalis) and linked the results with climate change data covering the same temporal horizon (120 000 years). An increase in population size over time was observed in two species, and in P. occidentalis, no change was observed. Temporal changes in temperature seasonality and the maximum temperature of the warmest month were congruent with changes in population dynamics observed for the three species and both variables affected population density, either directly or indirectly (via a life-history trait). These results constitute the first solid link between ecological change and long-term population dynamics. The results moreover suggest that ecological change leaves genetic signatures that can be retrospectively traced, providing evidence that ecological change is a crucial driver of genetic diversity and speciation.

Predicted decrease in global climate suitability masks regional complexity of invasive fruit fly species response to climate change

Climate change affects the rate of insect invasions as well as the abundance, distribution and impacts of such invasions on a global scale. Among the principal analytical approaches to predicting and understanding future impacts of biological invasions are Species Distribution Models (SDMs), typically in the form of correlative Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). An underlying assumption of ENMs is that species-environment relationships remain preserved during extrapolations in space and time, although this is widely criticised. The semi-mechanistic modelling platform, CLIMEX, employs a top-down approach using species ecophysiological traits and is able to avoid some of the issues of extrapolation, making it highly applicable to investigating biological invasions in the context of climate change. The tephritid fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) comprise some of the most successful invasive species and serious economic pests around the world. Here we project 12 tephritid species CLIMEX models into future climate scenarios to examine overall patterns of climate suitability and forecast potential distributional changes for this group. We further compare the aggregate response of the group against species-specific responses. We then consider additional drivers of biological invasions to examine how invasion potential is influenced by climate, fruit production and trade indices. Considering the group of tephritid species examined here, climate change is predicted to decrease global climate suitability and to shift the cumulative distribution poleward. However, when examining species-level patterns, the predominant directionality of range shifts for 11 of the 12 species is eastward. Most notably, management will need to consider regional changes in fruit fly species invasion potential where high fruit production, trade indices and predicted distributions of these flies overlap.

Tietointensiivisten yrityspalveluiden tuotteistaminen Case: Lappeenrannan teknillisen yliopiston Tietohallinto

Työ käsittelee tietohallintoa tietointensiivisenä yrityspalveluna Lappeenrannan teknillisessä yliopistossa. Yliopiston tulee keskittyä omaan ydinosaamiseensa sekä erottaa sisäiset yrityspalvelut omiksi kokonaisuuksikseen. Tähän on käytetty tietohallinnon osalta tilaaja tuottajamallia. Mallin puitteissa tietohallintoyksikkö on kattavasti tunnistanut ja määritellyt oman toimintansa sekä asiakkaidensa perustarpeet. Tietohallinnon palvelut ovat tietointensiivisiä yrityspalveluita, joiden tarkoituksena on täydentää asiakkaiden osaamista ja kykyä tuottaa innovaatioita sekä välittää muualla tuotettua tietoa ja teknisiä ratkaisuja tähän tarpeeseen. Tietointensiivisen palveluntuottajan asiantuntijuus on kokemusperäistä ja hiljaista tietoa, jota on lähtökohtaisesti vaikea muuttaa organisatoriseksi tiedoksi eli lisäarvoksi organisaation toiminnalle. Tuotteistamista on hyödynnetty tietohallinnon prosessien muuttamiseksi eksplisiittisiksi. Tuotteistamalla standardoidaan prosesseihin liittyvät parhaat käytänteet, joka tarkoittaa kokemusperäisesti hyväksi havaittujen toimintatapojen rutinoimista. Tuotetut palvelut on tuotteistettu palvelupaketeiksi, joista on laadittu yksityiskohtainen palvelukuvaus sekä laskettu tuotekohtainen hinta. Palvelumallin soveltaminen takaa yksikkökustannusten, skaalaetujen, riskin jakaantumisen ja teknologisen kehityksen optimoinnin yliopistossa.

Prices versus exams as strategic instruments for competing universities

In this paper we investigate the optimal choice of prices and/or exams by universities in the presence of credit constraints. We first compare the optimal behavior of a public, welfare maximizing, monopoly and a private, profit maximizing, monopoly. Then we model competition between a public and a private institution and investigate the new role of exams/prices in this environment. We find that, under certain circumstances, the public university may have an interest to raise tuition fees from minimum levels if it cares for global welfare. This will be the case provided that (i) the private institution has higher quality and uses only prices to select applicants, or (ii) the private institution has lower quality and uses also exams to select students. When this is the case, there are efficiency grounds for raising public prices

Climate Change and the Cost of Carbon Sequestration: The Case of Forest Management

The Kyoto protocol allows Annex I countries to deduct carbon sequestered by land use, land-use change and forestry from their national carbon emissions. Thornley and Cannell (2000) demonstrated that the objectives of maximizing timber and carbon sequestration are not complementary. Based on this finding, this paper determines the optimal selective management regime taking into account the underlying biophysical and economic processes. The results show that the net benefits of carbon storage only compensate the decrease in net benefits of timber production once the carbon price has exceeded a certain threshold value. The sequestration costs are significantly lower than previous estimates

Analysis of outliers in electricity spot prices with exampleof New England and New Zealand markets

Electricity spot prices have always been a demanding data set for time series analysis, mostly because of the non-storability of electricity. This feature, making electric power unlike the other commodities, causes outstanding price spikes. Moreover, the last several years in financial world seem to show that ’spiky’ behaviour of time series is no longer an exception, but rather a regular phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to seek patterns and relations within electricity price outliers and verify how they affect the overall statistics of the data. For the study techniques like classical Box-Jenkins approach, series DFT smoothing and GARCH models are used. The results obtained for two geographically different price series show that patterns in outliers’ occurrence are not straightforward. Additionally, there seems to be no rule that would predict the appearance of a spike from volatility, while the reverse effect is quite prominent. It is concluded that spikes cannot be predicted based only on the price series; probably some geographical and meteorological variables need to be included in modeling.

Strategiamenetelmän hyödyntäminen huonekaluliiketoiminnan kehittämisessä

Strategia on yrityksen toiminnan perusta. Perinteisillä toimialoilla ei välttämättä nähdä tavoitteellisen strategian tarpeellisuutta ja tärkeä strategiasuunnittelu jää toissijaiseksi. Löytämällä erottuva strategia omaa yritys kilpailuedun. Sinisen meren strategia on teoreettinen viitekehys luoda erilaistavaa liiketoimintaa. Strategian avulla voidaan tunnistaa ja luoda strategiaprofiili uudelle liiketoiminnalle jossa kilpailu ei tehnyt toiminnasta liian haavoittuvaista. Tämä nykytilanteen analysointiin ja siitä erilaistumiseen perustuva muutos voi liittyä itse tuotteeseen tai palveluun, sen tuotteistamiseen tai tuotteen jakelutien uudelleenasemointiin. Strategiatyön tarpeellisuus huonekalujen valmistamisessa ja myynnissä on muuttuvassa tilanteessa avainasemassa. Korkea valmistamisen kustannustaso ei mahdollista kilpailua edullisien tuontituotteiden kanssa ja korkeamman hintatason tuotteilla on toisaalta rajattu ostajakunta sisämarkkinoilla. Monelle toimijalle vientityön aloittaminen on riskialtis kustannuserä. Huonekaluteollisuudessa ja –jakeluteissä on ylikapasiteettia suhteessa kannattavaan liiketoimintaan. Erilaistavina markkinatekijöinä on pidetty hintaa molemmissa ääripäissä, laatua ja designiä. Hyvän jakelutien omaavat yritykset ovat hoitaneet valtakunnallisen myynnin karsien pienet toimijat alalta. Valmistuksessa innovatiivisuus perustuu lähinnä tehokkaaseen tuotantotekniikkaan, mikä osaltaan on nostanut investointien tasoa ja toteutuksen mielekkyyttä. Tuotteena huonekalu on kuitenkin teknisiltä ominaisuuksiltaan yleensä matala ja jo pienellä pääomalla on aloitettavissa tuotannollinen toiminta, mutta tällöin ei menestytä välttämättä tuottavuudessa. Uusina tekijöinä kompleksisessa tilanteessa on nähtävissä voimakkaasti tulossa oleva ympäristöarvojen suurempi huomioiminen. Näistä elementeistä voidaan etsiä strategiaprofiilin avulla uusia markkinarajapintoja, joissa kilpailutilanne mahdollistaa kannattavan liiketoiminnan. Työssä tutkitaan strategiamenetelmän hyödyntämismahdollisuutta, sen perusteita ja tarpeellisuutta perinteisen muutosjäykän teollisuudenalan ja kilpailtujen huonekalumarkkinoiden segmentissä. Uuden toimintamallin tarpeen, strategian, ymmärtämiseksi on tiedostettava ympäristössä tapahtuneet muutokset ja kartoitettava nykyinen strategiaprofiili. Tähän liittyen läpikäydään ne seikat jotka ovat aiheuttaneet nykytilanteen ja näin muutostarpeen tässä markkinassa.

Theta EEG oscillatory activity and auditory change detection

The mismatch negativity is an electrophysiological marker of auditory change detection in the event-related brain potential and has been proposed to reflect an automatic comparison process between an incoming stimulus and the representation of prior items in a sequence. There is evidence for two main functional subcomponents comprising the MMN, generated by temporal and frontal brain areas, respectively. Using data obtained in an MMN paradigm, we performed time-frequency analysis to reveal the changes in oscillatory neural activity in the theta band. The results suggest that the frontal component of the MMN is brought about by an increase in theta power for the deviant trials and, possibly, by an additional contribution of theta phase alignment. By contrast, the temporal component of the MMN, best seen in recordings from mastoid electrodes, is generated by phase resetting of theta rhythm with no concomitant power modulation. Thus, frontal and temporal MMN components do not only differ with regard to their functional significance but also appear to be generated by distinct neurophysiological mechanisms.