997 resultados para Population forecasting
Resumo:
In this paper, we viewed the diel vertical migration (DVM) of copepod in the context of the animal's immediate behaviors of everyday concerns and constructed an instantaneous behavioral criterion effective for DVM and non-DVM behaviors. This criterion employed the function of 'venturous revenue' (VR), which is the product of the food intake and probability of the survival, to evaluate the gains and losses of the behaviors that the copepod could trade-off. The optimal behaviors are to find the optimal habitats to maximize VR. Two types of VRs are formulated and tested by the theoretical analysis and simulations. The sensed VR, monitoring the real-time changes of trade-offs and thereby determining the optimum habitat, is validated to be the effective objective function for the optimization of the behavior; whereas, the realized VR, quantifying the actual profit obtained by an optimal copepod in the sensed-VR-determined habitat, defines the life history of a specific age cohort. The achievement of a robust copepod overwintering stock through integrating the dynamics of the constituent age cohorts subjected to the instantaneous behavioral criterion for DVM clearly exemplified a possible way bridging the immediate pursuit of an individual and the end success of the population. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Resumo:
The impacts of Prorocentrum donghaiense Lu and Alexandrium catenella Balech, causative species of the large-scale HAB in the East China Sea, were studied under laboratory conditions. According to bloom densities, the effects of monoculture and mixture of the two species were examined on the egg-hatching success of Argopecten irradians Lamarck, and the population growth of Brachionus plicatilis Muller and Moina mongolica Daday. The results showed that monoculture of A. catenella had a significant inhibition on the egg hatching success of A. irradians, and the population growth of B. plicatilis and M. mongolica. The median effective densities ( EDSo) inhibiting the egg hatching success of A. irradians for 24 h and the population growth of B. plicatilis and M. mongolica for 96 h were 800, 630, and 2 400 cells/cm(3), respectively. Monoculture of P. donghaiense has no such inhibitory effect on the egg hatching success of A. irradians; P. donghaiense at lower suitable densities could sustain the population growth of B. plicatilis (1 x 10(4) similar to 3 x 10(4)cells/cm(3)) and M. mongolica (2 x 10(4) similar to 5 x 10(4) cells/cm(3)); P. doaghaiense at higher densities had significantly adverse effect on the population growth of B. plicatilis (4 x 10(4) similar to 10 x 10(4) cells/cm(3)) and M. mongolica (10 x 10(4) cells/cm(3)). When the two algae were mixed according to bloom densities, P. donghaiense at suitable densities to some extent could decrease the toxicity of A. catenella to B. plicatilis and M. mongolica. The results indicated that the large-scale HAB in the East China Sea could have adverse effect on zooplankton, and might further influence the marine ecosystem, especially when there was also Alexandrium bloom.
Resumo:
A base population of the bay scallop, Argopecten irradians irradians Lamarck, was produced by crossing two cultured bay scallop populations. After 1 year of rearing, the top 10% truncation selection of the top 10% (i=1.755) was carried out in the base population of about 1300 adults. A control parental group with a an identical number to the select parental group was randomly selected from the entire population before isolation of the select parental group. The result showed that, at the larval stage, the growth rate of larvae in the selected line was significantly higher than that of the control (P < 0.05), and that the genetic gain was 6.78%. Owing to the lower density of control at the spat stage, the mean shell length of the control line was larger than that of the select line at day 100. When the same density was adjusted between two lines in the grow-out stage (from day 100 to 160), the daily growth rate of the selected line was significantly higher than that of the control line (P < 0.05). Survival of the select line was significantly larger than that of the control line in the grow-out stage. In conclusion, the results obtained from this experiment indicate that selective breeding from a base population with a high genetic diversity established by mass spawning between different populations appears to be a promising method of genetic improvement in bay scallop, A. irradians irradians Lamarck.
Resumo:
In 2002, six cohorts of broodstock bay scallop Argopecten irradians irradians (Ne=1, 2, 10, 30, 50 and control) were randomly chosen from a population of bay scallop to produce offspring. After one year rearing, with the progeny matured, the similar experiment was done to produce the F-2 generation. To determine the magnitude of Ne effects, the growth and survival rates in larvae and adult of six F2 groups were compared. Results showed that inbreeding depression existed not only in the Ne=1 group but also in the Ne=2 group. The growth and survival rates of the two groups were significantly lower than those of the other groups (Ne=10, 30, 50, control), and there were no significant differences among the latter (P>0.05). At the same time, the amount of depression in the Ne=1 group was significantly higher than that of the Ne=2 group (P<0.05). These results indicated that the low effective population size (Ne), which increases the possibility of inbreeding, could lead to some harmful effects on the offspring. So it is essential to maintain a high level of Ne in commercial seed production. Furthermore, as the high fecundity of bay scallop might lead to increased inbreeding, selecting broodstock from different growout sites is recommended.
Resumo:
Introduced species often start with limited genetic variability, which is problematic for selective breeding. The problem of inbreeding can be exasperated by hermaphroditism. The bay scallop Argopecten irradians irradians is a hermaphroditic species that has been introduced to and now supports a major aquaculture industry in China. Positive response to selection for fast growth was observed in one of the less inbred stocks in a previous study. In this study, we evaluated selection for the second generation to determine if response to selection can be sustained in this introduced population of a hermaphroditic species. Response to selection, realized heritability for the second generation, cumulative (over two generations), current (for the second generation) and residual (from the first generation) genetic gains were estimated by comparing three different types of lines: SS (selected for two generation), SC (selected for the first generation only) and CC (unselected for two generations). The SS line grew significantly faster (P < 0.05) than the other two lines, indicating that the second generation selection for faster growth is still effective. Response to selection and realized heritability for the second generation were 0.612 +/- 0.101 and 0.349 +/- 0.057, respectively, which are similar to those observed for the first generation. The cumulative, current, and residual gains were 17.56 +/- 5.30%, 10.63 +/- 2.46%, and 6.25 +/- 3.13%, respectively. The sustained response to selection for the second generation observed here suggests that considerable genetic variability exists in this population and that future efforts on selective breeding are likely to be fruitful. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
1. Complete sequences of 1140 base pair of the cytochrome b gene from 133 specimens were obtained from nine localities including the inflow drainage system, isolated lakes and outflow drainage system in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau to assess genetic diversity and to infer population histories of the freshwater fish Schizopygopsis pylzovi.2. Nucleotide diversities (pi) were moderate (0.0024-0.0045) in populations from the outflow drainage system and Tuosuo Lake, but low (0.0018-0.0021) in populations from Qiadam Basin. It is probable that the low intra-population variability is related with the paleoenvironmental fluctuation in Qiadam Basin, suggesting that the populations from Qiadam Basin have experienced severe bottleneck events in history.3. Phylogenetic tree topologies indicate that the individuals from different populations did not form reciprocal monophyly, but the populations from the adjacent drainages cluster geographically. Most population pairwise F-ST tests were significant, with non-significant pairwise tests between Tuosu Lake and Tuosuo Lake in the north-west of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicates that the significant genetic variation was explained at the levels of catchments within and among, not among specific boundaries or inflow and outflow drainage systems.4. The nested clade phylogeographical analysis indicates that historical processes are very important in the observed geographical structuring of S. pylzovi, and the contemporary population structure and differentiation of S. pylzovi may be consistent with the historical tectonic events occurred in the course of uplifts of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Fluctuations of the ecogeographical environment and major hydrographic formation might have promoted contiguous range expansion of freshwater fish populations, whereas the geological barriers among drainages have resulted in the fragmentation of population and restricted the gene flow among populations.5. The significantly large negative F-s-value (-24.91, P < 0.01) of Fu's F-s-test and the unimodal mismatch distribution indicate that the species S. pylzovi underwent a sudden population expansion after the historical tectonic event of the Gonghe Movement.6. The results of this study indicate that each population from the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau should be managed and conserved separately and that efforts should be directed towards preserving the genetic integrity of each group.
Resumo:
1. Plateau pikas Ochotona curzoniae are considered a pest species on the Tibetan Plateau because they compete with livestock for forage and their burrowing could contribute to soil erosion. The effectiveness of pest control programmes in Tibet has not been measured, and it is not known whether changes in livestock management have exacerbated problems with plateau pikas or compromised their control. This study measured the impact of control programmes and livestock management for forage conservation on populations of plateau pikas in alpine meadow in Naqu District, central Tibet, during 2004 and 2005.2. Current techniques for controlling plateau pikas in spring cause large reductions in abundance, but high density-dependent rates of increase result in no differences between treated and untreated populations by the following autumn. Rates of increase from spring to autumn are not influenced by standing plant biomass or concurrent grazing by yaks Bos grunniens and Tibetan sheep Ovis aries.3. In autumn there was significantly lower biomass outside fenced areas with year-round livestock grazing compared with inside fenced areas with equivalent or higher numbers of plateau pikas but predominantly winter grazing by livestock. Inside fenced areas, control of plateau pikas in spring produced no detectable effect on standing plant biomass at the end of the following summer compared with uncontrolled populations of plateau pikas.4. Regardless of their initial density, populations of plateau pikas declined rapidly over winter outside fenced areas where there was very low standing plant biomass in autumn. However, inside fenced areas with higher plant biomass in autumn, low-density populations of plateau pikas declined more slowly than high-density populations.5. Synthesis and applications. Current control programmes have limited effect because populations of plateau pikas can recover in one breeding season. There was no apparent increase in forage production in areas where plateau pikas were controlled. However, plateau pikas appear to benefit from changes in grazing management, with low-density populations declining less over winter inside fenced areas than elsewhere. It was not evident that control programmes are warranted or that they will improve the livelihoods of Tibetan herders.
Resumo:
The influence of air and soil warming on root vole (Microtus oeconomus L.) population was studied in winter period in top open chambers (OTC) (0.8-1.8 m(2) warmed by conical fiberglass material and situated in alpine meadow (3250 m) at Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. The OTCs were distributed on an area of 30 x 30 m of experimental warming site; another site of the same area was a control one. The root vole population was investigated on two pairs of sites in "low-grazing" and "high-grazing" (by sheep) parts of the meadow; mark-recapture method was used. The winter-season averaged air and soil temperature inside of the chambers were 1.3 degrees C higher than the temperature outside the chambers. The warming in the chambers had no statistically significant effect on root vole numbers, on average body mass of individual, and on average body mass of males and females. In conclusion, as small as 1.3 degrees C warming of soil and air introduced locally and on small (several m(2)) scale, in the alpine meadow habitat in winter period, has possibly no effect on root vole numbers and biomass.
Resumo:
General expressions used for transforming raw laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) intensity into the population and alignment parameters of a symmetric top molecule are derived by employing the density matrix approach. The molecular population and alignment are described by molecular state multipoles. The results are presented for a general excitation-detection geometry and then applied to some special geometries. In general cases, the LIF intensity is a complex function of the initial molecular state multipoles, the dynamic factors and the excitation-detection geometrical factors. It contains a population and 14 alignment multipoles. How to extract all initial state multipoles from the rotationally unresolved emission LIF intensity is discussed in detail.
Resumo:
The influence of laser-field parameters, such as intensity and pulse width, on the population of molecular excited state is investigated by using the time-dependent wavepacket method. For a two-state system in intense laser fields, the populations in the upper and lower states are given by the wavefunctions obtained by solving the Schrodinger equation through split-operator scheme. The calculation shows that both the laser intensity and the pulse width have a strong effect on the population in molecular excited state, and that as the common feature of light-matter interaction (LMI), the periodic changing of the population with the evolution time in each state can be interpreted by Rabi oscillation and area-theorem. The results illustrate that by controlling these two parameters, the needed population in excited state of interest can be obtained, which provides the foundation of light manipulation of molecular processes. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The presence of tissue specific precursor cells is an emerging concept in organ formation and tissue homeostasis. Several progenitors are described in the kidneys. However, their identity as a true stem cell remains elusive. Here, we identify a neonatal kidney-derived c-kit(+) cell population that fulfills all of the criteria as a stem cell. These cells were found in the thick ascending limb of Henle's loop and exhibited clonogenicity, self-renewal, and multipotentiality with differentiation capacity into mesoderm and ectoderm progeny. Additionally, c-kit(+) cells formed spheres in nonadherent conditions when plated at clonal density and expressed markers of stem cells, progenitors, and differentiated cells. Ex vivo expanded c-kit(+) cells integrated into several compartments of the kidney, including tubules, vessels, and glomeruli, and contributed to functional and morphological improvement of the kidney following acute ischemia-reperfusion injury in rats. Together, these findings document a novel neonatal rat kidney c-kit(+) stem cell population that can be isolated, expanded, cloned, differentiated, and used for kidney repair following acute kidney injury. These cells have important biological and therapeutic implications. STEM Cells 2013;31:1644-1656
Resumo:
Hulun Lake, China’s fifth-largest inland lake, experienced severe declines in water level in the period of 2000-2010. This has prompted concerns whether the lake is drying up gradually. A multi-million US dollar engineering project to construct a water channel to transfer part of the river flow from a nearby river to maintain the water level was completed in August 2010. This study aimed to advance the understanding of the key processes controlling the lake water level variation over the last five decades, as well as investigate the impact of the river transfer engineering project on the water level. A water balance model was developed to investigate the lake water level variations over the last five decades, using hydrological and climatic data as well as satellite-based measurements and results from land surface modelling. The investigation reveals that the severe reduction of river discharge (- 364±64 mm/yr, ~70% of the five-decade average) into the lake was the key factor behind the decline of the lake water level between 2000 and 2010. The decline of river discharge was due to the reduction of total runoff from the lake watershed. This was a result of the reduction of soil moisture due to the decrease of precipitation (-49±45 mm/yr) over this period. The water budget calculation suggests that the groundwater component from the surrounding lake area as well as surface run off from the un-gauged area surrounding the lake contributed ~ net 210 Mm3/yr (equivalent to ~ 100 mm/yr) water inflows into the lake. The results also show that the water diversion project did prevent a further water level decline of over 0.5 m by the end of 2012. Overall, the monthly water balance model gave an excellent prediction of the lake water level fluctuation over the last five decades and can be a useful tool to manage lake water resources in the future.