Accuracy vs. simplicity: a complex trade-off

Inductive learning aims at finding general rules that hold true in a database. Targeted learning seeks rules for the predictions of the value of a variable based on the values of others, as in the case of linear or non-parametric regression analysis. Non-targeted learning finds regularities without a specific prediction goal. We model the product of non-targeted learning as rules that state that a certain phenomenon never happens, or that certain conditions necessitate another. For all types of rules, there is a trade-off between the rule's accuracy and its simplicity. Thus rule selection can be viewed as a choice problem, among pairs of degree of accuracy and degree of complexity. However, one cannot in general tell what is the feasible set in the accuracy-complexity space. Formally, we show that finding out whether a point belongs to this set is computationally hard. In particular, in the context of linear regression, finding a small set of variables that obtain a certain value of R2 is computationally hard. Computational complexity may explain why a person is not always aware of rules that, if asked, she would find valid. This, in turn, may explain why one can change other people's minds (opinions, beliefs) without providing new information.

I want you! An experiment studying the selection effect when assigning distributive power.

We study whether selection affects motivation. In our experiment subjects first answer a personality questionnaire. They then play a 3-person game. One of the three players decides between an outside option assigning him a positive amount, but leaving the two others empty-handed and allowing one of the other two players to distribute a pie. Treatments differ in the procedure by which distributive power is assigned: to a randomly determined or to a knowingly selected partner. Before making her decision the selecting player could consult the personality questionnaire of the other two players. Results show that knowingly selected players keep less for themselves than randomly selected ones and reward the selecting player more generously.

Self-selection consistent functions

This paper studies collective choice rules whose outcomes consist of a collection of simultaneous decisions, each one of which is the only concern of some group of individuals in society. The need for such rules arises in different contexts, including the establishment of jurisdictions, the location of multiple public facilities, or the election of representative committees. We define a notion of allocation consistency requiring that each partial aspect of the global decision taken by society as a whole should be ratified by the group of agents who are directly concerned with this particular aspect. We investigate the possibility of designing envy-free allocation consistent rules, we also explore whether such rules may also respect the Condorcet criterion.

Variables efectives de l'empowerment

Aquest treball que porta per títol variables efectives de l’empowerment es el treball investigació del programa de doctorat Interuniversitari en Organització i Administració d’Empreses. El treball està composat per tres parts diferenciades. La primera part del treball consisteix amb el comentari de vint articles relacionats amb la motivació, el downsizing i l’empowerment. Els resums exposats han servit per establir els fonaments teòrics previs al model proposat de variables efectives d’empowerment. La segona part consisteix amb l’elaboració d’un article que resumeix les principals fonts consultades i proposa un model de classificació de les variables que poden contribuir a aconseguir amb èxit un procés d’empowerment. Les variables efectives es poden dividir en variables recíproques, variables unidireccionals, variables compartides i variables reflexives. La tercera part i amb l’objectiu de comprovar la validesa de model s’ha desenvolupat un qüestionari per mesurar l’estat de les variables anomenades efectives d’empowerment i la seva contribució amb l’èxit del procés. Es descriu l’eina desenvolupada, el tractament i la representació de les dades obtingudes. Finalment es pot trobar els primers resultats de la prova pilot realitzada per provar el model conceptual proposat.

The Adolpho Lutz collection of Tabanidae: (Diptera): I. The described genera and species, condition of the collection, and selection of lectotypes

A study of the Adolpho Lutz Collection of Tabanidae at the Instituto Oswaldo Cruz and of additional Lutz material at the Instituto Butantan in São Paulo is reported. Of the ninety-four species of Tabanidae validly described by Lutz, type material of eighty-four was recognized, either holotypes, allotypes or syntypes. Lectotypes were selected from among syntype series or remaining specimens and all type material was labelled. Of the ten species of which no type material could be found, neotypes were designated in the case of two species, Erephosis nigricans and Erephosis pseudo-aurimaculata. Types of three species, Chrysops ecuadoriensis, Dichelacera salvadorensis and Esenbeckia nigricorpus are believed to have been in Hamburg and destroyed during the last war. Types of two species, Esenbeckia biscutellata and E. dubia, and additional type material of several others are believed to have been in Montevideo. A request for information about them remains unanswered. Types of the remaining three species, Dichelacera intermedia, Dichelacera laceriascia and Esenbeckia distinguenda could not be found, and it is believed that at least the type of the last species was accidentally destroyed. Three specific of subspecific names proposed by Lutz but palaced by others in synonymy have been revalidated, Acanthocera intermedia, Erephosis brevistria and Esenbeckia fenestrata. Generic placement of two names has been changed, Esenbeckia arcuata ricardoae to Proboscoides, and Selasoma giganteum to Stibasoma. Seven specific names proposed by Lutz appear to be synonyms of earlier names, as follows: Bombylopsis juxtaleonina Lutz and Castro, 1936 = B. leonina Lutz, 1909. Bombylopsis pseudoanalis Lutz, 1909 = B. erythronotata (Bigot, 1892). Esenbeckia fuscipennis var. flavescens Lutz, 1909 = Esenbeckia fuscipennis Wied., 1828. Fidena chrysopyga Lutz and Castro, 1936 = F. atra Lutz and Castro, 1936. Laphriomyia longipalpis Lutz and Castro, 1937 = L. mirabilis Lutz, 1911. Stibasoma semiflavum Lutz, 1915 = St. bicolor Bigot, 1892. Tabanus hesperus Lutz, 1912 = Chlorotabanus (Cryptolylus) innotescens (Walker, 1854). Four Lutz names appear to antedate names proposed by others, viz.: Diachlorus angustifrons Kröber, 1930 and D. ochraceus Kröb., 1928 not Macquart, 1850 = Diachlorus fuscistigma Lutz, 1913. Psalidia fairchildi Barretto, 1950 = dicladocera conspicua Lutz and Neiva, 1914. Fidena pseudo-fulvithorax Kröb., 1931 = Erephopsis flavicrinis Lutz, 1909. Esenbeckia lemniscata Enderlein, 1925 = Esenbeckia clari Lutz, 1909. Some comments on Lutz' system of classification are given together with notes on the genotypes and included species of his genera as revaled by his collection and notes.

The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long-run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination which includes the relative labor productivity, the real interest rates and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate VAR model.

Entry and market selection of firms: a laboratory study

We study competition in experimental markets in which two incumbents face entry by three other firms. Our treatments vary with respect to three factors: sequential vs. block or simultaneous entry, the cost functions of entrants and the amount of time during which incumbents are protected from entry. Before entry incumbents are able to collude in all cases. When all firms' costs are the same entry always leads consumer surplus and profits to their equilibrium levels. When entrants are more efficient than incumbents, entry leads consumer surplus to equilibrium. However, total profits remain below equilibrium, due to the fact that the inefficient incumbents produce too much and efficient entrants produce too little. Market behavior is satisfactory from the consumers' standpoint, but does not yield adequate signals to other potential entrants. These results are not affected by whether entry is simultaneous or sequential. The length of the incumbency phase does have some subtle effects.

Determinación in vitro de la digestibilidad de los nutrientes de la cebada. Aplicación práctica para calibración de un sistema NIRS, y para la utilización de enzimas en la alimentación porcina.

La intensificación de la producción porcina, sin duda es uno de los principales factores que han influido en la alta competitividad del sector. Dicha intensificación sin embargo debe enfrentarse a nuevos retos de acuerdo con la creciente preocupación de los estados europeos sobre problemas de bienestar animal y de contaminación medioambiental resultante de la producción animal intensiva. La excreción de nitrógeno en los purines (que es uno de los principales factores contaminantes), puede ser reducida substancialmente si se reduce el contenido proteico del pienso. Ello, sin embargo debe de hacerse de manera que la dieta aporte las cantidades mínimas de aminoácidos requeridas por los animales, y que por tanto los parámetros productivos no se vean afectados. Para asegurar un aporte mínimo adecuado de aminoácidos en el pienso, es esencial un conocimiento preciso del valor nutritivo de las materias primas utilizadas. En la actualidad se utilizan los valores de contenido en aminoácidos digestibles ileales presentes en tablas publicadas por diferentes fuentes de información. Dichas tablas, sin embargo, son valores medios que no contemplan la elevada variabilidad en el contenido de aminoácidos digestibles dentro de una misma materia prima. Debido a esta variabilidad, para asegurar que los requerimientos de aminoácidos queden cubiertos al menos en un 80% de los casos, se debe sobreformular a un 107-108% de los requerimientos. Se ha estimado que una rápida determinación del contenido de aminoácidos digestibles ileales en las materias primas mediante la utilización de espectroscopia del infrarojo cercano (NIRS), permitiría el conocimiento del valor nutritivo de cada partida de materia prima, y una reducción de la sobreformulación a un 103%, con el consiguiente beneficio medioambiental. El principal inconveniente, para la aplicación de dicha metodología NIRS, es que su calibración requiere un esfuerzo excepcional, que solamente puede conseguirse con el trabajo de varios años de determinaciones in vivo de digestibilidad ileal de aminoácidos de un elevadísimo número de muestras. El presente proyecto tenía como principal objetivo la puesta a punto de una técnica de digestibilidad ileal de nutrientes in vitro (validada con determinaciones in vivo), que nos permitiera un análisis más rápido de un número elevado de muestras para realizar la calibración del NIRS. Para ello se escogió la cebada como materia prima para realizar los estudios por su importancia económica en España.

Calibration of CES functions for real-world multisectoral modeling

We show how to calibrate CES production and utility functions when indirect taxation affecting inputs and consumption is present. These calibrated functions can then be used in computable general equilibrium models. Taxation modifies the standard calibration procedures since any taxed good has two associated prices and a choice of reference value units has to be made. We also provide an example of computer code to solve the calibration of CES utilities under two alternate normalizations. To our knowledge, this paper fills a methodological gap in the CGE literature.

Trypanosoma cruzi: strain selection by diferent schedules of mouse passage of an initially mixed infection

From an initial double infection in mice, established by simultaneous and equivalent inocula of bloodstream forms of strains Y and F of Trypanosoma cruzi, two lines were derived by subinoculations: one (W) passaged every week, the other (M) every month. Through biological and biochemical methods only the Y strain was identified at the end of the 10th and 16th passages of line W and only the F strain at the 2nd and 4th passages of line M. The results illustrate strain selection through laboratory manipulation of initially mixed populations of T. cruzi.

Indicadors de pressió ambiental a les platges de Menorca: prova pilot (IPAPM'pp)

L’augment del turisme experimentat des de principis dels anys 70 a l’illa de Menorca (Illes Balears, Espanya) ha provocat un impacte sobre les seves platges, el seu principal atractiu turístic. Molts d’aquests impactes s’incrementen durant la temporada alta, compresa entre els mesos de maig a octubre. L’objectiu principal d’aquest projecte és l’elaboració d’un sistema d’indicadors de pressió ambiental útils per a l’anàlisi de les platges. La zona objecte d’estudi de la prova-pilot, correspon a les platges del sud-oest de Menorca, aquestes cales són les que actualment es troben sotmeses a una major pressió. Es tracta de catorze platges tipificades en tres categories (A, B, C) segons les característiques del tipus d’espai on es troben situades. Són les platges de: Cala Degollador, Cala Blanca, Cala’n Bosch, Son Xoriguer, Son Saura-Es Banyul, Son Saura-Bellavista, Es Talaier, Cala Turqueta, Cala Macarelleta, Cala Macarella, Cala Galdana, Cala Mitjana, Cala Trebalúger i Cala Escorxada. Partint d’un treball bibliogràfic, s’ha realitzat una selecció de mig centenar d’indicadors potencials dels quals catorze han format part dels IPAPM’pp, mitjançant l’elaboració d’una anàlisi multicriteri. Per a cada un dels IPAPM’pp s’ha desenvolupat una metodologia amb les corresponents fitxes individuals descriptives per al seu seguiment temporal. En aquest primer estudi, l’indicador que presenta un nombre de valors no acceptables en una major proporció de platges, és l’indicador 3. Índex de valoració de les mesures de conservació del sistema natural, seguit de l’indicador 6. Superfície subsistema sorra per usuari. El 2006, les platges de tipologia A, presenten un major percentatge positiu de les variables dels indicadors. Les platges de tipologia B i C presenten un percentatge menor d’acceptabilitat dels valors dels indicadors.

Orientation of the snail Biomphalaria straminea (Dunker, 1848) in response to light in a situation of selection

The behavioral response of Biomphalaria straminea to light was evaluted in terms of location of the snail in a Y-shaped aquarium in a situation of selection and of the rate (cm/hour) and direction of locomotion under homogeneous 9vertical) or differential (horizontal) lighting upon only one arm of the aquarium. The light source consisted of daylight fluorescent lamps with a spectrum close to that of natural light, with illumination varying from 28 to 350 lux. Analysis of the data showed that all animals, whether in groups or isolated, were attracted to light, although the time needed to approach the light source was 50% shorter for the former than for the latter. The rate of locomotion of B. straminea was 35% higher than observed in B. glabrata and 51% higher than that observed in B. tenagophila studied under similar conditions. The results are discussed in terms of social factors and geographical distribution of the three species.

IFN stimulated gene expression in the liver is a better predictor of treatment response in chronic hepatitis c than the IL28b (IFN lambda 3) genotype

Background: Therapy of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) with pegIFNa/ribavirin achieves sustained virologic response (SVR) in ~55%. Pre-activation of the endogenous interferon system in the liver is associated non-response (NR). Recently, genome-wide association studies described associations of allelic variants near the IL28B (IFNλ3) gene with treatment response and with spontaneous clearance of the virus. We investigated if the IL28B genotype determines the constitutive expression of IFN stimulated genes (ISGs) in the liver of patients with CHC. Methods: We genotyped 93 patients with CHC for 3 IL28B single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs, rs12979860, rs8099917, rs12980275), extracted RNA from their liver biopsies and quantified the expression of IL28B and of 8 previously identified classifier genes which discriminate between SVR and NR (IFI44L, RSAD2, ISG15, IFI22, LAMP3, OAS3, LGALS3BP and HTATIP2). Decision tree ensembles in the form of a random forest classifier were used to calculate the relative predictive power of these different variables in a multivariate analysis. Results: The minor IL28B allele (bad risk for treatment response) was significantly associated with increased expression of ISGs, and, unexpectedly, with decreased expression of IL28B. Stratification of the patients into SVR and NR revealed that ISG expression was conditionally independent from the IL28B genotype, i.e. there was an increased expression of ISGs in NR compared to SVR irrespective of the IL28B genotype. The random forest feature score (RFFS) identified IFI27 (RFFS = 2.93), RSAD2 (1.88) and HTATIP2 (1.50) expression and the HCV genotype (1.62) as the strongest predictors of treatment response. ROC curves of the IL28B SNPs showed an AUC of 0.66 with an error rate (ERR) of 0.38. A classifier with the 3 best classifying genes showed an excellent test performance with an AUC of 0.94 and ERR of 0.15. The addition of IL28B genotype information did not improve the predictive power of the 3-gene classifier. Conclusions: IL28B genotype and hepatic ISG expression are conditionally independent predictors of treatment response in CHC. There is no direct link between altered IFNλ3 expression and pre-activation of the endogenous system in the liver. Hepatic ISG expression is by far the better predictor for treatment response than IL28B genotype.

Wealth constraints, skill prices or networks: what determines emigrant selection?

The productive characteristics of migrating individuals, emigrant selection, affect welfare. The empirical estimation of the degree of selection suffers from a lack of complete and nationally representative data. This paper uses a new and better dataset to address both issues: the ENET (Mexican Labor Survey), which identifies emigrants right before they leave and allows a direct comparison to non-migrants. This dataset presents a relevant dichotomy: it shows on average negative selection for Mexican emigrants to the United States for the period 2000-2004 together with positive selection in Mexican emigration out of rural Mexico to the United States in the same period. Three theories that could explain this dichotomy are tested. Whereas higher skill prices in Mexico than in the US are enough to explain negative selection in urban Mexico, its combination with network effects and wealth constraints is required to account for positive selection in rural Mexico.