The mean-variance model from the inverse of the variance-covariance matrix

En este artículo, a partir de la inversa de la matriz de varianzas y covarianzas se obtiene el modelo Esperanza-Varianza de Markowitz siguiendo un camino más corto y matemáticamente riguroso. También se obtiene la ecuación de equilibrio del CAPM de Sharpe.

What do we actually mean by talent in business? Does it really matter?

[spa] La conceptuación de talento ha ido cobrando cada vez más importancia tanto para académicos como profesionales, con el fin de avanzar en el estudio de la gestión del talento. De hecho, la confusión sobre el significado de talento en la realidad empresarial impide llegar a un consenso sobre el concepto y la práctica de la gestión del talento. En este estudio teórico revisamos el concepto de talento en el mundo de la empresa con el fin de resumir lo que hemos aprendido y discutir las ventajas y limitaciones de las diferentes acepciones. Concluimos con la formulación de una definición de este concepto, ya que una correcta interpretación de la gestión del talento—por no hablar de una exitosa gestión del talento— depende de tener una comprensión clara de lo que se entiende por talento en un contexto organizativo. Además, con la definición de talento propuesta delimitamos el concepto de talento evitando algunos problemas detectados en las definiciones anteriores (por ejemplo, generalidades y tautologías), y poniendo de relieve las variables importantes que le afectan y lo hacen más manejable.

Modeling premartensitic effects in Ni2MnGa: A mean-field and Monte Carlo simulation study

ic first-order transition line ending in a critical point. This critical point is responsible for the existence of large premartensitic fluctuations which manifest as broad peaks in the specific heat, not always associated with a true phase transition. The main conclusion is that premartensitic effects result from the interplay between the softness of the anomalous phonon driving the modulation and the magnetoelastic coupling. In particular, the premartensitic transition occurs when such coupling is strong enough to freeze the involved mode phonon. The implication of the results in relation to the available experimental data is discussed.

Comparison between molecular dynamics abd Monte Carlo simulations of an ordering process in a binary alloy

Ordering in a binary alloy is studied by means of a molecular-dynamics (MD) algorithm which allows to reach the domain growth regime. Results are compared with Monte Carlo simulations using a realistic vacancy-atom (MC-VA) mechanism. At low temperatures fast growth with a dynamical exponent x>1/2 is found for MD and MC-VA. The study of a nonequilibrium ordering process with the two methods shows the importance of the nonhomogeneity of the excitations in the system for determining its macroscopic kinetics.

Variational Wigner-Kirkwood approach to relativistic mean field theory

The recently developed variational Wigner-Kirkwood approach is extended to the relativistic mean field theory for finite nuclei. A numerical application to the calculation of the surface energy coefficient in semi-infinite nuclear matter is presented. The new method is contrasted with the standard density functional theory and the fully quantal approach.

Recovery of soil physical properties by green manure, liming, gypsum and pasture and spontaneous native species¹

Inadequate usage can degrade natural resources, particularly soils. More attention has been paid to practices aiming at the recovery of degraded soils in the last years, e.g, the use of organic fertilizers, liming and introduction of species adapted to adverse conditions. The purpose of this study was therefore to investigate the recovery of physical properties of a Red Latosol (Oxisol) degraded by the construction of a hydroelectric power station. In the study area, a soil layer about 8m thick had been withdrawn by heavy machines leading not only to soil compaction, but resulting in high-degree degradation. The experiment was arranged in a completely randomized design with nine treatments and four replications. The treatments consisted of: 1- soil mobilization by tilling (to ensure the effect of mechanical mobilization in all treatments) without planting, but growth of spontaneous vegetation; 2- Black velvet bean (Stizolobium aterrimum Piper & Tracy); 3- Pigeonpea (Cajanus cajan (L.) DC); 4- Liming + black velvet bean; 5-Liming + pigeonpea until 1994, when replaced by jack bean (Canavalia ensiformis); 6- Liming + gypsum + black velvet bean; 7- Liming + gypsum + pigeonpea until 1994, when replaced by jack bean; and two controls as reference: 8- Native Cerrado vegetation and 9- bare soil (no tilling and no planting), left under natural conditions and in this situation, without spontaneous vegetation. In treatments 1 through 7, the soil was tilled. Treatments were installed in 1992 and left unmanaged for seven years, until brachiaria (Brachiaria decumbens) was planted in all plots in 1999. Seventeen years after implantation, the properties soil macroporosity, microporosity, total porosity, bulk density and aggregate stability were assessed in the previously described treatments in the soil layers 0.00-0.10; 0.10-0.20 and 0.20-0.40 m, and soil Penetration Resistance and soil moisture in 0.00-0.15 and 0.15-0.30 m. The plants were evaluated for: brachiaria dry matter and spontaneous growth of native tree species in the plots as of 2006. Results were analyzed by variance analysis and Tukey´s test at 5 % for mean comparison. In all treatments, except for the bare soil (no recovery measures), ongoing recovery of the degraded soil physical properties was observed. Macroporosity, soil bulk density and total porosity were good soil quality indicators. The occurrence of spontaneous native species indicated the soil recovery process. The best adapted species was Machaerium acutifolium Vogel, with the largest number of plants and most advanced development; the dry matter production of B. decumbens in recovering soil was similar to normal conditions, evidencing soil recovery.

Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

A new accelerometric method to assess the daily walking practice.

OBJECTIVE: To describe a method to obtain a profile of the duration and intensity (speed) of walking periods over 24 hours in women under free-living conditions. DESIGN: A new method based on accelerometry was designed for analyzing walking activity. In order to take into account inter-individual variability of acceleration, an individual calibration process was used. Different experiments were performed to highlight the variability of acceleration vs walking speed relationship, to analyze the speed prediction accuracy of the method, and to test the assessment of walking distance and duration over 24-h. SUBJECTS: Twenty-eight women were studied (mean+/-s.d.) age: 39.3+/-8.9 y; body mass: 79.7+/-11.1 kg; body height: 162.9+/-5.4 cm; and body mass index (BMI) 30.0+/-3.8 kg/m(2). RESULTS: Accelerometer output was significantly correlated with speed during treadmill walking (r=0.95, P<0.01), and short unconstrained walks (r=0.86, P<0.01), although with a large inter-individual variation of the regression parameters. By using individual calibration, it was possible to predict walking speed on a standard urban circuit (predicted vs measured r=0.93, P<0.01, s.e.e.=0.51 km/h). In the free-living experiment, women spent on average 79.9+/-36.0 (range: 31.7-168.2) min/day in displacement activities, from which discontinuous short walking activities represented about 2/3 and continuous ones 1/3. Total walking distance averaged 2.1+/-1.2 (range: 0.4-4.7) km/day. It was performed at an average speed of 5.0+/-0.5 (range: 4.1-6.0) km/h. CONCLUSION: An accelerometer measuring the anteroposterior acceleration of the body can estimate walking speed together with the pattern, intensity and duration of daily walking activity.

Clarifying the Quadrennial Needs Study Process, December 1993

The Quadrennial Needs Study was developed to assist in the identification of highway needs and the distribution of road funds in Iowa among the various highway entities. During the period 1978 to 1990, the process has seen large shifts in needs and associated funding distribution in individual counties with no apparent reasons. This study investigated the reasons for such shifts. The study identified program inputs that can result in major shifts in needs either up or down from minor changes in the input values. The areas of concern were identified as the condition ratings for roads and structures, traffic volume and mix counts, and the assignment of construction cost areas. Eight counties exhibiting the large shifts (greater than 30%) in needs over time were used to test the sensitivity of the variables. A ninth county was used as the base line for the study. Recommendations are identified for improvements in the process of data collection in the areas of road and structure condition--rating, traffic, and in the assignment of construction cost areas. Advice is also offered in how to account for changes in jurisdiction between successive studies. Maintenance cost area assignment and levels of maintenance service are identified as requiring additional detailed research.