Zero-sum risk-sensitive stochastic games on a countable state space

Infinite horizon discounted-cost and ergodic-cost risk-sensitive zero-sum stochastic games for controlled Markov chains with countably many states are analyzed. Upper and lower values for these games are established. The existence of value and saddle-point equilibria in the class of Markov strategies is proved for the discounted-cost game. The existence of value and saddle-point equilibria in the class of stationary strategies is proved under the uniform ergodicity condition for the ergodic-cost game. The value of the ergodic-cost game happens to be the product of the inverse of the risk-sensitivity factor and the logarithm of the common Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue of the associated controlled nonlinear kernels. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatially Adaptive Kernel Regression Using Risk Estimation

An important question in kernel regression is one of estimating the order and bandwidth parameters from available noisy data. We propose to solve the problem within a risk estimation framework. Considering an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) Gaussian observations model, we use Stein's unbiased risk estimator (SURE) to estimate a weighted mean-square error (MSE) risk, and optimize it with respect to the order and bandwidth parameters. The two parameters are thus spatially adapted in such a manner that noise smoothing and fine structure preservation are simultaneously achieved. On the application side, we consider the problem of image restoration from uniform/non-uniform data, and show that the SURE approach to spatially adaptive kernel regression results in better quality estimation compared with its spatially non-adaptive counterparts. The denoising results obtained are comparable to those obtained using other state-of-the-art techniques, and in some scenarios, superior.

Risk-sensitive control of continuous time Markov chains

We study risk-sensitive control of continuous time Markov chains taking values in discrete state space. We study both finite and infinite horizon problems. In the finite horizon problem we characterize the value function via Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation and obtain an optimal Markov control. We do the same for infinite horizon discounted cost case. In the infinite horizon average cost case we establish the existence of an optimal stationary control under certain Lyapunov condition. We also develop a policy iteration algorithm for finding an optimal control.

Cancer gene signatures in risk stratification: use in personalized medicine

Cancer is a complex disease which arises due to a series of genetic changes related to cell division and growth control. Cancer remains the second leading cause of death in humans next to heart diseases. As a testimony to our progress in understanding the biology of cancer and developments in cancer diagnosis and treatment methods, the overall median survival time of all cancers has increased six fold one year to six years during the last four decades. However, while the median survival time has increased dramatically for some cancers like breast and colon, there has been only little change for other cancers like pancreas and brain. Further, not all patients having a single type of tumour respond to the standard treatment. The differential response is due to genetic heterogeneity which exists not only between tumours, which is called intertumour heterogeneity, but also within individual tumours, which is called intratumoural heterogeneity. Thus it becomes essential to personalize the cancer treatment based on a specific genetic change in a given tumour. It is also possible to stratify cancer patients into low- and high-risk groups based on expression changes or alterations in a group of genes gene signatures and choose a more suitable mode of therapy. It is now possible that each tumour can be analysed using various high-throughput methods like gene expression profiling and next-generation sequencing to identify its unique fingerprint based on which a personalized or tailor-made therapy can be developed. Here, we review the important progress made in the recent years towards personalizing cancer treatment with the use of gene signatures.

Silent katydid females are at higher risk of bat predation than acoustically signalling katydid males

Males that produce conspicuous mate attraction signals are often at high risk of predation from eavesdropping predators. Females of such species typically search for signalling males and their higher motility may also place them at risk. The relative predation risk faced by males and females in the context of mate-finding using long-distance signals has rarely been investigated. In this study, we show, using a combination of diet analysis and behavioural experiments, that katydid females, who do not produce acoustic signals, are at higher risk of predation from a major bat predator, Megaderma spasma, than calling males. Female katydids were represented in much higher numbers than males in the culled remains beneath roosts of M. spasma. Playback experiments using katydid calls revealed that male calls were approached in only about one-third of the trials overall, whereas tethered, flying katydids were always approached and attacked. Our results question the idea that necessary costs of mate-finding, including risk of predation, are higher in signalling males than in searching females.

Making risk minimization tolerant to label noise

In many applications, the training data, from which one needs to learn a classifier, is corrupted with label noise. Many standard algorithms such as SVM perform poorly in the presence of label noise. In this paper we investigate the robustness of risk minimization to label noise. We prove a sufficient condition on a loss function for the risk minimization under that loss to be tolerant to uniform label noise. We show that the 0-1 loss, sigmoid loss, ramp loss and probit loss satisfy this condition though none of the standard convex loss functions satisfy it. We also prove that, by choosing a sufficiently large value of a parameter in the loss function, the sigmoid loss, ramp loss and probit loss can be made tolerant to nonuniform label noise also if we can assume the classes to be separable under noise-free data distribution. Through extensive empirical studies, we show that risk minimization under the 0-1 loss, the sigmoid loss and the ramp loss has much better robustness to label noise when compared to the SVM algorithm. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk-Sensitive Ergodic Control of Continuous Time Markov Processes With Denumerable State Space

In this article, we study risk-sensitive control problem with controlled continuous time Markov chain state dynamics. Using multiplicative dynamic programming principle along with the atomic structure of the state dynamics, we prove the existence and a characterization of optimal risk-sensitive control under geometric ergodicity of the state dynamics along with a smallness condition on the running cost.

An Unbiased Risk Estimator for Multiplicative Noise - Application to 1-D Signal Denoising

The effect of multiplicative noise on a signal when compared with that of additive noise is very large. In this paper, we address the problem of suppressing multiplicative noise in one-dimensional signals. To deal with signals that are corrupted with multiplicative noise, we propose a denoising algorithm based on minimization of an unbiased estimator (MURE) of meansquare error (MSE). We derive an expression for an unbiased estimate of the MSE. The proposed denoising is carried out in wavelet domain (soft thresholding) by considering time-domain MURE. The parameters of thresholding function are obtained by minimizing the unbiased estimator MURE. We show that the parameters for optimal MURE are very close to the optimal parameters considering the oracle MSE. Experiments show that the SNR improvement for the proposed denoising algorithm is competitive with a state-of-the-art method.

Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.