On the Economics and Politics of Mobility

Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States. During the Age of Mass Migration, 30 million Europeans immigrated to the United States. We study the long-term political effects of this large-scale migration episode on origin communities using detailed historical data from Sweden. To instrument for emigration, we exploit severe local frost shocks that sparked an initial wave of emigration, interacted with within-country travel costs. Because Swedish emigration was highly path dependent, the initial shocks strongly predict total emigration over 50 years. Our estimates show that emigration substantially increased membership in local labor organizations, the strongest political opposition groups at the time. Furthermore, emigration caused greater strike participation, and mobilized voter turnout and support for left-wing parties in national elections. Emigration also had formal political effects, as measured by welfare expenditures and adoption of inclusive political institutions. Together, our findings indicate that large-scale emigration can achieve long-lasting effects on the political equilibrium in origin communities. Mass Migration and Technological Innovation at the Origin. This essay studies the effects of migration on technological innovations in origin communities. Using historical data from Sweden, we find that large-scale emigration caused a long-run increase in patent innovations in origin municipalities. Our IV estimate shows that a ten percent increase in emigration entails a 7 percent increase in a muncipality’s number of patents. Weighting patents by a measure of their economic value, the positive effects are further increased. Discussing possible mechanisms, we suggest that low skilled labor scarcity may be an explanation for these results.  Richer (and Holier) Than Thou? The Impact of Relative Income Improvements on Demand for Redistribution. We use a tailor-made survey on a Swedish sample to investigate how individuals' relative income affects their demand for redistribution. We first document that a majority misperceive their position in the income distribution and believe that they are poorer, relative to others, than they actually are. We then inform a subsample about their true relative income, and find that individuals who are richer than they initially thought demand less redistribution. This result is driven by individuals with prior right-of-center political preferences who view taxes as distortive and believe that effort, rather than luck, drives individual economic success. Wealth, home ownership and mobility. Rent controls on housing have long been thought to reduce labor mobility and allocative efficiency. We study a policy that allowed renters to purchase their rent-controlled apartments at below market prices, and examine the effects of home ownership and wealth on mobility. Treated individuals have a substantially higher likelihood of moving to a new home in a given year. The effect corresponds to a 30 percent increase from the control group mean. The size of the wealth shock predicts lower mobility, while the positive average effect can be explained by tenants switching from the previous rent-controlled system to market-priced condominiums. By contrast, we do not find that the increase in residential mobility leads to a greater probability of moving to a new place of work.

Hotel Profit Implications from Rising Wages and Inflation in the U.S.

Macroeconomic models based on the Phillips Curve predict that as the unemployment rate declines toward the long-run, natural rate, the pace of wage and price growth accelerates and inflation rises.1 In this paper I analyze the profitability prospects for the U.S. hotel industry in today’s relatively volatile economic environment, keeping in mind the Phillips Curve’s general principle that inflation and employment have an inverse, but relatively stable short-term relationship. Although employment and economic growth in the U.S. have been uneven in recent months, the unemployment rate has declined to less than 5 percent, which many economists believe is close to the natural rate. Growth in wages and salaries, as measured by the Employment Cost Index, has concurrently been moving upward between 2.5 and 3.0 percent during the past 12 months. At the same time, general inflation remains below levels that might typically be expected this late in the cycle, although core inflation is bumping up against the Federal Reserve’s 2-percent target. If the inflation rate continues to move upward as predicted by Phillips Curve models (and encouraged by the Federal Reserve), rising labor costs and other expenses will exert downward pressure on U.S. business profits. Backward movement up the Phillips Curve (with greater inflation) coincides with an expanding economy. In that scenario, prices of goods and services also will rise in real terms if their supply cannot keep up with demand, and producers have the ability to raise prices (absent fixed-price contracts such as leases).

Essays in International Finance and Macroeconomics

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Jatropha cultivation in Malawi and Mozambique: impact on ecosystem services, local human well-being, and poverty alleviation

Jatropha-based biofuels have undergone a rapid boom-and-bust cycle in southern Africa. Despite strong initial support by governments, donors, and the private sector, there is a lack of empirical studies that compare the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of Jatropha’s two dominant modes of production: large plantations and smallholder-based projects. We apply a rapid ecosystem services assessment approach to understand the impact of two Jatropha projects that are still operational despite widespread project collapse across southern Africa: a smallholder-based project (BERL, Malawi) and a large plantation (Niqel, Mozambique). Our study focuses on changes in provisioning ecosystem services such as biofuel feedstock, food, and woodland products that can have important effects on human well-being locally. Qualitative information is provided for other regulating and cultural ecosystem services. Although at this stage no impact is tremendously positive or negative, both projects show some signs of viability and local poverty alleviation potential. However, their long-term sustainability is not guaranteed given low yields, uncertain markets, and some prevailing management practices.

Predators on private land: broad-scale socioeconomic interactions influence large predator management

The proliferation of private land conservation areas (PLCAs) is placing increasing pressure on conservation authorities to effectively regulate their ecological management. Many PLCAs depend on tourism for income, and charismatic large mammal species are considered important for attracting international visitors. Broad-scale socioeconomic factors therefore have the potential to drive fine-scale ecological management, creating a systemic scale mismatch that can reduce long-term sustainability in cases where economic and conservation objectives are not perfectly aligned. We assessed the socioeconomic drivers and outcomes of large predator management on 71 PLCAs in South Africa. Owners of PLCAs that are stocking free-roaming large predators identified revenue generation as influencing most or all of their management decisions, and rated profit generation as a more important objective than did the owners of PLCAs that did not stock large predators. Ecotourism revenue increased with increasing lion (Panthera leo) density, which created a potential economic incentive for stocking lion at high densities. Despite this potential mismatch between economic and ecological objectives, lion densities were sustainable relative to available prey. Regional-scale policy guidelines for free-roaming lion management were ecologically sound. By contrast, policy guidelines underestimated the area required to sustain cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus), which occurred at unsustainable densities relative to available prey. Evidence of predator overstocking included predator diet supplementation and frequent reintroduction of game. We conclude that effective facilitation of conservation on private land requires consideration of the strong and not necessarily beneficial multiscale socioeconomic factors that influence private land management.

Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting Volatility and Correlations from High-Frequency Data

This dissertation contains four essays that all share a common purpose: developing new methodologies to exploit the potential of high-frequency data for the measurement, modeling and forecasting of financial assets volatility and correlations. The first two chapters provide useful tools for univariate applications while the last two chapters develop multivariate methodologies. In chapter 1, we introduce a new class of univariate volatility models named FloGARCH models. FloGARCH models provide a parsimonious joint model for low frequency returns and realized measures, and are sufficiently flexible to capture long memory as well as asymmetries related to leverage effects. We analyze the performances of the models in a realistic numerical study and on the basis of a data set composed of 65 equities. Using more than 10 years of high-frequency transactions, we document significant statistical gains related to the FloGARCH models in terms of in-sample fit, out-of-sample fit and forecasting accuracy compared to classical and Realized GARCH models. In chapter 2, using 12 years of high-frequency transactions for 55 U.S. stocks, we argue that combining low-frequency exogenous economic indicators with high-frequency financial data improves the ability of conditionally heteroskedastic models to forecast the volatility of returns, their full multi-step ahead conditional distribution and the multi-period Value-at-Risk. Using a refined version of the Realized LGARCH model allowing for time-varying intercept and implemented with realized kernels, we document that nominal corporate profits and term spreads have strong long-run predictive ability and generate accurate risk measures forecasts over long-horizon. The results are based on several loss functions and tests, including the Model Confidence Set. Chapter 3 is a joint work with David Veredas. We study the class of disentangled realized estimators for the integrated covariance matrix of Brownian semimartingales with finite activity jumps. These estimators separate correlations and volatilities. We analyze different combinations of quantile- and median-based realized volatilities, and four estimators of realized correlations with three synchronization schemes. Their finite sample properties are studied under four data generating processes, in presence, or not, of microstructure noise, and under synchronous and asynchronous trading. The main finding is that the pre-averaged version of disentangled estimators based on Gaussian ranks (for the correlations) and median deviations (for the volatilities) provide a precise, computationally efficient, and easy alternative to measure integrated covariances on the basis of noisy and asynchronous prices. Along these lines, a minimum variance portfolio application shows the superiority of this disentangled realized estimator in terms of numerous performance metrics. Chapter 4 is co-authored with Niels S. Hansen, Asger Lunde and Kasper V. Olesen, all affiliated with CREATES at Aarhus University. We propose to use the Realized Beta GARCH model to exploit the potential of high-frequency data in commodity markets. The model produces high quality forecasts of pairwise correlations between commodities which can be used to construct a composite covariance matrix. We evaluate the quality of this matrix in a portfolio context and compare it to models used in the industry. We demonstrate significant economic gains in a realistic setting including short selling constraints and transaction costs.

Price transmission dynamics between ADRs and their underlying foreign security: The case of Banco de Colombia S.A.- Bancolombia.

This paper analyzes the dynamics ofthe American Depositary Receipt (ADR) of a Colombian bank (Bancolombia) in relation to its pricing factors (underlying (preferred) shares price, exchange rate and the US market index). The aim is to test if there is a long-term relation among these variables that would imply predictability. One cointegrating relation is found allowing the use of a vector error correction model to examine the transmission of shocks to the underlying prices, the exchange rate, and the US market index. The main finding of this paper is that in the short run, the underlying share price seems to adjust after changes in the ADR price, pointing to the fact that the NYSE (trading market for the ADR) leads the Colombian market. However, in the long run, both, the underlying share price and the ADR price, adjust to changes in one another.

Hierarchical Forest Management Planning: A Bilevel Wood Supply Modelling Approach

Le processus de planification forestière hiérarchique présentement en place sur les terres publiques risque d’échouer à deux niveaux. Au niveau supérieur, le processus en place ne fournit pas une preuve suffisante de la durabilité du niveau de récolte actuel. À un niveau inférieur, le processus en place n’appuie pas la réalisation du plein potentiel de création de valeur de la ressource forestière, contraignant parfois inutilement la planification à court terme de la récolte. Ces échecs sont attribuables à certaines hypothèses implicites au modèle d’optimisation de la possibilité forestière, ce qui pourrait expliquer pourquoi ce problème n’est pas bien documenté dans la littérature. Nous utilisons la théorie de l’agence pour modéliser le processus de planification forestière hiérarchique sur les terres publiques. Nous développons un cadre de simulation itératif en deux étapes pour estimer l’effet à long terme de l’interaction entre l’État et le consommateur de fibre, nous permettant ainsi d’établir certaines conditions pouvant mener à des ruptures de stock. Nous proposons ensuite une formulation améliorée du modèle d’optimisation de la possibilité forestière. La formulation classique du modèle d’optimisation de la possibilité forestière (c.-à-d., maximisation du rendement soutenu en fibre) ne considère pas que le consommateur de fibre industriel souhaite maximiser son profit, mais suppose plutôt la consommation totale de l’offre de fibre à chaque période, peu importe le potentiel de création de valeur de celle-ci. Nous étendons la formulation classique du modèle d’optimisation de la possibilité forestière afin de permettre l’anticipation du comportement du consommateur de fibre, augmentant ainsi la probabilité que l’offre de fibre soit entièrement consommée, rétablissant ainsi la validité de l’hypothèse de consommation totale de l’offre de fibre implicite au modèle d’optimisation. Nous modélisons la relation principal-agent entre le gouvernement et l’industrie à l’aide d’une formulation biniveau du modèle optimisation, où le niveau supérieur représente le processus de détermination de la possibilité forestière (responsabilité du gouvernement), et le niveau inférieur représente le processus de consommation de la fibre (responsabilité de l’industrie). Nous montrons que la formulation biniveau peux atténuer le risque de ruptures de stock, améliorant ainsi la crédibilité du processus de planification forestière hiérarchique. Ensemble, le modèle biniveau d’optimisation de la possibilité forestière et la méthodologie que nous avons développée pour résoudre celui-ci à l’optimalité, représentent une alternative aux méthodes actuellement utilisées. Notre modèle biniveau et le cadre de simulation itérative représentent un pas vers l’avant en matière de technologie de planification forestière axée sur la création de valeur. L’intégration explicite d’objectifs et de contraintes industrielles au processus de planification forestière, dès la détermination de la possibilité forestière, devrait favoriser une collaboration accrue entre les instances gouvernementales et industrielles, permettant ainsi d’exploiter le plein potentiel de création de valeur de la ressource forestière.

Adoecimento osteomuscular de trabalhadores portuários avulsos e o processamento do raciocínio clínico da enfermagem

Introdução: O trabalho portuário é composto por condicionantes socioambientais necessários à manutenção das funções operativas, mas que influenciam na produção de doenças osteomusculares. O conhecimento desses condicionantes instrumentaliza o raciocínio clínico da Enfermagem para o planejamento de ações em saúde. Desta forma, defende-se a tese de que “O conhecimento dos condicionantes socioambientais e pessoais do adoecimento osteomuscular do trabalhador portuário avulso fornece elementos ao processamento do raciocínio clínico da Enfermagem, para assistência em saúde do trabalhador”. Objetivos: identificar evidências científicas de adoecimento ocupacional do trabalhador portuário publicadas na literatura cientifica; caracterizar o tipo, a localização e a intensidade de sintomas osteomusculares relacionados com os condicionantes socioambientais do trabalho portuário; Relacionar as doenças osteomusculares autorreferidas por trabalhadores portuários e os condicionantes socioambientais deste trabalho. Percurso Metodológico: o estudo apresentou revisão sistemática, fundamentada no método Cochrane; e estudos descritivos e exploratórios de abordagem quantitativa, realizado por meio de entrevista semi-estruturada com 232 trabalhadores portuários avulsos. Os dados foram analisados no software Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) 21.0, por frequência simples, proporções e testes inferenciais não-paramétricos. A tese integra o macro projeto de pesquisa “Saúde do Trabalhador, Riscos, Acidentes e Doenças Relacionadas ao Trabalho: Estudo com Trabalhadores em um Porto no Extremo Sul do Brasil”, aprovado pelo Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande (CEPAS-FURG) sob parecer número 118/2013. Resultados: Na revisão sistemática, selecionaram-se 16 publicações; todas as publicações pertenceram ao nível de evidência quatro, destacando o câncer pulmonar, doenças osteomusculares e isquêmicas, com nexo causal em riscos químicos oriundos da exaustão veicular e das cargas transportadas. Nos estudos descritivos, os sintomas prevalentes foram a dor leve em membros superiores (51,7%) e intensa a insuportável na coluna vertebral (19%). Os dois adoecimentos mais autorreferidos foram lombocitalgia (36,8%; n=50 – em terra e 28,1%; n=27 – a bordo) e tendinite (27,9% - em terra e 31,3% - a bordo). Discussão: O câncer pulmonar ocupacional foi causado por componentes químicos da exaustão veicular e do amianto transportado nas operações portuárias. Com relação à saúde muscular, a idade, o tempo e a jornada de trabalho mostraram-se condicionantes importantes na identificação de sintomas e adoecimentos, e o quanto estes fatores interveem na percepção da intensidade, contribuindo no autocuidado para prevenção e tratamento. Conclusão: O conhecimento dos condicionantes socioambientais relacionados ao trabalhador e caracterizados nos ambientes de trabalho deve ser atual e pregresso, o que somado à apreensão dos sintomas e adoecimentos autorreferidos pelos trabalhadores instrumentalizou o RC, identificando uma atuação profissional em longo prazo para dirimir os adoecimentos identificados. As características clínicas obtidas, em conjunto com a literatura, conduziram ao processamento do RC da enfermagem nesta realidade, sendo a informação em saúde um ponto chave para a promoção da saúde muscular dos trabalhadores.

Rate of Belowground Carbon Allocation Differs with Successional Habit of Two Afromontane Trees

Background: Anthropogenic disturbance of old-growth tropical forests increases the abundance of early successional tree species at the cost of late successional ones. Quantifying differences in terms of carbon allocation and the proportion of recently fixed carbon in soil CO2 efflux is crucial for addressing the carbon footprint of creeping degradation. Methodology: We compared the carbon allocation pattern of the late successional gymnosperm Podocarpus falcatus (Thunb.) Mirb. and the early successional (gap filling) angiosperm Croton macrostachyus Hochst. es Del. in an Ethiopian Afromontane forest by whole tree (CO2)-C-13 pulse labeling. Over a one-year period we monitored the temporal resolution of the label in the foliage, the phloem sap, the arbuscular mycorrhiza, and in soil-derived CO2. Further, we quantified the overall losses of assimilated C-13 with soil CO2 efflux. Principal Findings: C-13 in leaves of C. macrostachyus declined more rapidly with a larger size of a fast pool (64% vs. 50% of the assimilated carbon), having a shorter mean residence time (14 h vs. 55 h) as in leaves of P. falcatus. Phloem sap velocity was about 4 times higher for C. macrostachyus. Likewise, the label appeared earlier in the arbuscular mycorrhiza of C. macrostachyus and in the soil CO2 efflux as in case of P. falcatus (24 h vs. 72 h). Within one year soil CO2 efflux amounted to a loss of 32% of assimilated carbon for the gap filling tree and to 15% for the late successional one. Conclusions: Our results showed clear differences in carbon allocation patterns between tree species, although we caution that this experiment was unreplicated. A shift in tree species composition of tropical montane forests (e. g., by degradation) accelerates carbon allocation belowground and increases respiratory carbon losses by the autotrophic community. If ongoing disturbance keeps early successional species in dominance, the larger allocation to fast cycling compartments may deplete soil organic carbon in the long run.

Dette publique, développement monétaire international et demande de monnaie : une analyse à partir des tests de cointégration et du modèle à correction d'erreurs

Résumé : Ce document examine l'effet de la dette publique et du développement monétaire étranger (taux de change et taux d'intérêt étranger) sur la demande de monnaie de long-terme. Le déficit budgétaire est utilisé comme mesure de la dette publique. Cette étude est menée sur cinq pays industrialisés: le Canada, les États-Unis, l'Allemagne, le Royaume-Uni et la France. Le modèle multivarié de cointégration de Johansen & Juselius (1990) est utilisé pour établir le lien entre ces trois variables et la demande de monnaie. Ce modèle examine indirectement deux effets: les effets du déficit budgétaire sur le taux d'intérêt et du développement monétaire étranger sur le taux d'intérêt, à travers la demande de monnaie. L'évidence d'une relation de cointégration entre la demande de monnaie et les dites variables est vérifiée pour la plupart de ces pays. Le test d'exclusion des variables de la relation de long-terme nous révèle que toutes ces variables entrent de façon significative dans la relation de cointégration. Ces résultats suggèrent donc aux autorités monétaires, l'importance de tenir compte à la fois du déficit bugétaire et du développement monétaire étranger dans la formulation de la politique monétaire.||Abstract : This paper examines the impact of both public debt and foreign monetary developments (exchange rate and interest rate) on the long-run money demand. The budget déficit is used as a measure of public debt. Five industrial countries are considered, Canada, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and France. The multivariate cointegration model of Johansen & Juselius (1990) is used to establish the relationship between this tree variables and the money demand. This model indirectly examines two effects, the effect of budget déficits on interest rates and the effect of foreign monetary developments on the interest rates, both through money demand. Evidence of long-run relationship between the money demand and the defined variables are found for almost every country. The long-run exclusion test shows that ail these variables significantly enter into the cointegration relation. This suggests that, in formulating monetary policies, policy makers should take into account the influence of both budget déficit and foreign monetary developments on the money demand.

The state and known impacts of fish species transferred to or within continental Africa

Fish introductions have been made from small fish ponds to the largest lakes in Africa. The primary intent of these introductions has been to sustain or increase fish production, although some introductions have been made to develop sport fisheries and to control unwanted organisms. Some of these introductions have fulfilled their objective in the short term, but several of these "successful" introductions have created uncertainties about their long term sustainability. Lates niloticus, Oreochromis niloticus, O. leucostictus, Tilapia melanopleura and T. zilli were introduced into lakes Victoria and Kyoga in 1950s and early 1960s. By the 1980s O. niloticus and O. niloticus dominated the fisheries of these lakes, virtually eliminating a number of endemic fish species. The loss of genetic diversity of the fish in the worlds second largest lake has also been accompanied by a loss of trophic diversity. The transformation of the fish community has, in Lake Victoria coincided with a profound eutrophication (algal blooms, fish kills, hypolimnetic anoxia) which might be related to alterations of the lake's food-web structure. In contrast, the introduction of a planktivore, Limnothrissa miodon into Lake Kivu and the Kariba reservoir has established highly successful fisheries with little documented effect on the pre-existing fish community or trophic ecology of the lakes. The highly endemised species-rich African Great lakes may be particularly sensitive to species introductions and require special consideration and caution when introductions are contemplated because species extinctions, introgressive hybridization and ecosystem alterations may occur following fish introductions.

Unusual antibiotic presence in gym trained subjects with food intolerance: a case report

Introduction: Great interest is raising in food intolerances due to the lack, in many cases, of a particular sensitizing agent. Objective: We investigated the serum level of possible new haptens in 15 heavy meat consumers for sport fitness affected by various kinds of food intolerance and who had ever been administered antibiotics in their life for clinical problems. Methods: Forty ml of blood were drawn from each patient and analyzed, by means of an ELISA test, in order to possibly identify the presence of an undue contaminant with hapten properties. Results: Four out of fifteen subjects (26%) showed a serum oxytetracycline amount > 6 ng/g (which is considered the safety limit), 10 of 15 (66%) a serum doxycycline amount > of 6 ng/g and 3 out of 15 (30%) subjects had high serum level of both molecules. Conclusions: Although a direct ratio between body antibiotics remnant storage in the long run and chronic gut dysfunctions and/or food allergy did not reached the evidence yet, the blood traces of these compounds in a food intolerant otherwise healthy population might be considered the preliminary putative step of a sensitizing pathway. Our next goals foresee a deeper insight into the sensitizing trigger from human chronic antibiotic exposure via the zootechnical delivery of poultry food.

Neutrophil Chemotaxis in Multiple Chemoattractant Gradients

Chemotaxis, the phenomenon in which cells move in response to extracellular chemical gradients, plays a prominent role in the mammalian immune response. During this process, a number of chemical signals, called chemoattractants, are produced at or proximal to sites of infection and diffuse into the surrounding tissue. Immune cells sense these chemoattractants and move in the direction where their concentration is greatest, thereby locating the source of attractants and their associated targets. Leading the assault against new infections is a specialized class of leukocytes (white blood cells) known as neutrophils, which normally circulate in the bloodstream. Upon activation, these cells emigrate out of the vasculature and navigate through interstitial tissues toward target sites. There they phagocytose bacteria and release a number of proteases and reactive oxygen intermediates with antimicrobial activity. Neutrophils recruited by infected tissue in vivo are likely confronted by complex chemical environments consisting of a number of different chemoattractant species. These signals may include end target chemicals produced in the vicinity of the infectious agents, and endogenous chemicals released by local host tissues during the inflammatory response. To successfully locate their pathogenic targets within these chemically diverse and heterogeneous settings, activated neutrophils must be capable of distinguishing between the different signals and employing some sort of logic to prioritize among them. This ability to simultaneously process and interpret mulitple signals is thought to be essential for efficient navigation of the cells to target areas. In particular, aberrant cell signaling and defects in this functionality are known to contribute to medical conditions such as chronic inflammation, asthma and rheumatoid arthritis. To elucidate the biomolecular mechanisms underlying the neutrophil response to different chemoattractants, a number of efforts have been made toward understanding how cells respond to different combinations of chemicals. Most notably, recent investigations have shown that in the presence of both end target and endogenous chemoattractant variants, the cells migrate preferentially toward the former type, even in very low relative concentrations of the latter. Interestingly, however, when the cells are exposed to two different endogenous chemical species, they exhibit a combinatorial response in which distant sources are favored over proximal sources. Some additional results also suggest that cells located between two endogenous chemoattractant sources will respond to the vectorial sum of the combined gradients. In the long run, this peculiar behavior could result in oscillatory cell trajectories between the two sources. To further explore the significance of these and other observations, particularly in the context of physiological conditions, we introduce in this work a simplified phenomenological model of neutrophil chemotaxis. In particular, this model incorporates a trait commonly known as directional persistence - the tendency for migrating neutrophils to continue moving in the same direction (much like momentum) - while also accounting for the dose-response characteristics of cells to different chemical species. Simulations based on this model suggest that the efficiency of cell migration in complex chemical environments depends significantly on the degree of directional persistence. In particular, with appropriate values for this parameter, cells can improve their odds of locating end targets by drifting through a network of attractant sources in a loosely-guided fashion. This corroborates the prediction that neutrophils randomly migrate from one chemoattractant source to the next while searching for their end targets. These cells may thus use persistence as a general mechanism to avoid being trapped near sources of endogenous chemoattractants - the mathematical analogue of local maxima in a global optimization problem. Moreover, this general foraging strategy may apply to other biological processes involving multiple signals and long-range navigation.

Uma análise da política econômica a partir do desempenho da indústria automotiva brasileira no cenário econômico de 2003-2014

Entre 2003 e 2008, o Brasil apresentou um positivo desempenho econômico em meio a um cenário externo favorável, entretanto a partir da crise de 2008, o governo brasileiro passou a adotar medidas anticíclicas a fim de minimizar os efeitos externos da crise. Essas medidas objetivaram o incentivo da demanda agregada, o que realmente sofreu um efeito positivo de curto prazo, entretanto essas políticas, além de apresentar uma natureza limitada, podem levar a cenários futuros indesejados para o desenvolvimento econômico, como o aumento da inadimplência e taxa elevadas de inflação. Somado a isso, as medidas de incentivos de inovação e de desenvolvimento tecnológico foram interrompidas pela crise ou não implementadas de forma efetiva. Diante disto, a monografia se propõe a analisar os efeitos dessas políticas de incentivo à demanda adotada no período a partir de uma análise da indústria automotiva brasileira, uma das indústrias mais poderosas e receptoras de incentivos governamentais, já que apresenta um caráter dinâmico e movimenta um grande número de indústrias de base. Logo, para que a indústria automotiva cresça e se desenvolva de forma sustentável, bem como os outros setores, o incentivo não deve ser de cunho setorial, por tanto, temporário, deve ser de natureza permanente e abrangente. Além disso, um incentivo da demanda terá resultados positivos com os incentivos tecnológicos, inovadores e de qualificação do capital humano para uma crescente exportação, levando a saldos positivos da balança comercial e, consequentemente, maiores investimentos a partir de uma indústria mais competitiva.