History of cholelithiasis and cancer risk in a network of case-control studies.

Background We analyzed the relationship between cholelithiasis and cancer risk in a network of case-control studies conducted in Italy and Switzerland in 1982-2009. Methods The analyses included 1997 oropharyngeal, 917 esophageal, 999 gastric, 23 small intestinal, 3726 colorectal, 684 liver, 688 pancreatic, 1240 laryngeal, 6447 breast, 1458 endometrial, 2002 ovarian, 1582 prostate, 1125 renal cell, 741 bladder cancers, and 21 284 controls. The odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by multiple logistic regression models. Results The ORs for subjects with history of cholelithiasis compared with those without were significantly elevated for small intestinal (OR = 3.96), prostate (OR = 1.36), and kidney cancers (OR = 1.57). These positive associations were observed ≥10 years after diagnosis of cholelithiasis and were consistent across strata of age, sex, and body mass index. No relation was found with the other selected cancers. A meta-analysis including this and three other studies on the relation of cholelithiasis with small intestinal cancer gave a pooled relative risk of 2.35 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.82-3.03]. Conclusion In subjects with cholelithiasis, we showed an appreciably increased risk of small intestinal cancer and suggested a moderate increased risk of prostate and kidney cancers. We found no material association with the other cancers considered.

Treatment deviating from guidelines does not influence status epilepticus prognosis.

Status epilepticus (SE) prognosis is related to nonmodifiable factors (age, etiology), but the exact role of drug treatment is unclear. This study was undertaken to address the prognostic role of treatment adherence to guidelines (TAG). We prospectively studied over 26 months a cohort of adults with incident SE (excluding postanoxic). TAG was assessed in terms of drug doses (± 30 % of recommendations) and medication sequence; its prognostic impact on mortality and return to baseline conditions was adjusted for etiology, SE severity [Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS)], and comorbidities. Of 225 patients, 26 (12 %) died and 82 (36 %) were discharged with a new handicap; TAG was observed in 142 (63 %). On univariate analysis, age, etiology, SE severity, and comorbidities were significantly related to outcome, while TAG was associated with neither outcome nor likelihood of SE control. Logistic regression for mortality identified etiology [odds ratio (OR) 18.8, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 4.3-82.8] and SE severity (STESS ≥ 3; OR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.2-2.4) as independent predictors, and for lack of return to baseline, again etiology (OR 7.4, 95 % CI 3.9-14.0) and STESS ≥ 3 (OR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.4-2.2). Similar results were found for the subgroup of 116 patients with generalized-convulsive SE. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analyses confirmed that TAG did not improve outcome prediction. This study of a large SE cohort suggests that treatment adherence to recommendations using current medications seems to play a negligible prognostic role (class III), confirming the importance of the biological background. Awaiting further treatment trials, it appears mandatory to apply resources towards identification of new therapeutic approaches.

Personality traits are associated with acute major depression across the age spectrum.

Objectives: Psychological predictors, such as personality traits, have aroused growing interest as possible predictors of late-life depression outcome in old age. It remains, however, unclear whether the cross-sectional relationship between personality traits and depression occurrence reported in younger samples is also present in the elderly. Methods: Comparisons amongst 79 outpatients with DSM-IV major depression and 102 healthy controls included assessment of the five-factor model of personality (NEO PI-R), socio-demographic variables, physical health status, as well as depression features. Two sub-groups were considered, defined as young (25-50 years) and old (60-85 years) patients. Results: Depressed patients showed significantly higher levels of Neuroticism and lower levels of Extraversion, Openness to Experience and Conscientiousness compared to controls. Sequential logistic regression models confirmed that the combination of increased physical burden, levels of dependency, and increased Neuroticism strongly predicts the occurrence of acute depressive symptoms. In contrast, the levels of Neuroticism did not allow for differentiating late-life from young age depression. Increased physical burden and decreased depression severity were the main predictors for this distinction. Conclusion: Our data indicate that personality factors and depression are related, independently of patients' age. Differences in this relationship are mainly due to the intensity of depressive symptoms rather than the patients' life period. They also stress the need to consider physical health, level of dependency and severity of symptoms when studying the relationship between personality traits and mood disorders.

Effects of particulate matters on inflammatory markers in the general adult population

Summary: Particulate air pollution is associated with increased cardiovascular risk. The induction of systemic inflammation following particle inhalation represents a plausible mechanistic pathway. The purpose of this study was to assess the associations of short-term exposure to ambient particulate matters of aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM10) with circulating inflammatory markers in 6183 adults in Lausanne, Switzerland. The results show that short-term exposure to PM10 was associated with higher levels of circulating IL-6 and TNF-α. The positive association of PM10 with markers of systemic inflammation materializes the link between air pollution and cardiovascular risk. Background: Variations in short-term exposure to particulate matters (PM) have been repeatedly associated with daily all-cause mortality. Particle-induced inflammation has been postulated to be one of the important mechanisms for increased cardiovascular risk. Experimental in-vitro, in-vivo and controlled human studies suggest that interleukin 6 (IL-6) and tumor-necrosis-factor alpha (TNF-α) could represent key mediators of the inflammatory response to PM. The associations of short-term exposure to ambient PM with circulating inflammatory markers have been inconsistent in studies including specific subgroups so far. The epidemiological evidence linking short-term exposure to ambient PM and systemic inflammation in the general population is scarce. So far, large-scale population-based studies have not explored important inflammatory markers such as IL-6, IL-1β or TNF-α. We therefore analyzed the associations between short-term exposure to ambient PM10 and circulating levels of high-sensitive CRP (hs-CRP), IL-6, IL-1β and TNF-α in the population-based CoLaus study. Objectives: To assess the associations of short-term exposure to ambient particulate matters of aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM10) with circulating inflammatory markers, including hs-CRP, IL-6, IL-1β and TNF-α, in adults aged 35 to 75 years from the general population. Methodology: All study subjects were participants to the CoLaus study (www.colaus.ch) and the baseline examination was carried out from 2003 to 2006. Overall, 6184 participants were included. For the present analysis, 6183 participants had data on at least one of the four measured circulating inflammatory markers. The monitoring data was obtained from the website of Swiss National Air Pollution Monitoring Network (NABEL). We analyzed data on PM10 as well as outside air temperature, pressure and humidity. Hourly concentrations of PM10 were collected from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2006. Robust linear regression (PROC ROBUSTREG) was used to evaluate the relationship between cytokine inflammatory and PM10. We adjusted all analyses for age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, alcohol consumption, diabetes status, hypertension status, education levels, zip code, and statin intake. All data were adjusted for the effects of weather by including temperature, barometric pressure, and season as covariates in the adjusted models. We performed simple and multiple logistic regression analyses. Descriptive statistical analysis used the Wilcoxon rank sum test (for medians). All data analyses were performed using SAS software (version 9.2; SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA), and a two-sided significance level of 5% was used. Results: PM10 levels averaged over 24 hours were significantly and positively associated with continuous IL-6 and TNF-α levels, in the whole study population both in unadjusted and adjusted analyses. For each cytokine, there was a similar seasonal pattern, with wider confidence intervals in summer than during the other seasons, which might partly be due to the smaller number of participants examined in summer. The associations of PM10 with IL-6 and TNF-α were also found after having dichotomized these cytokines into high versus low levels, which suggests that the associations of PM10 with the continuous cytokine levels are very robust to any distributional assumption and to potential outlier values. In contrast with what we observed for continuous IL-1β levels, high PM10 levels were significantly associated with high IL-1β. PM10 was significantly associated with IL-6 and TNF-α in men, but with TNF-α only in women. However, there was no significant statistical interaction between PM10 and sex. For IL-6 and TNF-α, the associations tended to be stronger in younger people, with a significant interaction between PM10 and age groups for IL-6. PM10 was significantly associated with IL-6 and TNF-α in the healthy group and also in the "non-healthy" group, although the statistical interaction between healthy status and PM10 was not significant. Conclusion: In summary, we found significant independent positive associations of short-term exposure to PM10 with circulating levels of IL-6 and TNF-α in the adult population of Lausanne. Our findings strongly support the idea that short-term exposure to PM10 is sufficient to induce systemic inflammation on a broad scale in the general population. From a public health perspective, the reported association of elevated inflammatory cytokines with short-term exposure to PM10 in a city with relatively clean air such as Lausanne supports the importance of limiting urban air pollution levels.

Combined effect of tobacco and alcohol on laryngeal cancer risk : a case-control study

OBJECTIVE: To provide information on the effects of alcohol and tobacco on laryngeal cancer and its subsites. METHODS: This was a case-control study conducted between 1992 and 2000 in northern Italy and Switzerland. A total of 527 cases of incident squamous-cell carcinoma of the larynx and 1297 hospital controls frequency-matched with cases on age, sex, and area of residence were included. Odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: In comparison with never smokers, ORs were 19.8 for current smokers and 7.0 for ex-smokers. The risk increased in relation to the number of cigarettes (OR = 42.9 for > or = 25 cigarettes/day) and for duration of smoking (OR = 37.2 for > or = 40 years). For alcohol, the risk increased in relation to number of drinks (OR = 5.9 for > or = 56 drinks per week). Combined alcohol and tobacco consumption showed a multiplicative (OR = 177) rather than an additive risk. For current smokers and current drinkers the risk was higher for supraglottis (ORs 54.9 and 2.6, respectively) than for glottis (ORs 7.4 and 1.8) and others subsites (ORs 10.9 and 1.9). CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that both cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking are independent risk factors for laryngeal cancer. Heavy consumption of alcohol and cigarettes determined a multiplicative risk increase, possibly suggesting biological synergy.

Comorbidity and nutritional indices as predictors of morbidity after transurethral procedures: A prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Preoperative scores are widely used predictors of complications after major surgery. These scores, however, are not widely used in transurethral procedures. The aim of this study was to assess the value of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), the age-adjusted CCI, the American Society of Anesthesiologist score (ASA) and the Nutritional Risk Score (NRS) in predicting early morbidity after transurethral urological procedures. METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing transurethral resection of the bladder or the prostate were prospectively enrolled. The scores were calculated preoperatively; 30-day complications were prospectively recorded according to the Dindo-Clavien classification. Univariate logistic regression was performed to investigate the value of each score and of other factors (i.e., age, sex, body mass index, anemia, smoking habit, type of operation and anaesthesia) as predictors of complications. A multivariate model was then calculated using these predictors. RESULTS: Overall, 197 patients were included. The mean age was 72 (standard deviation ± 10). In total, 26.9% patients had at least 1 complication. Using univariate analysis, we found that each score significantly predicted complications. In multivariate analysis, only the ASA (odds ration [OR] 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-4.43) and the NRS (OR 2.42; 95% CI 1.56-3.74) remained independent predictors. The best model incorporated ASA, NRS and gender, and predicted morbidity with an area under the curve of 76%. Our study's main limitations are population heterogeneity and limited sample size. CONCLUSION: The ASA and the NRS are important and independent determinants of early morbidity after transurethral procedures. The use of these indices may assist clinicians in the decision-making process to balance the possible benefits of transurethral procedures with the potential risks.

Transcranial Doppler for predicting delayed cerebral ischemia after subarachnoid hemorrhage.

OBJECTIVE: Transcranial Doppler (TCD) is widely used to monitor the temporal course of vasospasm after subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), but its ability to predict clinical deterioration or infarction from delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) remains controversial. We sought to determine the prognostic utility of serial TCD examination after SAH. METHODS: We analyzed 1877 TCD examinations in 441 aneurysmal SAH patients within 14 days of onset. The highest mean blood flow velocity (mBFV) value in any vessel before DCI onset was recorded. DCI was defined as clinical deterioration or computed tomographic evidence of infarction caused by vasospasm, with adjudication by consensus of the study team. Logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios for DCI risk after controlling for other risk factors. RESULTS: DCI occurred in 21% of patients (n = 92). Multivariate predictors of DCI included modified Fisher computed tomographic score (P = 0.001), poor clinical grade (P = 0.04), and female sex (P = 0.008). After controlling for these variables, all TCD mBFV thresholds between 120 and 180 cm/s added a modest degree of incremental predictive value for DCI at nearly all time points, with maximal sensitivity by SAH day 8. However, the sensitivity of any mBFV more than 120 cm/s for subsequent DCI was only 63%, with a positive predictive value of 22% among patients with Hunt and Hess grades I to III and 36% in patients with Hunt and Hess grades IV and V. Positive predictive value was only slightly higher if mBFV exceeded 180 cm/s. CONCLUSION: Increased TCD flow velocities imply only a mild incremental risk of DCI after SAH, with maximal sensitivity by day 8. Nearly 40% of patients with DCI never attained an mBFV more than 120 cm/s during the course of monitoring. Given the poor overall sensitivity of TCD, improved methods for identifying patients at high risk for DCI after SAH are needed.

Cigarette, cigar, and pipe smoking and the risk of head and neck cancers: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

Cigar and pipe smoking are considered risk factors for head and neck cancers, but the magnitude of effect estimates for these products has been imprecisely estimated. By using pooled data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium (comprising 13,935 cases and 18,691 controls in 19 studies from 1981 to 2007), we applied hierarchical logistic regression to more precisely estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for cigarette, cigar, and pipe smoking separately, compared with reference groups of those who had never smoked each single product. Odds ratios for cigar and pipe smoking were stratified by ever cigarette smoking. We also considered effect estimates of smoking a single product exclusively versus never having smoked any product (reference group). Among never cigarette smokers, the odds ratio for ever cigar smoking was 2.54 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.93, 3.34), and the odds ratio for ever pipe smoking was 2.08 (95% CI: 1.55, 2.81). These odds ratios increased with increasing frequency and duration of smoking (Ptrend ≤ 0.0001). Odds ratios for cigar and pipe smoking were not elevated among ever cigarette smokers. Head and neck cancer risk was elevated for those who reported exclusive cigar smoking (odds ratio = 3.49, 95% CI: 2.58, 4.73) or exclusive pipe smoking (odds ratio = 3.71, 95% CI: 2.59, 5.33). These results suggest that cigar and pipe smoking are independently associated with increased risk of head and neck cancers.

Gazpacho consumption is associated with lower blood pressure and reduced hypertension in a high cardiovascular risk cohort. Cross-sectional study of the PREDIMED trial

Hypertension is a major public health problem and a leading cause of death and disability in both developed and developing countries, affecting onequarter of the world"s adult population. Our aim was to evaluate whether the consumption of gazpacho, a Mediterranean vegetable-based cold soup rich in phytochemicals, is associated with lower blood pressure (BP) and/or reduced prevalence of hypertension in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results: We selected 3995 individuals (58% women, mean age 67 y) at high cardiovascular risk (81% hypertensive) recruited into the PREDIMED study. BP, weight, and dietary and physical activity data were collected. In multivariate linear regression analyses, after adjustment, moderate and high gazpacho consumption categories were associated with reduced mean systolic BP of 1.9 mm Hg [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.4; 0.6] and 2.6 mm Hg (CI: 4.2; 1.0), respectively, and reduced diastolic BP of 1.5 mm Hg (CI: 2.3; 0.6) and 1.9 mm Hg (CI: 2.8; 1.1). By multiple-adjusted logistic regression analysis, gazpacho consumption was associated with a lower prevalence of hypertension, with OR Z 0.85 (CI: 0.73; 0.99) for each 250 g/week increase and OR Z 0.73 (CI: 0.55; 0.98) for high gazpacho consumption groups compared to the no-consumption group. Conclusions: Gazpacho consumption was inversely associated with systolic and diastolic BP and prevalence of hypertension in a cross-sectional Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. The association between gazpacho intake and reduction of BP is probably due to synergy among several bioactive compounds present in the vegetable ingredients used to make the recipe.

Alcohol consumption and binge drinking in young adult childhood cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND: This study compared frequency of alcohol consumption and binge drinking between young adult childhood cancer survivors and the general population in Switzerland, and assessed its socio-demographic and clinical determinants. PROCEDURE: Childhood cancer survivors aged <16 years when diagnosed 1976-2003, who had survived >5 years and were currently aged 20-40 years received a postal questionnaire. Reported frequency of alcohol use and of binge drinking were compared to the Swiss Health Survey, a representative general population survey. Determinants of frequent alcohol consumption and binge drinking were assessed in a multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 1,697 eligible survivors, 1,447 could be contacted and 1,049 (73%) responded. Survivors reported more often than controls to consume alcohol frequently (OR = 1.7; 95%CI = 1.3-2.1) and to engage in binge drinking (OR = 2.9; 95%CI = 2.3-3.8). Peak frequency of binge drinking in males occurred at age 24-26 years in survivors, compared to age 18-20 in the general population. Socio-demographic factors (male gender, high educational attainment, French and Italian speaking, and migration background from Northern European countries) were most strongly associated with alcohol consumption patterns among both survivors and controls. CONCLUSIONS: The high frequency of alcohol consumption found in this study is a matter of concern. Our data suggest that survivors should be better informed on the health effects of alcohol consumption during routine follow-up, and that such counseling should be included in clinical guidelines. Future research should study motives of alcohol consumption among survivors to allow development of targeted health interventions for this vulnerable group.

Gazpacho consumption is associated with lower blood pressure and reduced hypertension in a high cardiovascular risk cohort. Cross-sectional study of the PREDIMED trial

Hypertension is a major public health problem and a leading cause of death and disability in both developed and developing countries, affecting onequarter of the world"s adult population. Our aim was to evaluate whether the consumption of gazpacho, a Mediterranean vegetable-based cold soup rich in phytochemicals, is associated with lower blood pressure (BP) and/or reduced prevalence of hypertension in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results: We selected 3995 individuals (58% women, mean age 67 y) at high cardiovascular risk (81% hypertensive) recruited into the PREDIMED study. BP, weight, and dietary and physical activity data were collected. In multivariate linear regression analyses, after adjustment, moderate and high gazpacho consumption categories were associated with reduced mean systolic BP of 1.9 mm Hg [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.4; 0.6] and 2.6 mm Hg (CI: 4.2; 1.0), respectively, and reduced diastolic BP of 1.5 mm Hg (CI: 2.3; 0.6) and 1.9 mm Hg (CI: 2.8; 1.1). By multiple-adjusted logistic regression analysis, gazpacho consumption was associated with a lower prevalence of hypertension, with OR Z 0.85 (CI: 0.73; 0.99) for each 250 g/week increase and OR Z 0.73 (CI: 0.55; 0.98) for high gazpacho consumption groups compared to the no-consumption group. Conclusions: Gazpacho consumption was inversely associated with systolic and diastolic BP and prevalence of hypertension in a cross-sectional Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. The association between gazpacho intake and reduction of BP is probably due to synergy among several bioactive compounds present in the vegetable ingredients used to make the recipe.

Gazpacho consumption is associated with lower blood pressure and reduced hypertension in a high cardiovascular risk cohort. Cross-sectional study of the PREDIMED trial

Hypertension is a major public health problem and a leading cause of death and disability in both developed and developing countries, affecting onequarter of the world"s adult population. Our aim was to evaluate whether the consumption of gazpacho, a Mediterranean vegetable-based cold soup rich in phytochemicals, is associated with lower blood pressure (BP) and/or reduced prevalence of hypertension in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results: We selected 3995 individuals (58% women, mean age 67 y) at high cardiovascular risk (81% hypertensive) recruited into the PREDIMED study. BP, weight, and dietary and physical activity data were collected. In multivariate linear regression analyses, after adjustment, moderate and high gazpacho consumption categories were associated with reduced mean systolic BP of 1.9 mm Hg [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.4; 0.6] and 2.6 mm Hg (CI: 4.2; 1.0), respectively, and reduced diastolic BP of 1.5 mm Hg (CI: 2.3; 0.6) and 1.9 mm Hg (CI: 2.8; 1.1). By multiple-adjusted logistic regression analysis, gazpacho consumption was associated with a lower prevalence of hypertension, with OR Z 0.85 (CI: 0.73; 0.99) for each 250 g/week increase and OR Z 0.73 (CI: 0.55; 0.98) for high gazpacho consumption groups compared to the no-consumption group. Conclusions: Gazpacho consumption was inversely associated with systolic and diastolic BP and prevalence of hypertension in a cross-sectional Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. The association between gazpacho intake and reduction of BP is probably due to synergy among several bioactive compounds present in the vegetable ingredients used to make the recipe.

Gazpacho consumption is associated with lower blood pressure and reduced hypertension in a high cardiovascular risk cohort. Cross-sectional study of the PREDIMED trial

Hypertension is a major public health problem and a leading cause of death and disability in both developed and developing countries, affecting onequarter of the world"s adult population. Our aim was to evaluate whether the consumption of gazpacho, a Mediterranean vegetable-based cold soup rich in phytochemicals, is associated with lower blood pressure (BP) and/or reduced prevalence of hypertension in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results: We selected 3995 individuals (58% women, mean age 67 y) at high cardiovascular risk (81% hypertensive) recruited into the PREDIMED study. BP, weight, and dietary and physical activity data were collected. In multivariate linear regression analyses, after adjustment, moderate and high gazpacho consumption categories were associated with reduced mean systolic BP of 1.9 mm Hg [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.4; 0.6] and 2.6 mm Hg (CI: 4.2; 1.0), respectively, and reduced diastolic BP of 1.5 mm Hg (CI: 2.3; 0.6) and 1.9 mm Hg (CI: 2.8; 1.1). By multiple-adjusted logistic regression analysis, gazpacho consumption was associated with a lower prevalence of hypertension, with OR Z 0.85 (CI: 0.73; 0.99) for each 250 g/week increase and OR Z 0.73 (CI: 0.55; 0.98) for high gazpacho consumption groups compared to the no-consumption group. Conclusions: Gazpacho consumption was inversely associated with systolic and diastolic BP and prevalence of hypertension in a cross-sectional Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. The association between gazpacho intake and reduction of BP is probably due to synergy among several bioactive compounds present in the vegetable ingredients used to make the recipe.

Association of MMP-2 polymorphisms with severe and very severe COPD: a case control study of MMPs-1, 9 and 12 in a European population.

BACKGROUND: Genetic factors play a role in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) but are poorly understood. A number of candidate genes have been proposed on the basis of the pathogenesis of COPD. These include the matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) genes which play a role in tissue remodelling and fit in with the protease--antiprotease imbalance theory for the cause of COPD. Previous genetic studies of MMPs in COPD have had inadequate coverage of the genes, and have reported conflicting associations of both single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and SNP haplotypes, plausibly due to under-powered studies. METHODS: To address these issues we genotyped 26 SNPs, providing comprehensive coverage of reported SNP variation, in MMPs- 1, 9 and 12 from 977 COPD patients and 876 non-diseased smokers of European descent and evaluated their association with disease singly and in haplotype combinations. We used logistic regression to adjust for age, gender, centre and smoking history. RESULTS: Haplotypes of two SNPs in MMP-12 (rs652438 and rs2276109), showed an association with severe/very severe disease, corresponding to GOLD Stages III and IV. CONCLUSIONS: Those with the common A-A haplotype for these two SNPs were at greater risk of developing severe/very severe disease (p = 0.0039) while possession of the minor G variants at either SNP locus had a protective effect (adjusted odds ratio of 0.76; 95% CI 0.61 - 0.94). The A-A haplotype was also associated with significantly lower predicted FEV1 (42.62% versus 44.79%; p = 0.0129). This implicates haplotypes of MMP-12 as modifiers of disease severity.

La decisión de endeudamiento y los factores de mayor relevancia. Una aplicación empírica en la empresa industrial española

El presente trabajo aborda el estudio de los factores determinantes del endeudamiento empresarial para contrastar empíricamente la hipótesis del Pecking Order. El endeudamiento empresarial se mide junto a su madurez y para los diferentes tamaños empresariales dada la importancia de diferenciar sus posibles efectos contrapuestos o compensados. Los modelos utilizados para el contraste de hipótesis se han estimado con una muestra de 1.320 empresas manufactureras españolas proporcionada por la Encuesta sobre Estrategias Empresariales (ESEE), para el período 1993-2001. El análisis empírico aplica un modelo multivariante de regresión logística que permite concluir que la teoría del Pecking Order es la de mejor cumplimiento, además de constatarse que las empresas de menor tamaño tienen mayores dificultades de acceso a la financiación con deuda a largo plazo.