The mathematics of McTaggart's paradox

Mc Taggart's celebrated proof of the unreality of time is a chain of implications whose final step asserts that the A-series (i.e. the classification of events as past, present or future) is intrinsically contradictory. This is widely believed to be the heart of the argument, and it is where most attempted refutations have been addressed; yet, it is also the only part of the proof which may be generalised to other contexts, since none of the notions involved in it is specifically temporal. In fact, as I show in the first part of the paper, McTaggart's refutation of the A-series can be easily interpreted in mathematical terms; subsequently, in order to strengthen my claim, I apply the same framework by analogy to the cases of space, modality, and personal identity. Therefore, either McTaggart's proof as a whole may be extended to each of these notions, or it must embed some distinctly temporal element in one of the steps leading up to the contradiction of the A-series. I conclude by suggesting where this element might lay, and by hinting at what I believe to be the true logical fallacy of the proof.

Carnap and Kuhn on linguistic frameworks and scientific revolutions

Several recent works in history and philosophy of science have re-evaluated the alleged opposition between the theses put forth by logical empiricists such as Carnap and the so-called "post-positivists", such as Kuhn. Although the latter came to be viewed as having seriously challenged the logical positivist views of science, recent authors (e.g., Friedman, Reisch, Earman, Irzik and Grünberg) maintain that some of the most notable theses of the Kuhnian view of science have striking similarities with some aspects of Carnap's philosophy. Against that reading, Oliveira and Psillos argue that within Carnap's philosophy there is no place for the Kuhnian theses of incommensurability, holism, and theory-ladenness of observations. This paper presents each of those readings and argues that Carnap and Kuhn have non-opposing views on holism, incommensurability, the theory-ladenness of observations, and scientific revolutions. We note at the very end - without dwelling on the point, however - that they come apart on other matters, such as their views on metaphysics and on the context of discovery/justification distinction.

General terms and rigidity: another solution to the trivialization problem

In this paper I am concerned with the problem of applying the notion of rigidity to general terms. In Naming and Necessity, Kripke has clearly suggested that we should include some general terms among the rigid ones, namely, those common nouns semantically correlated with natural substances, species and phenomena, in general, natural kinds -'water', 'tiger', 'heat'- and some adjectives -'red', 'hot', 'loud'. However, the notion of rigidity has been defined for singular terms; after all, the notion that Kripke has provided us with is the notion of a rigid designator. But general terms do not designate single individuals: rather, they apply to many of them. In sum, the original concept of rigidity cannot be straightforwardly applied to general terms: it has to be somehow redefined in order to make it cover them. As is known, two main positions have been put forward to accomplish that task: the identity of designation conception, according to which a rigid general term is one that designates the same property or kind in all possible worlds, and the essentialist conception, which conceives of a rigid general term as an essentialist one, namely, a term that expresses an essential property of an object. My purpose in the present paper is to defend a particular version of the identity of designation conception: on the proposed approach, a rigid general term will be one that expresses the same property in all possible worlds and names the property it expresses. In my opinion, the position can be established on the basis of an inference to the best explanation of our intuitive interpretation and evaluation, relative to counterfactual circumstances, of statements containing different kinds of general terms, which is strictly analogous to our intuitive interpretation and evaluation, relative to such circumstances, of statements containing different kinds of singular ones. I will argue that it is possible to offer a new solution to the trivialization problem that is thought to threaten all versions of the identity of designation conception of rigidity. Finally, I will also sketch a solution to the so-called 'over-generalization and under-generalization problems', both closely related to the above-mentioned one.

TOWARDS A PHILOSOPHICAL UNDERSTANDING OF THE LOGICS OF FORMAL INCONSISTENCY

Abstract In this paper we present a philosophical motivation for the logics of formal inconsistency , a family of paraconsistent logics whose distinctive feature is that of having resources for expressing the notion of consistency within the object language in such a way that consistency may be logically independent of non-contradiction. We defend the view according to which logics of formal inconsistency may be interpreted as theories of logical consequence of an epistemological character. We also argue that in order to philosophically justify paraconsistency there is no need to endorse dialetheism, the thesis that there are true contradictions. Furthermore, we show that mbC , a logic of formal inconsistency based on classical logic, may be enhanced in order to express the basic ideas of an intuitive interpretation of contradictions as conflicting evidence.

Inferential Rationality and Internalistic Scarecrows

Abstract In a recent paper, Manuel Pérez Otero attempted to turn the tables on Paul Boghossian's claim that content externalism is incompatible with the 'a priority of our logical abilities'. In reply, Boghossian argued that Pérez Otero's criticism misses the main point of his argument through concentrating on the semantics of singular (as opposed to general) terms. I elaborate on Boghossian's reply by showing that even taken on its own terms Pérez Otero's paper fails to engage with internalism through systematically misrepresenting what a truly internalistic account of the semantics of singular terms should be.

MCMC Analysis for Optimization of Stochastic Models

In any decision making under uncertainties, the goal is mostly to minimize the expected cost. The minimization of cost under uncertainties is usually done by optimization. For simple models, the optimization can easily be done using deterministic methods.However, many models practically contain some complex and varying parameters that can not easily be taken into account using usual deterministic methods of optimization. Thus, it is very important to look for other methods that can be used to get insight into such models. MCMC method is one of the practical methods that can be used for optimization of stochastic models under uncertainty. This method is based on simulation that provides a general methodology which can be applied in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state models. MCMC method is very important for practical applications because it is a uni ed estimation procedure which simultaneously estimates both parameters and state variables. MCMC computes the distribution of the state variables and parameters of the given data measurements. MCMC method is faster in terms of computing time when compared to other optimization methods. This thesis discusses the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for optimization of Stochastic models under uncertainties .The thesis begins with a short discussion about Bayesian Inference, MCMC and Stochastic optimization methods. Then an example is given of how MCMC can be applied for maximizing production at a minimum cost in a chemical reaction process. It is observed that this method performs better in optimizing the given cost function with a very high certainty.

Ennustavaa elinympäristömallinnusta oppikirjamaisissa muodoissa

Kirjallisuusarvostelu

Socially Competent Leadership - predictors, impacts and skilling in engineering

Earlier management studies have found a relationship between managerial qualities and subordinate impacts, but the effect of managers‘ social competence on leader perceptions has not been solidly established. To fill the related research gap, the present work embarks on a quantitative empirical effort to identify predictors of successful leadership. In particular, this study investigates relationships between perceived leader behavior and three selfreport instruments used to measure managerial capability: 1) the WOPI Work Personality Inventory, 2) Raven‘s general intelligence scale, and 3) the Emotive Communication Scale (ECS). This work complements previous research by resorting to both self-reports and other-reports: the results acquired from the managerial sample are compared to subordinate perceptions as measured through the ECS other-report and the WOPI360 multi-source appraisal. The quantitative research is comprised of a sample of 8o superiors and 354 subordinates operating in eight Finnish organizations. The strongest predictive value emerged from the ECS self- and other-reports and certain personality dimensions. In contrast, supervisors‘ logical intelligence did not correlate with leadership perceived as socially competent by subordinates. 16 of the superiors rated as most socially competent by their subordinates were selected for case analysis. Their qualitative narratives evidence the role of life history and post-traumatic growth in developing managerial skills. The results contribute to leadership theory in four ways. First, the ECS self-report devised for this research offers a reliable scale for predicting socially competent leader ability. Second, the work identifies dimensions of personality and emotive skills that can be considered predictors of managerial ability and benefited from in leader recruitment and career planning. Third, the Emotive Communication Model delineated on the basis of the empirical data allows for a systematic design and planning of communication and leadership education. Fourth, this workfurthers understanding of personal growth strategies and the role of life history in leader development and training. Finally, this research advances educational leadership by conceptualizing and operationalizing effective managerial communications. The Emotive Communication Model devised directs the pedagogic attention in engineering to assertion, emotional availability and inspiration skills. The proposed methodology addresses classroom management strategies drawing from problem-based learning, student empowerment, collaborative learning, and so-called socially competent teachership founded on teacher immediacy and perceived caring, all constituting strategies moving away from student compliance and teacher modelling. The ultimate educational objective embraces the development of individual engineers and organizational leaders that not only possess traditional analytical and technical expertise and substantive knowledge but are intelligent also creatively, practically, and socially.

Application of fuzzy logic for the evaluation of livestock slaughtering

The fuzzy logic admits infinite intermediate logical values between false and true. With this principle, it developed in this study a system based on fuzzy rules, which indicates the body mass index of ruminant animals in order to obtain the best time to slaughter. The controller developed has as input the variables weight and height, and as output a new body mass index, called Fuzzy Body Mass Index (Fuzzy BMI), which may serve as a detection system at the time of livestock slaughtering, comparing one another by the linguistic variables "Very Low", "Low", "Average ", "High" and "Very High". For demonstrating the use application of this fuzzy system, an analysis was made with 147 Nellore beeves to determine Fuzzy BMI values for each animal and indicate the location of body mass of any herd. The performance validation of the system was based on a statistical analysis using the Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.923, representing a high positive correlation, indicating that the proposed method is appropriate. Thus, this method allows the evaluation of the herd comparing each animal within the group, thus providing a quantitative method of farmer decision. It was concluded that this study established a computational method based on fuzzy logic that mimics part of human reasoning and interprets the body mass index of any bovine species and in any region of the country.

Preventive diagnosis of dairy cow lameness

This research aimed to develop a Fuzzy inference based on expert system to help preventing lameness in dairy cattle. Hoof length, nutritional parameters and floor material properties (roughness) were used to build the Fuzzy inference system. The expert system architecture was defined using Unified Modelling Language (UML). Data were collected in a commercial dairy herd using two different subgroups (H1 and H2), in order to validate the Fuzzy inference functions. The numbers of True Positive (TP), False Positive (FP), True Negative (TN), and False Negative (FN) responses were used to build the classifier system up, after an established gold standard comparison. A Lesion Incidence Possibility (LIP) developed function indicates the chances of a cow becoming lame. The obtained lameness percentage in H1 and H2 was 8.40% and 1.77%, respectively. The system estimated a Lesion Incidence Possibility (LIP) of 5.00% and 2.00% in H1 and H2, respectively. The system simulation presented 3.40% difference from real cattle lameness data for H1, while for H2, it was 0.23%; indicating the system efficiency in decision-making.

Fuzzy modeling of broiler performance, raised from 1 to 21 days, subject to heat stress

ABSTRACT Given the need to obtain systems to better control broiler production environment, we performed an experiment with broilers from 1 to 21 days, which were submitted to different intensities and air temperature durations in conditioned wind tunnels and the results were used for validation of afuzzy model. The model was developed using as input variables: duration of heat stress (days), dry bulb air temperature (°C) and as output variable: feed intake (g) weight gain (g) and feed conversion (g.g-1). The inference method used was Mamdani, 20 rules have been prepared and the defuzzification technique used was the Center of Gravity. A satisfactory efficiency in determining productive responses is evidenced in the results obtained in the model simulation, when compared with the experimental data, where R2 values ​​calculated for feed intake, weight gain and feed conversion were 0.998, 0.981 and 0.980, respectively.

Sumea suositin elokuville

Suositusmenetelmien tarkoituksena on auttaa käyttäjää löytämään häntä kiinnostavia asioita ja välttämään asioita, joista hän ei pitäisi. Suositusmenetelmät antavat suosituk- set yleensä terävinä lukuina. Tässä työssä kehitetään suositusmenetelmä, joka antaa suo- situkset arvosanojen sumeina jäsenyysasteina. Menetelmän antamat suositukset voidaan myös perustella käyttäjälle. Menetelmä kuuluu pääosin yhteisösuodatusmenetelmiin, jois- sa suositukset tehdään käyttäjien antamien arvosanojen perusteella, mutta myös tietoa elokuvien tyylilajeista hyödynnetään suositustarkkuuden parantamiseksi. Sumeiden suo- situsten suositeltavuusjärjestyksen laskemiseen esitetään myös menetelmä. Käyttäjien elokuville antamat arvosanat voidaan käsittää sumeana datana. Käyttäjä voi kuvata arvosanaa esimerkiksi ilmaisulla ”noin 4”. Tästä syystä on loogista esittää suo- situksetkin sumeina lukuina. Tällöin käyttäjälle voidaan antaa tietoa suosituksen tark- kuudesta ja mahdollisista ristiriidoista. Epävarmojen suositusten tapauksessa käyttäjä voi painottaa enemmän muita tietolähteitä. Kokeiden perusteella kehitetty menetelmä antaa joissa tapauksissa selvästi vertailtavia menetelmiä parempia suosituksia, kun taas toisissa tapauksissa suositukset ovat selvästi heikompia.

Eräs näkökulma näkökulmiin

Kirjallisuusarvostelu

Pienen kokoluokan CHP-tuotannon kannattavuus kunnallisen lämpölaitoksen yhteydessä

Fossiiliset polttoainevarannot ovat ehtymässä. Nykyisen talouskasvumme perustuessa fossiilisten polttoaineiden kestämättömään käyttöön, on energiantuotantorakenteen muututtava. Euroopan Unioni on asettanut tavoitteet uusiutuvan energian osuuden lisäämiseksi. Näistä syistä johtuen kiinnostus uusiutuvaa energiaa ja hajautettua energiantuotantoa kohtaan on kasvanut viime aikoina. Tämän globaalin ilmiön rinnalla yhteiskuntarakenteen muutos Suomessa on johtanut tilanteeseen, jossa taloudellinen aktiviteetti kasvukeskusten ulkopuolella on hiipumassa. Loogisena ratkaisumallina on syntynyt hankkeita kuten Keski-Karjalan Kehitysyhtiö Oy:n Puhos 2013 - ympäristöalasta uutta liiketoimintaa - hanke. Tämä työ on Puhos 2013 - hankkeeseen tilattu tutkimus, jonka tavoitteena on puuta ja biokaasua polttoaineenaan käyttävän mikroturbiinitekniikkaan pohjautuvan pienen kokoluokan CHP tuotannon kannattavuuden selvittäminen kunnallisen lämpölaitoksen yhteydessä. Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin aluksi pienen kokoluokan CHP tuotannon kannattavuuteen vaikuttavat tekijät, jonka jälkeen opittua tietoa sovellettiin Kiteen Lämmön Arppentien lämpölaitoksen tapaukseen. Kiteen Lämmön taloudellisen kannattavuuden ohella tutkimuksessa huomioitiin uusien liiketoiminta mahdollisuuksien syntyminen alueelle. Käytetyt tutkimusmenetelmät olivat kvalitatiivinen analyysi ja perinteinen investoinnin kannattavuuslaskenta. Tutkimuksen tuloksena muodostettiin strategia, joka maksimoi molemmat edellä mainitut kannattavuuden näkökulmat. Kehitetyn strategian Kiteen Lämmön tulosta maksimoiva osuus muodostuu oman käyttösähkön tuottamisen aloittamisesta Arppentien lämpölaitoksella 30 kWe mikroturbiinilla käyttäen polttoaineena Bio10 Oy:n toimittamaa biokaasua. Uusien liiketoiminta mahdollisuuksien synty alueelle mahdollistetaan puolestaan kehittämällä puun kaasutukseen perustuva modulaarinen CHP laitos yhteistyössä Mekrijärven tutkimusaseman ja suomalaisten laitevalmistajien kanssa.