Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

"What is contemporary art? A review of two books by Terry Smith'

What is contemporary art and what are the key components of contemporary culture? This review demonstrates where Terry Smith provides important answers to this question. The books thus help to improve understanding of how art has changed in recent decades and how a global culture now shapes its parameters. This review does not however concur that Smith provides a convincing case for a complete cultural paradigm transformation.

Shape-formed ceramic superconductors by slip-casting

In order to rigorously test emerging applications using prototypes and pilot designs, high temperature superconductor (HTS) materials must be fabricated into a variety of shapes in an economical manner. We have developed a simple, economical, ceramic slip-casting approach to form complex shaped monolithic HTS articles for which high bulk density has been achieved. The sintered articles exhibit good Meissner signal and consist of phase-pure HTSC phase. A low transport critical current density is observed and is explained on the basis of densification and grain growth. © 1995 The Metallurgical of Society of AIME.

A Material Reverie

excerpt: from soil and stone is a work consisting of fifty drawings on paper organised in a grid. Each drawing is small, only 19 by 14 centimetres, and set out in portrait format. They each reference, either explicitly or abstractly, natural phenomena. These include plant forms, pollens, seeds, pods, and leaf shapes and each is painted with a dizzying and liquid array of techniques and technical finesse. Colour is used sparingly but tellingly, and all are generously and wetly composed, with each seeming to flow into the necessary rightness of composition. Within the overall work the feel is sometimes of the archive, a personal kind where pressed flowers are stumbled upon within a book. At other times they seem to image the stellar as one confronts the immensity of some planet suspended in the void. Again, as a recurring theme in Reynolds’ oeuvre, the notion of the taxonomy is sounded. The drawings are laid out to display difference and reveal through contrast essence. It is a mapping that illuminates a generous plentitude.

The structures of COPI-coated vesicles reveal alternate coatomer conformations and interactions

Transport between compartments of eukaryotic cells is mediated by coated vesicles. The archetypal protein coats COPI, COPII, and clathrin are conserved from yeast to human. Structural studies of COPII and clathrin coats assembled in vitro without membranes suggest that coat components assemble regular cages with the same set of interactions between components. Detailed three-dimensional structures of coated membrane vesicles have not been obtained. Here, we solved the structures of individual COPI-coated membrane vesicles by cryoelectron tomography and subtomogram averaging of in vitro reconstituted budding reactions. The coat protein complex, coatomer, was observed to adopt alternative conformations to change the number of other coatomers with which it interacts and to form vesicles with variable sizes and shapes. This represents a fundamentally different basis for vesicle coat assembly.

The doctrine of command responsibility in the midst of war : legal fallacy or reflection of reality

The history of war is blighted with astonishing reminders of man’s ability to cast his sense of humanity aside and inflict unspeakable harm upon one another. The ruthless bombing of Dresden, the callousness of the Nazi concentration camps and the massacre of the Tutsis are but a few of the atrocities that have haunted our past. In response to these atrocities, society has imposed an ever-increasing number of laws and rules to regulate warfare. Amongst these is the doctrine of command responsibility. The doctrine of command responsibility states that a commander is criminally liable for the crimes of his subordinates if he knew or should have known of their crimes. This paper will examine whether the doctrine is an appropriate and realistic legal standard to hold commanders accountable to or whether the doctrine is more a reflection of social sentiment and legal rhetoric. If the doctrine, and indeed the law of war in general, is unrealistic then the law cannot fulfil its purpose - that is, the prevention of atrocities. Instead of being solely a reflection of moral authority and social sentiments the law must also be a tool that guides and shapes the decisions and actions of the military through the chaotic and brutal nature of war...

Experimental investigation of the governing parameters in the electrospinning of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) scaffolds : structural characteristics of the pores

We sought to determine the impact of electrospinning parameters on a trustworthy criterion that could evidently improve the maximum applicability of fibrous scaffolds for tissue regeneration. We used an image analysis technique to elucidate the web permeability index (WPI) by modeling the formation of electrospun scaffolds. Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) (P3HB) scaffolds were fabricated according to predetermined conditions of levels in a Taguchi orthogonal design. The material parameters were the polymer concentration, conductivity, and volatility of the solution. The processing parameters were the applied voltage and nozzle-to-collector distance. With a law to monitor the WPI values when the polymer concentration or the applied voltage was increased, the pore interconnectivity was decreased. The quality of the jet instability altered the pore numbers, areas, and other structural characteristics, all of which determined the scaffold porosity and aperture interconnectivity. An initial drastic increase was observed in the WPI values because of the chain entanglement phenomenon above a 6 wt % P3HB content. Although the solution mixture significantly (p < 0.05) changed the scaffold architectural characteristics as a function of the solution viscosity and surface tension, it had a minor impact on the WPI values. The solution mixture gained the third place of significance, and the distance was approved as the least important factor.

Bubble extinction in Hele-Shaw flow with surface tension and kinetic undercooling regularisation

We perform an analytic and numerical study of an inviscid contracting bubble in a two-dimensional Hele-Shaw cell, where the effects of both surface tension and kinetic undercooling on the moving bubble boundary are not neglected. In contrast to expanding bubbles, in which both boundary effects regularise the ill-posedness arising from the viscous (Saffman-Taylor) instability, we show that in contracting bubbles the two boundary effects are in competition, with surface tension stabilising the boundary, and kinetic undercooling destabilising it. This competition leads to interesting bifurcation behaviour in the asymptotic shape of the bubble in the limit it approaches extinction. In this limit, the boundary may tend to become either circular, or approach a line or "slit" of zero thickness, depending on the initial condition and the value of a nondimensional surface tension parameter. We show that over a critical range of surface tension values, both these asymptotic shapes are stable. In this regime there exists a third, unstable branch of limiting self-similar bubble shapes, with an asymptotic aspect ratio (dependent on the surface tension) between zero and one. We support our asymptotic analysis with a numerical scheme that utilises the applicability of complex variable theory to Hele-Shaw flow.

Composition and morphology of particle emissions from in-use aircraft during takeoff and landing

In order to provide realistic data for air pollution inventories and source apportionment at airports, the morphology and composition of ultrafine particles (UFP) in aircraft engine exhaust were measured and characterized. For this purpose, two independent measurement techniques were employed to collect emissions during normal takeoff and landing operations at Brisbane Airport, Australia. PM1 emissions in the airfield were collected on filters and analyzed using the particle-induced X-ray emission (PIXE) technique. Morphological and compositional analyses of individual ultrafine particles in aircraft plumes were performed on silicon nitride membrane grids using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) combined with energy-dispersive X-ray microanalysis (EDX). TEM results showed that the deposited particles were in the range of 5 to 100 nm in diameter, had semisolid spherical shapes and were dominant in the nucleation mode (18 – 20 nm). The EDX analysis showed the main elements in the nucleation particles were C, O, S and Cl. The PIXE analysis of the airfield samples was generally in agreement with the EDX in detecting S, Cl, K, Fe and Si in the particles. The results of this study provide important scientific information on the toxicity of aircraft exhaust and their impact on local air quality.

Confucius Institutes as innovative tools of China's cultural diplomacy

"Chapter 5 by Hartig introduces Confucius Institutes as an innovative tool of China’s cultural diplomacy. It explains the origins and implications of this new approach to promote China’s culture abroad and thus to shape China’s image globally. The chapter draws on case studies of Con- fucius Institutes in Australia and Germany. It shows how China is adapting a Western instrument of cultural diplomacy, namely an organisation like the British Council or Goethe Institute, in an innovative manner to accomplish its goals in the most effective way. In contrast to British Councils or Goethe Institutes, Confucius Institutes are typically set up as joint ventures between Chinese and international partners. By exploring the advantages and disadvantages of this project for both sides, the chapter illustrates how the outside world shapes China and, in turn, China shapes the outside world in the context of cultural exchange and cooperation. It argues that global influences, namely the general negative perception of China in the West, have forced China not only to become active in the field of cultural diplomacy, but furthermore to strive for an innovative way to be successful."

Investigating homework as a social practice : a qualitative approach

This thesis examines the social practice of homework. It explores how homework is shaped by the discourses, policies and guidelines in circulation in a society at any given time with particular reference to one school district in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. This study investigates how contemporary homework reconstitutes the home as a pedagogical site where the power of the institution of schooling circulates regularly from school to home. It examines how the educational system shapes the organization of family life and how family experiences with homework may be different in different sites depending on the accessibility of various forms of cultural capital. This study employs a qualitative approach, incorporating multiple case studies, and is complemented by insights from institutional ethnography and critical discourse analysis. It draws on the theoretical concepts of Foucault including power and power relations, and governmentality and surveillance, as well as Bourdieu’s concepts of economic, social and cultural capital for analysis. It employs concepts from Bourdieu’s work as they have been expanded on by researchers including Reay (1998), Lareau (2000), and Griffith and Smith (2005). The studies of these researchers allowed for an examination of homework as it related to families and mothers’ work. Smith’s (1987; 1999) concepts of ruling relations, mothers’ unpaid labour, and the engine of inequality were also employed in the analysis. Family interviews with ten volunteer families, teacher focus group sessions with 15 teachers from six schools, homework artefacts, school newsletters, homework brochures, and publicly available assessment and evaluation policy documents from one school district were analyzed. From this analysis key themes emerged and the findings are documented throughout five data analysis chapters. This study shows a change in education in response to a system shaped by standards, accountability and testing. It documents an increased transference of educational responsibility from one educational stakeholder to another. This transference of responsibility shifts downward until it eventually reaches the family in the form of homework and educational activities. Texts in the form of brochures and newsletters, sent home from school, make available to parents specific subject positions that act as instruments of normalization. These subject positions promote a particular ‘ideal’ family that has access to certain types of cultural capital needed to meet the school’s expectations. However, the study shows that these resources are not equally available to all and some families struggle to obtain what is necessary to complete educational activities in the home. The increase in transference of educational work from the school to the home results in greater work for parents, particularly mothers. As well, consideration is given to mother’s role in homework and how, in turn, classroom instructional practices are sometimes dependent on the work completed at home with differential effects for children. This study confirms previous findings that it is mothers who assume the greatest role in the educational trajectory of their children. An important finding in this research is that it is not only middle-class mothers who dedicate extensive time working hard to ensure their children’s educational success; working-class mothers also make substantial contributions of time and resources to their children’s education. The assignments and educational activities distributed as homework require parents’ knowledge of technical school pedagogy to help their children. Much of the homework being sent home from schools is in the area of literacy, particularly reading, but requires parents to do more than read with children. A key finding is that the practices of parents are changing and being reconfigured by the expectations of schools in regard to reading. Parents are now being required to monitor and supervise children’s reading, as well as help children complete reading logs, written reading responses, and follow up questions. The reality of family life as discussed by the participants in this study does not match the ‘ideal’ as portrayed in the educational documents. Homework sessions often create frustrations and tensions between parents and children. Some of the greatest struggles for families were created by mathematical homework, homework for those enrolled in the French Immersion program, and the work required to complete Literature, Heritage and Science Fair projects. Even when institutionalized and objectified capital was readily available, many families still encountered struggles when trying to carry out the assigned educational tasks. This thesis argues that homework and education-related activities play out differently in different homes. Consideration of this significance may assist educators to better understand and appreciate the vast difference in families and the ways in which each family can contribute to their children’s educational trajectory.

An accurate numerical scheme for the contraction of a bubble in a Hele-Shaw cell

We report on an accurate numerical scheme for the evolution of an inviscid bubble in radial Hele-Shaw flow, where the nonlinear boundary effects of surface tension and kinetic undercooling are included on the bubble-fluid interface. As well as demonstrating the onset of the Saffman-Taylor instability for growing bubbles, the numerical method is used to show the effect of the boundary conditions on the separation (pinch-off) of a contracting bubble into multiple bubbles, and the existence of multiple possible asymptotic bubble shapes in the extinction limit. The numerical scheme also allows for the accurate computation of bubbles which pinch off very close to the theoretical extinction time, raising the possibility of computing solutions for the evolution of bubbles with non-generic extinction behaviour.

International trends in early childhood education for sustainability

Early childhood education for sustainability (ECEfS) is an emerging field within education – a synthesis of early childhood education and education for sustainability. As a distinct field of educational inquiry and practice, it is less than 20 years old in Australia. My personal story is one that emerged from teaching Aboriginal children in an Indigenous community. These experiences made me question the marginalization of Indigenous peoples in Australian society, the colonizing impacts of education, gave me deeper understandings of human-environment interactions, and the effects of poverty and powerlessness on options for Indigenous people in Australia and elsewhere where people and their lands have been exploited. These experiences saw me return to university to undertake a degree in environmental studies to help me better understand the nexus between society, environment and economy. Hence my background in education for sustainability comes as much from the social sciences as from the biological/ecological sciences and shapes my orientation to my work in ECEFS...

Unmasking workshop ecology in applied performance

This practice-led research enquiry identifies, develops and illustrates workshop ecology in Applied Performance. It explores how Applied Performance forms are applied in and transformed through action in two distinct community-learning settings. The research is undertaken in two performance sites. The first, involving an executive leadership program addressing complex project management for Australia's Defence Materiel Organisation in Canberra, Australia. The second, a sexual health, HIV and AIDS education program to raise awareness and encourage the prevention of transmission of sexual diseases within Karkar Island, Papua New Guinea. The research strategies draw upon a mixed method approach involving practice-led research participant observation. The findings from each performance site show how the workshop ecology shapes and transforms performance forms as they are applied and influences the degree to which they are effective. It is anticipated that the findings from this research will assist Applied Performance practitioners to more carefully consider workshop ecology in the design and delivery of Applied Performances.

The water catchment : fast forward to the past

The Water Catchment: fast forward to the past comprises two parts: a creative piece and an exegesis. The methodology is Creative Practice as Research; a process of critical reflection, where I observe how researching the exegesis, in my case analysing how the social reality of an era in which an author writes affects their writing of the protagonist's journey, and how this in turn shapes how I write the hero's pathway in the creative piece. The genre in which the protagonist's journey is charted and represented is dystopian young adult fiction; hence my creative piece, The Water Catchment, is a novel manuscript for a dystopian young adult fantasy. It is a speculative novel set in a possible future and poses (and answers) the question: What might happen if water becomes the most powerful commodity on earth? There are two communities, called 'worlds' to create a barrier and difference where physical ones are not in evidence. A battle ensues over unfair conditions and access to water. In the end the protagonist, Caitlyn, takes over leadership heralding a new era of co-operation and water management between the two worlds. The exegesis examines how the hero's pathway, the journey towards knowledge and resolution, is best explored in young adult literature through dystopian narratives. I explore how the dystopian worlds of Ursula Le Guin's first and last books of The Earthsea Quartet are foundational, and lay this examination over an analysis of both the hero's pathway within and the social contexts outside of the novels. Dystopian narratives constitute a liberating space for the adolescent protagonist between the reliance on adults in childhood and the world of adults. In young adult literature such narratives provide fertile ground to explore those aspects informing an adolescent's future.