Risk management for mathematical optimization under uncertainty

We present a general multistage stochastic mixed 0-1 problem where the uncertainty appears everywhere in the objective function, constraints matrix and right-hand-side. The uncertainty is represented by a scenario tree that can be a symmetric or a nonsymmetric one. The stochastic model is converted in a mixed 0-1 Deterministic Equivalent Model in compact representation. Due to the difficulty of the problem, the solution offered by the stochastic model has been traditionally obtained by optimizing the objective function expected value (i.e., mean) over the scenarios, usually, along a time horizon. This approach (so named risk neutral) has the inconvenience of providing a solution that ignores the variance of the objective value of the scenarios and, so, the occurrence of scenarios with an objective value below the expected one. Alternatively, we present several approaches for risk averse management, namely, a scenario immunization strategy, the optimization of the well known Value-at-Risk (VaR) and several variants of the Conditional Value-at-Risk strategies, the optimization of the expected mean minus the weighted probability of having a "bad" scenario to occur for the given solution provided by the model, the optimization of the objective function expected value subject to stochastic dominance constraints (SDC) for a set of profiles given by the pairs of threshold objective values and either bounds on the probability of not reaching the thresholds or the expected shortfall over them, and the optimization of a mixture of the VaR and SDC strategies.

Estudio de la capacidad inmunoprofiláctica de proteínas recombinantes de Leishmania infantum en el modelo murino

En esta Tesis Doctoral, cuatro proteínas que están sobre-expresadas en las fases infectivas del ciclo celular de L. infantum (STPKA, STPK, PP2B and PABP3) fueron purificadas para inmunizar ratones BALB/c, con el interés de estudiar su posible capacidad protectora contra la VL. Tres de ellas indujeron una fuerte respuesta humoral en los ratones, rLiSTPKA, rLiSTPK y rLiPABP3, a diferencia de la proteína rLiPP2B. Además, la rLiPABP3 fue la única que indujo una disminución significativa de la carga parasitara tanto en bazo como en hígado 2 meses después de la infección experimental con el parásito. Con el objetivo de determinar los efectos que la inmunización con rLiPABP3 tenía sobre el sistema inmune murino, se determinó la expresión génica de 106 genes relacionados con el sistema inmune en ratones control, inmunizados e infectados. Los niveles de expresión génica fueron comparados con los obtenidos para los grupos control. Los resultados mostraron que durante todo el experimento la proteína rLiPABP3 promueve la inhibición de la respuesta inmune inflamatoria en el bazo de los ratones infectados. Además, no se observa una respuesta adaptiva claramente polarizada hacia un tipo concreto. Un mes después de la infeccion, en los animales previamente inmunizados se observa la sobre-expresion de Il2rb lo que nos hace pensar que rLiPABP3 podría estimular la presencia de linfocitos T memoria. En fases más avanzadas de la infección, a pesar de que no observamos una clara diferenciación de una población concreta de linfocitos T efectores, sí observamos la infra-expresión del gen codificante del TNF-alfa, lo que unido a la sobre-expresión del gen Cxcr4 y la ausencia de cambios de la expresión del gen Ccr7 nos hace pensar que la inmunización no sólo mantiene la micro-arquitectura del bazo, sino que también promueve la correcta migración de las DCs desde la MZ hasta el PALS.

Original Research Article Humoral and cellular immune responses to modified hepatitis B plasmid DNA vaccine in mice

Purpose: To evaluate the immunogenicity and types of immune response of a quality-controlled modified recombinant hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) plasmid encoding HBsAg in mice. Methods: The characterized plasmid DNA was used in the immunization of Balb/c mice. Three groups of mice were intramuscularly injected with three different concentrations (50, 25 and 10 μg/100 μL) of the modified plasmid. Humoral immune response was monitored by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), while cellular immune response was investigated by analysis of spleen cytokine profile (TNFα, IFN γ and IL2) as well as CD69 expression level in CD4 and CD8 positive cells. Results: In general, the activated CD4 cells showing intracellular cytokines were higher than CD8 positive population of cells (p < 0.05). These findings indicate that the vaccine induced both a humoral and cellular immunity. Cytokine profile also showed high levels of TNFα, IFN γ and IL2 and CD69 expression in the group of animals immunized at a dose of 10 μg when compared to control group (p < 0.05). Conclusion: A 10 μg dose intramuscular injection of the modified DNA-based vaccine encoding HBsAg in mice induces both high humoral and cellular immune responses.

Nanostructured lipid carriers for nose-to-brain delivery in neurodegenerative diseases therapy

191 p.

Child Health Care in Ireland

The Irish health care system is based on a complex and costly mix of private, statutory, and voluntary provisions. The majority of health care expenditure comes from the state, with a significant proportion of acute hospital care funded from private insurance, but there are relatively high out-of-pocket costs for most service users. There is free access to acute hospital care, but not for primary care, for all children. About 40% of the population have free access to primary care. Universal preventive public health services, including vaccination and immunization, newborn blood spot screening, and universal neonatal hearing screening are free. Major health challenges include poverty, obesity, drug and alcohol use, and mental health. The health care system has been dominated for the last 5 years by the impact of the current recession, which has led to very sharp cuts in health care expenditure. It is unclear if the necessary substantial reform of the system will happen. Government policy calls for a move toward a patient-centered, primary care-led system, but without very substantial transfers of resources and investment in Information and Communication Technology, this is unlikely to occur. The paper has been published as part of an overall report of Child Health in Europe: Diversity of Child Health Care in Europe: A Study of the European Paediatric Association/Union of National European Paediatric Societies and Associations http://www.jpeds.com/issue/S0022-3476(16)X0010-8 . (J Pediatr 2016;177S:S87-106).  

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Étude de cas / Case study

Complications of pneumococcal bacteremia after 13-valent conjugate vaccine withdrawal

In the Region of Madrid, universal immunization with the 13-serotypes pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) started in May 2010. In July 2012, public funding ceased. Vaccination coverage decreased from >95% to 82% in 2013 and to 67% in 2014. Our aim was to investigate the impact of PCV13 withdrawal from Madrid Region's universal immunization program on the incidence of complicated pneumococcal bacteremia. We performed a multi-center retrospective cohort study, from 2009 to 2014. Participants were children aged <14 years with Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteremia. Complications were defined as any condition requiring intensive care or surgery. Sequelae were conditions lasting ≥90 days. A total of 168 patients were recruited. One-fourth of both immunized and non-immunized patients had complications. Global complications increased after PCV13 withdrawal. A total of 28% of PCV13 serotypes presented complications. Complications due to PCV13 serotypes did not increase after July 2012. No-PCV13 serotypes increased progressively from 2009 on, and 23% presented complications. A significant risk of complications was found for patients with meningitis, empyema, C-reactive protein >100 mg/L, and serotype 1. A multivariate analysis indicated that complications were associated with meningitis and hospital admission after July 2012. Sequelae were significantly associated with children <2 years of age, meningitis and no-PCV13 serotypes. The incidence of complications due to PCV13 serotypes did not increase two years after PCV13 withdrawal. Nevertheless, all-serotypes complications increased. The likely cause was that no-PCV13 serotypes (associated with meningitis) are on the rise.

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Étude de cas / Case study

The impact and control of malignant catarrhal fever in Tanzania

Malignant Catarrhal Fever (MCF), an often-lethal infectious disease, presents as a variable complex of lesions in susceptible ungulate species. The disease is caused by a -herpesvirus following transmission from an inapparent carrier host. Two major epidemiological forms exist: wildebeest-associated MCF (WA-MCF), in which the virus is transmitted to susceptible species by wildebeest calves less than approximately four months of age, and sheepassociated MCF (SA-MCF) in which the virus is spread by sheep (primarily adolescents). Due to the lack of an in-vitro propagation system for the causative agent of the more economically significant SA-MCF, and with the expectation that cross-protective immunity may be provided, vaccine development has focused on the more easily propagated alcelaphine herpesvirus-1 (AlHV-1) that causes WA-MCF. In 2008 a direct viral challenge trial showed that a novel vaccine, employing an attenuated AlHV-1 (atAlHV-1) `C5000 virus strain, protected British Friesian-Holstein (FH) cattle against an intranasal challenge with virulent AlHV-1 `C5000 virus. For cattle keeping people living near wildebeest calving areas in sub-Saharan Africa an effective vaccine would have value as it would release them from the costly annual disease avoidance strategy of having to move their herds away from the oncoming wildebeest. On the other hand, an effective vaccine will release herd owners from the need to avoid MCF, allowing them to graze their cattle alongside wildebeest on the highly nutritious pastures of the calving areas. As such conservationists have raised concerns that the development of a vaccine might lead to detrimental grazing competition. The principle objective of this study was to test the novel vaccine on Tanzanian shorthorn zebu cross cattle (SZC).We did this firstly using a natural challenge field trial (Chapter Two) which demonstrated that immunisation with the atAlHV-1 vaccine was well tolerated and induced an oro-nasopharyngeal AlHV-1-specific and -neutralising antibody response. This resulted in an immunity in SZC cattle that was partially protective and reduced naturally transmitted infection by 56%. We also demonstrated that non-fatal infections occurred with a much higher frequency than previously thought. Because the calculated efficacy of the vaccine was less than that seen in British FH cattle we wanted to determine whether host factors, particular to SZC cattle, had impacted the outcomes of the field trial. To do this we repeated the 2008 direct viral challenge trial using SZC cattle (Chapter Four). During this trial we also investigated whether the recombinant bacterial flagellin monomer (FliC), when used as an adjuvant, might improve the vaccine’s efficacy. The findings from this trial indicated that direct challenge with pathogenic AlHV-1 is effective at inducing MCF in SZC cattle and that FliC is not an appropriate adjuvant for this vaccine. Furthermore, with less control group cattle dying of MCF than expected we speculate that SZC cattle may have a degree of resistance to MCF that affords them protection from infection and developing fatal disease. In Chapter Three we investigated aspects of the epidemiology of MCF, specifically whether wildebeest placenta, long implicated by Maasai cattle owners as a source of MCF, might play a role in viral transmission. Additionally, through comparative sequence analysis, at two specific genes (A9.5 and ORF50) of wild-type and atAlHV-1, we investigated whether the `C5000 strain, the source of which was taken from Africa more than 40 years ago, was appropriate for vaccine development. The detection of AlHV-1 virus in approximately 50% of placentae indicated that infection can occur in-utero and that this tissue might play a role in disease transmission. And, despite describing three new alleles of the A9.5 gene (supporting previous evidence that this gene is polymorphic and encodes a secretory protein with interleukin-4 as the major homologue), the observation that the most frequently detected haplotypes, in both wild-type and attenuated AlHV-1, were identical suggests that AlHV-1 has a slow molecular clock and that the attenuated strain was appropriate for vaccine development. In Chapter Five we present the first quantitative assessment of the annual MCF avoidance costs that Maasai pastoralists incur. In particular we estimated that as a result of MCF avoidance 64% of the total daily milk yield during the MCF season was not available to be used by the 81% of the family unit remaining at the permanent boma. This represents an upper-bound loss of approximately 8% of a household0s annual income. Despite these considerable losses we concluded that, given an incidence of fatal MCF in cattle living in wildebeest calving areas of 5% to 10%, if herd owners were to stop trying to avoid MCF by allowing their cattle to graze alongside wildebeest, any gains made through increased availability of milk, improved body condition and reduced energy demands would be offset by an increase in MCF-incidence. With the development of an effective vaccine, however, this alternative strategy might become optimal. The overall conclusion we draw therefore is that, despite the substantial costs incurred each year avoiding MCF, the partial protection afforded by the novel vaccine strategy is not sufficient to warrant a wholesale change in disease avoidance strategy. Nonetheless, even the partial protection provided by this vaccine could be of value to protect animals that cannot be moved, for example where some of the herd remain at the boma to provide milk or where land-use changes make traditional disease avoidance difficult. Furthermore, the vaccine may offer a feasible solution to some of the current land-use challenges and conflicts, providing a degree of protection to valuable livestock where avoidance strategies are not possible, but with less risk of precipitating the potentially damaging environmental consequences, such as overgrazing of highly nutritious seasonal pastures, that might result if herd owners decide they no longer need to avoid wildebeest.