Market Index Biases and Minimum Risk Indices

Markets, in the real world, are not efficient zero-sum games where hypotheses of the CAPM are fulfilled. Then, it is easy to conclude the market portfolio is not located on Markowitz"s efficient frontier, and passive investments (and indexing) are not optimal but biased. In this paper, we define and analyze biases suffered by passive investors: the sample, construction, efficiency and active biases and tracking error are presented. We propose Minimum Risk Indices (MRI) as an alternative to deal with to market index biases, and to provide investors with portfolios closer to the efficient frontier, that is, more optimal investment possibilities. MRI (using a Parametric Value-at-Risk Minimization approach) are calculated for three stock markets achieving interesting results. Our indices are less risky and more profitable than current Market Indices in the Argentinean and Spanish markets, facing that way the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Two innovations must be outlined: an error dimension has been included in the backtesting and the Sharpe"s Ratio has been used to select the"best" MRI

Decision making techniques with similarity measures and OWA operators

We analyse the use of the ordered weighted average (OWA) in decision-making giving special attention to business and economic decision-making problems. We present several aggregation techniques that are very useful for decision-making such as the Hamming distance, the adequacy coefficient and the index of maximum and minimum level. We suggest a new approach by using immediate weights, that is, by using the weighted average and the OWA operator in the same formulation. We further generalize them by using generalized and quasi-arithmetic means. We also analyse the applicability of the OWA operator in business and economics and we see that we can use it instead of the weighted average. We end the paper with an application in a business multi-person decision-making problem regarding production management

Conceptualising the economics of plant health protection against invasive pests

Selostus: Tulokastuholaiset ja kasvinsuojelu : taloudellinen näkökulma

A decrease of plasma macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentration is associated with lower numbers of circulating lymphocytes in experimental Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

Macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) has recently been implicated in the pathogenesis of malarial anaemia. However, field studies have reported contradictory results on circulating MIF concentrations in patients with clinically overt Plasmodium falciparum malaria. We determined plasma MIF levels over time in 10 healthy volunteers during experimental P. falciparum infection. Under fully controlled conditions, MIF levels decreased significantly during early blood-stage infection and reached a nadir at day 8 post-infection. A decrease in the number of circulating lymphocytes, which are an important source of MIF production, paralleled the decrease in MIF levels. Monocyte/macrophage counts remained unchanged. At MIF nadir, the anti-inflammatory cytokine interleukin (IL)-10, which is an inhibitor of T-cell MIF production, was detectable in only 2 of 10 volunteers. Plasma concentrations of the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-8 and IL-1beta were only marginally elevated. We conclude that circulating MIF levels decrease early in blood-stage malaria as a result of the decline in circulating lymphocytes.

Development of a Coldwater Benthic Index in Iowa

Benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages do not appear to differ as markedly between coldwater and warmwater streams (in Iowa, at least) as do fish assemblages, and to our knowledge no parallel evaluation of benthic macroinvertebrate communities in coldwater streams has been conducted. What is known is that many taxa are exclusively collected in coldwater environments and are considered “rare” in Iowa from a biogeographical perspective. While the warmwater BMIBI has generally proven to work well as a diagnostic tool for Iowa’s streams, the streams of Iowa’s Paleozoic Plateau tend to group in the “excellent” to “good” qualitative rating categories. The streams of this area tend to be more ecologically intact than other areas of the state; however, there are some artifacts of the current warmwater BMIBI (most specifically metric scoring related to watershed size) that skew IBI values higher. Our objective is to develop a Coldwater Benthic Index (CBI) which will provide a more accurate assessment of streams classified, or potentially classifiable, as coldwater.

Le Koran (Nouvelle édition entièrement revue et corrigée ; augmentée de notes, commentaires et d'un index) / traduction nouvelle faite sur le texte arabe, par M. Kasimirski,...

[Coran (français). 1852]

Body mass index and risk of head and neck cancer in a pooled analysis of case-control studies in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Head and neck cancer (HNC) risk is elevated among lean people and reduced among overweight or obese people in some studies; however, it is unknown whether these associations differ for certain subgroups or are influenced by residual confounding from the effects of alcohol and tobacco use or by other sources of biases. METHODS: We pooled data from 17 case-control studies including 12 716 cases and the 17 438 controls. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for associations between body mass index (BMI) at different ages and HNC risk, adjusted for age, sex, centre, race, education, tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption. RESULTS: Adjusted ORs (95% CIs) were elevated for people with BMI at reference (date of diagnosis for cases and date of selection for controls) 25.0-30.0 kg/m(2) (0.52, 0.44-0.60) and BMI >/=30 kg/m(2) (0.43, 0.33-0.57), compared with BMI >18.5-25.0 kg/m(2). These associations did not differ by age, sex, tumour site or control source. Although the increased risk among people with BMI 25 kg/m(2) was present only in smokers and drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: In our large pooled analysis, leanness was associated with increased HNC risk regardless of smoking and drinking status, although reverse causality cannot be excluded. The reduced risk among overweight or obese people may indicate body size is a modifier of the risk associated with smoking and drinking. Further clarification may be provided by analyses of prospective cohort and mechanistic studies.

Prepregnancy body mass index and resting metabolic rate during pregnancy.

AIM: The resting metabolic rate (RMR) varies among pregnant women. The factors responsible for this variability are unknown. This study aimed to assess the influence of the prepregnancy body mass index (BMI) on the RMR during late pregnancy. METHODS: RMR, height, weight, and total (TEE) and activity (AEE) energy expenditures were measured in 46 healthy women aged 31 ± 5 years (mean ± SD) with low (<19.8), normal (19.8-26.0), and high (>26.0) prepregnancy BMI at 38.2 ± 1.5 weeks of gestation (t(gest)) and 40 ± 7 weeks postpartum (t(post)) (n = 27). RESULTS: The mean t(gest) RMR for the low-, normal-, and high-BMI groups was 1,373, 1,807, and 2,191 kcal/day, respectively (p = 0.001). The overall mean t(gest) RMR was 316 ± 183 kcal/day (21%), higher than the overall mean t(post) value and this difference was correlated with gestational weight gain (r = 0.78, p < 0.001). The scaled metabolic rate by allometry (RMR/kilograms⁰·⁷³) was similar in the low-, normal-, and high-BMI groups, respectively (p = 0.45). Changes in t(gest) TEE closely paralleled changes in t(gest) RMR (r = 0.84, p < 0.001). AEE was similar among the BMI groups. CONCLUSION: The RMR is significantly increased in the third trimester of pregnancy. The absolute gestational RMR is higher in women with high prepregnancy BMI due to increased body weight. The scaled metabolic rate (RMR/kilograms⁰·⁷³) is similar among the BMI groups of pregnant women.

Association analyses of 249,796 individuals reveal 18 new loci associated with body mass index.

Obesity is globally prevalent and highly heritable, but its underlying genetic factors remain largely elusive. To identify genetic loci for obesity susceptibility, we examined associations between body mass index and ∼ 2.8 million SNPs in up to 123,865 individuals with targeted follow up of 42 SNPs in up to 125,931 additional individuals. We confirmed 14 known obesity susceptibility loci and identified 18 new loci associated with body mass index (P < 5 × 10⁻⁸), one of which includes a copy number variant near GPRC5B. Some loci (at MC4R, POMC, SH2B1 and BDNF) map near key hypothalamic regulators of energy balance, and one of these loci is near GIPR, an incretin receptor. Furthermore, genes in other newly associated loci may provide new insights into human body weight regulation.

Genetic studies of body mass index yield new insights for obesity biology

Obesity is heritable and predisposes to many diseases. To understand the genetic basis of obesity better, here we conduct a genome-wide association study and Metabochip meta-analysis of body mass index (BMI), a measure commonly used to define obesity and assess adiposity, in up to 339,224 individuals. This analysis identifies 97 BMI-associated loci (P < 5 × 10(-8)), 56 of which are novel. Five loci demonstrate clear evidence of several independent association signals, and many loci have significant effects on other metabolic phenotypes. The 97 loci account for ∼2.7% of BMI variation, and genome-wide estimates suggest that common variation accounts for >20% of BMI variation. Pathway analyses provide strong support for a role of the central nervous system in obesity susceptibility and implicate new genes and pathways, including those related to synaptic function, glutamate signalling, insulin secretion/action, energy metabolism, lipid biology and adipogenesis.

The interrater reliability of the pulmonary embolism severity index

RésuméLe PESI (Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index) est un score clinique pronostique s'appliquant à des patients présentant un diagnostic d'embolie pulmonaire. Notre objectif était de démontrer la reproductibilité de ce score entre différents médecins chez des patients présentant une embolie pulmonaire. Nous avons donc identifié, de façon prospective, des patients présentant une embolie pulmonaire nouvellement diagnostiquée aux urgences d'un Hôpital Universitaire (CHUV, Lausanne). Pour tous ces patients, le médecin assistant en charge ainsi que le chef de clinique superviseur ont individuellement collecté les différentes variables permettant d'établir le score selon le PESI. Ils ont, ensuite, de façon indépendante, classifié les patients dans 5 classes de risque (1-V) ainsi qu'en deux groupes à bas risque versus haut risque, respectivement les classes i-ll et les classes III à V.Nous avons examiné la reproductibilité des données entre deux groupes de médecins (médecins assistants vs chefs de clinique), pour chacune des variables constituant le PESI, pour le score total en points, pour l'attribution aux 5 classes de risque ainsi que pour la classification en deux groupes à haut risque versus bas risque. Cette évaluation de la reproductibilité des résultats obtenus par les différents médecins s'est basée sur le calcul du Kappa (K) ainsi sur les Coefficients de Corrélation Intra-classe (ICC).Parmi les 48 patients présentant une Embolie Pulmonaire inclus dans notre étude, les coefficients de reproductibilité entre médecins assistants et chefs de clinique étaient supérieurs à 0.60 pour 10 des 11 variables du PESI. La reproductibilité entre les 2 groupes de médecins, pour le total des points, pour l'attribution à une classe de risque I à V, ainsi que pour la classification en bas versus haut risque était presque parfaite.Nos résultats démontrent la haute reproductibilité du PESI, et appuient donc l'intérêt de son utilisation pour la stratification du risque chez des patients présentant une embolie pulmonaire.

6.2

Airborne particles can come from a variety of sources and contain variable chemical constituents. Some particles are formed by natural processes, such as volcanoes, erosion, sea spray, and forest fires, while other are formed by anthropogenic processes, such as industrial- and motor vehicle-related combustion, road-related wear, and mining. In general, larger particles (those greater than 2.5 μm) are formed by mechanical processes, while those less than 2.5 μm are formed by combustion processes. The chemical composition of particles is highly influenced by the source: for combustion-related particles, factors such as temperature of combustion, fuel type, and presence of oxygen or other gases can also have a large impact on PM composition. These differences can often be observed at a regional level, such as the greater sulphate-composition of PM in regions that burn coal for electricity production (which contains sulphur) versus regions that do not. Most countries maintain air monitoring networks, and studies based on the resulting data are the most common basis for epidemiology studies on the health effects of PM. Data from these monitoring stations can be used to evaluate the relationship between community-level exposure to ambient particles and health outcomes (i.e., morbidity or mortality from various causes). Respiratory and cardiovascular outcomes are the most commonly assessed, although studies have also considered other related specific outcomes such as diabetes and congenital heart disease. The data on particle characteristics is usually not very detailed and most often includes some combination of PM2.5, PM10, sulphate, and NO2. Other descriptors that are less commonly found include particle number (ultrafine particles), metal components of PM, local traffic intensity, and EC/OC. Measures of association are usually reported per 10 μg/m3 or interquartile range increase in pollutant concentration. As the exposure data are taken from regional monitoring stations, the measurements are not representative of an individual's exposure. Particle size is an important descriptor for understanding where in the human respiratory system the particles will deposit: as a general rule, smaller particles penetrate to deeper regions of the lungs. Initial studies on the health effects of particulate matter focused on mass of the particles, including either all particles (often termed total suspended particulate or TSP) or PM10 (all particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm). More recently, studies have considered both PM10 and PM2.5, with the latter corresponding more directly to combustion-related processes. UFPs are a dominant source of particles in terms of PNC, yet are negligible in terms of mass. Very few epidemiology studies have measured the effect of UFPs on health; however, the numbers of studies on this topic are increasing. In addition to size, chemical composition is of importance when understanding the toxicity of particles. Some studies consider the composition of particles in addition to mass; however this is not common, in part due the cost and labour involved in such analyses.

Development of an activity index for adult eosinophilic esophagitis: international experts propose dysphagia, withish exudates on endoscopy and peripheral eosinophilia as items with closest association to EoE activity

Background and Aims: Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE) is reported with increasing frequency over the last two decades. However, it is still unknown whether this reflects a true increase in incidence or just an increased awareness by gastroenterologists. Therefore, we evaluated the incidence and cumulative prevalence of EoE in Olten county over the last 20 years. Methods: Olten county is an area of approximately 91,000 inhabitants without pronounced demographic changes in the last two decades. EoE evaluation is based upon two gastroenterology centers and one pathology center. No public programs for increased EoE awareness were implemented in this region. All EoE patients diagnosed from 1989 to 2009 were entered prospectively into the Olten county database. Results: Fourty-six patients (76% males, mean age 41±16 yrs) were diagnosed with EoE from 1989 to 2009. Ninety-four percent presented with dysphagia. In 70% of the patients concomitant allergies were found. The number of upper endoscopies per year was stable during the entire observation period. An average annual incidence rate of 2/100,000 was found (range 0-8) with a marked increase in the period from 2001 to 2009. A current cumulative EoE prevalence of 43/100,000 inhabitants was calculated. The mean diagnostic delay (time from first symptoms to diagnosis) was 4.3 years from 1989 to 1998 and 4.8 years from 1999 to 2009. Conclusions: Over the last 20 years, a significant increase in EoE incidence was found in a stable indicator region of Switzerland. The constant rate of upper endoscopies, the constant diagnostic delay, as well as the lack of EoE awareness programs in Olten county indicate a true increase in EoE incidence.