Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes.

Antarctic ocean and sea ice response to ozone depletion: a two timescale problem

The response of the Southern Ocean to a repeating seasonal cycle of ozone loss is studied in two coupled climate models and found to comprise both fast and slow processes. The fast response is similar to the inter-annual signature of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on Sea Surface Temperature (SST), on to which the ozone-hole forcing projects in the summer. It comprises enhanced northward Ekman drift inducing negative summertime SST anomalies around Antarctica, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year-round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift, however, results in upwelling of warm waters from below the mixed layer in the region of seasonal sea ice. With sustained bursts of westerly winds induced by ozone-hole depletion, this warming from below eventually dominates over the cooling from anomalous Ekman drift. The resulting slow-timescale response (years to decades) leads to warming of SSTs around Antarctica and ultimately a reduction in sea-ice cover year-round. This two-timescale behavior - rapid cooling followed by slow but persistent warming - is found in the two coupled models analysed, one with an idealized geometry, the other a complex global climate model with realistic geometry. Processes that control the timescale of the transition from cooling to warming, and their uncertainties are described. Finally we discuss the implications of our results for rationalizing previous studies of the effect of the ozone-hole on SST and sea-ice extent. %Interannual variability in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and sea ice covary such that an increase and southward shift in the surface westerlies (a positive phase of the SAM) coincides with a cooling of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) around 70-50$^\circ$S and an expansion of the sea ice cover, as seen in observations and models alike. Yet, in modeling studies, the Southern Ocean warms and sea ice extent decreases in response to sustained, multi-decadal positive SAM-like wind anomalies driven by 20th century ozone depletion. Why does the Southern Ocean appear to have disparate responses to SAM-like variability on interannual and multidecadal timescales? Here it is demonstrated that the response of the Southern Ocean to ozone depletion has a fast and a slow response. The fast response is similar to the interannual variability signature of the SAM. It is dominated by an enhanced northward Ekman drift, which transports heat northward and causes negative SST anomalies in summertime, earlier sea ice freeze-up the following winter, and northward expansion of the sea ice edge year round. The enhanced northward Ekman drift causes a region of Ekman divergence around 70-50$^\circ$S, which results in upwelling of warmer waters from below the mixed layer. With sustained westerly wind enhancement in that latitudinal band, the warming due to the anomalous upwelling of warm waters eventually dominates over the cooling from the anomalous Ekman drift. Hence, the slow response ultimately results in a positive SST anomaly and a reduction in the sea ice cover year round. We demonstrate this behavior in two models: one with an idealized geometry and another, more detailed, global climate model. However, the models disagree on the timescale of transition from the fast (cooling) to the slow (warming) response. Processes that controls this transition and their uncertainties are discussed.

Study of picosecond processes of an intercalated dipyridophenazine Cr(iii) complex bound to defined sequence DNAs using transient absorption and time-resolved infrared methods

Picosecond transient absorption (TA) and time-resolved infrared (TRIR) measurements of rac-[Cr(phen)2(dppz)]3+ (1) intercalated into double-stranded guanine-containing DNA reveal that the excited state is very rapidly quenched. As no evidence was found for the transient electron transfer products, it is proposed that the back electron transfer reaction must be even faster (<3 ps).

Civilian casualties and nuclear weapons: the application of the rule of distinction

This chapter considers the possible use in armed conflict of low-yield (also known as tactical) nuclear weapons. The Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons Advisory Opinion maintained that it is a cardinal principle that a State must never make civilians an object of attack and must consequently never use weapons that are incapable of distinguishing between civilian and military targets. As international humanitarian law applies equally to any use of nuclear weapons, it is argued that there is no use of nuclear weapons that could spare civilian casualties particularly if you view the long-term health and environmental effects of the use of such weaponry.

Association between sucrose intake and risk of overweight and obesity in a prospective sub-cohort of EPIC-Norfolk

Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate associations between sugar intake and overweight using dietary biomarkers in the Norfolk cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk). Design: Prospective cohort study Setting: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) in the UK, recruitment between 1993 and 1997. Subjects: 1734 participants (39 – 77 years). Sucrose intake was assessed using 7-day diaries. Baseline spot urine samples were analysed for sucrose by GC-MS. Sucrose concentration adjusted by specific gravity was used as biomarker for intake. Regression analyses were used to investigate associations between sucrose intake and risk of BMI > 25 kg/m2 after three years of follow-up. Results: After three years of follow-up, mean BMI was 26.8 kg/m2. Self-reported sucrose intake was significantly positively associated with biomarker. Associations between biomarker and BMI were positive (β=0.25; 95% CI: 0.08; 0.43), while they were inverse when using self-reported dietary data (β=-1.40; 95% CI: -1.81; -0.99). Age- and sex-adjusted OR for BMI > 25 kg/m2 in participants in the fifth vs. first quintile was 1.54 (95% CI: 1.12; 2.12; pTrend=0.003,) when using biomarker and 0.56 (95% CI: 0.40; 0.77; pTrend<0.001) with self-reported dietary data. Conclusions: Our results suggest that sucrose measured by objective biomarker but not self-reported sucrose intake is positively associated with body mass index. Future studies should consider use of objective biomarkers of sucrose intake.

A comparison of methods for treatment selection in seamless phase II/III clinical trials incorporating information on short-term endpoints

In an adaptive seamless phase II/III clinical trial interim analysis, data are used for treatment selection, enabling resources to be focused on comparison of more effective treatment(s) with a control. In this paper, we compare two methods recently proposed to enable use of short-term endpoint data for decision-making at the interim analysis. The comparison focuses on the power and the probability of correctly identifying the most promising treatment. We show that the choice of method depends on how well short-term data predict the best treatment, which may be measured by the correlation between treatment effects on short- and long-term endpoints.

Non-replication of the association between 5HTTLPR and response to psychological therapy for child anxiety disorders

Background We previously reported an association between 5HTTLPR genotype and outcome following cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) in child anxiety (Cohort 1). Children homozygous for the low-expression short-allele showed more positive outcomes. Other similar studies have produced mixed results, with most reporting no association between genotype and CBT outcome. Aims To replicate the association between 5HTTLPR and CBT outcome in child anxiety from the Genes for Treatment study (GxT Cohort 2, n = 829). Method Logistic and linear mixed effects models were used to examine the relationship between 5HTTLPR and CBT outcomes. Mega-analyses using both cohorts were performed. Results There was no significant effect of 5HTTLPR on CBT outcomes in Cohort 2. Mega-analyses identified a significant association between 5HTTLPR and remission from all anxiety disorders at follow-up (odds ratio 0.45, P = 0.014), but not primary anxiety disorder outcomes. Conclusions The association between 5HTTLPR genotype and CBT outcome did not replicate. Short-allele homozygotes showed more positive treatment outcomes, but with small, non-significant effects. Future studies would benefit from utilising whole genome approaches and large, homogenous samples.

The lethal and sub-lethal consequences of entomopathogenic nematode infestation and exposure for adult pine weevils, Hylobius abietis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)

Entomopathogenic nematodes (EPN) frequently kill their host within 1–2 days, and interest in EPN focuses mainly on their lethality. However, insects may take longer to die, or may fail to die despite being infected, but little is known about the effects of EPN infection on insects, other than death. Here we investigate both lethal and sub-lethal effects of infection by two EPN species, Steinernema carpocapsae and Heterorhabditis downesi, on adults of the large pine weevil, Hylobius abietis. Following 12 h nematode–weevil contact in peat, S. carpocapsae killed a significantly higher proportion of weevils (87–93%) than H. downesi (43–57%) at all concentrations tested. Less than 10% of weevils were dead within 2 days, and weevils continued to die for up to 10 days after exposure (LT50 of 3 days or more). In a separate experiment, live weevils dissected 6 days after a 24 h exposure to nematodes on filter paper harbored encapsulated and dead nematodes, showing that weevils could defend themselves against infection. Some live weevils also harbored live nematodes 6 days after they had been removed from the nematode infested medium. Feeding by weevils was not affected by infection with, or exposure to, either species of EPN. We discuss these results in relation to the use of EPN in biological control against H. abietis.

Organic soils promote the efficacy of entomopathogenic nematodes, with different foraging strategies, in the control of a major forest pest: a meta-analysis of field trial data

The large pine weevil, Hylobius abietis, is a serious pest of reforestation in northern Europe. However, weevils developing in stumps of felled trees can be killed by entomopathogenic nematodes applied to soil around the stumps and this method of control has been used at an operational level in the UK and Ireland. We investigated the factors affecting the efficacy of entomopathogenic nematodes in the control of the large pine weevil spanning 10 years of field experiments, by means of a meta-analysis of published studies and previously unpublished data. We investigated two species with different foraging strategies, the ‘ambusher’ Steinernema carpocapsae, the species most often used at an operational level, and the ‘cruiser’ Heterorhabditis downesi. Efficacy was measured both by percentage reduction in numbers of adults emerging relative to untreated controls and by percentage parasitism of developing weevils in the stump. Both measures were significantly higher with H. downesi compared to S. carpocapsae. General linear models were constructed for each nematode species separately, using substrate type (peat versus mineral soil) and tree species (pine versus spruce) as fixed factors, weevil abundance (from the mean of untreated stumps) as a covariate and percentage reduction or percentage parasitism as the response variable. For both nematode species, the most significant and parsimonious models showed that substrate type was consistently, but not always, the most significant variable, whether replicates were at a site or stump level, and that peaty soils significantly promote the efficacy of both species. Efficacy, in terms of percentage parasitism, was not density dependent.

Memo test: standardisation of computerised assessment of auditory verbal short-term memory

Short-term memory (STM) impairments are prevalent in adults with acquired brain injuries. While there are several published tests to assess these impairments, the majority require speech production, e.g. digit span (Wechsler, 1987). This feature may make them unsuitable for people with aphasia and motor speech disorders because of word finding difficulties and speech demands respectively. If patients perceive the speech demands of the test to be high, the may not engage with testing. Furthermore, existing STM tests are mainly ‘pen-and-paper’ tests, which can jeopardise accuracy. To address these shortcomings, we designed and standardised a novel computerised test that does not require speech output and because of the computerised delivery it would enable clinicians identify STM impairments with greater precision than current tests. The matching listening span tasks, similar to the non-normed PALPA 13 (Kay, Lesser & Coltheart, 1992) is used to test short-term memory for serial order of spoken items. Sequences of digits are presented in pairs. The person hears the first sequence, followed by the second sequence and s/he decides whether the two sequences are the same or different. In the computerised test, the sequences are presented in live voice recordings on a portable computer through a software application (Molero Martin, Laird, Hwang & Salis 2013). We collected normative data from healthy older adults (N=22-24) using digits, real words (one- and two-syllables) and non-words (one- and two- syllables). Their performance was scored following two systems. The Highest Span system was the highest span length (e.g. 2-8) at which a participant correctly responded to over 7 out of 10 trials at the highest sequence length. Test re-test reliability was also tested in a subgroup of participants. The test will be available as free of charge for clinicians and researchers to use.

Replacement of saturated with unsaturated fats had no impact on vascular function but beneficial effects on lipid biomarkers, E-selectin and blood pressure: results from the randomized, controlled Dietary Intervention and VAScular function (DIVAS) study

Background: Public health strategies to lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk involve reducing dietary saturated fatty acid (SFA) intake to ≤10% of total energy (%TE). However, the optimal type of replacement fat is unclear. Objective: We investigated the substitution of 9.5-9.6%TE dietary SFA with either monounsaturated (MUFA) or n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) on vascular function and other CVD risk factors. Design: Using a randomized, controlled, single-blind, parallel group dietary intervention, 195 men and women aged 21-60 y with moderate CVD risk (≥50% above the population mean) from the United Kingdom followed one of three 16-wk isoenergetic diets (%TE target compositions, total fat:SFA:MUFA:n-6 PUFA): SFA-rich (36:17:11:4, n = 65), MUFA-rich (36:9:19:4, n = 64) or n-6 PUFA-rich (36:9:13:10, n = 66). The primary outcome measure was flow-mediated dilatation (%FMD); secondary outcome measures included fasting serum lipids, microvascular reactivity, arterial stiffness, ambulatory blood pressure, and markers of insulin resistance, inflammation and endothelial activation. Results: Replacing SFA with MUFA or n-6 PUFA did not significantly impact on %FMD (primary endpoint) or other measures of vascular reactivity. Of the secondary outcome measures, substitution of SFA with MUFA attenuated the increase in night systolic blood pressure (-4.9 mm Hg, P = 0.019) and reduced E-selectin (-7.8%, P = 0.012). Replacement with MUFA or n-6 PUFA lowered fasting serum total cholesterol (TC; -8.4% and -9.2%, respectively), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (-11.3% and -13.6%) and TC to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (-5.6% and -8.5%) (P ≤ 0.001). These changes in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol equate to an estimated 17-20% reduction in CVD mortality. Conclusions: Substitution of 9.5-9.6%TE dietary SFA with either MUFA or n-6 PUFA did not impact significantly on %FMD or other measures of vascular function. However, the beneficial effects on serum lipid biomarkers, blood pressure and E-selectin offer a potential public health strategy for CVD risk reduction.

Estimation after subpopulation selection in adaptive seamless trials

During the development of new therapies, it is not uncommon to test whether a new treatment works better than the existing treatment for all patients who suffer from a condition (full population) or for a subset of the full population (subpopulation). One approach that may be used for this objective is to have two separate trials, where in the first trial, data are collected to determine if the new treatment benefits the full population or the subpopulation. The second trial is a confirmatory trial to test the new treatment in the population selected in the first trial. In this paper, we consider the more efficient two-stage adaptive seamless designs (ASDs), where in stage 1, data are collected to select the population to test in stage 2. In stage 2, additional data are collected to perform confirmatory analysis for the selected population. Unlike the approach that uses two separate trials, for ASDs, stage 1 data are also used in the confirmatory analysis. Although ASDs are efficient, using stage 1 data both for selection and confirmatory analysis introduces selection bias and consequently statistical challenges in making inference. We will focus on point estimation for such trials. In this paper, we describe the extent of bias for estimators that ignore multiple hypotheses and selecting the population that is most likely to give positive trial results based on observed stage 1 data. We then derive conditionally unbiased estimators and examine their mean squared errors for different scenarios.

Enantiomeric conformation controls rate and yield of photoinduced electron transfer in DNA sensitized by Ru(II) Dipyridophenazine complexes

Photosensitized oxidation of guanine is an important route to DNA damage. Ruthenium polypyridyls are very useful photosensitizers as their reactivity and DNA-binding properties are readily tunable. Here we show a strong difference in the reactivity of the two enantiomers of [Ru(TAP)2(dppz)]2+, by using time-resolved visible and IR spectroscopy. This reveals that the photosensitized one-electron oxidation of guanine in three oligonucleotide sequences proceeds with similar rates and yields for bound delta-[Ru(TAP)2(dppz)]2+, whereas those for the lambda enantiomer are very sensitive to base sequence. It is proposed that these differences are due to preferences of each enantiomer for different binding sites in the duplex.

Reversal of a single base pair step controls guanine photo-oxidation by an intercalating Ru(II) dipyridophenazine complex

Small changes in DNA sequence can often have major biological effects. Here the rates and yields of guanine photo-oxidation by Λ [Ru(TAP)2(dppz)]2+ have been compared in 5′-{CCGGATCCGG}2 and 5′-{CCGGTACCGG}2 using ps/ns transient visible and time-resolved IR (TRIR) spectroscopy. The inefficiency of electron transfer in the TA sequence is consistent with the 5′-TA-3′ vs. 5′-AT-3′ binding preference predicted by X-ray crystallography. The TRIR spectra also reveal the differences in binding sites in the two oligonucleotides.