Use of posterior predictive assessments to evaluate model fit in multilevel logistic regression

Assessing the fit of a model is an important final step in any statistical analysis, but this is not straightforward when complex discrete response models are used. Cross validation and posterior predictions have been suggested as methods to aid model criticism. In this paper a comparison is made between four methods of model predictive assessment in the context of a three level logistic regression model for clinical mastitis in dairy cattle; cross validation, a prediction using the full posterior predictive distribution and two “mixed” predictive methods that incorporate higher level random effects simulated from the underlying model distribution. Cross validation is considered a gold standard method but is computationally intensive and thus a comparison is made between posterior predictive assessments and cross validation. The analyses revealed that mixed prediction methods produced results close to cross validation whilst the full posterior predictive assessment gave predictions that were over-optimistic (closer to the observed disease rates) compared with cross validation. A mixed prediction method that simulated random effects from both higher levels was best at identifying the outlying level two (farm-year) units of interest. It is concluded that this mixed prediction method, simulating random effects from both higher levels, is straightforward and may be of value in model criticism of multilevel logistic regression, a technique commonly used for animal health data with a hierarchical structure.

Intubação Endotraqueal – Um Dilema na Assistência Pré-hospitalar

A intubação endotraqueal (IET), no pré-hospitalar, é considerada o “gold standard” na manutenção da via aérea de modo a fornecer a ventilação e oxigenação à pessoa em situação crítica, no entanto, está associada a várias complicações e riscos. Com este trabalho de revisão sistemática da literatura pretendeu-se compreender a relação entre a IET em emergência pré-hospitalar e o prognóstico da pessoa em situação crítica, colocando a seguinte questão: “Qual o impacto da intubação endotraqueal, em emergência pré-hospitalar, no prognóstico clínico do doente?”. Este trabalho de investigação iniciou-se com uma pesquisa da literatura de língua inglesa e portuguesa, nas bases de dados científicas MEDLINE, CINAHL, MedicLatina e Nursing and Allied Health Collection num horizonte temporal entre 2010 e 2014. A evidência destaca que a realização da intubação endotraqueal, no pré-hospitalar, está associada a piores taxas de reanimação cardiorrespiratória, ao aumento das taxas de mortalidade e ao aumento das comorbilidades. Estas conclusões reforçam a discussão em torno da prática da IET no pré-hospitalar e sensibilizam os profissionais de saúde para a limitação desta prática a casos em que exista indicação clínica segura.

Evaluation of Calretinin as a New Marker in the Diagnosis of Hirschsprung Disease

Background: Hirschsprung’s disease (HD) is a congenital intestinal motility disorder with absence of ganglion cells in the colonic wall. Diagnosis of the disease is mainly based on the identification of the lack of ganglion cells in the pathology sections of the colon which is very difficult and time consuming and also needs several serial cut sections. There are many proposed markers in this field in the literature but none of them has been satisfactory. Calretinin immunohistochemistry (IHC) has been introduced as a new diagnostic marker to overcome the problems in diagnosis of this disease about 5 years ago. However there are few studies regarding the benefits and pitfalls of this marker. Objectives: The aim of this study is to determine the diagnostic value of calretinin IHC in detecting aganglionosis (HD). Patients and Methods: 27 HD patients and 28 non-Hirschsprung’s disease (NHD) patients were collected in a prospective study and calretinin IHC was performed on 31 aganglionic and 51 normoganglionic full wall thickness sections of colectomies (some of the cases had more than 1 section). The IHC slides were evaluated by two pathologists and the diagnostic value was calculated in comparison with gold standard which is the presence or absence of ganglion cells in serial Hematoxylin and Eosin (HE) stained sections of the colectomies. Results: There was great concordance between the final diagnosis of both pathologists and gold standard (k > 0.9). Calretinin immunostaining showed 100% specificity and positive predictive value and more than 90% sensitivity and negative predictive value. High agreement was present between the two pathologists (k > 0.9). Conclusions: Calretinin IHC is a very convenient, useful and valuable method to demonstrate aganglionosis in HD patients. Loss of calretinin immunostaining in lamina propria and submucosa is characteristic of HD.

Estudio comparativo de la fiabilidad y reproducibilidad en la medición de los tamaños dentarios y las medidas de las arcadas dentarias entre registros manuales y digitales 3d obtenidos por escaneado intraoral y extraoral

Tradicionalmente, los ortodoncistas han realizado las mediciones dentales en los modelos de yeso, pero los avances tecnológicos permiten ahora a los ortodoncistas realizar esas mediciones en los modelos digitales. El propósito de este estudio fue comparar la fiabilidad y reproducibilidad de las medidas de los tamaños dentarios y las arcadas dentarias entre el método manual y los métodos digitales 3D obtenidos por un escáner intraoral CEREC Omnicam (Sirona Dental Systems) y dos escáneres extraorales: inEos X5 (Sirona Dental Systems) y Dental Scanner SMART (Open Technologies). Un modelo de yeso, un escaneado intraoral y dos modelos digitales con un escáner extraoral fueron realizadas para cada uno de los 20 sujetos. Las medidas de los tamaños dentarios, la distancia intercanina y la distancia intermolar de los modelos digitales se compararon con los correspondientes modelos de yeso (estándar de oro) Se utilizó el test de ANOVA para establecer la fiabilidad entre los cuatro métodos y el coeficiente de correlación intraclase fue calculado para determinar la reproducibilidad intra- e inter-examinador. Los resultados encontrados fueron que no existieron diferencias estadísticamente significativas entre las medidas hechas directamente en los modelos de yeso y los modelos digitales. Los coeficientes de correlación intraclase tanto intra- e inter-examinador fue alto y considerado bueno para los cuatro métodos de medición. CCI> 0.90. Se concluyó que las mediciones en los modelos digitales obtenidos con un escáner extraoral e intraoral son fiables y reproducibles

Pediatric Coronary Artery Revascularization Surgery: Development and Effects on Survival, Cardiac Events and Graft Patency for Children With Kawasaki Disease Coronary Involvements

Pediatric coronary artery bypass surgery gained wide acceptance with the introduction of internal thoracic arteries (ITAs) for bypass operations for post Kawasaki disease (KD) lesions. The technique is now established as the standard surgical choice, and its safety even in infancy, graft patency, growth potential, graft longevity and clinical efficacy have been well documented. In this article the author reviews the development of pediatric coronary bypass as the main indication for the treatment of coronary lesions due to KD. I believe that coronary revascularization surgery in pediatric population utilizing uni- or bilateral ITAs is the current gold-standard as the most reliable treatment, although percutaneous coronary intervention with or without a stent has been tried with vague long-term results in children.

Índices predictores de asma bronquial en niños y niñas de 6 a 11 años atendidos en consulta externa de neumología del Hospital Vicente Corral Moscoso de la ciudad de Cuenca. 2015

Antecedentes: Distintos estudios han demostrado que aproximadamente la mitad de los niños presentan al menos un episodio de obstrucción bronquial durante los primeros 3 años de vida y, en más del 50% de ellos el episodio se repite una o más veces. Entonces es necesario prever que niños que inician con sibilancias en una etapa temprana de la vida, van a padecer de asma en el futuro, estudios realizados muestran una sensibilidad del 16 % y especificidad del 97 % para el IPA Castro – Rodríguez y para el PIAMA una sensibilidad de 63% y una especificidad del 64% aproximadamente. Objetivo General: Determinar la validez de diversos índices predictores de asma bronquial en niños y niñas de 6 a 11 años atendidos en Consulta Externa de Neumología del Hospital Vicente Corral Moscoso. Metodología: Se trató de un estudio de validación de test predictores de asma en la totalidad de niños/as de 6 a 11 años con diagnóstico de asma y un grupo equitativo escogidos al azar de niños de las mismas edades atendidos en consulta externa de Neumología durante el periodo Enero – Diciembre 2014. Se aplicó una encuesta a sus representantes, además se revisó los hemogramas previos que mostraron eosinofilia. Los datos fueron analizados con los programas SPSS versión 20. Uso de resultados: Se mostró la validez de los Índices Predictores de Asma que podrán ser aplicados a niños en edades aún más tempranas

Evaluation of nutritional status and energy expenditure in athletes

El ejercicio físico continuo conduce al atleta a mantener un equilibrio inestable entre la ingesta dietética, el gasto de energía y las exigencias adicionales de un alto grado de actividad física. Por lo tanto, una evaluación precisa del estado nutricional es esencial para optimizar el rendimiento, ya que afecta a la salud, la composición corporal, y la recuperación del atleta. Aspectos específicos como tipo de deporte, especialidad o posición de juego, programa de entrenamiento y calendario de competiciones, la categoría, objetivos específicos, que difieran de la población en general, deben ser tenidos en cuenta. La evaluación bioquímica nos puede dar una idea general del estado nutricional, del perfil lipídico, del funcionamiento de hígado o riñón, de si la dieta es demasiado alta en proteínas o grasas, así como las posibles deficiencias nutricionales y la necesidad de suplementación. La cineantropometría deportiva tiene gran utilidad ya que permite la evaluación de la masa corporal, altura, longitud, diámetro, perímetro y pliegues cutáneos, donde la información se procesa mediante la aplicación de diferentes ecuaciones, obteniendo información sobre el somatotipo, la composición corporal y la proporcionalidad de las distintas partes del cuerpo. Para poder dar una orientación nutricional adecuada, las necesidades de energía de los atletas deben ser conocidas. Si la medición objetiva no es posible, existen tablas que incluyen los requerimientos de energía teóricamente establecidos para diferentes deportes. La evaluación dietética debe incluir información sobre el consumo de alimentos y nutrientes para establecer la relación entre la dieta, el estado de salud y el rendimiento del atleta. Por otro lado, un estado adecuado de hidratación en los atletas es esencial para mantener un rendimiento óptimo. Se debe valorar específicamente la ingesta de líquidos por parte del deportista. La deshidratación puede causar efectos nocivos en la salud de los atletas. Como no existe un método “gold standard”, la gravidez y el color de la orina son los métodos más extendidos para analizar el estado de hidratación. Hay consenso en que la combinación de diferentes métodos asegura una captura efectiva de datos para la valoración nutricional del deportista que permitirá proceder a la intervención dietética y nutricional.

Caractérisation pharmacocinétique et pharmacodynamique de la lidocaïne avec ou sans adrénaline lors d’un bloc paravertébral du plexus brachial chez le chien

Au cours des vingt dernières années, l’anesthésie régionale est devenue, autant en médecine vétérinaire qu’humaine, un outil essentiel à l’élaboration de protocoles analgésiques péri-opératoires. Parmi l’éventail de techniques mises au point en anesthésie canine, le bloc paravertébral du plexus vertébral (PBPB) et sa version modifiée sont d’un grand intérêt pour toute procédure du membre thoracique, dans sa portion proximale. Toutefois, l’essentiel des données publiées à ce jour provient d’études colorimétriques, sans évaluation clinique, et peu d’information est disponible sur les techniques de localisation nerveuse envisageables à ce site. Notre étude visait à décrire une approche échoguidée du PBPB modifié, puis à caractériser ses paramètres pharmacocinétiques et pharmacodynamiques après administration de lidocaïne (LI) ou lidocaïne adrénalinée (LA). Huit chiens ont été inclus dans un protocole prospectif, randomisé, en aveugle et croisé, réparti sur trois périodes. L’impact pharmacodynamique du bloc effectué avec LI ou LA a été évalué régulièrement pour 180 min suivant son exécution. Le traitement à l’adrénaline n’a pas démontré d’impact significatif (P = 0,845) sur la durée du bloc sensitif, tel qu’évalué par un stimulus douloureux mécanique appliqué aux dermatomes ciblés. À l’opposé, l’atteinte proprioceptive évaluée par la démarche a été trouvée prolongée (P = 0,027) et le bloc moteur mesuré par le pic de force verticale (PVF) au trot sur la plaque de force s’est avéré plus marqué (PVF réduit; P = 0,007) sous LA. À l’arrêt comme au trot, le nadir de la courbe PVF-temps a été trouvé retardé (P < 0,005) et la pente ascendante de retour aux valeurs normales adoucie (P = 0,005). Parallèlement aux évaluations cliniques, des échantillons plasmatiques ont été collectés régulièrement afin de quantifier et décrire le devenir pharmacocinétique de la lidocaïne. Parmi les trois élaborés, un modèle bi-compartimental doté d’une double absorption asynchrone d’ordre zéro a finalement été sélectionné et appliqué aux données expérimentales. Sous LA, la Cmax a été trouvée significativement diminuée (P < 0,001), les phases d’absorption prolongées [P < 0,020 (Dur1) et P < 0,001 (Dur2)] et leurs constantes réduites [P = 0,046(k01) et P < 0,001 (k02)], le tout en concordance avec les effets proprioceptifs et moteurs rapportés. Bien que l’extrapolation du dosage soit maintenant théoriquement envisageable à partir du modèle mis en lumière ici, des études supplémentaires sont encore nécessaires afin d’établir un protocole de PBPB d’intérêt clinique. L’analyse sur plaque de force pourrait alors devenir un outil de choix pour évaluer l’efficacité du bloc dans un cadre expérimental.

Quantising contribution effort in online communities

We describe the Joint Effort-Topic (JET) model and the Author Joint Effort-Topic (aJET) model that estimate the effort required for users to contribute on different topics. We propose to learn word-level effort taking into account term preference over time and use it to set the priors of our models. Since there is no gold standard which can be easily built, we evaluate them by measuring their abilities to validate expected behaviours such as correlations between user contributions and the associated effort.

Assessment of MALDI-TOF MS as Alternative Tool for Streptococcus suis Identification

The accuracy of matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) for identifying Streptococcus suis isolates obtained from pigs, wild animals, and humans was evaluated using a PCR-based identification assay as the gold standard. In addition, MALDI-TOF MS was compared with the commercial multi-tests Rapid ID 32 STREP system. From the 129 S. suis isolates included in the study and identified by the molecular method, only 31 isolates (24.03%) had score values ≥2.300 and 79 isolates (61.24%) gave score values between 2.299 and 2.000. After updating the currently available S. suis MALDI Biotyper database with the spectra of three additional clinical isolates of serotypes 2, 7, and 9, most isolates had statistically significant higher score values (mean score: 2.65) than those obtained using the original database (mean score: 2.182). Considering the results of the present study, we suggest using a less restrictive threshold score of ≥2.000 for reliable species identification of S. suis. According to this cut-off value, a total of 125 S. suis isolates (96.9%) were correctly identified using the updated database. These data indicate an excellent performance of MALDI-TOF MS for the identification of S. suis.

Caractérisation pharmacocinétique et pharmacodynamique de la lidocaïne avec ou sans adrénaline lors d’un bloc paravertébral du plexus brachial chez le chien

Au cours des vingt dernières années, l’anesthésie régionale est devenue, autant en médecine vétérinaire qu’humaine, un outil essentiel à l’élaboration de protocoles analgésiques péri-opératoires. Parmi l’éventail de techniques mises au point en anesthésie canine, le bloc paravertébral du plexus vertébral (PBPB) et sa version modifiée sont d’un grand intérêt pour toute procédure du membre thoracique, dans sa portion proximale. Toutefois, l’essentiel des données publiées à ce jour provient d’études colorimétriques, sans évaluation clinique, et peu d’information est disponible sur les techniques de localisation nerveuse envisageables à ce site. Notre étude visait à décrire une approche échoguidée du PBPB modifié, puis à caractériser ses paramètres pharmacocinétiques et pharmacodynamiques après administration de lidocaïne (LI) ou lidocaïne adrénalinée (LA). Huit chiens ont été inclus dans un protocole prospectif, randomisé, en aveugle et croisé, réparti sur trois périodes. L’impact pharmacodynamique du bloc effectué avec LI ou LA a été évalué régulièrement pour 180 min suivant son exécution. Le traitement à l’adrénaline n’a pas démontré d’impact significatif (P = 0,845) sur la durée du bloc sensitif, tel qu’évalué par un stimulus douloureux mécanique appliqué aux dermatomes ciblés. À l’opposé, l’atteinte proprioceptive évaluée par la démarche a été trouvée prolongée (P = 0,027) et le bloc moteur mesuré par le pic de force verticale (PVF) au trot sur la plaque de force s’est avéré plus marqué (PVF réduit; P = 0,007) sous LA. À l’arrêt comme au trot, le nadir de la courbe PVF-temps a été trouvé retardé (P < 0,005) et la pente ascendante de retour aux valeurs normales adoucie (P = 0,005). Parallèlement aux évaluations cliniques, des échantillons plasmatiques ont été collectés régulièrement afin de quantifier et décrire le devenir pharmacocinétique de la lidocaïne. Parmi les trois élaborés, un modèle bi-compartimental doté d’une double absorption asynchrone d’ordre zéro a finalement été sélectionné et appliqué aux données expérimentales. Sous LA, la Cmax a été trouvée significativement diminuée (P < 0,001), les phases d’absorption prolongées [P < 0,020 (Dur1) et P < 0,001 (Dur2)] et leurs constantes réduites [P = 0,046(k01) et P < 0,001 (k02)], le tout en concordance avec les effets proprioceptifs et moteurs rapportés. Bien que l’extrapolation du dosage soit maintenant théoriquement envisageable à partir du modèle mis en lumière ici, des études supplémentaires sont encore nécessaires afin d’établir un protocole de PBPB d’intérêt clinique. L’analyse sur plaque de force pourrait alors devenir un outil de choix pour évaluer l’efficacité du bloc dans un cadre expérimental.

Gravidez e Doença de Wilson: Revisão de 3 Casos Clínicos

A doença de Wilson é uma doença hereditária autossómica recessiva que afecta o gene ATP7B, localizado no cromossoma 13. Caracteriza-se por uma alteração do transporte transmembranar do cobre, acumulando-se este no fígado e noutros órgãos, principalmente cérebro, rins e córnea. A prevalência mundial é de aproximadamente 30 casos por milhão de habitantes. Cerca de 60 a 70% dos casos são diagnosticados entre os 8 e os 20 anos de idade. Clinicamente, apresenta-se como doença hepática, neurológica ou psiquiátrica. O seu diagnóstico é baseado num alto índice de suspeição e na combinação de achados clínicos e laboratoriais. O exame gold standard para o diagnóstico é a biópsia hepática com doseamento do cobre. O tratamento consiste na terapêutica farmacológica permanente ou no transplante hepático. Existem actualmente três fármacos disponíveis: a penicilamina e a trientina (agentes quelantes) e o zinco. O tetratiomolibdato é um agente quelante ainda em investigação. A capacidade reprodutiva das mulheres com doença de Wilson tem melhorado com o aumento da eficácia destas terapêuticas e, como tal, a gravidez torna-se mais frequente. Esta parece não afectar o curso da doença e o principal problema que se coloca é a escolha da terapêutica mais adequada durante a gestação, dado que a segurança destes fármacos na gravidez não está garantida. Os autores descrevem 3 casos de grávidas com doença de Wilson, vigiadas na sua instituição, e discutem a controvérsia em torno do uso destes fármacos no tratamento da doença durante a gravidez e amamentação.

Valoración del dolor en el paciente con trauma grave y ventilación mecánica no comunicativo

Pain is defined since 1979 by the International Association for the Study of Pain (IASP) as "unpleasant subjective, sensory and emotional experience associated with actual or potential damage of tissue", with the concept more acceptable in our days. The Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is a complex environment to assess pain, where the difficulty in communication with the patient is the biggest barrier to getting your "selfreport", which is considered the gold standard in pain assessment. Many factors alter communication with critically ill patients, as the low level of consciousness, mechanical ventilation, sedation, and the patient's own pathology, besides, there are other limitations such as excessive technology or devices that can divert professional attention to the patient's pain behavior, and lack of training and guidance for management. The multicenter study SUPPORT, it showed that 50-65% of critical patients included suffered pain, and 15% of them reported moderate to severe intensity for more than half the period of hospitalization. Critically ill patients experience pain due to high volume of potentially painful techniques applied to them during their ICU admission, emphasizing nursing care and tracheal suctioning, mobilization, wound healing and channeling of catheters and others. The underestimation of pain involves physiological and hemodynamic effects such as increased blood pressure and/or heart rate, altered breathing pattern, and psychological and anxiety. Also an increase of sedation and mechanical ventilation time and ICU stay of increasing the morbidity and mortality of critically ill patients...

An in-depth characterisation of neonatal seizures by early continuous video-EEG analysis

Introduction Seizures are harmful to the neonatal brain; this compels many clinicians and researchers to persevere further in optimizing every aspects of managing neonatal seizures. Aims To delineate the seizure profile between non-cooled versus cooled neonates with hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE), in neonates with stroke, the response of seizure burden to phenobarbitone and to quantify the degree of electroclinical dissociation (ECD) of seizures. Methods The multichannel video-EEG was used in this research study as the gold standard to detect seizures, allowing accurate quantification of seizure burden to be ascertained in term neonates. The entire EEG recording for each neonate was independently reviewed by at least 1 experienced neurophysiologist. Data were expressed in medians and interquartile ranges. Linear mixed models results were presented as mean (95% confidence interval); p values <0.05 were deemed as significant. Results Seizure burden in cooled neonates was lower than in non-cooled neonates [60(39-224) vs 203(141-406) minutes; p=0.027]. Seizure burden was reduced in cooled neonates with moderate HIE [49(26-89) vs 162(97-262) minutes; p=0.020] when compared with severe HIE. In neonates with stroke, the background pattern showed suppression over the infarcted side and seizures demonstrated a characteristic pattern. Compared with 10 mg/kg, phenobarbitone doses at 20 mg/kg reduced seizure burden (p=0.004). Seizure burden was reduced within 1 hour of phenobarbitone administration [mean (95% confidence interval): -14(-20 to -8) minutes/hour; p<0.001], but seizures returned to pre-treatment levels within 4 hours (p=0.064). The ECD index in cooled, non-cooled neonates with HIE, stroke and in neonates with other diagnoses were 88%, 94%, 64% and 75% respectively. Conclusions Further research exploring the treatment effects on seizure burden in the neonatal brain is required. A change to our current treatment strategy is warranted as we continue to strive for more effective seizure control, anchored with use of the multichannel EEG as the surveillance tool.

The Trier Social Stress Test: principles and practice

Researchers interested in the neurobiology of the acute stress response in humans require a valid and reliable acute stressor that can be used under experimental conditions. The Trier Social Stress Test (TSST) provides such a testing platform. It induces stress by requiring participants to make an interview-style presentation, followed by a surprise mental arithmetic test, in front of an interview panel who do not provide feedback or encouragement. In this review, we outline the methodology of the TSST, and discuss key findings under conditions of health and stress-related disorder. The TSST has unveiled differences in males and females, as well as different age groups, in their neurobiological response to acute stress. The TSST has also deepened our understanding of how genotype may moderate the cognitive neurobiology of acute stress, and exciting new inroads have been made in understanding epigenetic contributions to the biological regulation of the acute stress response using the TSST. A number of innovative adaptations have been developed which allow for the TSST to be used in group settings, with children, in combination with brain imaging, and with virtual committees. Future applications may incorporate the emerging links between the gut microbiome and the stress response. Future research should also maximise use of behavioural data generated by the TSST. Alternative acute stress paradigms may have utility over the TSST in certain situations, such as those that require repeat testing. Nonetheless, we expect that the TSST remains the gold standard for examining the cognitive neurobiology of acute stress in humans.