Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

Conceito global: um método de avaliação de competência clínica

Muito se tem feito para desenvolver métodos que avaliem de forma confiável a proficiência em habilidade clínica dos alunos de graduação médica. Há fortes evidências de que a avaliação global pode ser uma alternativa viável e confiável na avaliação de estudantes de graduação no ambiente clínico. Rotineiramente, a competência clínica tem sido avaliada pelos docentes por meio de um conceito subjetivo. Essa nota, dada por um especialista, não é objetiva e está sujeita a vieses. O uso de um instrumento bem delineado, com diversos itens pontuados numa escala, oferece a vantagem de especificar o que deve ser avaliado, auxiliando os avaliadores a distinguir os diferentes níveis do desempenho. Usando este método, os docentes podem expressar sua percepção global dos alunos, de forma mais objetiva, em relação a duas esferas distintas da competência: técnica (contendo itens como história clínica, exame físico, conhecimento médico, julgamento clínico, solução de problemas e hábitos no trabalho) e humanista (incluindo comunicação com pacientes e familiares, respeito, habilidades reflexivas, sensibilidade ao contexto e trabalho em equipe).

Influência dos cursos preparatórios para residência médica em uma avaliação global

INTRODUÇÃO: O desenvolvimento cognitivo é um processo complexo e o mais intenso na formação médica, necessitando ser acompanhado minuciosa e criteriosamente. Várias ferramentas foram criadas com o intuito de acompanhar tal processo, entre elas o teste global (ou de situação) de conhecimento, cuja finalidade é avaliar o desempenho cognitivo durante o curso e o próprio curso, bem como treinar acadêmicos para concursos. Outra forma de treinamento para provas de qualificação, muito usada atualmente, são os Cursos Preparatórios (CP) para residência médica. OBJETIVO: Analisar a influência e eficácia dos CP no ganho cognitivo dos acadêmicos do internato bienal de um curso de Medicina. METODOLOGIA: Estudo transversal, quantitativo, com aplicação de uma prova de situação aos internos que cursam ou não CP. RESULTADOS: Realizaram a prova 127 internos, sendo 63 do primeiro semestre e 64 do terceiro. A média de acerto geral foi de 5,1 ± 1,0 (5,0 ± 0,9 para quintanistas e 5,1 ± 1,2 para sextanistas; p = 0,533). Do total dos internos, 77,2% participavam de CP, sendo menor a proporção dos quintanistas (65,1% vs. 89,1%; p = 0,001). Não se observou diferença estatística no desempenho cognitivo dos internos relacionado à "frequência ou não de CP" (5,1 ± 1,1 vs. 4,8 ± 1,0; p = 0,203). CONCLUSÃO: O teste do tipo global não apresentou diferença estatística significativa no desempenho cognitivo dos estudantes de uma série para outra, não demonstrando no CP fator diferenciador neste tipo de avaliação (testes de múltipla escolha), colocando em dúvida a real influência e efetividade do CP.

Efficient installed base information management and utilization in global after sales service business

This Master´s thesis explores how the a global industrial corporation’s after sales service department should arrange its installed base management practices in order to maintain and utilize the installed base information effectively. Case company has product-related records, such as product’s lifecycle information, service history information and information about product’s performance. Information is collected and organized often case by case, therefore the systematic and effective use of installed base information is difficult also the overview of installed base is missing. The goal of the thesis study was to find out how the case company can improve the installed base maintenance and management practices and improve the installed base information availability and reliability. Installed base information management practices were first examined through the literature. The empirical research was conducted by the interviews and questionnaire survey, targeted to the case company’s service department. The research purpose was to find out the challenges related to case company´s service department’s information management practices. The study also identified the installed base information needs and improvement potential in the availability of information. Based on the empirical research findings, recommendations for improve installed base management practices and information availability were created. Grounding of the recommendations, the case company is suggested the following proposals for action: Service report development, improving the change management process, ensuring the quality of the product documentation in early stages of product life cycle and decision to improve installed base management practices.

Making Sense of Shared Leadership. A case study of leadership processes and practices without formal leadership structure in the team context

Leadership is essential for the effectiveness of the teams and organizations they are part of. The challenges facing organizations today require an exhaustive review of the strategic role of leadership. In this context, it is necessary to explore new types of leadership capable of providing an effective response to new needs. The presentday situations, characterized by complexity and ambiguity, make it difficult for an external leader to perform all leadership functions successfully. Likewise, knowledge-based work requires providing professional groups with sufficient autonomy to perform leadership functions. This study focuses on shared leadership in the team context. Shared leadership is seen as an emergent team property resulting from the distribution of leadership influence across multiple team members. Shared leadership entails sharing power and influence broadly among the team members rather than centralizing it in the hands of a single individual who acts in the clear role of a leader. By identifying the team itself as a key source of influence, this study points to the relational nature of leadership as a social construct where leadership is seen as social process of relating processes that are co-constructed by several team members. Based on recent theoretical developments concerned with relational, practice-based and constructionist approaches to the study of leadership processes, this thesis proposes the study of leadership interactions, working processes and practices to focus on the construction of direction, alignment and commitment. During the research process, critical events, activities, working processes and practices of a case team have been examined and analyzed with the grounded theory –approach in the terms of shared leadership. There are a variety of components to this complex process and a multitude of factors that may influence the development of shared leadership. The study suggests that the development process of shared leadership is a common sense -making process and consists of four overlapping dimensions (individual, social, structural, and developmental) to work with as a team. For shared leadership to emerge, the members of the team must offer leadership services, and the team as a whole must be willing to rely on leadership by multiple team members. For these individual and collective behaviors to occur, the team members must believe that offering influence to and accepting it from fellow team members are welcome and constructive actions. Leadership emerges when people with differing world views use dialogue and collaborative learning to create spaces where a shared common purpose can be achieved while a diversity of perspectives is preserved and valued. This study also suggests that this process can be supported by different kinds of meaning-making and process tools. Leadership, then, does not reside in a person or in a role, but in the social system. The built framework integrates the different dimensions of shared leadership and describes their relationships. This way, the findings of this study can be seen as a contribution to the understanding of what constitutes essential aspects of shared leadership in the team context that can be of theoretical value in terms of advancing the adoption and development process of shared leadership. In the real world, teams and organizations can create conditions to foster and facilitate the process. We should encourage leaders and team members to approach leadership as a collective effort that the team can be prepared for, so that the response is rapid and efficient.

Effects of global climate changes on geographical distribution patterns of economically important plant species in cerrado

Different climate models, modeling methods and carbon emission scenarios were used in this paper to evaluate the effects of future climate changes on geographical distribution of species of economic and cultural importance across the Cerrado biome. As the results of several studies have shown, there are still many uncertainties associated with these projections, although bioclimatic models are still widely used and effective method to evaluate the consequences for biodiversity of these climate changes. In this article, it was found that 90% of these uncertainties are related to methods of modeling, although, regardless of the uncertainties, the results revealed that the studied species will reduce about 78% of their geographic distribution in Cerrado. For an effective work on the conservation of these species, many studies still need to be carried out, although it is already possible to observe that climate change will have a strong influence on the pattern of distribution of these species.

Developing markets of energy biomass – local and global perspectives

The thesis explores global and national-level issues related to the development of markets for biomass for energy. The thesis consists of five separate papers and provides insights on selected issues. The aim of Paper I was to identify methodological and statistical challenges in assessing international solid and liquid biofuels trade and provide an overview of the Finnish situation with respect to the status of international solid and liquid biofuels trade. We found that, for the Finnish case, it is possible to qualify direct and indirect trade volumes of biofuels. The study showed that indirect trade of biofuels has a highly significant role in Finland and may be a significant sector also in global biofuels trade. The purpose of Paper II was to provide a quantified insight into Finnish prospects for meeting the national 2020 renewable energy targets and concurrently becoming a largescale producer of forest-biomass-based second-generation biofuels for feeding increasing demand in European markets. We found that Finland has good opportunities to realise a scenario to meet 2020 renewable energy targets and for large-scale production of wood-based biofuels. The potential net export of transport biofuels from Finland in 2020 would correspond to 2–3% of European demand. Paper III summarises the global status of international solid and liquid biofuels trade as illuminated by several separate sources. International trade of biofuels was estimated at nearly 1 EJ for 2006. Indirect trade of biofuels through trading of industrial roundwood and material by-products comprises the largest proportion of the trading, with a share of about two thirds. The purpose of Paper IV was to outline a comprehensive picture of the coverage of various certification schemes and sustainability principles relating to the entire value-added chain of biomass and bioenergy. Regardless of the intensive work that has been done in the field of sustainability schemes and principles concerning use of biomass for energy, weaknesses still exist. The objective of Paper V was to clarify the alternative scenarios for the international biomass market until 2020 and identify the underlying steps needed toward a wellfunctioning and sustainable market for biomass for energy purposes. An overall conclusion drawn from this analysis concerns the enormous opportunities related to the utilisation of biomass for energy in the coming decades.

Estimativa da irradiação solar global com partição mensal e sazonal para a região de Cascavel - PR

No presente trabalho, mostram-se equações de estimativa da irradiação solar global (R G), por meio do modelo de Angstrom, com partições sazonal e mensal para a região de Cascavel - PR. Os dados experimentais foram cedidos pelo IAPAR, coletados na sua estação meteorológica localizada na COODETEC/Cascavel - PR, no período de 1983 a 1998. Dos 16 anos de dados, 12 anos foram utilizados para cálculo dos coeficientes (a e b) e quatro anos para a validação das equações. Os coeficientes de determinação encontrados foram superiores a 80% para as duas partições. O mínimo da R G é superestimado e o máximo é subestimado quando comparados com o mínimo e o máximo para dados reais, sendo esses encontrados no solstício de inverno e equinócio de primavera, respectivamente. A variação sazonal e mensal do coeficiente "a" foi menor (0,16 a 0,19 e 0,14 a 0,21) e do coeficiente "b" maior (0,34 a 0,43 e 0,32 a 0,44). As maiores variações dos erros médios diários ocorreram no equinócio de primavera (-19,45% a 27,28%) e as menores no equinócio de outono (-11,32% a 10,61%). O ajuste mais eficaz das equações foi encontrado para a partição mensal.

Comparação do Coeficiente Global de Perdas de Calor para casa de vegetação aquecida usando diferentes técnicas para eficiência energética

O Coeficiente Global de Perdas de Calor (U) permite o equacionamento das necessidades térmicas de uma casa de vegetação climatizada. No presente trabalho, determinou-se esse coeficiente cujo referencial foi uma casa de vegetação localizada em Madri (Espanha), em que foram utilizadas medidas noturnas de temperatura do ar no interior, no exterior, bem como o consumo de energia para aquecimento. As comparações entre as técnicas de aquecimento utilizadas foram: solo radiante e aerotermos combinados com duas técnicas que visavam a promover melhor aproveitamento térmico, ou seja, a utilização de cobertura plástica formando dupla capa ou a utilização de túnel plástico. Os menores coeficientes foram conseguidos para a utilização de solo radiante com túnel e aerotermos com dupla capa com 7,19 W m-2 ºC-1 e 9,11 W m-2 ºC-1, respectivamente; o maior valor dentre os coeficientes nas condições estudadas foi 15,13 W m-2 ºC-1 ao considerar o uso de aerotermos sem utilização de plásticos. Conclui-se, portanto, que os resultados comprovam o melhor rendimento térmico para as técnicas ensaiadas.

Socially Competent Leadership - predictors, impacts and skilling in engineering

Earlier management studies have found a relationship between managerial qualities and subordinate impacts, but the effect of managers‘ social competence on leader perceptions has not been solidly established. To fill the related research gap, the present work embarks on a quantitative empirical effort to identify predictors of successful leadership. In particular, this study investigates relationships between perceived leader behavior and three selfreport instruments used to measure managerial capability: 1) the WOPI Work Personality Inventory, 2) Raven‘s general intelligence scale, and 3) the Emotive Communication Scale (ECS). This work complements previous research by resorting to both self-reports and other-reports: the results acquired from the managerial sample are compared to subordinate perceptions as measured through the ECS other-report and the WOPI360 multi-source appraisal. The quantitative research is comprised of a sample of 8o superiors and 354 subordinates operating in eight Finnish organizations. The strongest predictive value emerged from the ECS self- and other-reports and certain personality dimensions. In contrast, supervisors‘ logical intelligence did not correlate with leadership perceived as socially competent by subordinates. 16 of the superiors rated as most socially competent by their subordinates were selected for case analysis. Their qualitative narratives evidence the role of life history and post-traumatic growth in developing managerial skills. The results contribute to leadership theory in four ways. First, the ECS self-report devised for this research offers a reliable scale for predicting socially competent leader ability. Second, the work identifies dimensions of personality and emotive skills that can be considered predictors of managerial ability and benefited from in leader recruitment and career planning. Third, the Emotive Communication Model delineated on the basis of the empirical data allows for a systematic design and planning of communication and leadership education. Fourth, this workfurthers understanding of personal growth strategies and the role of life history in leader development and training. Finally, this research advances educational leadership by conceptualizing and operationalizing effective managerial communications. The Emotive Communication Model devised directs the pedagogic attention in engineering to assertion, emotional availability and inspiration skills. The proposed methodology addresses classroom management strategies drawing from problem-based learning, student empowerment, collaborative learning, and so-called socially competent teachership founded on teacher immediacy and perceived caring, all constituting strategies moving away from student compliance and teacher modelling. The ultimate educational objective embraces the development of individual engineers and organizational leaders that not only possess traditional analytical and technical expertise and substantive knowledge but are intelligent also creatively, practically, and socially.

Evapotranspiração de referência com base na radiação solar global estimada pelo método de Bristow-Campbell

A quantidade de água a ser aplicada em sistemas de irrigação é normalmente calculada com base na evapotranspiração de referência (ETo) da região. Vários métodos podem ser empregados para o cálculo de ETo, sendo o de Hargreaves um dos mais adotados. Esse método utiliza valores estimados da radiação solar global (Rs) com base na diferença entre as temperaturas máxima (Tmáx) e mínima (Tmín) do ar. Entretanto, a Rs pode ser calculada por outros métodos, como o de Bristow-Campbell, que também se baseia na diferença entre Tmáx e Tmín. No presente trabalho, foram estimados valores diários da ETo pelo método de Hargreaves, em Jales - SP, com e sem o uso da equação de Bristow-Campbell para cálculo de Rs. Esses valores foram comparados aos obtidos pelo método de Penman-Monteith, que é considerado padrão para a estimativa de ETo. As avaliações consideraram os períodos úmido e seco na região. O uso da equação de Bristow-Campbell melhorou o desempenho do método de Hargreaves, em relação ao de Penman-Monteith, sendo que durante o período seco do ano o desempenho foi superior ao do período úmido.

Annual evolution of global, direct and diffuse radiation and fractions in tilted surfaces

It was evaluated the annual evolution of global, direct and diffuse components of incident solar radiation on tilted surfaces to 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85º, facing north, in Botucatu, state of São Paulo, Brazil. The radiometric fractions were obtained for each component of the radiation in the aforementioned surfaces, through the ratio with the global and top of the atmosphere radiations. Seasonality was evaluated based on monthly averages of daily values. The measures occurred between 04/1998 and 07/2001 at 22.85º; 08/2001 and 02/2003 at 12.85º; and from 03/2003 to 12/2007 at 32.85º, with concomitant measures in the horizontal surface (reference). The levels of global and direct radiation on tilted surfaces were lower in summer and higher in the equinoxes when compared with the horizontal. The diffuse radiation on tilted surfaces was lower in most months, with losses of up to 65%. A trend of increasing differences occurred between horizontal and tilted surfaces with the increase of the angle in all the components and fractions of incident radiation. The annual evolution of rainfall and cloud cover ratio directly affected the atmospheric transmissivity of direct and diffuse components in the region.