Market Index Biases and Minimum Risk Indices

Markets, in the real world, are not efficient zero-sum games where hypotheses of the CAPM are fulfilled. Then, it is easy to conclude the market portfolio is not located on Markowitz"s efficient frontier, and passive investments (and indexing) are not optimal but biased. In this paper, we define and analyze biases suffered by passive investors: the sample, construction, efficiency and active biases and tracking error are presented. We propose Minimum Risk Indices (MRI) as an alternative to deal with to market index biases, and to provide investors with portfolios closer to the efficient frontier, that is, more optimal investment possibilities. MRI (using a Parametric Value-at-Risk Minimization approach) are calculated for three stock markets achieving interesting results. Our indices are less risky and more profitable than current Market Indices in the Argentinean and Spanish markets, facing that way the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Two innovations must be outlined: an error dimension has been included in the backtesting and the Sharpe"s Ratio has been used to select the"best" MRI

Evaluation of Work Zone Speed Reduction Measures, 2000

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) has made improving work zone (WZ) safety a high priority. Managing vehicle speeds through work zones is perceived to be an important factor in achieving this goal. A number of speed reduction techniques are currently used by transportation agencies throughout the country to control speeds and reduce speed variation at work zones. The purpose of this project is to study these and other applicable work zone speed reduction strategies. Furthermore, this research explores transportation agencies' policies regarding managing speeds in long-term, short-term, and moving work zones. This report consists of three chapters. The first chapter, a literature review, examines the current speed reduction practices at work zones and provides a review of the relevant literature. The speed control strategies reviewed in this chapter range from posting regulatory and advisory speed limit signs to using the latest radar technologies to reduce speeds at work zones. The second chapter includes a short write-up for each identified speed control technique. The write-up includes a description, the results of any field tests, the benefits and the costs of the technology or technique. To learn more about other state policies regarding work zone speed reduction and management, the Center for Transportation Research and Education conducted a survey. The survey consists of six multipart questions. The third chapter provides summaries of the response to each question.

Skeletal muscle mitochondrial energetics are associated with maximal aerobic capacity and walking speed in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Lower ambulatory performance with aging may be related to a reduced oxidative capacity within skeletal muscle. This study examined the associations between skeletal muscle mitochondrial capacity and efficiency with walking performance in a group of older adults. METHODS: Thirty-seven older adults (mean age 78 years; 21 men and 16 women) completed an aerobic capacity (VO peak) test and measurement of preferred walking speed over 400 m. Maximal coupled (State 3; St3) mitochondrial respiration was determined by high-resolution respirometry in saponin-permeabilized myofibers obtained from percutanous biopsies of vastus lateralis (n = 22). Maximal phosphorylation capacity (ATP) of vastus lateralis was determined in vivo by P magnetic resonance spectroscopy (n = 30). Quadriceps contractile volume was determined by magnetic resonance imaging. Mitochondrial efficiency (max ATP production/max O consumption) was characterized using ATP per St3 respiration (ATP/St3). RESULTS: In vitro St3 respiration was significantly correlated with in vivo ATP (r = .47, p = .004). Total oxidative capacity of the quadriceps (St3*quadriceps contractile volume) was a determinant of VO peak (r = .33, p = .006). ATP (r = .158, p = .03) and VO peak (r = .475, p < .0001) were correlated with preferred walking speed. Inclusion of both ATP/St3 and VO peak in a multiple linear regression model improved the prediction of preferred walking speed (r = .647, p < .0001), suggesting that mitochondrial efficiency is an important determinant for preferred walking speed. CONCLUSIONS: Lower mitochondrial capacity and efficiency were both associated with slower walking speed within a group of older participants with a wide range of function. In addition to aerobic capacity, lower mitochondrial capacity and efficiency likely play roles in slowing gait speed with age.

Assessment of Channelizing Device Effectiveness on High Speed/High Volume Roadways, 2007

Part 6 of the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) describes several types of channelizing devices that can be used to warn road users and guide them through work zones; these devices include cones, tubular markers, vertical panels, drums, barricades, and temporary raised islands. On higher speed/volume roadways, drums and/or vertical panels have been popular choices in many states, due to their formidable appearance and the enhanced visibility they provide when compared to standard cones. However, due to their larger size, drums also require more effort and storage space to transport, deploy and retrieve. Recent editions of the MUTCD have introduced new devices for channelizing; specifically of interest for this study is a taller (>36 inches) but thinner cone. While this new device does not offer a comparable target value to that of drums, the new devices are significantly larger than standard cones and they offer improved stability as well. In addition, these devices are more easily deployed and stored than drums and they cost less. Further, for applications previously using both drums and tall cones, the use of tall cones only provides the ability for delivery and setup by a single vehicle. An investigation of the effectiveness of the new channelizing devices provides a reference for states to use in selecting appropriate traffic control for high speed, high volume applications, especially for short term or limited duration exposures. This study includes a synthesis of common practices by state DOTs, as well as daytime and nighttime field observations of driver reactions using video detection equipment. The results of this study are promising for the day and night performance of the new tall cones, comparing favorably to the performance of drums when used for channelizing in tapers. The evaluation showed no statistical difference in merge distance and location, shy distance, or operating speed in either daytime or nighttime conditions. The study should provide a valuable resource for state DOTs to utilize in selecting the most effective channelizing device for use on high speed/high volume roadways where timely merging by drivers is critical to safety and mobility.

Speed-cohesion trade-offs in collective decision making in ants and the concept of precision in animal behaviour

In decision making, speed-accuracy trade-offs are well known and often inevitable because accuracy depends on being well informed and gathering information takes time. However, trade-offs between speed and cohesion, that is the degree to which a group remains together as a single entity, as a result of their decision making, have been comparatively neglected. We combine theory and experimentation to show that in decision-making systems, speed-cohesion trade-offs are a natural complement to speed-accuracy trade-offs and are therefore of general importance. We then analyse the decision performance of 32 rock ant, Temnothorax albipennis, colonies in experiments in which accuracy of collective decision making was held constant, but time urgency varied. These experiments reveal for the first time an adaptive speed-cohesion trade-off in collective decision making and how this is achieved. In accord with different time constraints, colonies can decide quickly, at the cost of social unity, or they can decide slowly with much greater cohesion. We discuss the similarity between cohesion and the term precision as used in statistics and engineering. This emphasizes the generality of speed versus cohesion/precision trade-offs in decision making and decision implementation in other fields within animal behaviour such as sexually selected motor displays and even certain aspects of birdsong. We also suggest that speed versus precision trade-offs may occur when individuals within a group need to synchronize their activity, and in collective navigation, cooperative hunting and in certain escape behaviours.

Development of a Coldwater Benthic Index in Iowa

Benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages do not appear to differ as markedly between coldwater and warmwater streams (in Iowa, at least) as do fish assemblages, and to our knowledge no parallel evaluation of benthic macroinvertebrate communities in coldwater streams has been conducted. What is known is that many taxa are exclusively collected in coldwater environments and are considered “rare” in Iowa from a biogeographical perspective. While the warmwater BMIBI has generally proven to work well as a diagnostic tool for Iowa’s streams, the streams of Iowa’s Paleozoic Plateau tend to group in the “excellent” to “good” qualitative rating categories. The streams of this area tend to be more ecologically intact than other areas of the state; however, there are some artifacts of the current warmwater BMIBI (most specifically metric scoring related to watershed size) that skew IBI values higher. Our objective is to develop a Coldwater Benthic Index (CBI) which will provide a more accurate assessment of streams classified, or potentially classifiable, as coldwater.

Le Koran (Nouvelle édition entièrement revue et corrigée ; augmentée de notes, commentaires et d'un index) / traduction nouvelle faite sur le texte arabe, par M. Kasimirski,...

[Coran (français). 1852]

Body mass index and risk of head and neck cancer in a pooled analysis of case-control studies in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Head and neck cancer (HNC) risk is elevated among lean people and reduced among overweight or obese people in some studies; however, it is unknown whether these associations differ for certain subgroups or are influenced by residual confounding from the effects of alcohol and tobacco use or by other sources of biases. METHODS: We pooled data from 17 case-control studies including 12 716 cases and the 17 438 controls. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for associations between body mass index (BMI) at different ages and HNC risk, adjusted for age, sex, centre, race, education, tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption. RESULTS: Adjusted ORs (95% CIs) were elevated for people with BMI at reference (date of diagnosis for cases and date of selection for controls) 25.0-30.0 kg/m(2) (0.52, 0.44-0.60) and BMI >/=30 kg/m(2) (0.43, 0.33-0.57), compared with BMI >18.5-25.0 kg/m(2). These associations did not differ by age, sex, tumour site or control source. Although the increased risk among people with BMI 25 kg/m(2) was present only in smokers and drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: In our large pooled analysis, leanness was associated with increased HNC risk regardless of smoking and drinking status, although reverse causality cannot be excluded. The reduced risk among overweight or obese people may indicate body size is a modifier of the risk associated with smoking and drinking. Further clarification may be provided by analyses of prospective cohort and mechanistic studies.

Prepregnancy body mass index and resting metabolic rate during pregnancy.

AIM: The resting metabolic rate (RMR) varies among pregnant women. The factors responsible for this variability are unknown. This study aimed to assess the influence of the prepregnancy body mass index (BMI) on the RMR during late pregnancy. METHODS: RMR, height, weight, and total (TEE) and activity (AEE) energy expenditures were measured in 46 healthy women aged 31 ± 5 years (mean ± SD) with low (<19.8), normal (19.8-26.0), and high (>26.0) prepregnancy BMI at 38.2 ± 1.5 weeks of gestation (t(gest)) and 40 ± 7 weeks postpartum (t(post)) (n = 27). RESULTS: The mean t(gest) RMR for the low-, normal-, and high-BMI groups was 1,373, 1,807, and 2,191 kcal/day, respectively (p = 0.001). The overall mean t(gest) RMR was 316 ± 183 kcal/day (21%), higher than the overall mean t(post) value and this difference was correlated with gestational weight gain (r = 0.78, p < 0.001). The scaled metabolic rate by allometry (RMR/kilograms⁰·⁷³) was similar in the low-, normal-, and high-BMI groups, respectively (p = 0.45). Changes in t(gest) TEE closely paralleled changes in t(gest) RMR (r = 0.84, p < 0.001). AEE was similar among the BMI groups. CONCLUSION: The RMR is significantly increased in the third trimester of pregnancy. The absolute gestational RMR is higher in women with high prepregnancy BMI due to increased body weight. The scaled metabolic rate (RMR/kilograms⁰·⁷³) is similar among the BMI groups of pregnant women.

A comparison of the imaging characteristics of the new Kodak Hyper Speed G film with the current T-MAT G/RA film and the CR 9000 system.

Three standard radiation qualities (RQA 3, RQA 5 and RQA 9) and two screens, Kodak Lanex Regular and Insight Skeletal, were used to compare the imaging performance and dose requirements of the new Kodak Hyper Speed G and the current Kodak T-MAT G/RA medical x-ray films. The noise equivalent quanta (NEQ) and detective quantum efficiencies (DQE) of the four screen-film combinations were measured at three gross optical densities and compared with the characteristics for the Kodak CR 9000 system with GP (general purpose) and HR (high resolution) phosphor plates. The new Hyper Speed G film has double the intrinsic sensitivity of the T-MAT G/RA film and a higher contrast in the high optical density range for comparable exposure latitude. By providing both high sensitivity and high spatial resolution, the new film significantly improves the compromise between dose and image quality. As expected, the new film has a higher noise level and a lower signal-to-noise ratio than the standard film, although in the high frequency range this is compensated for by a better resolution, giving better DQE results--especially at high optical density. Both screen-film systems outperform the phosphor plates in terms of MTF and DQE for standard imaging conditions (Regular screen at RQA 5 and RQA 9 beam qualities). At low energy (RQA 3), the CR system has a comparable low-frequency DQE to screen-film systems when used with a fine screen at low and middle optical densities, and a superior low-frequency DQE at high optical density.

Association analyses of 249,796 individuals reveal 18 new loci associated with body mass index.

Obesity is globally prevalent and highly heritable, but its underlying genetic factors remain largely elusive. To identify genetic loci for obesity susceptibility, we examined associations between body mass index and ∼ 2.8 million SNPs in up to 123,865 individuals with targeted follow up of 42 SNPs in up to 125,931 additional individuals. We confirmed 14 known obesity susceptibility loci and identified 18 new loci associated with body mass index (P < 5 × 10⁻⁸), one of which includes a copy number variant near GPRC5B. Some loci (at MC4R, POMC, SH2B1 and BDNF) map near key hypothalamic regulators of energy balance, and one of these loci is near GIPR, an incretin receptor. Furthermore, genes in other newly associated loci may provide new insights into human body weight regulation.

Genetic studies of body mass index yield new insights for obesity biology

Obesity is heritable and predisposes to many diseases. To understand the genetic basis of obesity better, here we conduct a genome-wide association study and Metabochip meta-analysis of body mass index (BMI), a measure commonly used to define obesity and assess adiposity, in up to 339,224 individuals. This analysis identifies 97 BMI-associated loci (P < 5 × 10(-8)), 56 of which are novel. Five loci demonstrate clear evidence of several independent association signals, and many loci have significant effects on other metabolic phenotypes. The 97 loci account for ∼2.7% of BMI variation, and genome-wide estimates suggest that common variation accounts for >20% of BMI variation. Pathway analyses provide strong support for a role of the central nervous system in obesity susceptibility and implicate new genes and pathways, including those related to synaptic function, glutamate signalling, insulin secretion/action, energy metabolism, lipid biology and adipogenesis.

The interrater reliability of the pulmonary embolism severity index

RésuméLe PESI (Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index) est un score clinique pronostique s'appliquant à des patients présentant un diagnostic d'embolie pulmonaire. Notre objectif était de démontrer la reproductibilité de ce score entre différents médecins chez des patients présentant une embolie pulmonaire. Nous avons donc identifié, de façon prospective, des patients présentant une embolie pulmonaire nouvellement diagnostiquée aux urgences d'un Hôpital Universitaire (CHUV, Lausanne). Pour tous ces patients, le médecin assistant en charge ainsi que le chef de clinique superviseur ont individuellement collecté les différentes variables permettant d'établir le score selon le PESI. Ils ont, ensuite, de façon indépendante, classifié les patients dans 5 classes de risque (1-V) ainsi qu'en deux groupes à bas risque versus haut risque, respectivement les classes i-ll et les classes III à V.Nous avons examiné la reproductibilité des données entre deux groupes de médecins (médecins assistants vs chefs de clinique), pour chacune des variables constituant le PESI, pour le score total en points, pour l'attribution aux 5 classes de risque ainsi que pour la classification en deux groupes à haut risque versus bas risque. Cette évaluation de la reproductibilité des résultats obtenus par les différents médecins s'est basée sur le calcul du Kappa (K) ainsi sur les Coefficients de Corrélation Intra-classe (ICC).Parmi les 48 patients présentant une Embolie Pulmonaire inclus dans notre étude, les coefficients de reproductibilité entre médecins assistants et chefs de clinique étaient supérieurs à 0.60 pour 10 des 11 variables du PESI. La reproductibilité entre les 2 groupes de médecins, pour le total des points, pour l'attribution à une classe de risque I à V, ainsi que pour la classification en bas versus haut risque était presque parfaite.Nos résultats démontrent la haute reproductibilité du PESI, et appuient donc l'intérêt de son utilisation pour la stratification du risque chez des patients présentant une embolie pulmonaire.

Normative Topographic ERP Analyses of Speed of Speech Processing and Grammar Before and After Grammatical Treatment.

Typically developing (TD) preschoolers and age-matched preschoolers with specific language impairment (SLI) received event-related potentials (ERPs) to four monosyllabic speech sounds prior to treatment and, in the SLI group, after 6 months of grammatical treatment. Before treatment, the TD group processed speech sounds faster than the SLI group. The SLI group increased the speed of their speech processing after treatment. Posttreatment speed of speech processing predicted later impairment in comprehending phrase elaboration in the SLI group. During the treatment phase, change in speed of speech processing predicted growth rate of grammar in the SLI group.