939 resultados para General linear models


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Improving the representation of the hydrological cycle in Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) is one of the main challenges in modeling the Earth's climate system. One way to evaluate model performance is to simulate the transport of water isotopes. Among those available, tritium (HTO) is an extremely valuable tracer, because its content in the different reservoirs involved in the water cycle (stratosphere, troposphere, ocean) varies by order of magnitude. Previous work incorporated natural tritium into LMDZ-iso, a version of the LMDZ general circulation model enhanced by water isotope diagnostics. Here for the first time, the anthropogenic tritium injected by each of the atmospheric nuclear-bomb tests between 1945 and 1980 has been first estimated and further implemented in the model; it creates an opportunity to evaluate certain aspects of LDMZ over several decades by following the bomb-tritium transient signal through the hydrological cycle. Simulations of tritium in water vapor and precipitation for the period 1950-2008, with both natural and anthropogenic components, are presented in this study. LMDZ-iso satisfactorily reproduces the general shape of the temporal evolution of tritium. However, LMDZ-iso simulates too high a bomb-tritium peak followed by too strong a decrease of tritium in precipitation. The too diffusive vertical advection in AGCMs crucially affects the residence time of tritium in the stratosphere. This insight into model performance demonstrates that the implementation of tritium in an AGCM provides a new and valuable test of the modeled atmospheric transport, complementing water stable isotope modeling.

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Sub-ice shelf circulation and freezing/melting rates in ocean general circulation models depend critically on an accurate and consistent representation of cavity geometry. Existing global or pan-Antarctic data sets have turned out to contain various inconsistencies and inaccuracies. The goal of this work is to compile independent regional fields into a global data set. We use the S-2004 global 1-minute bathymetry as the backbone and add an improved version of the BEDMAP topography for an area that roughly coincides with the Antarctic continental shelf. Locations of the merging line have been carefully adjusted in order to get the best out of each data set. High-resolution gridded data for upper and lower ice surface topography and cavity geometry of the Amery, Fimbul, Filchner-Ronne, Larsen C and George VI Ice Shelves, and for Pine Island Glacier have been carefully merged into the ambient ice and ocean topographies. Multibeam survey data for bathymetry in the former Larsen B cavity and the southeastern Bellingshausen Sea have been obtained from the data centers of Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), gridded, and again carefully merged into the existing bathymetry map. The global 1-minute dataset (RTopo-1 Version 1.0.5) has been split into two netCDF files. The first contains digital maps for global bedrock topography, ice bottom topography, and surface elevation. The second contains the auxiliary maps for data sources and the surface type mask. A regional subset that covers all variables for the region south of 50 deg S is also available in netCDF format. Datasets for the locations of grounding and coast lines are provided in ASCII format.

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Trees and shrubs in tropical Africa use the C3 cycle as a carbon fixation pathway during photosynthesis, while grasses and sedges mostly use the C4 cycle. Leaf-wax lipids from sedimentary archives such as the long-chain n-alkanes (e.g., n-C27 to n-C33) inherit carbon isotope ratios that are representative of the carbon fixation pathway. Therefore, n-alkane d13C values are often used to reconstruct past C3/C4 composition of vegetation, assuming that the relative proportions of C3 and C4 leaf waxes reflect the relative proportions of C3 and C4 plants. We have compared the d13C values of n-alkanes from modern C3 and C4 plants with previously published values from recent lake sediments and provide a framework for estimating the fractional contribution (areal-based) of C3 vegetation cover (fC3) represented by these sedimentary archives. Samples were collected in Cameroon, across a latitudinal transect that accommodates a wide range of climate zones and vegetation types, as reflected in the progressive northward replacement of C3-dominated rain forest by C4-dominated savanna. The C3 plants analysed were characterised by substantially higher abundances of n-C29 alkanes and by substantially lower abundances of n-C33 alkanes than the C4 plants. Furthermore, the sedimentary d13C values of n-C29 and n-C31 alkanes from recent lake sediments in Cameroon (-37.4 per mil to -26.5 per mil) were generally within the range of d13C values for C3 plants, even when from sites where C4 plants dominated the catchment vegetation. In such cases simple linear mixing models fail to accurately reconstruct the relative proportions of C3 and C4 vegetation cover when using the d13C values of sedimentary n-alkanes, overestimating the proportion of C3 vegetation, likely as a consequence of the differences in plant wax production, preservation, transport, and/or deposition between C3 and C4 plants. We therefore tested a set of non-linear binary mixing models using d13C values from both C3 and C4 vegetation as end-members. The non-linear models included a sigmoid function (sine-squared) that describes small variations in the fC3 values as the minimum and maximum d13C values are approached, and a hyperbolic function that takes into account the differences between C3 and C4 plants discussed above. Model fitting and the estimation of uncertainties were completed using the Monte Carlo algorithm and can be improved by future data addition. Models that provided the best fit with the observed d13C values of sedimentary n-alkanes were either hyperbolic functions or a combination of hyperbolic and sine-squared functions. Such non-linear models may be used to convert d13C measurements on sedimentary n-alkanes directly into reconstructions of C3 vegetation cover.

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[EN]To compare the one year effect of two dietary interventions with MeDiet on GL and GI in the PREDIMED trial. Methods. Participants were older subjects at high risk for cardiovascular disease. This analysis included 2866 nondiabetic subjects. Diet was assessed with a validated 137-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). The GI of each FFQ item was assigned by a 5-step methodology using the International Tables of GI and GL Values. Generalized linear models were fitted to assess the relationship between the intervention group and dietary GL and GI at one year of follow-up, using control group as reference.

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We present an IP-based nonparametric (revealed preference) testing procedure for rational consumption behavior in terms of general collective models, which include consumption externalities and public consumption. An empirical application to data drawn from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) demonstrates the practical usefulness of the procedure. Finally, we present extensions of the testing procedure to evaluate the goodness-of-…t of the collective model subject to testing, and to quantify and improve the power of the corresponding collective rationality tests.

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Eucalyptus pellita demonstrated good growth and wood quality traits in this study, with young plantation grown timber being suitable for both solid and pulp wood products. All traits examined were under moderate levels of genetic control with little genotype by environment interaction when grown on two contrasting sites in Vietnam. Eucalyptus pellita currently has a significant role in reforestation in the tropics. Research to support expanded of use of this species is needed: particularly, research to better understand the genetic control of key traits will facilitate the development of genetically improved planting stock. This study aimed to provide estimates of the heritability of diameter at breast height over bark, wood basic density, Kraft pulp yield, modulus of elasticity and microfibril angle, and the genetic correlations among these traits, and understand the importance of genotype by environment interactions in Vietnam. Data for diameter and wood properties were collected from two 10-year-old, open-pollinated progeny trials of E. pellita in Vietnam that evaluated 104 families from six native range and three orchard sources. Wood properties were estimated from wood samples using near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Data were analysed using mixed linear models to estimate genetic parameters (heritability, proportion of variance between seed sources and genetic correlations). Variation among the nine sources was small compared to additive variance. Narrow-sense heritability and genetic correlation estimates indicated that simultaneous improvements in most traits could be achieved from selection among and within families as the genetic correlations among traits were either favourable or close to zero. Type B genetic correlations approached one for all traits suggesting that genotype by environment interactions were of little importance. These results support a breeding strategy utilizing a single breeding population advanced by selecting the best individuals across all seed sources. Both growth and wood properties have been evaluated. Multi-trait selection for growth and wood property traits will lead to more productive populations of E. pellita both with improved productivity and improved timber and pulp properties.

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Endogenous and environmental variables are fundamental in explaining variations in fish condition. Based on more than 20 yr of fish weight and length data, relative condition indices were computed for anchovy and sardine caught in the Gulf of Lions. Classification and regression trees (CART) were used to identify endogenous factors affecting fish condition, and to group years of similar condition. Both species showed a similar annual cycle with condition being minimal in February and maximal in July. CART identified 3 groups of years where the fish populations generally showed poor, average and good condition and within which condition differed between age classes but not according to sex. In particular, during the period of poor condition (mostly recent years), sardines older than 1 yr appeared to be more strongly affected than younger individuals. Time-series were analyzed using generalized linear models (GLMs) to examine the effects of oceanographic abiotic (temperature, Western Mediterranean Oscillation [WeMO] and Rhone outflow) and biotic (chlorophyll a and 6 plankton classes) factors on fish condition. The selected models explained 48 and 35% of the variance of anchovy and sardine condition, respectively. Sardine condition was negatively related to temperature but positively related to the WeMO and mesozooplankton and diatom concentrations. A positive effect of mesozooplankton and Rhone runoff on anchovy condition was detected. The importance of increasing temperatures and reduced water mixing in the NW Mediterranean Sea, affecting planktonic productivity and thus fish condition by bottom-up control processes, was highlighted by these results. Changes in plankton quality, quantity and phenology could lead to insufficient or inadequate food supply for both species.

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Breast milk is regarded as an ideal source of nutrients for the growth and development of neonates, but it can also be a potential source of pollutants. Mothers can be exposed to different contaminants as a result of their lifestyle and environmental pollution. Mercury (Hg) and arsenic (As) could adversely affect the development of fetal and neonatal nervous system. Some fish and shellfish are rich in selenium (Se), an essential trace element that forms part of several enzymes related to the detoxification process, including glutathione S-transferase (GST). The goal of this study was to determine the interaction between Hg, As and Se and analyze its effect on the activity of GST in breast milk. Milk samples were collected from women between day 7 and 10 postpartum. The GST activity was determined spectrophotometrically; total Hg, As and Se concentrations were measured by atomic absorption spectrometry. To explain the possible association of Hg, As and Se concentrations with GST activity in breast milk, generalized linear models were constructed. The model explained 44% of the GST activity measured in breast milk. The GLM suggests that GST activity was positively correlated with Hg, As and Se concentrations. The activity of the enzyme was also explained by the frequency of consumption of marine fish and shellfish in the diet of the breastfeeding women.

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Several recent offsite recreational fishing surveys have used public landline telephone directories as a sampling frame. Sampling biases inherent in this method are recognised, but are assumed to be corrected through demographic data expansion. However, the rising prevalence of mobile-only households has potentially increased these biases by skewing raw samples towards households that maintain relatively high levels of coverage in telephone directories. For biases to be corrected through demographic expansion, both the fishing participation rate and fishing activity must be similar among listed and unlisted fishers within each demographic group. In this study, we tested for a difference in the fishing activity of listed and unlisted fishers within demographic groups by comparing their avidity (number of fishing trips per year), as well as the platform used (boat or shore) and species targeted on their most recent fishing trip. 3062 recreational fishers were interviewed at 34 tackle stores across 12 residential regions of Queensland, Australia. For each fisher, data collected included their fishing avidity, the platform used and species targeted on their most recent trip, their gender, age, residential region, and whether their household had a listed telephone number. Although the most avid fishers were younger and less likely to have a listed phone number, cumulative link models revealed that avidity was not affected by an interaction of phone listing status, age group and residential region (p > 0.05). Likewise, binomial generalized linear models revealed that there was no interaction between phone listing, age group and avidity acting on platform (p > 0.05), and platform was not affected by an interaction of phone listing status, age group, and residential region (p > 0.05). Ordination of target species using Bray-Curtis dissimilarity indices found a significant but irrelevant difference (i.e. small effect size) between listed and unlisted fishers (ANOSIM R < 0.05, p < 0.05). These results suggest that, at this time, the fishing activity of listed and unlisted fishers in Queensland is similar within demographic groups. Future research seeking to validate the assumptions of recreational fishing telephone surveys should investigate fishing participation rates of listed and unlisted fishers within demographic groups.