945 resultados para Estimator standard error and efficiency
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This study presents a detailed investigation of the origin and development of regulations in agricultural marketing in Tamil Nadu. It evaluates the method and process of regulation practised through the orgahisation of a chain of regulated markets in the State. The study also examines in detail the conceptual frame work behind state intervention and show the original concept has been modified subsequently to suit the changed conditions during the post-independence era of planning for economic development Specific objectives explained in the present study include the following: viz, a) The historical aspects that necessitated state intervention in agricultural marketing in the form of organising regulated markets and their evolution, b) The conceptual and organisational bases of regulated markets in Tamil Nadu. c) The impact of such regulations on the existing trade channels or systems.168 d) The performance and efficiency of regulated markets and their achievements. The study also has suggested some remedial measures to reorganise the present organisational pattern of regulated marketing in Tamil Nadu.
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The motivatitni for" the present work is from .a project sanctioned by TSRO. The work involved the development of a quick and reliable test procedure using microwaves, for tflue inspection of cured propellant samples and a method to monitor the curing conditions of propellant mix undergoing the curing process.Normal testing CHE the propellant samples involvecuttimg a piece from each carton and testing it for their tensile strength. The values are then compared with standard ones and based on this result the sample isaccepted or rejected. The tensile strength is a measure ofdegree of cure of the propellant mix. But this measurementis a destructive procedure as it involves cutting of the sample. Moreover, it does not guarantee against nonuniform curing due to power failure, hot air-line failure,operator error etc. This necessitated the need for the development of a quick and reliable non-destructive test procedure.
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Measurement is the act or the result of a quantitative comparison between a given quantity and a quantity of the same kind chosen as a unit. It is generally agreed that all measurements contain errors. In a measuring system where both a measuring instrument and a human being taking the measurement using a preset process, the measurement error could be due to the instrument, the process or the human being involved. The first part of the study is devoted to understanding the human errors in measurement. For that, selected person related and selected work related factors that could affect measurement errors have been identified. Though these are well known, the exact extent of the error and the extent of effect of different factors on human errors in measurement are less reported. Characterization of human errors in measurement is done by conducting an experimental study using different subjects, where the factors were changed one at a time and the measurements made by them recorded. From the pre‐experiment survey research studies, it is observed that the respondents could not give the correct answers to questions related to the correct values [extent] of human related measurement errors. This confirmed the fears expressed regarding lack of knowledge about the extent of human related measurement errors among professionals associated with quality. But in postexperiment phase of survey study, it is observed that the answers regarding the extent of human related measurement errors has improved significantly since the answer choices were provided based on the experimental study. It is hoped that this work will help users of measurement in practice to better understand and manage the phenomena of human related errors in measurement.
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Unit commitment is an optimization task in electric power generation control sector. It involves scheduling the ON/OFF status of the generating units to meet the load demand with minimum generation cost satisfying the different constraints existing in the system. Numerical solutions developed are limited for small systems and heuristic methodologies find difficulty in handling stochastic cost functions associated with practical systems. This paper models Unit Commitment as a multi stage decision task and Reinforcement Learning solution is formulated through one efficient exploration strategy: Pursuit method. The correctness and efficiency of the developed solutions are verified for standard test systems
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The presented thesis considered three different system approach topics to ensure yield and plant health in organically grown potatoes and tomatoes. The first topic describes interactions between late blight (Phytophthora infestans) incidence and soil nitrogen supply on yield in organic potato farming focussing in detail on the yield loss relationship of late blight based on results of several field trials. The interactive effects of soil N-supply, climatic conditions and late blight on the yield were studied in the presence and absence of copper fungicides from 2002-2004 for the potato cultivar Nicola. Under conditions of central Germany the use of copper significantly reduced late blight in almost all cases (15-30 %). However, the reductions in disease through copper application did not result in statistically significant yield increases (+0 – +10 %). Subsequently, only 30 % of the variation in yield could be attributed to disease reductions. A multiple regression model (R²Max), however, including disease reduction, growth duration and temperature sum from planting until 60 % disease severity was reached and soil mineral N contents 10 days after emergence could explain 75 % of the observed variations in yield. The second topic describes the effect of some selected organic fertilisers and biostimulant products on nitrogen-mineralization and efficiency, yield and diseases in organic potato and tomato trials. The organic fertilisers Biofeed Basis (BFB, plant derived, AgroBioProducts, Wageningen, Netherlands) and BioIlsa 12,5 Export (physically hydrolysed leather shavings, hair and skin of animals; ILSA, Arizignano, Italy) and two biostimulant products BioFeed Quality (BFQ, multi-compound seaweed extract, AgroBioProducts) and AUSMA (aqueous pine and spruce needle extract, A/S BIOLAT, Latvia), were tested. Both fertilisers supplied considerable amounts of nitrogen during the main uptake phases of the crops and reached yields as high or higher as compared to the control with horn meal fertilisation. The N-efficiency of the tested fertilisers in potatoes ranged from 90 to 159 kg yield*kg-1 N – input. Most effective with tomatoes were the combined treatments of fertiliser BFB and the biostimulants AUSMA and BFQ. Both biostimulants significantly increased the share of healthy fruit and/or the number of fruits. BFQ significantly increased potato yields (+6 %) in one out of two years and reduced R. solani-infestation in the potatoes. This suggests that the biostimulants had effects on plant metabolism and resistance properties. However, no effects of biostimulants on potato late blight could be observed in the fields. The third topic focused on the effect of suppressive composts and seed tuber health on the saprophytic pathogen Rhizoctonia solani in organic potato systems. In the present study 5t ha-1 DM of a yard and bio-waste (60/40) compost produced in a 5 month composting process and a 15 month old 100 % yard waste compost were used to assess the effects on potato infection with R. solani when applying composts within the limits allowed. Across the differences in initial seed tuber infestation and 12 cultivars 5t DM ha-1 of high quality composts, applied in the seed tuber area, reduced the infestation of harvested potatoes with black scurf, tuber malformations and dry core tubers by 20 to 84 %, 20 to 49 % and 38 to 54 %, respectively, while marketable yields were increased by 5 to 25 % due to lower rates of wastes after sorting (marketable yield is gross yield minus malformed tubers, tubers with dry core, tubers with black scurf > 15% infested skin). The rate of initial black scurf infection of the seed tubers also affected tuber number, health and quality significantly. Compared to healthy seed tubers initial black scurf sclerotia infestation of 2-5 and >10 % of tuber surface led in untreated plots to a decrease in marketable yields by 14-19 and 44-66 %, a increase of black scurf severity by 8-40 and 34-86 % and also increased the amount of malformed and dry core tubers by 32-57 and 109-214 %.
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Objetivos: evaluar la validez y confiabilidad de la versión hispana del instrumento de Tamizaje Juvenil (Encuesta de Salud Juvenil, ESJ) de la Universidad de Columbia aplicados en 2009 por el Programa de Salud Mental Juvenil de la Universidad del Rosario (UR) en el 8avo grado del Centro Educativo Integral de Colsubsidio (CEIC) en Bogotá, Colombia Metodología: Diseño observacional de evaluación de prueba diagnóstica tipo tamizaje en las dos etapas consecutivas del Programa de Tamizaje Juvenil aplicado en 183 alumnos. Evaluación de la reproducibilidad de las pruebas aplicadas a una sub muestra de 63 alumnos calculado con un muestreo aleatorizado por afijacion proporcional en un intervalo de 20 días. Resultados: el instrumento Encuesta de Salud Juvenil (ESJ) mostró una alta sensibilidad (100 %) y adecuada especificidad (89,09 %), un valor predictivo positivo del 85,88 % lo que le confiere adecuada validez. La confiabilidad y consistencia interna de la prueba son buenas, Alfa de Cronbach: 0,700, así como la concordancia de la ESJ inicial y la entrevista clínica de la segunda etapa del tamizaje (Kappa de 0.867, error estándar de 0.037 (p<0.001)). La reproducibilidad mostró un índice de Kappa de 0,645 en la sub muestra evaluada 20 días después. Conclusiones: la versión hispana del instrumento de Tamizaje Juvenil de la Universidad de Columbia tiene validez y confiabilidad adecuada para la detección de conducta suicida y signos de enfermedad mental en adolescentes.
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Introducción: El glaucoma representa la tercera causa de ceguera a nivel mundial y un diagnóstico oportuno requiere evaluar la excavación del nervio óptico que está relacionada con el área del mismo. Existen reportes de áreas grandes (macrodiscos) que pueden ser protectoras, mientras otros las asocian a susceptibilidad para glaucoma. Objetivo: Establecer si existe asociación entre macrodisco y glaucoma en individuos estudiados con Tomografía Optica Coherente (OCT ) en la Fundación Oftalmológica Nacional. Métodos: Estudio transversal de asociación que incluyó 25 ojos con glaucoma primario de ángulo abierto y 74 ojos sanos. A cada individuo se realizó examen oftalmológico, campo visual computarizado y OCT de nervio óptico. Se compararon por grupos áreas de disco óptico y número de macrodiscos, definidos según Jonas como un área de la media más dos desviaciones estándar y según Adabache como área ≥3.03 mm2 quien evaluó población Mexicana. Resultados: El área promedio de disco óptico fue 2,78 y 2,80 mm2 glaucoma Vs. sanos. De acuerdo al criterio de Jonas, se observó un macrodisco en el grupo sanos y según criterio de Adabache se encontraron ocho y veinticinco macrodiscos glaucoma Vs. sanos. (OR=0,92 IC95%=0.35 – 2.43). Discusión: No hubo diferencia significativa (P=0.870) en el área de disco entre los dos grupos y el porcentaje de macrodiscos para los dos grupos fue similar, aunque el bajo número de éstos no permitió concluir en términos estadísticos sobre la presencia de macrodisco y glaucoma.
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This paper describes the relationship between the executive and legislative branches during the first government of Alvaro Uribe Vélez. We will focus on reviewing the legislative output of each branch of power, along with the effectiveness and efficiency they showed as promoters of this production. We will review the impact they had on the legislative agenda setting and on the control of the legislative process itself, making a diachronic analysis in which each legislature is used as a unit. Thus, we will try to identify the presence (or not) of some kind of pattern interactions, and we will evaluate, at one hand, the existence of hierarchical and transactional trends, and, on the other, the different types of balances produced between them.
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En este estudio se realizó un análisis predictivo de la aparición de eventos adversos de los pacientes de una IPS de Bogotá, Mederi Hospital Universitario de Barrios Unidos (HUBU) durante el año 2013; relacionados con los indicadores de eficiencia hospitalaria (Porcentaje de ocupación hospitalaria, número de egresos hospitalarios, promedio de estancia hospitalaria, número de egresos de urgencias, promedio de estancia en urgencias). Los datos fueron exportados a una matriz de análisis de las variables cualitativas; fueron presentadas con frecuencias absolutas y relativas, las variables cuantitativas (edad, tiempos de estancia) fueron presentadas con media, desviaciones estándar. Se agruparon los datos de eventos adversos y de eficiencia hospitalaria en una nueva matriz que permitiera el análisis predictivo la nueva matriz fue exportada al software de modelación estadístico Eviews 6.5; se especificaron modelos predictivos multivariados para la variable número de eventos adversos, respecto de los indicadores de eficiencia hospitalaria y se estimaron las probabilidades de ocurrencia, análisis de correlación y multicolinealidad; los resultados se presentaron en tablas de estimación para cada modelo, se restringieron los eventos adversos prevenibles y no prevenibles información obtenida a través de un sistema de información que registra los factores relacionados con la ocurrencia de eventos adversos en salud, a través del sistema de reporte de eventos en salud, reporte en las historias clínicas, reporte individual, reporte por servicio, análisis de datos y estudios de caso, de la misma forma fueron extraídos los datos de eficiencia hospitalaria para el mismo periodo. El análisis y gestión de eventos adversos pretende establecer estrategias de mejoramiento continuo y análisis de resultados frente a los indicadores de eficiencia que permitan intervención de los factores de riesgo operativo de los servicios del Hospital Universitario de Barrios Unidos (HUBU), relacionados con eventos adversos en la atención de los pacientes en especial se debe enfocar en la gestión de los egresos de pacientes de acuerdo a los resultados obtenidos con el fin de alinearse y fortalecer las políticas de seguridad del paciente para brindar una atención integral con calidad y eficiencia, disminuyendo las quejas en la atención, las glosas, los riesgos jurídicos, de acuerdo al modelo predictivo estudiado.
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This paper uses Colombian household survey data collected over the period 1984-2005 to estimate Gini coe¢ cients along with their corresponding standard errors. We Önd a statistically signiÖcant increase in wage income inequality following the adoption of the liberalisation measures of the early 1990s, and mixed evidence during the recovery years that followed the economic recession of the late 1990s. We also Önd that in several cases the observed di§erences in the Gini coe¢ cients across cities have not been statistically signiÖcant.
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Innovació, emprenedoria i subcontractació són els pilars temàtics de la present tesi doctoral. L'ús del coneixement per part de les empreses representa l'element comú d'aquestes temàtiques. Les evidències empíriques provenen principalment del món empresarial, però es complementen amb les del món acadèmic com a principal proveïdor de coneixement a la societat actual, la finalitat de la qual és crear riquesa i benestar socioeconòmic. L'objectiu principal d'aquesta tesi doctoral és contribuir a les diferents àrees de recerca. La primera, gestió de la innovació, més concretament innovació organitzativa, reflexionant sobre la seva importància i monitorització a través d'enquestes. Tot seguit, un exemple d'innovació organitzativa -treball en equip- s'analitza en profunditat, així com també els seus determinants. La segona, analitza el procés de transició d'una universitat tradicional cap a una universitat emprenedora, començant per la fase de disseny fins a l'actualitat contemplant la seva funcionalitat i eficiència en el marc de les institucions públiques de recerca d'Europa. I la tercera, descriu les barreres que les empreses han de fer front a l'hora de cooperar, en general, i amb universitats, en particular. La mateixa mostra d'empreses gasela també serveix per analitzar la decisió de fer-o-comprar. El resum d'aquests resultats, les conclusions, així com les futures línies de recerca finalitzen el treball.
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Much of the published human factors work on risk is to do with safety and within this is concerned with prediction and analysis of human error and with human reliability assessment. Less has been published on human factors contributions to understanding and managing project, business, engineering and other forms of risk and still less jointly assessing risk to do with broad issues of ‘safety’ and broad issues of ‘production’ or ‘performance’. This paper contains a general commentary on human factors and assessment of risk of various kinds, in the context of the aims of ergonomics and concerns about being too risk averse. The paper then describes a specific project, in rail engineering, where the notion of a human factors case has been employed to analyse engineering functions and related human factors issues. A human factors issues register for potential system disturbances has been developed, prior to a human factors risk assessment, which jointly covers safety and production (engineering delivery) concerns. The paper concludes with a commentary on the potential relevance of a resilience engineering perspective to understanding rail engineering systems risk. Design, planning and management of complex systems will increasingly have to address the issue of making trade-offs between safety and production, and ergonomics should be central to this. The paper addresses the relevant issues and does so in an under-published domain – rail systems engineering work.
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The motion of a car is described using a stochastic model in which the driving processes are the steering angle and the tangential acceleration. The model incorporates exactly the kinematic constraint that the wheels do not slip sideways. Two filters based on this model have been implemented, namely the standard EKF, and a new filter (the CUF) in which the expectation and the covariance of the system state are propagated accurately. Experiments show that i) the CUF is better than the EKF at predicting future positions of the car; and ii) the filter outputs can be used to control the measurement process, leading to improved ability to recover from errors in predictive tracking.
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Although climate models have been improving in accuracy and efficiency over the past few decades, it now seems that these incremental improvements may be slowing. As tera/petascale computing becomes massively parallel, our legacy codes are less suitable, and even with the increased resolution that we are now beginning to use, these models cannot represent the multiscale nature of the climate system. This paper argues that it may be time to reconsider the use of adaptive mesh refinement for weather and climate forecasting in order to achieve good scaling and representation of the wide range of spatial scales in the atmosphere and ocean. Furthermore, the challenge of introducing living organisms and human responses into climate system models is only just beginning to be tackled. We do not yet have a clear framework in which to approach the problem, but it is likely to cover such a huge number of different scales and processes that radically different methods may have to be considered. The challenges of multiscale modelling and petascale computing provide an opportunity to consider a fresh approach to numerical modelling of the climate (or Earth) system, which takes advantage of the computational fluid dynamics developments in other fields and brings new perspectives on how to incorporate Earth system processes. This paper reviews some of the current issues in climate (and, by implication, Earth) system modelling, and asks the question whether a new generation of models is needed to tackle these problems.
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Models developed to identify the rates and origins of nutrient export from land to stream require an accurate assessment of the nutrient load present in the water body in order to calibrate model parameters and structure. These data are rarely available at a representative scale and in an appropriate chemical form except in research catchments. Observational errors associated with nutrient load estimates based on these data lead to a high degree of uncertainty in modelling and nutrient budgeting studies. Here, daily paired instantaneous P and flow data for 17 UK research catchments covering a total of 39 water years (WY) have been used to explore the nature and extent of the observational error associated with nutrient flux estimates based on partial fractions and infrequent sampling. The daily records were artificially decimated to create 7 stratified sampling records, 7 weekly records, and 30 monthly records from each WY and catchment. These were used to evaluate the impact of sampling frequency on load estimate uncertainty. The analysis underlines the high uncertainty of load estimates based on monthly data and individual P fractions rather than total P. Catchments with a high baseflow index and/or low population density were found to return a lower RMSE on load estimates when sampled infrequently than those with a tow baseflow index and high population density. Catchment size was not shown to be important, though a limitation of this study is that daily records may fail to capture the full range of P export behaviour in smaller catchments with flashy hydrographs, leading to an underestimate of uncertainty in Load estimates for such catchments. Further analysis of sub-daily records is needed to investigate this fully. Here, recommendations are given on load estimation methodologies for different catchment types sampled at different frequencies, and the ways in which this analysis can be used to identify observational error and uncertainty for model calibration and nutrient budgeting studies. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.