Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Advanced Aerogel Composites for Oil Remediation and Recovery

Oil spills in marine environments often damage marine and coastal life if not remediated rapidly and efficiently. In spite of the strict enforcement of environmental legislations (i.e., Oil Pollution Act 1990) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (June 1989; the second biggest oil spill in U.S. history), the Macondo well blowout disaster (April 2010) released 18 times more oil. Strikingly, the response methods used to contain and capture spilled oil after both accidents were nearly identical, note that more than two decades separate Exxon Valdez (1989) and Macondo well (2010) accidents.

The goal of this dissertation was to investigate new advanced materials (mechanically strong aerogel composite blankets-Cabot® Thermal Wrap™ (TW) and Aspen Aerogels® Spaceloft® (SL)), and their applications for oil capture and recovery to overcome the current material limitations in oil spill response methods. First, uptake of different solvents and oils were studied to answer the following question: do these blanket aerogel composites have competitive oil uptake compared to state-of-the-art oil sorbents (i.e., polyurethane foam-PUF)? In addition to their competitive mechanical strength (766, 380, 92 kPa for Spaceloft, Thermal Wrap, and PUF, respectively), our results showed that aerogel composites have three critical advantages over PUF: rapid (3-5 min.) and high (more than two times of PUF’s uptake) oil uptake, reusability (over 10 cycles), and oil recoverability (up to 60%) via mechanical extraction. Chemical-specific sorption experiments showed that the dominant uptake mechanism of aerogels is adsorption to the internal surface, with some contribution of absorption into the pore space.

Second, we investigated the potential environmental impacts (energy and chemical burdens) associated with manufacturing, use, and disposal of SL aerogel and PUF to remove the oil (i.e., 1 m3 oil) from a location (i.e., Macondo well). Different use (single and multiple use) and end of life (landfill, incinerator, and waste-to-energy) scenarios were assessed, and our results demonstrated that multiple use, and waste-to-energy choices minimize the energy and material use of SL aerogel. Nevertheless, using SL once and disposing via landfill still offers environmental and cost savings benefits relative to PUF, and so these benefits are preserved irrespective of the oil-spill-response operator choices.

To inform future aerogel manufacture, we investigated the different laboratory-scale aerogel fabrication technologies (rapid supercritical extraction (RSCE), CO2 supercritical extraction (CSCE), alcohol supercritical extraction (ASCE)). Our results from anticipatory LCA for laboratory-scaled aerogel fabrication demonstrated that RSCE method offers lower cumulative energy and ecotoxicity impacts compared to conventional aerogel fabrication methods (CSCE and ASCE).

The final objective of this study was to investigate different surface coating techniques to enhance oil recovery by modifying the existing aerogel surface chemistries to develop chemically responsive materials (switchable hydrophobicity in response to a CO2 stimulus). Our results showed that studied surface coating methods (drop casting, dip coating, and physical vapor deposition) were partially successful to modify surface with CO2 switchable chemical (tributylpentanamidine), likely because of the heterogeneous fiber structure of the aerogel blankets. A possible solution to these non-uniform coatings would be to include switchable chemical as a precursor during the gel preparation to chemically attach the switchable chemical to the pores of the aerogel.

Taken as a whole, the implications of this work are that mechanical deployment and recovery of aerogel composite blankets is a viable oil spill response strategy that can be deployed today. This will ultimately enable better oil uptake without the uptake of water, potential reuse of the collected oil, reduced material and energy burdens compared to competitive sorbents (e.g., PUF), and reduced occupational exposure to oiled sorbents. In addition, sorbent blankets and booms could be deployed in coastal and open-ocean settings, respectively, which was previously impossible.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and reproductive properties of the benthic copepod Tigriopus japonicus and gastropod Babylonia japonica in a laboratory experiment

We investigated the effects of elevated pCO2 in seawater both on the acute mortality and the reproductive properties of the benthic copepod Tigriopus japonicus and gastropod Babylonia japonica with the purpose of accumulating basic data for assessing potential environmental impacts of sub-sea geological storage of anthropogenic CO2 in Japan. Acute tests showed that nauplii of T. japonicus have a high tolerance to elevated pCO2 environments. Full life cycle tests on T. japonicus indicated NOEC = 5800 µatm and LOEC = 37,000 µatm. Adult B. japonica showed remarkable resistance to elevated pCO2 in the acute tests. Embryonic development of B. japonica showed a NOEC = 1500 µatm and LOEC = 5400 µatm. T. japonicus showed high resistance to elevated pCO2 throughout the life cycle and B. japonica are rather sensitive during the veliger stage when they started to form their shells.

Policy mixes for resource efficiency – conceptual issues, design and assessment challenges

Since the 1950s the global consumption of natural resources has skyrocketed, both in magnitude and in the range of resources used. Closely coupled with emissions of greenhouse gases, land consumption, pollution of environmental media, and degradation of ecosystems, as well as with economic development, increasing resource use is a key issue to be addressed in order to keep the planet Earth in a safe and just operating space. This requires thinking about absolute reductions in resource use and associated environmental impacts, and, when put in the context of current re-focusing on economic growth at the European level, absolute decoupling, i.e., maintaining economic development while absolutely reducing resource use and associated environmental impacts. Changing behavioural, institutional and organisational structures that lock-in unsustainable resource use is, thus, a formidable challenge as existing world views, social practices, infrastructures, as well as power structures, make initiating change difficult. Hence, policy mixes are needed that will target different drivers in a systematic way. When designing policy mixes for decoupling, the effect of individual instruments on other drivers and on other instruments in a mix should be considered and potential negative effects be mitigated. This requires smart and time-dynamic policy packaging. This Special Issue investigates the following research questions: What is decoupling and how does it relate to resource efficiency and environmental policy? How can we develop and realize policy mixes for decoupling economic development from resource use and associated environmental impacts? And how can we do this in a systemic way, so that all relevant dimensions and linkages—including across economic and social issues, such as production, consumption, transport, growth and wellbeing­—are taken into account? In addressing these questions, the overarching goals of this Special Issue are to: address the challenges related to more sustainable resource-use; contribute to the development of successful policy tools and practices for sustainable development and resource efficiency (particularly through the exploration of socio-economic, scientific, and integrated aspects of sustainable development); and inform policy debates and policy-making. The Special Issue draws on findings from the EU and other countries to offer lessons of international relevance for policy mixes for more sustainable resource-use, with findings of interest to policy makers in central and local government and NGOs, decision makers in business, academics, researchers, and scientists.

Measuring Solar Energy Potentials in Residential Environments: A Comparative Study of Three Neighbourhoods in Kingston, Ontario

Photovoltaic (PV) systems offer a way to generate electricity locally in an urban setting while avoiding the environmental impacts of more widely used energy sources such as oil, coal, nuclear and natural gas. This report attempts to measure the benefits of incorporating solar technologies into urban residential land uses and identifies challenges to their widespread use by comparing implementation among three distinct residential neighbourhoods common to Canadian cities. The City of Kingston, Ontario is used as the location for this study.

The role of paradigm analysis in the development of policies for a resource efficient economy

Policy makers are often called upon to navigate between scientists’ urgent calls for long-term concerted action to reduce the environmental impacts due to resource use, and the public’s concerns over policies that threaten lifestyles or jobs. Against these political challenges, resource efficiency policy making is often a changeable and even chaotic process, which has fallen short of the political ambitions set by democratically elected governments. This article examines the importance of paradigms in understanding how the public collectively responds to new policy proposals, such as those developed within the project DYNAmic policy MiXes for absolute decoupling of environmental impact of EU resource use from economic growth (DYNAMIX). The resulting proposed approach provides a framework to understand how different concerns and worldviews converge within public discourse, potentially resulting in paradigm change. Thus an alternative perspective on how resource efficiency policy can be development is proposed, which envisages early policies to lay the ground for future far-reaching policies, by altering the underlying paradigm context in which the public receive and respond to policy. The article concludes by arguing that paradigm change is more likely if the policy is conceived, framed, designed, analyzed, presented, and evaluated from the worldview or paradigm pathway that it seeks to create (i.e. the destination paradigm).

‘Black Settlers’: Hybridity, Neoliberalism and Ecosystemic Change Among Tonga Farmers of Southern Zambia, 1964-2008

This dissertation examines a process of indigenous accumulation among Tonga farmers in Zambia’s Southern Province. In the 1970s multiple authors concluded that capitalist farmers had emerged among Tonga agro-pastoralists, predominantly within private titled holdings. Relying on archival research, newspapers, secondary sources and extensive oral testimony this thesis fills a 35-year gap on the topic, providing insights into the social and environmental impacts of neoliberal policy among African peasants and capitalist farmers. In contrast to dominant narratives of the post-independence period, this study argues that Zambia did experience a developmental process post-independence, which saw significant achievements made in the agricultural sector, including the doubling of national cattle stocks. The data reveals a painful process of disarticulation beginning in the late 1980s. Following neoliberal adjustment, we observe significant heterogeneity in production systems, some regional specialization, and processes of migration. Most importantly, the thesis uncovers processes of overwhelming ecosystemic change that contributed to livestock epidemics of severe scale and scope. Amazingly, this went largely undocumented because of the simultaneous crisis of the state, which left the national statistics office and other state bodies incapable of functioning from the late 1980s into the 2000s. In response, the Zambian state has introduced a number of neodevelopmental initiatives in the sector, yet the lack of animal traction remained up to 2008 and agricultural production declined, while more capitalized farmers (largely white, and/or with foreign direct investment) have become more significant players in the country. This thesis provides compelling evidence to challenge dominant economic thinking of the Washington institutions as well as many of the common Marxian formulations.

The expansion of soybean cultivation in Campeche, México: Problematic and perspectives

The soybean is the grain in which greater food dependency has Mexico, reason why as of 2008, the government has promoted his culture, granting excellent subsidies, as much to producers as to buyers of the grain, thus contributing to a recent process of expansion in certain states, as it happens in Campeche. The objetive of this article is the analysis of the characteristics and effects of those supports, as well as of the rest of factors that until today they have taken to the producers of the mentioned state to initiate or to expand the cultivation of the soybean. The findings of the investigation reveal that although the producers have improved their levels of income, the process is vulnerable, as it depends on variables like the governmental supports, the international prices of the soybean and exchange rate. Although the study of the negative effects of genetically modified soybeans (GM) in other areas (environment, biodiversity, deforestation, human and animal health) is not the purpose of this investigation, some information will be provided, as on the conflict between soybean producers and beekeepers in the state of Campeche.

La Seguridad Energética y la Estrategia Global de Seguridad de la Unión Europea

El presente artículo plantea una definición ampliada del concepto de seguridad energética, yendo más allá del concepto clásico establecido por la Agencia Internacional de la Energía, incorporando cuestiones relativas a la eficiencia energética, la aceptabilidad del modelo energético y los retos que impone el cambio climático, pero sin perder de perspectiva las exigencias y las dinámicas competitivas económicas globales. Sobre la base de este concepto ampliado, se examina la evolución de la seguridad energética en el marco de la Unión Europea, con una atención particular a cómo se concibe la seguridad energética en la Estrategia Global de Seguridad de 2016.

Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessment for the Production of Green Composites

Botanically, green composites belong to an economically important seed plant family that includes maize, wheat, rice, and sorghum known as Saccharum offi cinarum. There are so many natural fibers available in the environment such as rice husk, hemp fibers, flax fibers, bamboo fibers, coconut fiber, coconut coir, grawia optiva and many others also. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a process to estimate the environmental feature and potential impacts related to a product, by organizing a directory of pertinent inputs and outputs of a product system, assessing the potential environmental impacts related with the said inputs and outputs, explaining the results of the inventory analysis and impact evaluation phases in connection to the objectives of the study. Particularly Bagasse, an agricultural residue not only becomes a problem from the environmental point of view, but also affects the profitability of the sugarcane industries. This chapter discusses the properties, processing methods and various other aspects including economic and environmental aspects related to green composites.

Do Changes in Current Flow as a Result of Arrays of Tidal Turbines Have an Effect on Benthic Communities?

Arrays of tidal energy converters have the potential to provide clean renewable energy for future generations. Benthic communities may, however, be affected by changes in current speeds resulting from arrays of tidal converters located in areas characterised by strong currents. Current speed, together with bottom type and depth, strongly influence benthic community distributions; however the interaction of these factors in controlling benthic dynamics in high energy environments is poorly understood. The Strangford Lough Narrows, the location of SeaGen, the world’s first single full-scale, grid-compliant tidal energy extractor, is characterised by spatially heterogenous high current flows. A hydrodynamic model was used to select a range of benthic community study sites that had median flow velocities between 1.5–2.4 m/s in a depth range of 25–30 m. 25 sites were sampled for macrobenthic community structure using drop down video survey to test the sensitivity of the distribution of benthic communities to changes in the flow field. A diverse range of species were recorded which were consistent with those for high current flow environments and corresponding to very tide-swept faunal communities in the EUNIS classification. However, over the velocity range investigated, no changes in benthic communities were observed. This suggested that the high physical disturbance associated with the high current flows in the Strangford Narrows reflected the opportunistic nature of the benthic species present with individuals being continuously and randomly affected by turbulent forces and physical damage. It is concluded that during operation, the removal of energy by marine tidal energy arrays in the far-field is unlikely to have a significant effect on benthic communities in high flow environments. The results are of major significance to developers and regulators in the tidal energy industry when considering the environmental impacts for site licences.