Population projection for Namibia 2011-2020 - With an estimation of the impact of HIV/AIDS

This study presents a population projection for Namibia for years 2011–2020. In many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, including Namibia, the population growth is still continuing even though the fertility rates have declined. However, many of these countries suffer from a large HIV epidemic that is slowing down the population growth. In Namibia, the epidemic has been severe. Therefore, it is important to assess the effect of HIV/AIDS on the population of Namibia in the future. Demographic research on Namibia has not been very extensive, and data on population is not widely available. According to the studies made, fertility has been shown to be generally declining and mortality has been significantly increasing due to AIDS. Previous population projections predict population growth for Namibia in the near future, yet HIV/AIDS is affecting the future population developments. For the projection constructed in this study, data on population is taken from the two most recent censuses, from 1991 and 2001. Data on HIV is available from HIV Sentinel Surveys 1992–2008, which test pregnant women for HIV in antenatal clinics. Additional data are collected from different sources and recent studies. The projection is made with software (EPP and Spectrum) specially designed for developing countries with scarce data. The projection includes two main scenarios which have different assumptions concerning the development of the HIV epidemic. In addition, two hypothetical scenarios are made: the first considering the case where HIV epidemic would never have existed and the second considering the case where HIV treatment would never have existed. The results indicate population growth for Namibia. Population in the 2001 census was 1.83 million and is projected to result in 2.38/2.39 million in 2020 in the first two scenarios. Without HIV, population would be 2.61 million and without treatment 2.30 million in 2020. Urban population is growing faster than rural. Even though AIDS is increasing mortality, the past high fertility rates still keep young adult age groups quite large. The HIV epidemic shows to be slowing down, but it is still increasing the mortality of the working-aged population. The initiation of HIV treatment in 2004 in the public sector seems to have had an effect on many projected indicators, diminishing the impact of HIV on the population. For example, the rise of mortality is slowing down.

Impact of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries : a comparative study of Kenya and Zambia

This research investigates the impacts of agricultural market liberalization on food security in developing countries and it evaluates the supply perspective of food security. This research theme is applied on the agricultural sector in Kenya and in Zambia by studying the role policies played in the maize sub-sector. An evaluation of selected policies introduced at the beginning of the 1980s is made, as well as an assessment of whether those policies influenced maize output. A theoretical model of agricultural production is then formulated to reflect cereal production in a developing country setting. This study begins with a review of the general framework and the aims of the structural adjustment programs and proceeds to their application in the maize sector in Kenya and Zambia. A literature review of the supply and demand synthesis of food security is presented with examples from various developing countries. Contrary to previous studies on food security, this study assesses two countries with divergent economic orientations. Agricultural sector response to economic and institutional policies in different settings is also evaluated. Finally, a dynamic time series econometric model is applied to assess the effects of policy on maize output. The empirical findings suggest a weak policy influence on maize output, but the precipitation and acreage variables stand out as core determinants of maize output. The policy dimension of acreage and how markets influence it is not discussed at length in this study. Due to weak land rights and tenure structures in these countries, the direct impact of policy change on land markets cannot be precisely measured. Recurring government intervention during the structural policy implementation period impeded efficient functioning of input and output markets, particularly in Zambia. Input and output prices of maize and fertilizer responded more strongly in Kenya than in Zambia, where the state often ceded to public pressure by revoking pertinent policy measures. These policy interpretations are based on the response of policy variables which are more responsive in Kenya than in Zambia. According the obtained regression results, agricultural markets in general, and the maize sub-sector in particular, responded more positively to implemented policies in Kenya, than in Zambia, which supported a more socialist economic system. It is observed in these results that in order for policies to be effective, sector and regional dimensions need to be considered. The regional and sector dimensions were not taken into account in the formulation and implementation of structural adjustment policies in the 1980s. It can be noted that countries with vibrant economic structures and institutions fared better than those which had a firm, socially founded system.

The impact of FSC certification on timber tree regeneration and floristic composition in Honduran community forests

Forest certification has been put forward as a means to improve the sustainability of forest management in the tropical countries, where traditional environmental regulation has been inefficient in controlling forest degradation and deforestation. In these countries, the role of communities as managers of the forest resources is rapidly increasing. However, only a fraction of tropical community forests have been certified and little is known about the impacts of certification in these systems. Two areas in Honduras where community-managed forest operations had received FSC certifications were studied. Río Cangrejal represents an area with a longer history of use, whereas Copén is a more recent forest operation. Ecological sustainability was assessed through comparing timber tree regeneration and floristic composition between certified, conventionally managed and natural forests. Data on woody vegetation and environmental conditions was collected within logging gaps and natural treefall gaps. The regeneration success of shade-tolerant timber tree species was lower in certified than in conventionally managed forests in Río Cangrejal. Furthermore, the floristic composition was more natural-like in the conventionally managed than the certified forests. However, the environmental conditions indicated reduced logging disturbance in the certified forests. Data from Copén demonstrated that the regeneration success of light-demanding timber species was higher in the certified than the unlogged forests. In spite of this, the most valuable timber species Swietenia macrophylla was not regenerating successfully in the certified forests, due to rapid gap closure. The results indicate that pre-certification loggings and forest fragmentation may have a stronger impact on forest regeneration than current, certified management practices. The focus in community forests under low-intensive logging should be directed toward landscape connectivity and the restoration of degraded timber species, instead of reducing mechanical logging damage. Such actions are dependent on better recognition of resource rights, and improving the status of small Southern producers in the markets of certified wood products.

Fast- and drift-ice communities in the Bothnian Bay and the impact of UVA radiation on the Baltic Sea ice ecology

The aim of this thesis was to study ecology of Baltic Sea ice from two perspectives. In the first two studies, sea-ice ecology from riverine-influenced fast ice to drift ice in the Bothnian Bay was investigated, whereas the last two studies focus on the sensitivity of sea-ice bacteria and algae to UVA examined in situ. The seasonal sea ice cover is one of the main characteristics of the Baltic Sea, and despite the brackish parental water, the ice structure is similar to polar ice with saline brine inclusions, the sea ice habitat. The decreasing seawater salinity from the northern Baltic Sea to the Bothnian Bay translates to decreasing brine volumes along the gradient, governing the size and community structure of the food webs in ice. However, the drift and fast ice in the Bothnian Bay may differ greatly in this sense, as drift ice may have been formed at more southern locations. Rafting and the formation of snow ice are common processes in the ice field of the Bothnian Bay. As evidenced in this thesis, rafting altered the vertical distribution of organisms and snow-ice formation provided habitable space in the better-illuminated, nitrogen-rich surface layer. The divergence between fast and drift ice became apparent at the more advanced stages, and chlorophyte biomass decreased from fast to drift ice, while the opposite held true for protozoan and metazoan biomass. The brine volumes affected the communities somewhat, and a higher percentage of flagellate species was generally linked to lower brine volumes, whereas chain-forming diatoms were mostly concentrated in layers with larger brine volumes. These results add to knowledge of the ecological significance of the ice cover lasting up to 7 months per year in this area. Sea-ice food webs are generally light-limited, but while increasing light irradiances typically enhance the primary production and further, the secondary production in sea ice, any increase in solar radiation also includes an increase in harmful UVA radiation. The Baltic Sea ice microbial communities were clearly sensitive to UVA and the responses were strongly linked to the earlier light history, as well as to the solar irradiances they were exposed to. The increased biomass of chlorophytes and pennate diatoms, when UVA was excluded, indicates that their normally minor contribution to the biomass in the upper layers of sea ice might be partly dictated by UVA. The effects of UVA on bacterial production in Baltic Sea ice mostly followed the responses in algal growth, but occasionally the exposure to UVA even enhanced the bacterial production. The dominant bacterial class, Flavobacteria, seemed to be UVA-tolerant, whereas all the Alpha-, Beta- and Gammaproteobacteria present in the surface layer showed UVA sensitivity. These results indicate that changes in the light field of ice may alter the community structure and affect the functioning of ice food webs, and are of importance when the effects of thinning of the ice cover are assessed.

The phenomenon of oligarchy in Russia and its impact on Russian transition

Nowadays any analysis of Russian economy is incomplete without taking into account the phenomenon of oligarchy. Russian oligarchs appeared after the fall of the Soviet Union and are represented by wealthy businessmen who control a huge part of natural resources enterprises and have a big political influence. Oligarchs’ shares in some natural resources industries reach even 70-80%. Their role in Russian economy is big without any doubts, however there has been very little economic analysis done. The aim of this work is to examine Russian oligarchy on micro and macro levels, its role in Russia’s transition and the possible positive and negative outcomes from this phenomenon. For this purpose the work presents two theoretical models. The first part of this thesis work examines the role of oligarchs on micro level, concentrating on the question whether the oligarchs can be more productive owners than other types of owners. To answer the question this part presents a model based on the article “Are oligarchs productive? Theory and evidence” by Y. Gorodnichenko and Y. Grygorenko. It is followed by empirical test based on the works of S. Guriev and A. Rachinsky. The model predicts oligarchs to invest more in the productivity of their enterprises and have higher returns on capital, therefore be more productive owners. According to the empirical test, oligarchs were found to outperform other types of owners, however it is not defined whether the productivity gains offset losses in tax revenue. The second part of the work concentrates on the role of oligarchy on macro level. More precisely, it examines the assumption that the depression after 1998 crises in Russia was caused by the oligarchs’ behavior. This part presents a theoretical model based on the article “A macroeconomic model of Russian transition: The role of oligarchic property rights” by S. Braguinsky and R. Myerson, where the special type of property rights is introduced. After the 1998 crises oligarchs started to invest all their resources abroad to protect themselves from political risks, which resulted in the long depression phase. The macroeconomic model shows, that better protection of property rights (smaller political risk) or/and higher outside investing could reduce the depression. Taking into account this result, the government policy can change the oligarchs’ behavior to be more beneficial for the Russian economy and make the transition faster.

Impact of dust on solar photovoltaic (PV) performance: Research status, challenges and recommendations

The peaking of most oil reserves and impending climate change are critically driving the adoption of solar photovoltaic's (PV) as a sustainable renewable and eco-friendly alternative. Ongoing material research has yet to find a breakthrough in significantly raising the conversion efficiency of commercial PV modules. The installation of PV systems for optimum yield is primarily dictated by its geographic location (latitude and available solar insolation) and installation design (tilt, orientation and altitude) to maximize solar exposure. However, once these parameters have been addressed appropriately, there are other depending factors that arise in determining the system performance (efficiency and output). Dust is the lesser acknowledged factor that significantly influences the performance of the PV installations. This paper provides an appraisal on the current status of research in studying the impact of dust on PV system performance and identifies challenges to further pertinent research. A framework to understand the various factors that govern the settling/assimilation of dust and likely mitigation measures have been discussed in this paper. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of energy quantisation in single electron transistor island on hybrid complementary metal oxide semiconductor-single electron transistor integrated circuits

For the first time, the impact of energy quantisation in single electron transistor (SET) island on the performance of hybrid complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS)-SET transistor circuits has been studied. It has been shown through simple analytical models that energy quantisation primarily increases the Coulomb Blockade area and Coulomb Blockade oscillation periodicity of the SET device and thus influences the performance of hybrid CMOS-SET circuits. A novel computer aided design (CAD) framework has been developed for hybrid CMOS-SET co-simulation, which uses Monte Carlo (MC) simulator for SET devices along with conventional SPICE for metal oxide semiconductor devices. Using this co-simulation framework, the effects of energy quantisation have been studied for some hybrid circuits, namely, SETMOS, multiband voltage filter and multiple valued logic circuits. Although energy quantisation immensely deteriorates the performance of the hybrid circuits, it has been shown that the performance degradation because of energy quantisation can be compensated by properly tuning the bias current of the current-biased SET devices within the hybrid CMOS-SET circuits. Although this study is primarily done by exhaustive MC simulation, effort has also been put to develop first-order compact model for SET that includes energy quantisation effects. Finally, it has been demonstrated that one can predict the SET behaviour under energy quantisation with reasonable accuracy by slightly modifying the existing SET compact models that are valid for metallic devices having continuous energy states.

Antarctic ice shelf melting and its impact on the global sea ice-ocean system

Earth s ice shelves are mainly located in Antarctica. They cover about 44% of the Antarctic coastline and are a salient feature of the continent. Antarctic ice shelf melting (AISM) removes heat from and inputs freshwater into the adjacent Southern Ocean. Although playing an important role in the global climate, AISM is one of the most important components currently absent in the IPCC climate model. In this study, AISM is introduced into a global sea ice-ocean climate model ORCA2-LIM, following the approach of Beckmann and Goosse (2003; BG03) for the thermodynamic interaction between the ice shelf and ocean. This forms the model ORCA2-LIM-ISP (ISP: ice shelf parameterization), in which not only all the major Antarctic ice shelves but also a number of minor ice shelves are included. Using these two models, ORCA2-LIM and ORCA2-LIM-ISP, the impact of addition of AISM and increasing AISM have been investigated. Using the ORCA2-LIM model, numerical experiments are performed to investigate the sensitivity of the polar sea ice cover and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport through Drake Passage (DP) to the variations of three sea ice parameters, namely the thickness of newly formed ice in leads (h0), the compressive strength of ice (P*), and the turning angle in the oceanic boundary layer beneath sea ice (θ). It is found that the magnitudes of h0 and P* have little impact on the seasonal sea ice extent, but lead to large changes in the seasonal sea ice volume. The variation in turning angle has little impact on the sea ice extent and volume in the Arctic but tends to reduce them in the Antarctica when ignored. The magnitude of P* has the least impact on the DP transport, while the other two parameters have much larger influences. Numerical results from ORCA2-LIM and ORCA2-LIM-ISP are analyzed to investigate how the inclusion of AISM affects the representation of the Southern Ocean hydrography. Comparisons with data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) show that the addition of AISM significantly improves the simulated hydrography. It not only warms and freshens the originally too cold and too saline bottom water (AABW), but also warms and enriches the salinity of the originally too cold and too fresh warm deep water (WDW). Addition of AISM also improves the simulated stratification. The close agreement between the simulation with AISM and the observations suggests that the applied parameterization is an adequate way to include the effect of AISM in a global sea ice-ocean climate model. We also investigate the models capability to represent the sea ice-ocean system in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic regions. Our study shows both models (with and without AISM) can successfully reproduce the main features of the sea ice-ocean system. However, both tend to overestimate the ice flux through the Nares Strait, produce a lower temperature and salinity in the Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, and miss the deep convection in the Labrador Sea. These deficiencies are mainly attributed to the artificial enlargement of the Nares Strait in the model. In this study, the impact of increasing AISM on the global sea ice-ocean system is thoroughly investigated. This provides a first idea regarding changes induced by increasing AISM. It is shown that the impact of increasing AISM is global and most significant in the Southern Ocean. There, increasing AISM tends to freshen the surface water, to warm the intermediate and deep waters, and to freshen and warm the bottom water. In addition, increasing AISM also leads to changes in the mixed layer depths (MLD) in the deep convection sites in the Southern Ocean, deepening in the Antarctic continental shelf while shoaling in the ACC region. Furthermore, increasing AISM influences the current system in the Southern Ocean. It tends to weaken the ACC, and strengthen the Antarctic coastal current (ACoC) as well as the Weddell Gyre and the Ross Gyre. In addition to the ocean system, increasing AISM also has a notable impact on the Antarctic sea ice cover. Due to the cooling of seawater, sea ice concentration and thickness generally become higher. In austral winter, noticeable increases in sea ice concentration mainly take place near the ice edge. In regards with sea ice thickness, large increases are mainly found along the coast of the Weddell Sea, the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas, and the Ross Sea. The overall thickening of sea ice leads to a larger volume of sea ice in Antarctica. In the North Atlantic, increasing AISM leads to remarkable changes in temperature, salinity and density. The water generally becomes warmer, more saline and denser. The most significant warming occurs in the subsurface layer. In contrast, the maximum salinity increase is found at the surface. In addition, the MLD becomes larger along the Greenland-Scotland-Iceland ridge. Global teleconnections due to AISM are studied. The AISM signal is transported with the surface current: the additional freshwater from AISM tends to enhance the northward spreading of the surface water. As a result, more warm and saline water is transported from the tropical region to the North Atlantic Ocean, resulting in warming and salt enrichment there. It would take about 30 40 years to establish a systematic noticeable change in temperature, salinity and MLD in the North Atlantic Ocean according to this study. The changes in hydrography due to increasing AISM are compared with observations. Consistency suggests that increasing AISM is highly likely a major contributor to the recent observed changes in the Southern Ocean. In addition, the AISM might contribute to the salinity contrast between the North Atlantic and North Pacific, which is important for the global thermohaline circulation.

Impact of water drops onto the junction of a hydrophobic texture and a hydrophilic smooth surface

Wettability gradient surfaces play a significant role in control and manipulation of liquid drops. The present work deals with the analysis of water drops impacting onto the junction line between hydrophobic texture and hydrophilic smooth portions of a dual-textured substrate made using stainless steel material. The hydrophobic textured portion of the substrate comprised of unidirectional parallel groove-like and pillar-like structures of uniform dimensions. A high-speed video camera recorded the spreading and receding dynamics of impacting drops. The drop impact dynamics during the early inertia driven impact regime remains unaffected by the dual-texture feature of the substrate. A larger retraction speed of drop liquid observed on the hydrophobic portion of the substrate during the impact of low velocity drops makes the drop liquid on the higher wettability portion to advance further (secondary drop spreading). The net horizontal drop velocity towards the hydrophilic portion of the dual-textured substrate decreases with increasing drop impact velocity. The available experimental results suggest that the movement of bulk drop liquid away from the impact point during drop impact on the dual-textured substrate is larger for the impact of low inertia drops. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Toxicant distributions and impact models in environmental risk analysis of waste sites

Myrkyllisten aineiden jakaumat ja vaikutusmallit jätealueiden ympäristöriskien analyysissä.