Stops and bonanzas in the EU: Does being part of the Euro Area make a difference?

In this paper, we investigate whether being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza of capital flows. Our sample period is from 1995 until 2014. We identify these two phenomena and we evaluate which push and pull factors help predict the conditional probability of experiencing one of them. We find that most countries had significant capital inflows until 2008 and that there were more sudden stops during the recent financial crisis than in any other moment in our sample. The factors that better help forecast the conditional probability of a sudden stop are global uncertainty (represented by the push factor “Volatility Index”), and the domestic economic activity (pull factors “GDP growth” and “consumer confidence”). An indicator of country risk (pull factor “change in credit rating”) is the most significant one for predicting bonanzas. Ultimately, we find no evidence that being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza.

Trading the differences in expectations between the CDS and bond markets

This paper uses the framework developed by Vrugt (2010) to extract the recovery rate and term-structure of risk-neutral default probabilities implied in the cross-section of Portuguese sovereign bonds outstanding between March and August 2011. During this period the expectations on the recovery rate remain firmly anchored around 50 percent while the instantaneous default probability increases steadily from 6 to above 30 percent. These parameters are then used to calculate the fair-value of a 5-year and 10- year CDS contract. A credit-risk-neutral strategy is developed from the difference between the market price of a CDS of the same tenors and the fair-value calculated, yielding a sharpe ratio of 3.2

The refinancing of Cimpor- Case study

The present case is about the refinancing of Cimpor, a highly profitable Portuguese cement group that encounters a set of obstacles in its debt restructuring. The case is intended to be used in a Corporate Finance class and is divided in three distinct parts: a case A which presents a detailed description of the internal and external events that increased Cimpor’s refinancing risk, a case B which informs the audience of the outcome of the refinancing process, and a Teaching Note with suggested questions and answers to be used in class. Key words:

Capital requirements and loan market conditions insight into Portuguese Banking system (2004-2011)

Capital Requirements have been gaining importance in the current macroeconomic and financial environment and Portugal is no exception. Nonetheless, despite the several media articles on this subject, the associations with Loan Market Conditions, namely availability and pricing are still unstudied. Thus, this project adds to the existing literature a characterization of Portuguese four biggest banks on capital reporting and requirements fulfillment. It is concluded that banks under analysis need to increase capital and that there is an association between the variables under study: Share Capital is negatively correlated with Credit Volume, and it is positively correlated with Net Commercial Income.

Universal banks and corporate control: Evidence from the global syndicated loan market

We investigate the effects of bank control over borrower firms whether by representation on boards of directors or by the holding of shares through bank asset management divisions. Using a large sample of syndicated loans, we find that banks are more likely to act as lead arrangers in loans when they exert some control over the borrower firm. Bank-firm governance links are associated with higher loan spreads during the 2003-2006 credit boom, but lower spreads during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Additionally, these links mitigate credit rationing effects during the crisis. The results are robust to several methods to correct for the endogeneity of the bank- firm governance link. Our evidence, consistent with intertemporal smoothing of loan rates, suggests there are costs and benefits from banks’ involvement in firm governance.

O crédito bancário

The aim of the present dissertation is the analysis of the regime established by Decree-Law No. 227/2012 of 25 October. Reflecting on the referred regime, as a measure to prevent and manage situations of failure to meet the obligations assumed by consumers, the study focuses on the plan of action for debt risk and the extrajudicial procedure to regularize situations of default. The main point is to analyze the purpose and the scope of the regime, and to discuss some key-concepts relevant to its application. In addition, another two figures presented in the regime of Decree-Law No. 227/2012 are considered, namely: the Credit Mediator and the Extrajudicial Network for Bank Clients Support, making reference to their role and the scope of their intervention. Finally, along the work on the present Decree-Law, the some international practices are also analyzed, making reference to the problem of financial illiteracy, and mentioning three foreign examples regarding the adopted solutions to the problem of different legal systems, with reference to consumers’ over-indebtedness.

O incumprimento do contrato de crédito ao consumo pelo consumidor

Consumer relations, established between the Consumer and the Creditor, which carry a consequent inequality of contractual positioning between the parties, have been pushing the legislator to adopt more rigid regulations with regard to lending for the purchase of goods or services of consum issues. In this sense, the Decree-Law 359/91 was approved, meanwhile repealed by the Decree-Law 133/2009, which regulates the consumer credit agreement’s regime in the portuguese legal system. Through this contract, the financier makes available to the consumer a certain amount of money, which the consumer must repay, plus the respective remuneration (interest) and other charges, according to a refund plan agreed by the parties. The consumer will be in delay if he breaches this stipulation. In case of default, the creditor, notwithstanding, can choose to wait for the performance by the debtor, promote the loss of benefit of the term or the termination of the contract. From the outset it would seem that, in one way or another, the financier, by imposing a forced shortening of the contract duration initially agreed, will lose the right to remuneration for the provision of capital agreed, but not verified. Nevertheless, unlike presently, the previous regime allowed the parties to rule otherwise, being permitted to agree to the payment of interest of outstanding installments. On the other hand, in the consumer credit contract the principle of freedom of contractual provision of the parties is strongly mitigated by the special legislation, which prevents the waiver of rights by the consumer, and by the regime of general contractual terms, which restricts the freedom of the financier to stipulate the contractual content freely and the freedom of the consumer to negotiate. For all these reasons, associated with the growing need of credit resource to satisfy their needs of consumption, it is confirm the relevance of legislative intervention on consumers protection in the context of hiring credit.

Construção de uma responsabilidade europeia além-fronteiras

The suppression of internal border controls has led the European Union to establish a mechanism for determining the Member State responsible for examining each asylum application, with the main intention of deterring asylum seekers from lodging multiple applications and guaranteeing that it will be assessed by one of the States – the Dublin System. Even though it holds on a variety of criteria, the most commonly used is the country of first entrance in the EU. The growing migrating flows coming mainly from Northern Africa have thus resulted in an incommensurable burden over the border countries. Gradually, countries like Greece, Bulgaria and Italy have lost capability of providing adequate relief to all asylum seekers and the records of fundamental rights violations related to the provision of housing and basic needs or inhuman detention conditions started piling up. To prevent asylum seekers who had already displaced themselves to other Member States from being transferred back to countries where their human dignity is questionable, the European Court of Human Rights and the Court of Justice have developed a solid jurisprudence determining that when there is a risk of serious breach of fundamental rights all transfers to that country must halt, especially when it is identified with systemic deficiencies in the asylum system and procedures. This reflexion will go through the jurisprudence that influenced very recent legislative amendments, in order to identify which elements form part of the obligation not to transfer under the Dublin System. At last, we will critically analyze the new rising obligation, that has clearly proven insufficient in light of the international fundamental rights framework that the Member States and the EU are bound to respect, proposing substantial amendments with a view to reach a future marked by high solidarity and global responsibility from the European Union.

O incumprimento do contrato de crédito ao consumo pelo consumidor

Consumer relations, established between the Consumer and the Creditor, which carry a consequent inequality of contractual positioning between the parties, have been pushing the legislator to adopt more rigid regulations with regard to lending for the purchase of goods or services of consum issues. In this sense, the Decree-Law 359/91 was approved, meanwhile repealed by the Decree-Law 133/2009, which regulates the consumer credit agreement’s regime in the portuguese legal system. Through this contract, the financier makes available to the consumer a certain amount of money, which the consumer must repay, plus the respective remuneration (interest) and other charges, according to a refund plan agreed by the parties. The consumer will be in delay if he breaches this stipulation. In case of default, the creditor, notwithstanding, can choose to wait for the performance by the debtor, promote the loss of benefit of the term or the termination of the contract. From the outset it would seem that, in one way or another, the financier, by imposing a forced shortening of the contract duration initially agreed, will lose the right to remuneration for the provision of capital agreed, but not verified. Nevertheless, unlike presently, the previous regime allowed the parties to rule otherwise, being permitted to agree to the payment of interest of outstanding installments. On the other hand, in the consumer credit contract the principle of freedom of contractual provision of the parties is strongly mitigated by the special legislation, which prevents the waiver of rights by the consumer, and by the regime of general contractual terms, which restricts the freedom of the financier to stipulate the contractual content freely and the freedom of the consumer to negotiate. For all these reasons, associated with the growing need of credit resource to satisfy their needs of consumption, it is confirm the relevance of legislative intervention on consumers protection in the context of hiring credit.

Rating corporate groups a modelling experience

This paper aims to provide a model that allows BPI to measure the credit risk, through its rating scale, of the subsidiaries included in the corporate groups who are their clients. This model should be simple enough to be applied in practice, accurate, and must give consistent results in comparison to what have been the ratings given by the bank. The model proposed includes operational, strategic, and financial factors and ends up giving one of three results: no support, partial support, or full support from the holding to the subsidiary, and each of them translates in adjustments in each subsidiary’s credit rating. As it would be expectable, most of the subsidiaries should have the same credit rating of its parent company.

Bond portfolio diversification

Portfolio diversification benefits have been extensively documented and acknowledge in the literature since 1952. However, the majority of the studies have focus on an equity context, and only very few on bonds. The study purposed tries to understand and measure the diversification benefits for a pure bond portfolio by investing in securities with different credit risks, maturities and even geographies. Diversification benefits were achieved under the proposed model and some conclusions were withdrawn.

Code name

The present case-study concerns about the analysis of the sale of Banif Mais, the sub-holding of Banif Group for specialized credit activity, taking into account the bank’s financial situation in 2014. In 2011, Portugal was submitted to an external finance programme carried out by troika which imposed very restricted measures to the financial sector. Subsequently, Banif was not able to accomplish the required results having to appeal to Government financing, being under a recapitalization plan since 2012.

On project finance and the first road concession in Portugal

In broad sense, Project Financing1 as a mean of financing large scale infrastructural projects worldwide has had a steady growth in popularity for the last 20 years. This growth has been relatively unscathed from most economic cycles. However in the wake of the 2007 systemic Financial Crisis, Project Financing was also in trouble. The liquidity freeze and credit crunch that ensued affected all parties involved. Traditional Lenders, of this type of financial instrument, locked-in long-term contractual obligations, were severely hit with scarcity of funding compounded by rapidly increasing cost of funding. All the while, Banks were “rescued” by the concerted actions of Central Banks and other Multi-Lateral Agencies around the world but at the same time “stressed” by upcoming regulatory effort (Basel Committee). This impact resulted in specific changes to this type of long-term financing. Changes such as Commercial Banks’ increased risk aversion; pricing increase and maturities decrease of credit facilities; enforcement of Market Disruption Event clauses; partial responsibility for project risk by Multilateral Agencies; and adoption of utility-like availability payments in other industrial sectors such as transportation and even social infrastructure. To the extent possible, this report is then divided in three parts. First, it begins with a more instructional part, touching academic literature (theory) and giving the Banks perspective (practice), but mostly as an overview of Project Finance for awareness’ sake. The renowned Harvard Business School professor – Benjamin Esty, states2 that Project Finance is a “relatively unexplored territory for both empirical and theoretical research” which means that academic research efforts are lagging the practice of Project Finance. Second, the report presents a practical case regarding the first Road Concession in Portugal in 1998 ending with the lessons learned 10 years after Financial Close. Lastly, the report concludes with the analysis of the current trends and changes to the industry post Financial Crisis of the late 2000’s. To achieve this I’ll reference relevant papers, books on the subject, online articles and my own experience in the Project Finance Department at a major Portuguese Investment Bank. Regarding the latter, with the signing of a confidentiality agreement, I’m duly omitting sensitive and proprietary bank information.

Business intelligence in banking: A literature analysis from 2002 to 2013 using Text Mining and latent Dirichlet allocation

telligence applications for the banking industry. Searches were performed in relevant journals resulting in 219 articles published between 2002 and 2013. To analyze such a large number of manuscripts, text mining techniques were used in pursuit for relevant terms on both business intelligence and banking domains. Moreover, the latent Dirichlet allocation modeling was used in or- der to group articles in several relevant topics. The analysis was conducted using a dictionary of terms belonging to both banking and business intelli- gence domains. Such procedure allowed for the identification of relationships between terms and topics grouping articles, enabling to emerge hypotheses regarding research directions. To confirm such hypotheses, relevant articles were collected and scrutinized, allowing to validate the text mining proce- dure. The results show that credit in banking is clearly the main application trend, particularly predicting risk and thus supporting credit approval or de- nial. There is also a relevant interest in bankruptcy and fraud prediction. Customer retention seems to be associated, although weakly, with targeting, justifying bank offers to reduce churn. In addition, a large number of ar- ticles focused more on business intelligence techniques and its applications, using the banking industry just for evaluation, thus, not clearly acclaiming for benefits in the banking business. By identifying these current research topics, this study also highlights opportunities for future research.

Os contratos de crédito ao consumo e o sobreendividamento dos consumidores

Dissertação de mestrado em Direito dos Contratos e da Empresa