955 resultados para Cost estimate accuracy


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To obtain data on phytoplankton dynamics with improved spatial and temporal resolution, and at reduced cost, traditional phytoplankton monitoring methods have been supplemented with optical approaches. In this thesis, I have explored various fluorescence-based techniques for detection of phytoplankton abundance, taxonomy and physiology in the Baltic Sea. In algal cultures used in this thesis, the availability of nitrogen and light conditions caused changes in pigmentation, and consequently in light absorption and fluorescence properties of cells. In the Baltic Sea, physical environmental factors (e.g. mixing depth, irradiance and temperature) and related seasonal succession in the phytoplankton community explained a large part of the seasonal variability in the magnitude and shape of Chlorophyll a (Chla)-specific absorption. The variability in Chla-specific fluorescence was related to the abundance of cyanobacteria, the size structure of the phytoplankton community, and absorption characteristics of phytoplankton. Cyanobacteria show very low Chla-specific fluorescence. In the presence of eukaryotic species, Chla fluorescence describes poorly cyanobacteria. During cyanobacterial bloom in the Baltic Sea, phycocyanin fluorescence explained large part of the variability in Chla concentrations. Thus, both Chla and phycocyanin fluorescence were required to predict Chla concentration. Phycobilins are major light harvesting pigments for cyanobacteria. In the open Baltic Sea, small picoplanktonic cyanobacteria were the main source of phycoerythrin fluorescence and absorption signal. Large filamentous cyanobacteria, forming harmful blooms, were the main source of the phycocyanin fluorescence signal and typically their biomass and phycocyanin fluorescence were linearly related. Using phycocyanin fluorescence, dynamics of cyanobacterial blooms can be detected at high spatial and seasonal resolution not possible with other methods. Various taxonomic phytoplankton pigment groups can be separated by spectral fluorescence. I compared multivariate calibration methods for the retrieval of phytoplankton biomass in different taxonomic groups. Partial least squares regression method gave the closest predictions for all taxonomic groups, and the accuracy was adequate for phytoplankton bloom detection. Variable fluorescence has been proposed as a tool to study the physiological state of phytoplankton. My results from the Baltic Sea emphasize that variable fluorescence alone cannot be used to detect nutrient limitation of phytoplankton. However, when combined with experiments with active nutrient manipulation, and other nutrient limitation indices, variable fluorescence provided valuable information on the physiological responses of the phytoplankton community. This thesis found a severe limitation of a commercial fast repetition rate fluorometer, which couldn t detect the variable fluorescence of phycoerythrin-lacking cyanobacteria. For these species, the Photosystem II absorption of blue light is very low, and fluorometer excitation light did not saturate Photosystem II during a measurement. This thesis encourages the use of various in vivo fluorescence methods for the detection of bulk phytoplankton biomass, biomass of cyanobacteria, chemotaxonomy of phytoplankton community, and phytoplankton physiology. Fluorescence methods can support traditional phytoplankton monitoring by providing continuous measurements of phytoplankton, and thereby strengthen the understanding of the links between biological, chemical and physical processes in aquatic ecosystems.

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TO THE EDITOR: Kinner and colleagues described the high proportion of deaths among recently released prisoners in Australia...

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Provision of modern energy services for cooking (with gaseous fuels)and lighting (with electricity) is an essential component of any policy aiming to address health, education or welfare issues; yet it gets little attention from policy-makers. Secure, adequate, low-cost energy of quality and convenience is core to the delivery of these services. The present study analyses the energy consumption pattern of Indian domestic sector and examines the urban-rural divide and income energy linkage. A comprehensive analysis is done to estimate the cost for providing modern energy services to everyone by 2030. A public-private partnership-driven business model, with entrepreneurship at the core, is developed with institutional, financing and pricing mechanisms for diffusion of energy services. This approach, termed as EMPOWERS (entrepreneurship model for provision of wholesome energy-related basic services), if adopted, can facilitate large-scale dissemination of energy-efficient and renewable technologies like small-scale biogas/biofuel plants, and distributed power generation technologies to provide clean, safe, reliable and sustainable energy to rural households and urban poor. It is expected to integrate the processes of market transformation and entrepreneurship development involving government, NGOs, financial institutions and community groups as stakeholders. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.

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Background: The aging population is placing increasing demands on surgical services, simultaneously with a decreasing supply of professional labor and a worsening economic situation. Under growing financial constraints, successful operating room management will be one of the key issues in the struggle for technical efficiency. This study focused on several issues affecting operating room efficiency. Materials and methods: The current formal operating room management in Finland and the use of performance metrics and information systems used to support this management were explored using a postal survey. We also studied the feasibility of a wireless patient tracking system as a tool for managing the process. The reliability of the system as well as the accuracy and precision of its automatically recorded time stamps were analyzed. The benefits of a separate anesthesia induction room in a prospective setting were compared with the traditional way of working, where anesthesia is induced in the operating room. Using computer simulation, several models of parallel processing for the operating room were compared with the traditional model with respect to cost-efficiency. Moreover, international differences in operating room times for two common procedures, laparoscopic cholecystectomy and open lung lobectomy, were investigated. Results: The managerial structure of Finnish operating units was not clearly defined. Operating room management information systems were found to be out-of-date, offering little support to online evaluation of the care process. Only about half of the information systems provided information in real time. Operating room performance was most often measured by the number of procedures in a time unit, operating room utilization, and turnover time. The wireless patient tracking system was found to be feasible for hospital use. Automatic documentation of the system facilitated patient flow management by increasing process transparency via more available and accurate data, while lessening work for staff. Any parallel work flow model was more cost-efficient than the traditional way of performing anesthesia induction in the operating room. Mean operating times for two common procedures differed by 50% among eight hospitals in different countries. Conclusions: The structure of daily operative management of an operating room warrants redefinition. Performance measures as well as information systems require updating. Parallel work flows are more cost-efficient than the traditional induction-in-room model.

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It has long been argued that better timing precision allowed by satellites like Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) will allow us to measure the orbital eccentricity and the angle of periastron of some of the bright persistent high-mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs) and hence a possible measurement of apsidal motion in these system. Measuring the rate of apsidal motion allows one to estimate the apsidal motion constant of the mass losing companion star and hence allows for the direct testing of the stellar structure models for these giant stars present in the HMXBs. In the present paper, we use the archival RXTE data of two bright persistent sources, namely Cen X-3 and SMC X-1, to measure the very small orbital eccentricity and the angle of periastron. We find that the small variations in the pulse profiles of these sources, rather than the intrinsic time resolution provided by RXTE, limit the accuracy with which we can measure arrival time of the pulses from these sources. This influences the accuracy with which one can measure the orbital parameters, especially the very small eccentricity and the angle of periastron in these sources. The observations of SMC X-1 in the year 2000 were taken during the high-flux state of the source and we could determine the orbital eccentricity and omega using this data set.

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Swarm Intelligence techniques such as particle swarm optimization (PSO) are shown to be incompetent for an accurate estimation of global solutions in several engineering applications. This problem is more severe in case of inverse optimization problems where fitness calculations are computationally expensive. In this work, a novel strategy is introduced to alleviate this problem. The proposed inverse model based on modified particle swarm optimization algorithm is applied for a contaminant transport inverse model. The inverse models based on standard-PSO and proposed-PSO are validated to estimate the accuracy of the models. The proposed model is shown to be out performing the standard one in terms of accuracy in parameter estimation. The preliminary results obtained using the proposed model is presented in this work.

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At the beginning of 2008, I visited a watershed, located in Karkinatam village in the state of Karnataka, South India, where crops are intensively irrigated using groundwater. The water table had been depleted from a depth of 5 to 50 m in a large part of the area. Presently, 42% of a total of 158 water wells in the watershed are dry. Speaking with the farmers, I have been amazed to learn that they were drilling down to 500 m to tap water. This case is, of course, not isolated.

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The Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) a non destructive test procedure, has been in vogue for a long time now, for assessing the status of power and related transformers in service. An early indication of likely internal faults that may exist in Transformers has been seen to be revealed, to a reasonable degree of accuracy by the DGA. The data acquisition and subsequent analysis needs an expert in the concerned area to accurately assess the condition of the equipment. Since the presence of the expert is not always guaranteed, it is incumbent on the part of the power utilities to requisition a well planned and reliable artificial expert system to replace, at least in part, an expert. This paper presents the application of Ordered Ant Mner (OAM) classifier for the prediction of involved fault. Secondly, the paper also attempts to estimate the remaining life of the power transformer as an extension to the elapsed life estimation method suggested in the literature.

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Virtual Machine (VM) management is an obvious need in today's data centers for various management activities and is accomplished in two phases— finding an optimal VM placement plan and implementing that placement through live VM migrations. These phases result in two research problems— VM placement problem (VMPP) and VM migration scheduling problem (VMMSP). This research proposes and develops several evolutionary algorithms and heuristic algorithms to address the VMPP and VMMSP. Experimental results show the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed algorithms. Finally, a VM management framework has been proposed and developed to automate the VM management activity in cost-efficient way.

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Objective: We aimed to assess the impact of task demands and individual characteristics on threat detection in baggage screeners. Background: Airport security staff work under time constraints to ensure optimal threat detection. Understanding the impact of individual characteristics and task demands on performance is vital to ensure accurate threat detection. Method: We examined threat detection in baggage screeners as a function of event rate (i.e., number of bags per minute) and time on task across 4 months. We measured performance in terms of the accuracy of detection of Fictitious Threat Items (FTIs) randomly superimposed on X-ray images of real passenger bags. Results: Analyses of the percentage of correct FTI identifications (hits) show that longer shifts with high baggage throughput result in worse threat detection. Importantly, these significant performance decrements emerge within the first 10 min of these busy screening shifts only. Conclusion: Longer shift lengths, especially when combined with high baggage throughput, increase the likelihood that threats go undetected. Application: Shorter shift rotations, although perhaps difficult to implement during busy screening periods, would ensure more consistently high vigilance in baggage screeners and, therefore, optimal threat detection and passenger safety.

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A business cluster is a co-located group of micro, small, medium scale enterprises. Such firms can benefit significantly from their co-location through shared infrastructure and shared services. Cost sharing becomes an important issue in such sharing arrangements especially when the firms exhibit strategic behavior. There are many cost sharing methods and mechanisms proposed in the literature based on game theoretic foundations. These mechanisms satisfy a variety of efficiency and fairness properties such as allocative efficiency, budget balance, individual rationality, consumer sovereignty, strategyproofness, and group strategyproofness. In this paper, we motivate the problem of cost sharing in a business cluster with strategic firms and illustrate different cost sharing mechanisms through the example of a cluster of firms sharing a logistics service. Next we look into the problem of a business cluster sharing ICT (information and communication technologies) infrastructure and explore the use of cost sharing mechanisms.

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A method for determining the electron/hole transport length scale of model semiconducting polymer systems by scanning a narrow-light probe beam over the nonoverlapping anode/cathode region in asymmetric sandwich device structures is presented (see figure). Electron versus hole collection efficacy, and disorder and spatial anisotropy in the electrical transport parameters can be estimated.

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Background Advances in cancer diagnosis and treatment have significantly improved survival rates, through their subsequent health needs are often not adequately addressed by current health services. National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Partnerships Project awarded a national collaborative project to develop, trial and evaluate clinical benefits and cost effectiveness of an e-health enabled structured health promotion intervention - The Women’s Wellness after Cancer Program (WWACP). The aim of this e-health enabled multimodal intervention is to improve health related quality of life in women previously treated for target cancers. Aim The WWACP is a 12-week web based, interactive, holistic program. Primary outcomes for this project are to promote a positive change in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and reduction in Body Mass Index (BMI) in the women undertaking WWACP compared to women who receive usual care. Secondary outcomes include managing other side effects of cancer treatment through evidence-based nutrition and exercise practices, dealing with stress, sleep, menopause and sexuality issues. Methods The single-blinded multi-center randomized controlled trial recruited a toatl of 330 women within 24 months of completion of chemotherapy and /or radiotherapy. Women were randomly assigned to either a usual care or intervention group. Women provided with the intervention were provided with an interactive iBook and journal, web interface, and three virtual consultations by experienced cancer nurses. A variety of methods were utilized, to enable positive self- efficacy and lifestyle changes. These include online coaching with a registered nurse trained in the intervention, plus written educational and health promotional information. The program has been delivered through the e-health enabled interfaces, which enables virtual delivery via desktop and mobile computing devices. Importantly this enables accessibility for rural and regional women in Australia who are frequently geographically disadvantaged in terms of health care provision. Results Research focusing on alternative methods of delivering post treatment / or survivorship care in cancer utilizing web based interfaces is limited, but emerging evidence suggests that Internet interventions can increase psychological and physical wellbeing in cancer patients. The WWACP trial aims to establish the effectiveness of delivery of the program in terms of positive patient outcomes and cost effective, flexibility. The trial will be completed in September and results will be presented at the conference. Conclusions Women after acute hematological, breast and gynecological cancer treatments demonstrate good cancer survival rates and face residual health problems which are amenable to behavioral interventions. The conclusion of active treatment is a key 'teachable moment' in which sustainable positive lifestyle change can be achieved if patients receive education and psychological support which targets key treatment related health problems and known chronic disease risk factors.