Role of thrombin in coronary artery bypass grafting

Thrombin is a multifunctional protease, which has a central role in the development and progression of coronary atherosclerotic lesions and it is a possible mediator of myocardial ischemia-reperfusion injury. Its generation and procoagulant activity are greatly upregulated during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). On the other hand, activated protein C, a physiologic anticoagulant that is activated by thrombomodulin-bound thrombin, has been beneficial in various models of ischemia-reperfusion. Therefore, our aim in this study was to test whether thrombin generation or protein C activation during coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) associate with postoperative myocardial damage or hemodynamic changes. To further investigate the regulation of thrombin during CABG, we tested whether preoperative thrombophilic factors associate with increased CPB-related generation of thrombin or its procoagulant activity. We also measured the anticoagulant effects of heparin during CPB with a novel coagulation test, prothrombinase-induced clotting time (PiCT), and compared the performance of this test with the present standard of laboratory-based anticoagulation monitoring. One hundred patients undergoing elective on-pump CABG were studied prospectively. A progressive increase in markers of thrombin generation (F1+2), fibrinolysis (D-dimer), and fibrin formation (soluble fibrin monomer complexes) was observed during CPB, which was further distinctly propagated by reperfusion after myocardial ischemia, and continued to peak after the neutralization of heparin with protamine. Thrombin generation during reperfusion after CABG associated with postoperative myocardial damage and increased pulmonary vascular resistance. Activated protein C levels increased only slightly during CPB before the release of the aortic clamp, but reperfusion and more significantly heparin neutralization caused a massive increase in activated protein C levels. Protein C activation was clearly delayed in relation to both thrombin generation and fibrin formation. Even though activated protein C associated dynamically with postoperative hemodynamic performance, it did not associate with postoperative myocardial damage. Preoperative thrombophilic variables did not associate with perioperative thrombin generation or its procoagulant activity. Therefore, our results do not favor routine thrombophilia screening before CABG. There was poor agreement between PiCT and other measurements of heparin effects in the setting of CPB. However, lower heparin levels during CPB associated with inferior thrombin control and high heparin levels during CPB associated with fewer perioperative transfusions of blood products. Overall, our results suggest that hypercoagulation after CABG, especially during reperfusion, might be clinically important.

Health-Related Quality of Life, Costs and Treatment of Inflammatory Rheumatic Diseases in Routine Practice : With special emphasis on biological drugs

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and other chronic inflammatory joint diseases already begin to affect patients health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in the earliest phases of these diseases. In treatment of inflammatory joint diseases, the last two decades have seen new strategies and treatment options introduced. Treatment is started at an earlier phase; combinations of disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and corticosteroids are used; and in refractory cases new drugs such as tumour necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors or other biologicals can be started. In patients with new referrals to the Department of Rheumatology of the Helsinki University Central Hospital, we evaluated the 15D and the Stanford Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) results at baseline and approximately 8 months after their first visit. Altogether the analysis included 295 patients with various rheumatic diseases. The mean baseline 15D score (0.822, SD 0.114) was significantly lower than for the age-matched general population (0.903, SD 0.098). Patients with osteoarthritis (OA) and spondyloarthropathies (SPA) reported the poorest HRQoL. In patients with RA and reactive arthritis (ReA) the HRQoL improved in a statistically significant manner during the 8-month follow-up. In addition, a clinically important change appeared in patients with systemic rheumatic diseases. HAQ score improved significantly in patients with RA, arthralgia and fibromyalgia, and ReA. In a study of 97 RA patients treated either with etanercept or adalimumab, we assessed their HRQoL with the RAND 36-Item Health Survey 1.0 (RAND-36) questionnaire. We also analysed changes in clinical parameters and the HAQ. With etanercept and adalimumab, the values of all domains in the RAND-36 questionnaire increased during the first 3 months. The efficacy of each in improving HRQoL was statistically significant, and the drug effects were comparable. Compared to Finnish age- and sex-matched general population values, the HRQoL of the RA patients was significantly lower at baseline and, despite the improvement, remained lower also at follow-up. Our RA patients had long-standing and severe disease that can explain the low HRQoL also at follow-up. In a pharmacoeconomic study of patients treated with infliximab we evaluated medical and work disability costs for patients with chronic inflammatory joint disease during one year before and one year after institution of infliximab treatment. Clinical and economic data for 96 patients with different arthritis diagnoses showed, in all patients, significantly improved clinical and laboratory variables. However, the medical costs increased significantly during the second period by 12 015 (95% confidence interval, 6 496 to 18 076). Only a minimal decrease in work disability costs occurred mean decrease 130 (-1 268 to 1 072). In a study involving a switch from infliximab to etanercept, we investigated the clinical outcome in 49 patients with RA. Reasons for switching were in 42% failure to respond by American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 50% criteria; in 12% adverse event; and in 46% non-medical reasons although the patients had responded to infliximab. The Disease Activity Score with 28 joints examined (DAS28) allowed us to measure patients disease activity and compare outcome between groups based on the reason for switching. In the patients in whom infliximab was switched to etanercept for nonmedical reasons, etanercept continued to suppress disease activity effectively, and 1-year drug survival for etanercept was 77% (95% CI, 62 to 97). In patients in the infliximab failure and adverse event groups, DAS28 values improved significantly during etanercept therapy. However, the 1-year drug survival of etanercept was only 43% (95% CI, 26 to 70) and 50% (95% CI, 33 to 100), respectively. Although the HRQoL of patients with inflammatory joint diseases is significantly lower than that of the general population, use of early and aggressive treatment strategies including TNF-inhibitors can improve patients HRQoL effectively. Further research is needed in finding new treatment strategies for those patients who fail to respond or lose their response to TNF-inhibitors.

An adaptive drug delivery design using neural networks for effective treatment of infectious diseases: A simulation study

An adaptive drug delivery design is presented in this paper using neural networks for effective treatment of infectious diseases. The generic mathematical model used describes the coupled evolution of concentration of pathogens, plasma cells, antibodies and a numerical value that indicates the relative characteristic of a damaged organ due to the disease under the influence of external drugs. From a system theoretic point of view, the external drugs can be interpreted as control inputs, which can be designed based on control theoretic concepts. In this study, assuming a set of nominal parameters in the mathematical model, first a nonlinear controller (drug administration) is designed based on the principle of dynamic inversion. This nominal drug administration plan was found to be effective in curing "nominal model patients" (patients whose immunological dynamics conform to the mathematical model used for the control design exactly. However, it was found to be ineffective in curing "realistic model patients" (patients whose immunological dynamics may have off-nominal parameter values and possibly unwanted inputs) in general. Hence, to make the drug delivery dosage design more effective for realistic model patients, a model-following adaptive control design is carried out next by taking the help of neural networks, that are trained online. Simulation studies indicate that the adaptive controller proposed in this paper holds promise in killing the invading pathogens and healing the damaged organ even in the presence of parameter uncertainties and continued pathogen attack. Note that the computational requirements for computing the control are very minimal and all associated computations (including the training of neural networks) can be carried out online. However it assumes that the required diagnosis process can be carried out at a sufficient faster rate so that all the states are available for control computation.

Total Hip and Knee Arthoplasty for Osteoarthritis : Factors Related to the Early Outcome of Surgery

Some perioperative clinical factors related to the primary cemented arthroplasty operation for osteoarthritis of the hip or knee joint are studied and discussed in this thesis. In a randomized, double-blind study, 39 patients were divided into two groups: one receiving tranexamic acid and the other not receiving it. Tranexamic acid was given in a dose of 10 mg/kg before the operation and twice thereafter, at 8-hour intervals. Total blood loss was smaller in the tranexamic acid group than in the control group. No thromboembolic complications were noticed. In a prospective, randomized study, 58 patients with hip arthroplasty and 39 patients with knee arthroplasty were divided into groups with postoperative closed-suction drainage and without drainage. There was no difference in healing of the wounds, postoperative blood transfusions, complications or range of motion. As a result of this study, the use of drains is no longer recommended. In a randomised study the effectiveness of a femoral nerve block (25 patients) was compared with other methods of pain control (24 patients) on the first postoperative day after total knee arthroplasty. The femoral block consisted of a single injection administered at patients´ bedside during the surgeon´s hospital rounds. Femoral block patients reported less pain and required half of the amount of oxycodone. Additional femoral block or continued epidural analgesia was required more frequently by the control group patients. Pain management with femoral blocks resulted in less work for nursing staff. In a retrospective study of 422 total hip and knee arthroplasty cases the C-reactive protein levels and clinical course were examined. After hip and knee arthroplasty the maximal C-reactive protein values are seen on the second and third postoperative days, after which the level decreases rapidly. There is no difference between patients with cemented or uncemented prostheses. Major postoperative complications may cause a further increase in C-reactive protein levels at one and two weeks. In-hospital and outpatient postoperative control radiographs of 200 hip and knee arthroplasties were reviewed retrospectively. If postoperative radiographs are of good quality, there seems to be no need for early repetitive radiographs. The quality and safety of follow-up is not compromised by limiting follow-up radiographs to those with clinical indications. Exposure of the patients and the staff to radiation is reduced. Reading of the radiographs by only the treating orthopaedic surgeon is enough. These factors may seem separate from each other, but linking them together may help the treating orthopaedic surgeon to adequate patient care strategy. Notable savings can be achieved.

Bone health and vitamin D status in children with motor disability and adults with intellectual disability

Osteoporosis is not only a disease of the elderly, but is increasingly diagnosed in chronically ill children. Children with severe motor disabilities, such as cerebral palsy (CP), have many risk factors for osteoporosis. Adults with intellectual disability (ID) are also prone to low bone mineral density (BMD) and increased fractures. This study was carried out to identify risk factors for low BMD and osteoporosis in children with severe motor disability and in adults with ID. In this study 59 children with severe motor disability, ranging in age from 5 to 16 years were evaluated. Lumbar spine BMD was measured with dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. BMD values were corrected for bone size by calculating bone mineral apparent density (BMAD), and for bone age. The values were transformed into Z-scores by comparison with normative data. Spinal radiographs were assessed for vertebral morphology. Blood samples were obtained for biochemical parameters. Parents were requested to keep a food diary for three days. The median daily energy and nutrient intakes were calculated. Fractures were common; 17% of the children had sustained peripheral fractures and 25% had compression fractures. BMD was low in children; the median spinal BMAD Z-score was -1.0 (range -5.0 – +2.0) and the BMAD Z-score <-2.0 in 20% of the children. Low BMAD Z-score and hypercalciuria were significant risk factors for fractures. In children with motor disability, calcium intakes were sufficient, while total energy and vitamin D intakes were not. In the vitamin D intervention studies, 44 children and adolescents with severe motor disability and 138 adults with ID were studied. After baseline blood samples, the children were divided into two groups; those in the treatment group received 1000 IU peroral vitamin D3 five days a week for 10 weeks, and subjects in the control group continued with their normal diet. Adults with ID were allocated to receive either 800 IU peroral vitamin D3 daily for six months or a single intramuscular injection of 150 000 IU D3. Blood samples were obtained at baseline and after treatment. Serum concentrations of 25-OH-vitamin D (S-25-OHD) were low in all subgroups before vitamin D intervention: in almost 60% of children and in 77% of adults the S-25-OHD concentration was below 50 nmol/L, indicating vitamin D insufficiency. After vitamin D intervention, 19% of children and 42% adults who received vitamin D perorally and 12% of adults who received vitamin D intramuscularly had optimal S-25-OHD (>80 nmol/L). This study demonstrated that low BMD and peripheral and spinal fractures are common in children with severe motor disabilities. Vitamin D status was suboptimal in the majority of children with motor disability and adults with ID. Vitamin D insufficiency can be corrected with vitamin D supplements; the peroral dose should be at least 800 IU per day.

Cyclosporine A in the treatment of Interstitial Cystitis

Painful bladder syndrome/interstitial cystitis (PBS/IC) is a chronic urinary bladder disorder of unknown etiology characterized by symptoms of bladder pain and urinary frequency. PBS/IC is a chronic disease in which drug therapy has not led to significant success over the course of time. If the symptoms of PBS/IC are refractory to standard treatments, a possible cure might demand surgical intervention involving cystectomy. The eventual autoimmune etiology in mind, immunosuppressive drug therapy with cyclosporine A (CyA) was started to patients with refractory PBS/IC. CyA is a potent anti-inflammatory drug, a calcineurin inhibitor which inhibits T lymphocyte IL-2 produc-tion. T cells are present in abundance in inflammation of the bladder in PBS/IC. On the basis of a pilot, short-term study with CyA on PBS/IC, use of CyA was continued empirically over the long term. We conducted a prospective, randomized, six-month study in 64 patients comparing the effect of CyA with the FDA approved treatment, pentosan polysulfate sodium (PPS). We measured the drug effect on patient s symptoms, the potassium sensitivity test, and on urinary biomarkers. We further tested the impact of CyA, PPS, DMSO and BCG therapy on a health-related quality of life questionnaire and evaluated the response rate to treatment with these therapies. Long-term use of CyA was safe and effective in PBS/IC patients. The good clinical effect matured individually during the years in which CyA was continued. Cessation of medication led to the reappearance of symptoms, and restarting CyA to renewed alleviation, so that CyA was administered as continuous medication. The response rate to CyA increased during the study period, comprising 75% of CyA patients at six months. 19% of patients responded to PPS therapy. Adverse effects were more common in the CyA group, underlining the importance of monitoring the drug safety and appropriate titration of the dose. The potassium sensitivity test is positive in the majority of PBS/IC patients. Successful therapy of PBS/IC can alter nerve sensitivity to external potassium. This effect was seen more often after CyA therapy. Successful treatment of PBS/IC with CyA resulted to decreasing urinary levels of EGF. IL-6 levels in urine were higher among older patient with a longer history of PBS/IC. In these patients, reduced levels of urinary IL-6 were measured after CyA therapy. Patients who experience the best treatment response have improved quality of life according to the post-treatment health-related quality of life (HRQOL) questionnaire. CyA had more impact on the ma-jority of the aspects of QoL than PPS. Despite DMSO therapy being more successful than BCG in the count of responders, DMSO and BCG had equal effects on the HRQOL questionnaire.

Late results after paediatric cardiac surgery

Background: Congenital heart defects include a wide range of inborn malformations. Depending on the defect, the life expectancy of a newborn with cardiac anomaly varies from a few days to a normal life span. In most instances surgery, is the only treatment available. The late results of surgery have not been comprehensively investigated. Aims: Mortality, morbidity and the life situation of all Finnish patients who had been operated on for congenital heart defect during childhood were investigated. Methods: Patient and surgical data were gathered from all hospitals that had performed heart surgeries on children. Late mortality and survival data were obtained from the population registry, and the causes of deaths from Statistics Finland. Morbidity of patients operated on during 1953-1989 was assessed by the usage of medicines. The pharmacotherapy data of patients and controls were obtained from the Social Insurance Institute. The life situation of patients was surveyed by mailed questionnaire. Survival, causes of deaths and life situation of patients were compared with those of the general population. Results: A total of 7240 cardiac operations were performed on 6461 children during the first 37 years of cardiac surgery (1953-1989). The number of procedures constantly rose during this period, and the increase continued in later years. The patient material varied over time, as more defects became surgically treatable. During 1953-1989 the operative mortality (death within 30 days of surgery) was 6.9%. In the 1990s a slight rise occurred in early mortality, as increasingly complicated patients were surgically treated. During 2000-2003 practically no defects were beyond the operative range. Thus, the operative mortality of 4.4% was excellent, decreasing even further to 2.0% in 2004-2007. The overall 45-year survival of patients operated on in 1953-1989 was 78%, and the corresponding figure for the general population was 93%. Survival depended on the defect, being worst among patients with univentricular heart. Late survival was also better during the 1990s and at the beginning of the 21st century. Of the 6028 early survivors, 592 died late (>30 days) after surgery. A total of 397 deaths (67%) were related and 185 (31%) unrelated to congenital heart defect. The cause of death was unknown in 10 cases. Of those 5774 patients who survived their first operation and had complete follow-up, 16% were operated on several times. Seventeen percent of patients used medicines for cardiac symptoms (heart failure, arrhythmia, hypertension and coronary disease). Patients risk of using cardiac medicines was 2.16 (Cl 1.97-2.37) times higher than that of controls. Patients also had more genetic syndromes and mental retardation and more often used medicines for asthma and epilepsy. Adult patients who had been operated on as children had coped surprisingly well with their defects. Their level of education was similar and their employment level even higher than expected, and they were living in a steady relationship as often as the general population. Conclusions: Cardiac surgery developed rapidly, and nowadays practically all defects can be treated. The overall survival of all operated patients was 78%, 16% less than that of the general population. However, it was significantly better than the anticipated natural survival. However, many patients had health problems; 16% needed reoperations and 17% cardiac medicines to maintain their condition. Most of the patients assessed their general health as good and lived a normal life.

Adaptive tree multigrids and simplified spherical harmonics approximation in deterministic neutral and charged particle transport

A new deterministic three-dimensional neutral and charged particle transport code, MultiTrans, has been developed. In the novel approach, the adaptive tree multigrid technique is used in conjunction with simplified spherical harmonics approximation of the Boltzmann transport equation. The development of the new radiation transport code started in the framework of the Finnish boron neutron capture therapy (BNCT) project. Since the application of the MultiTrans code to BNCT dose planning problems, the testing and development of the MultiTrans code has continued in conventional radiotherapy and reactor physics applications. In this thesis, an overview of different numerical radiation transport methods is first given. Special features of the simplified spherical harmonics method and the adaptive tree multigrid technique are then reviewed. The usefulness of the new MultiTrans code has been indicated by verifying and validating the code performance for different types of neutral and charged particle transport problems, reported in separate publications.

Older male and female drivers in car-dependent settings: How much do they use other modes, and do they compensate for reduced driving to maintain mobility?

Among the societal and health challenges of population ageing is the continued transport mobility of older people who retain their driving licence, especially in highly car-dependent societies. While issues surrounding loss of a driving licence have been researched, less attention has been paid to variations in physical travel by mode among the growing proportion of older people who retain their driving licence. It is unclear how much they reduce their driving with age, the degree to which they replace driving with other modes of transport, and how this varies by age and gender. This paper reports research conducted in the state of Queensland, Australia, with a sample of 295 older drivers (>60 years). Time spent driving is considerably greater than time spent as a passenger or walking across age groups and genders. A decline in travel time as a driver with increasing age is not redressed by increases in travel as a passenger or pedestrian. The patterns differ by gender, most likely reflecting demographic and social factors. Given the expected considerable increase in the number of older women in particular, and their reported preference not to drive alone, there are implications for policies and programmes that are relevant to other car-dependent settings. There are also implications for the health of older drivers, since levels of walking are comparatively low.

HER2 positive gastric and gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma; An Irish tertiary center experience

Background: Trastuzumab has been approved for patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) over expression and gene amplification metastatic gastric cancer. Here we present the prevalence of HER2 positive gastric cancer in an Irish population, the use of Trastuzumab in first line and beyond progression. Methods: The study was conducted in St James's Hospital, Dublin. A retrospective analysis of the date of patients with HER2 positive gastric cancer over a period of 3 years was carried out. Her2 positive was defined as immunohistochemistry (IHC) score of +3, of IHC score of +2 and increased gene copy number by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Overall survival was calculated from the day of initiation of treatment with Trastuzumab until death. Results: During the study period 140 patients with gastric and gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma were treated. Out of those, 30 (21.4%) had HER2 positive disease. Among HER2 positive disease patients 18 (12.8%) were treated with first line Trastuzumab containing regimen with a median overall survival of 13 months. Nine (50%) developed progressive disease while on Trastuzumab and of those, 4 (22.2%) patients continued on Trastuzumab beyond progression, two (11.1%) of whom achieved stable disease and a prolonged survival. Conclusion: HER2 positivity rate in an Irish population with advanced gastric and gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma is 21.4%. Treatment with Trastuzumab in the first line in combination with chemotherapy is a reasonable approach. Continuation of Trastuzumab beyond progression is a feasible strategy that requires further exploration.

Dancing into the second phase of creative industries

As we enter the second phase of creative industries there is a shift away from the early 1990s ideology of the arts as a creative content provider for the wealth generating ‘knowledge’ economy to an expanded rhetoric encompassing ‘cultural capital’ and its symbolic value. A renewed focus on culture is examined through a regional scan of creative industries in which social engineering of the arts occurs through policy imperatives driven by ‘profit oriented conceptualisations of culture’ (Hornidge 2011, p. 263) In the push for artists to become ‘culturpreneurs’ a trend has emerged where demand for ‘embedded creatives’ (Cunningham 2013) sees an exodus from arts-based employment through use of transferable skills into areas outside the arts. For those that stay, within the performing arts in particular, employment remains project-based, sporadic, underpaid, self-initiated and often self-financed, requiring adaptive career paths. Artist entrepreneurs must balance creation and performance of their art with increasing amounts of time spent on branding, compliance, fundraising and the logistical and commercial requirements of operating in a CI paradigm. The artists’ key challenge thus becomes one of aligning core creative and aesthetic values with market and business considerations. There is also the perceived threat posed by the ‘prosumer’ phenomenon (Bruns 2008), in which digital on-line products are created and produced by those formerly seen as consumers of art or audiences for art. Despite negative aspects to this scenario, a recent study (Steiner & Schneider 2013) reveals that artists are happier and more satisfied than other workers within and outside the creative industries. A lively hybridisation of creative practice is occurring through mobile and interactive technologies with dynamic connections to social media. Continued growth in arts festivals attracts participation in international and transdisciplinary collaborations, whilst cross-sectoral partnerships provide artists with opportunities beyond a socio-cultural setting into business, health, science and education. This is occurring alongside a renewed engagement with place through the rise of cultural precincts in ‘creative cities’ (Florida 2008, Landry 2000), providing revitalised spaces for artists to gather and work. Finally, a reconsideration of the specialist attributes and transferable skills that artists bring to the creative industries suggests ways to dance through both the challenges and opportunities occasioned by the current complexities of arts’ practices.

Saving Indigenous nurses and midwives from historical oblivion

Learning about the Indigenous women who had worked between 1950-2005 was a surprise to me. This area of under researched Australian history became a passion which I've continued to explore and, in recent years. have extended. It's a challenging field. with issues familiar to many historians. There may be many documentary records about Indigenous nurses, hidden in publicly accessible archives and collections, but individuals may not easily be identified as Indigenous. Another enormous challenge is to question widely-held assumptions. Historically, Aboriginal people have been positioned within a deficit model and cast as recipients of health care. So it's assumed that Indigenous people did not deliver care in any way. were not part of formal training schemes, or were not in paid employment. More evidence is emerging that counters those assumptions. Aboriginal women have worked as nurses and midwives within Australia as far back as the 1890s and, who knows, perhaps earlier. Their contribution is a hidden but significant element in Indigenous and Australian history

Fertility in Namibia : Changes in fertility levels in North-Central Namibia 1960-2001, including an assessment of the impact of HIV

The aim of this study was to estimate the development of fertility in North-Central Namibia, former Ovamboland, from 1960 to 2001. Special attention was given to the onset of fertility decline and to the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility. An additional aim was to introduce parish registers as a source of data for fertility research in Africa. Data used consisted of parish registers from Evangelical Lutheran congregations, the 1991 and 2001 Population and Housing Censuses, the 1992 and 2000 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys, and the HIV sentinel surveillances of 1992-2004. Both period and cohort fertility were analysed. The P/F ratio method was used when analysing census data. The impact of HIV infection on fertility was estimated indirectly by comparing the fertility histories of women who died at an age of less than 50 years with the fertility of other women. The impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility was assessed both among infected women and in the general population. Fertility in the study population began to decline in 1980. The decline was rapid during the 1980s, levelled off in the early 1990s at the end of war of independence and then continued to decline until the end of the study period. According to parish registers, total fertility was 6.4 in the 1960s and 6.5 in the 1970s, and declined to 5.1 in the 1980s and 4.2 in the 1990s. Adjustment of these total fertility rates to correspond to levels of fertility based on data from the 1991 and 2001 censuses resulted in total fertility declining from 7.6 in 1960-79 to 6.0 in 1980-89, and to 4.9 in 1990-99. The decline was associated with increased age at first marriage, declining marital fertility and increasing premarital fertility. Fertility among adolescents increased, whereas the fertility of women in all other age groups declined. During the 1980s, the war of independence contributed to declining fertility through spousal separation and delayed marriages. Contraception has been employed in the study region since the 1980s, but in the early 1990s, use of contraceptives was still so limited that fertility was higher in North-Central Namibia than in other regions of the country. In the 1990s, fertility decline was largely a result of the increased prevalence of contraception. HIV prevalence among pregnant women increased from 4% in 1992 to 25% in 2001. In 2001, total fertility among HIV-infected women (3.7) was lower than that among other women (4.8), resulting in total fertility of 4.4 among the general population in 2001. The HIV epidemic explained more than a quarter of the decline in total fertility at population level during most of the 1990s. The HIV epidemic also reduced the number of children born by reducing the number of potential mothers. In the future, HIV will have an extensive influence on both the size and age structure of the Namibian population. Although HIV influences demographic development through both fertility and mortality, the effect through changes in fertility will be smaller than the effect through mortality. In the study region, as in some other regions of southern Africa, a new type of demographic transition is under way, one in which population growth stagnates or even reverses because of the combined effects of declining fertility and increasing mortality, both of which are consequences of the HIV pandemic.

Decomposition analysis to examine Australia’s 2030 GHGs emissions target: How hard will it be to achieve?

The Australian government has recently pledged a reduction in GHGs emissions of 26–28% below the 2005 level by 2030. How big is the challenge for the country to achieve this target in terms of its present emissions profile, recent historical trends, and the contributions to those trends from key proximate factors contributing to emissions? In this paper, we attempt a quantitative judgement of the challenge by using decomposition analysis. Based on the analysis it appears the announced target will be quite challenging to achieve if the average annual mitigating effects from economic restructuring, energy efficiency improvements and movement towards less emissions-intensive energy sources in evidence over 2002–2013 continued through to 2030; however, if the contribution from these mitigating sources in evidence over 2006–2013 can be sustained, achievement of the target will be much less challenging. The challenge for government then will be to provide a policy framework to ensure the more pronounced beneficial impacts of the mitigating factors evidenced during 2006–2013 can be maintained over the years to 2030.

Hyvinvointivaltion optimaalisen köyhyyspolitiikan määrittelyä

The purpose of this research is to identify the optimal poverty policy for a welfare state. Poverty is defined by income. Policies for reducing poverty are considered primary, and those for reducing inequality secondary. Poverty is seen as a function of the income transfer system within a welfare state. This research presents a method for optimising this function for the purposes of reducing poverty. It is also implemented in the representative population sample within the Income Distribution Data. SOMA simulation model is used. The iterative simulation process is continued until a level of poverty is reached at which improvements can no longer be made. Expenditures and taxes are kept in balance during the process. The result consists of two programmes. The first programme (social assistance programme) was formulated using five social assistance parameters, all of which dealt with the norms of social assistance for adults (€/month). In the second programme (basic benefits programme), in which social assistance was frozen at the legislative level of 2003, the parameter with the strongest poverty reduction effect turned out to be one of the basic unemployment allowances. This was followed by the norm of the national pension for a single person, two parameters related to housing allowance, and the norm for financial aid for students of higher education institutions. The most effective financing parameter measured by gini-coefficient in all programmes was the percent of capital taxation. Furthermore, these programmes can also be examined in relation to their costs. The social assistance programme is significantly cheaper than the basic benefits programme, and therefore with regard to poverty, the social assistance programme is more cost effective than the basic benefits programme. Therefore, public demand for raising the level of basic benefits does not seem to correspond to the most cost effective poverty policy. Raising basic benefits has most effect on reducing poverty within the group of people whose basic benefits are raised. Raising social assistance, on the other hand, seems to have a strong influence on the poverty of all population groups. The most significant outcome of this research is the development of a method through which a welfare state’s income transfer-based safety net, which has severely deteriorated in recent decades, might be mended. The only way of doing so involves either social assistance or some forms of basic benefits and supplementing these by modifying social assistance.