Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon

In this paper, we suggest criteria for the identification of active and break events of the Indian summer monsoon on the basis of recently derived high resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset over India (1951-2007). Active and break events are defined as periods during the peak monsoon months of July and August, in which the normalized anomaly of the rainfall over a critical area, called the monsoon core zone exceeds 1 or is less than -1.0 respectively, provided the criterion is satisfied for at least three consecutive days. We elucidate the major features of these events. We consider very briefly the relationship of the intraseasonal fluctuations between these events and the interannual variation of the summer monsoon rainfall. We find that breaks tend to have a longer life-span than active spells.While, almost 80% of the active spells lasted 3-4 days, only 40% of the break spells were of such short duration. A small fraction (9%) of active spells and 32% of break spells lasted for a week or longer. While active events occurred almost every year, not a single break occurred in 26% of the years considered. On an average, there are 7 days of active and break events from July through August. There are no significant trends in either the days of active or break events. We have shown that there is a major difference between weak spells and long intense breaks. While weak spells are characterized by weak moist convective regimes, long intense break events have a heat trough type circulation which is similar to the circulation over the Indian subcontinent before the onset of the monsoon. The space-time evolution of the rainfall composite patterns suggests that the revival from breaks occurs primarily from northward propagations of the convective cloud zone. There are important differences between the spatial patterns of the active/break spells and those characteristic of interannual variation, particularly those associated with the link to ENSO. Hence, the interannual variation of the Indian monsoon cannot be considered as primarily arising from the interannual variation of intraseasonal variation. However, the signature over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean on intraseasonal time scales is similar to that on the interannual time scales.

An association model for the solubilities of pharmaceuticals in supercritical carbon dioxide

The equilibrium solubility of a pharmaceutical compound. 1,5-dimethy1-2-phenyl-4-propan-2-ylpyrazol-3-one (propyphenazone, isopropylantipyrine) in supercritical carbon dioxide (SCCO2) was experimentally determined by a saturation method at 308, 318 and 328 K. over the pressure range of 9.0-19.0 MPa. The solubility data satisfied the self-consistency test, proposed by Mendez-Santiago and Teja. A new association model was derived to correlate the solubilities of pharmaceutical compounds in SCCO2. Solubility data from 54 different pharmaceutical compounds including steroids, antibiotics, anti-inflammatory, antioxidants, statins and specific functional drugs were collected from literature. The model successfully correlated the experimental results for the solubilities of all these compounds in SCCO2 within 12% AARD. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards understanding the unusual Indian monsoon in 2009

The Indian summer monsoon season of 2009 commenced with a massive deficit in all-India rainfall of 48% of the average rainfall in June. The all-India rainfall in July was close to the normal but that in August was deficit by 27%. In this paper, we first focus on June 2009, elucidating the special features and attempting to identify the factors that could have led to the large deficit in rainfall. In June 2009, the phase of the two important modes, viz., El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) was unfavourable. Also, the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) was warmer than in other years and much warmer than the Bay. In almost all the years, the opposite is true, i.e., the Bay is warmer than EEIO in June. It appears that this SST gradient gave an edge to the tropical convergence zone over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, in competition with the organized convection over the Bay. Thus, convection was not sustained for more than three or four days over the Bay and no northward propagations occurred. We suggest that the reversal of the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the Bay of Bengal and EEIO, played a critical role in the rainfall deficit over the Bay and hence the Indian region. We also suggest that suppression of convection over EEIO in association with the El Nino led to a positive phase of EQUINOO in July and hence revival of the monsoon despite the El Nino. It appears that the transition to a negative phase of EQUINOO in August and the associated large deficit in monsoon rainfall can also be attributed to the El Nino.

Identification and Epidemiological Typing of Campylobacter strains isolated from Patients in Finland

C. jejuni constitutes the majority of Campylobacter strains isolated from patients in Finland, and C. coli strains are also reported. To improve the species identification, a combination of phenotype- and genotype-based methods was applied. Standardising the cell suspension turbidity in the hippurate hydrolysis test enabled the reliable identification of hippurate-positive Campylobacter strains as C. jejuni. The detection of species-specific genes by PCR showed that about 30% of the hippurate-negative strains were C. jejuni. Three typing methods, serotyping, PCR-RFLP analysis of LOS biosynthesis genes and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) were evaluated as epidemiological typing tools for C. jejuni. The high number of non-typeable strains lowered the discriminatory ability of serotyping. PCR-RFLP typing offered high discrimination for both serotypeable and non-typeable strains, but the correlation between serotypes and RFLP-types was not high enough to enable its use for molecular serotyping of non-typeable strains. PFGE was a highly discriminative typing method. Although the use of two restriction enzymes generally increases the discriminatory ability, KpnI alone offered almost as high discrimination as the use of SmaI and KpnI. The characteristic seasonal distribution of Campylobacter infections with a peak in summer and low incidence in winter was mainly due to domestically acquired infections. Of the C. jejuni strains, 41% were of domestic origin compared to only 17% of the C. coli strains. Serotypes Pen 12, Pen 6,7 and Pen 27 were significantly associated with domestic C. jejuni infections, Pen 1,44, Pen 3 and Pen 37 with travel-related infections. Pen 2 and Pen 4-complex were common both in domestic and travel-related infections. Serotype Pen 2 was less common among patients 60 years or older than in younger patients, more prevalent in Western Finland than in other parts of the country and more prevalent than other serotypes in winter. The source of Pen 2 infections may be related to cattle, since Pen 2 is the most common serotype in isolates from Finnish cattle. PFGE subtypes among isolates from patients and chickens during the summer 2003 and from cattle during the whole year were compared. The analysis of indistinguishable SmaI/KpnI subtypes suggested that up to 31% of the human infections may have been mediated by chickens and 19% by cattle. Human strains isolated during two one-year sampling periods were studied by PFGE. Of the domestic strains, 69% belonged to SmaI subtypes found during both sampling periods. Four SmaI subtypes accounted for 45% of the domestic strains, further typing of these subtypes by KpnI revealed six temporally persistent SmaI/KpnI subtypes. They were only occasionally identified in travel-related strains, and therefore, can be considered to be national subtypes. Each subtype was associated with a serotype: Pen 2, Pen 12, Pen 27, Pen 4-complex, Pen 41, and Pen 57. Five of these subtypes were identified in cattle (S5/K27, S7/K1, S7/K2, S7/K5 and S64/K19), and two in chickens (S7/K1 and S64/K19) with a temporal association with human infections in 2003. Cattle are more likely potential sources of these persistent subtypes, since long-term excretion of Campylobacter strains by cattle has been reported.

Kalman Filter Algorithm for Rating and Prediction in Basketball

The Thesis presents a state-space model for a basketball league and a Kalman filter algorithm for the estimation of the state of the league. In the state-space model, each of the basketball teams is associated with a rating that represents its strength compared to the other teams. The ratings are assumed to evolve in time following a stochastic process with independent Gaussian increments. The estimation of the team ratings is based on the observed game scores that are assumed to depend linearly on the true strengths of the teams and independent Gaussian noise. The team ratings are estimated using a recursive Kalman filter algorithm that produces least squares optimal estimates for the team strengths and predictions for the scores of the future games. Additionally, if the Gaussianity assumption holds, the predictions given by the Kalman filter maximize the likelihood of the observed scores. The team ratings allow probabilistic inference about the ranking of the teams and their relative strengths as well as about the teams’ winning probabilities in future games. The predictions about the winners of the games are correct 65-70% of the time. The team ratings explain 16% of the random variation observed in the game scores. Furthermore, the winning probabilities given by the model are concurrent with the observed scores. The state-space model includes four independent parameters that involve the variances of noise terms and the home court advantage observed in the scores. The Thesis presents the estimation of these parameters using the maximum likelihood method as well as using other techniques. The Thesis also gives various example analyses related to the American professional basketball league, i.e., National Basketball Association (NBA), and regular seasons played in year 2005 through 2010. Additionally, the season 2009-2010 is discussed in full detail, including the playoffs.

Association between molecular variation in the phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) locus and migration propensity in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

Habitat fragmentation produces patches of suitable habitat surrounded by unfavourable matrix habitat. A species may persist in such a fragmented landscape in an equilibrium between the extinctions and recolonizations of local populations, thus forming a metapopulation. Migration between local populations is necessary for the long-term persistence of a metapopulation. The Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) forms a metapopulation in the Åland islands in Finland. There is migration between the populations, the extent of which is affected by several environmental factors and variation in the phenotype of individual butterflies. Different allelic forms of the glycolytic enzyme phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi) has been identified as a possible genetic factor influencing flight performance and migration rate in this species. The frequency of a certain Pgi allele, Pgi-f, follows the same pattern in relation to population age and connectivity as migration propensity. Furthermore, variation in flight metabolic performance, which is likely to affect migration propensity, has been linked to genetic variation in Pgi or a closely linked locus. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between Pgi genotype and the migration propensity in the Glanville fritillary both at the individual and population levels using a statistical modelling approach. A mark-release-recapture (MRR) study was conducted in a habitat patch network of M. cinxia in Åland to collect data on the movements of individual butterflies. Larval samples from the study area were also collected for population level examinations. Each butterfly and larva was genotyped at the Pgi locus. The MRR data was parameterised with two mathematical models of migration: the Virtual Migration Model (VM) and the spatially explicit diffusion model. VM model predicted and observed numbers of emigrants from populations with high and low frequencies of Pgi-f were compared. Posterior predictive data sets were simulated based on the parameters of the diffusion model. Lack-of-fit of observed values to the model predicted values of several descriptors of movements were detected, and the effect of Pgi genotype on the deviations was assessed by randomizations including the genotype information. This study revealed a possible difference in the effect of Pgi genotype on migration propensity between the two sexes in the Glanville fritillary. The females with and males without the Pgi-f allele moved more between habitat patches, which is probably related to differences in the function of flight in the two sexes. Females may use their high flight capacity to migrate between habitat patches to find suitable oviposition sites, whereas males may use it to acquire mates by keeping a territory and fighting off other intruding males, possibly causing them to emigrate. The results were consistent across different movement descriptors and at the individual and population levels. The effect of Pgi is likely to be dependent on the structure of the landscape and the prevailing environmental conditions.

Differences in hydration and association of helical Boc-Val-Ala-Leu-Aib-Val-Ala-Leu-(Val-Ala-Leu-Aib)2-OMe. xH2O in two crystalline polymorphs

The 15-residue apolar peptide, Boc-Val-Ala-Leu-Aib-Val-Ala-Leu-(Val-Ala-Leu-Aib)h2a-sO Mebeen crystallized from 2-propanol-water (form I). The crystal parameters for I are as follows:C74H133N15018*2H20s,p ace group P21, a = 9.185 (6) A, b = 47.410 (3) A, c = 10.325 (9) A, @ = 91.47(2)O, 2 = 2, R = 6.3% for 4532 reflections observed >3aQ, resolution 0.94 A. The structure isalmost completely a-helical with eleven 5-1 hydrogen bonds and one 441 hydrogen bond nearthe N-terminus. The structure has been compared with a polymorph (form 11) obtained frommethanol-water (Karle, I. L.; Flippen-Anderson, J. L.; Uma, K.; Sukumar, M.; Balaram, P., J. An.Chem. SOC19. 90,112,9350-9356). The two forms differ in the extent of hydration; form I contains two water molecules in the head-to-tail region of helical columns, while form I1 is more extensively solvated, with the equivalent of 7.5 water molecules. The three-dimensional packing of helices is completely parallel in I and antiparallel in 11.

HDL subspecies : association with low HDL-C, obesity, and metabolic syndrome

AIMS An independent, powerful coronary heart disease (CHD) predictor is a low level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). Discoidal preβ-HDL particles and large HDL2 particles are the primary cholesterol acceptors in reverse cholesterol transport, a key anti-atherogenic HDL mechanism. The quality of HDL subspecies may provide better markers of HDL functionality than does HDL-C alone. We aimed I) to study whether alterations in the HDL subspecies profile exist in low-HDL-C subjects II) to explore the relationship of any changes in HDL subspecies profile in relation to atherosclerosis and metabolic syndrome; III) to elucidate the impact of genetics and acquired obesity on HDL subspecies distribution. SUBJECTS The study consisted of 3 cohorts: A) Finnish families with low HDL-C and premature CHD (Study I: 67 subjects with familial low HDL-C and 64 controls; Study II: 83 subjects with familial low HDL-C, 65 family members with normal HDL-C, and 133 controls); B) a cohort of 113 low- and 133 high-HDL-C subjects from the Health 2000 Health Examination Survey carried out in Finland (Study III); and C) a Finnish cohort of healthy young adult twins (52 monozygotic and 89 dizygotic pairs) (Study IV). RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The subjects with familial low HDL-C had a lower preβ-HDL concentration than did controls, and the low-HDL-C subjects displayed a dramatic reduction (50-70%) in the proportion of large HDL2b particles. The subjects with familial low HDL-C had increased carotid atherosclerosis measured as intima-media-thickness (IMT), and HDL2b particles correlated negatively with IMT. The reduction in both key cholesterol acceptors, preβ-HDL and HDL2 particles, supports the concept of impaired reverse cholesterol transport contributing to the higher CHD risk in low-HDL-C subjects. The family members with normal HDL-C and the young adult twins with acquired obesity showed a reduction in large HDL2 particles and an increase in small HDL3 particles, which may be the first changes leading to the lowering of HDL-C. The low-HDL-C subjects had a higher serum apolipoprotein E (apoE) concentration, which correlated positively with the metabolic syndrome components (waist circumference, TG, and glucose), highlighting the need for a better understanding of apoE metabolism in human atherosclerosis. In the twin study, the increase in small HDL3b particles was associated with obesity independent of genetic effects. The heritability estimate, of 73% for HDL-C and 46 to 63% for HDL subspecies, however, demonstrated a strong genetic influence. These results suggest that the relationship between obesity and lipoproteins depends on different elements in each subject. Finally, instead of merely elevating HDL-C, large HDL2 particles and discoidal preβ-HDL particles may provide beneficial targets for HDL-targeted therapy.

Hostility: A prospective study of the genetic and environmental background and associations with cardiovascular risk

Hostility is a multidimensional construct having wide effects on society. In its different forms, hostility is related to a large array of social and health problems, such as criminality, substance abuse, depression, and cardiovascular risks. Identifying and tackling early-life factors that contribute to hostility may have public health significance. Although the variance in hostility is estimated to be 18-50 percent heritable, there are significant gaps in knowledge regarding the molecular genetics of hostility. It is known that a cold and unsupportive home atmosphere in childhood predicts a child s later hostility. However, the long-term effects of care-giving quality on hostility in adulthood and the role of genes in this association are unclear. The present dissertation is part of the ongoing population-based prospective Young Finns study, which commenced in 1980 with 3596 3-18-year-old boys and girls who were followed for 27 years. The specific aims of the dissertation were first to study the antecedents of hostility by looking at 1) the genetic background, 2) the early environmental predictors, and 3) the gene environment interplay behind hostility. As a second aim, the thesis endeavored to examine 4) the association between hostility and cardiovascular risks, and 5) the moderating effect of demographic factors, such as gender and socioeconomic status, on this association. The study found potential gene polymorphisms from chromosomes 7, 14, 17, and 22 suggestively associated with hostility. Of early environmental influences, breastfeeding and early care-giving were found to predict hostility in adulthood. In addition, a serotonin receptor 2A polymorphism rs6313 moderated the effect of early care-giving on later hostile attitudes. Furthermore, hostility was shown to predict cardiovascular risks, such as metabolic syndrome and inflammation. Finally, parental socioeconomic status was found to moderate the association between anger and early atherosclerosis. The new genetic and early environmental antecedents of hostility identified in this research may help in understanding the development of hostility and its health risks, and in planning appropriate prevention. The significance of early influences on this development is stressed. Although the markers studied are individual- and family-related factors, these may be influenced at the societal level by giving accurate information to all individuals concerned and by improving the societal circumstances.

The Home of Hearing : George Lindbeck's understanding of community

The aim of this thesis was to examine the understanding of community in George Lindbeck s The Nature of Doctrine. Intrinsic to this question was also examining how Lindbeck understands the relation between the text and the world which both meet in a Christian community. Thirdly this study also aimed at understanding what the persuasiveness of this understanding depends on. The method applied for this task was systematic analysis. The study was conducted by first providing an orientation into the nontheological substance of the ND which was assumed useful with respect to the aim of this study. The study then went on to explore Lindbeck in his own context of postliberal theology in order to see how the ND was received. It also attempted to provide a picture of how the ND relates to Lindbeck as a theologian. The third chapter was a descriptive analysis into the cultural-linguistic perspective, which is understood as being directly proportional to his understanding of community. The fourth chapter was an analysis into how the cultural-linguistic perspective sees the relation between the text and the world. When religion is understood from a cultural-linguistic perspective, it presents itself as a cultural-linguistic entity, which Lindbeck understands as a comprehensive interpretive scheme which structures human experience and understanding of oneself and the world in which one lives. When one exists in this entity, it is the entity which shapes the subjectivities of all those who are at home in this entity which makes participation in the life of a cultural linguistic entity a condition for understanding it. Religion is above all an external word that moulds and shapes our religious existence and experience. Understanding faith then as coming from hearing, is something that correlates with the cultural-linguistic depiction of reality. Religion informs us of a religious reality, it does not originate in any way from ourselves. This externality linked to the axiomatic nature of religion is also something that distinguishes Lindbeck sharply from liberalist tendencies, which understand religion as ultimately expressing the prereflective depths of the inner self. Language is the central analogy to understanding the medium in which one moves when inhabiting a cultural-linguistic system because language is the transmitting medium in which the cultural-linguistic system is embodied. The realism entailed in Lindbeck s understanding of a community is that we are fundamentally on the receiving end when it comes to our identities whether cultural or religious. We always witness to something. Its persuasiveness rests on the fact that we never exist in an unpersuaded reality. The language of Christ is a self-sustaining and irreducible cultural-linguistic entity, which is ontologically founded upon Christ. It transmits the reality of a new being. The basic relation to the world for a Christian is that of witnessing salvation in Christ: witnessing Christ as the home of hearing the message of salvation, which is the God-willed way. Following this logic, the relation of the world and the text is one of relating to the world from the text, i.e. In Christ through the word (text) for the world, because it assumes it s logic from the way Christ ontologically relates to us.

Latitudinal gradient in aerosol properties over the Indian and Southern Oceans during the austral summer

Extensive measurements of columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD), composite (M-T) and black carbon aerosol mass (M-B) concentrations were made over the tropical Indian and Southern Oceans as a part of the Pilot Expedition to the Southern Ocean during the boreal winter. The AOD, M-T and M-B show large latitudinal gradient towards south up to ITCZ. Beyond ITCZ, up to 56 degrees S, AOD and M-B show very low and steady values. However M-T shows large variations in the Southern Ocean due to the enhanced production of sea salt aerosols associated with high sea surface winds. The short wave aerosol radiative forcing at the surface over north of equator is in the range - 10 to -23 W m(-2), whereas that over the Southern Ocean was in the range -4 to -5 W m(-2). The corresponding atmospheric forcing was in the range of 6-13 W m(-2) and 0.8-1.4 W m(-2). This large north south change in the aerosol radiative forcing has important implications to the meridional circulation and hence to climate.