959 resultados para Causal Judgment
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Research on achievement goal promotion at University has shown that performance-approach goals are perceived as a means to succeed at University (high social utility) but are not appreciated (low social desirability). We argue that such a paradox could explain why research has detected that performance-approach goals consistently predict academic grades. First-year psychology students answered a performance-approach goal scale with standard, social desirability and social utility instructions. Participants' grades were recorded at the end of the semester. Results showed that the relationship between performance-approach goals and grades was inhibited by the increase of these goals' social desirability and facilitated by the increase of their social utility, revealing that the predictive validity of performance-approach goals depend on social value.
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This paper studies the effect of changes in foreign competition on the structureof compensation and incentives of U.S. executives. We measure foreign competitionas import penetration and use tariffs and exchange rates as instrumental variables toestimate its causal effect on pay. We find that higher foreign competition leads tomore incentive provision in a variety of ways. First, it increases the sensitivity of payto performance. Second, it increases whithin-firm pay differentials between executivelevels, with CEOs typically experiencing the largest wage increases, partly becausethey receive the steepest incentive contracts. Finally, higher foreign competition is alsoassociated with a higher demand for talent. These results indicate that increased foreigncompetition can explain some of the recent trends in compensation structures.
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In spite of increasing representation of women in politics, little is known about their impact onpolicies. Comparing outcomes of parliaments with different shares of female members does not identifytheir causal impact because of possible differences in the underlying electorate. This paper usesa unique data set on voting decisions to sheds new light on gender gaps in policy making. Ouranalysis focuses on Switzerland, where all citizens can directly decide on a broad range of policiesin referendums and initiatives. We show that there are large gender gaps in the areas of health,environmental protection, defense spending and welfare policy which typically persist even conditionalon socio-economic characteristics. We also find that female policy makers have a substantial effect onthe composition of public spending, but a small effect on the overall size of government.
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Excess entry or the high failure rate of market-entry decisions is often attributed tooverconfidence exhibited by entreprene urs. We show analytically that whereas excess entryis an inevitable consequence of imperfect assessments of entrepreneurial skill, it does notimply overconfidence. Judgmental fallibility leads to excess entry even when everyone isunderconfident. Self-selection implies greater confidence (but not necessarilyoverconfidence) among those who start new businesses than those who do not and amongsuccessful entrants than failures. Our results question claims that entrepreneurs areoverconfident and emphasize the need to understand the role of judgmental fallibility inproducing economic outcomes.
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Ontic structural realism is the view that structures are what is real in the first place in the domain of fundamental physics. The structures are usually conceived as including a primitive modality. However, it has not been spelled out as yet what exactly that modality amounts to. This paper proposes to fill this lacuna by arguing that the fundamental physical structures possess a causal essence, being powers. Applying the debate about causal vs. categorical properties in analytic metaphysics to ontic structural realism, I show that the standard argument against categorical and for causal properties holds for structures as well. Structural realism, as a position in the metaphysics of science that is a form of scientific realism, is committed to causal structures. The metaphysics of causal structures is supported by physics, and it can provide for a complete and coherent view of the world that includes all domains of empirical science.
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Intuitively, we think of perception as providing us with direct cognitive access to physical objects and their properties. But this common sense picture of perception becomes problematic when we notice that perception is not always veridical. In fact, reflection on illusions and hallucinations seems to indicate that perception cannot be what it intuitively appears to be. This clash between intuition and reflection is what generates the puzzle of perception. The task and enterprise of unravelling this puzzle took, and still takes, centre stage in the philosophy of perception. The goal of my dissertation is to make a contribution to this enterprise by formulating and defending a new structural approach to perception and perceptual consciousness. The argument for my structural approach is developed in several steps. Firstly, I develop an empirically inspired causal argument against naïve and direct realist conceptions of perceptual consciousness. Basically, the argument says that perception and hallucination can have the same proximal causes and must thus belong to the same mental kind. I emphasise that this insight gives us good reasons to abandon what we are instinctively driven to believe - namely that perception is directly about the outside physical world. The causal argument essentially highlights that the information that the subject acquires in perceiving a worldly object is always indirect. To put it another way, the argument shows that what we, as perceivers, are immediately aware of, is not an aspect of the world but an aspect of our sensory response to it. A view like this is traditionally known as a Representative Theory of Perception. As a second step, emphasis is put on the task of defending and promoting a new structural version of the Representative Theory of Perception; one that is immune to some major objections that have been standardly levelled at other Representative Theories of Perception. As part of this defence and promotion, I argue that it is only the structural features of perceptual experiences that are fit to represent the empirical world. This line of thought is backed up by a detailed study of the intriguing phenomenon of synaesthesia. More precisely, I concentrate on empirical cases of synaesthetic experiences and argue that some of them provide support for a structural approach to perception. The general picture that emerges in this dissertation is a new perspective on perceptual consciousness that is structural through and through.
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Epidemiological studies indicate that the consumption of fructose-containing caloric sweeteners (FCCS: mainly sucrose and high-fructose corn syrup) is associated with obesity. The hypothesis that FCCS plays a causal role in the development of obesity however implies that they would impair energy balance to a larger extent than other nutrients, either by increasing food intake, or by decreasing energy expenditure. We therefore reviewed the literature comparing a) diet-induced thermogenesis (DIT) after ingestion of isocaloric FCCS vs glucose meals, and b) basal metabolic rate (BMR) or c) post-prandial energy expenditure after consuming a high FCCS diet for > 3 days vs basal,weight-maintenance low FCCS diet. Nine studies compared the effects of single isocaloric FCCS and glucose meals on DIT; of them, six studies reported that DIT was significantly higher with FCCS than with glucose, 2 reported a non-significant increase with FCCS, and one reported no difference. The higher DIT with fructose than glucose can be explained by the low energy efficiency associated with fructose metabolism. Five studies compared BMR after consumption of a high FCCS vs a low FCCS diet for > 3 days. Four studies reported no change after 4-7 day on a high FCCS diet, and only one study reported a 7% decrease after 12 week on a high FCCS diet. Three studies compared post-prandial EE after consumption of a high FCCS vs a low FCCS diet for > 3 days, and did not report any significant difference. One study compared 24-EE in subjects fed a weight-maintenance diet and hypercaloric diets with 50% excess energy as fructose, sucrose and glucose during 4 days: 24-EE was increased with all 3 hypercaloric diets, but there was no difference between fructose, sucrose and glucose. We conclude that fructose has lower energy efficiency than glucose. Based on available studies, there is presently no hint that dietary FCCS may decrease EE. Larger, well controlled studies are however needed to assess the longer term effects of FCCS on EE.
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The experiential sampling method (ESM) was used to collect data from 74 parttimestudents who described and assessed the risks involved in their current activitieswhen interrupted at random moments by text messages. The major categories ofperceived risk were short-term in nature and involved loss of time or materials relatedto work and physical damage (e.g., from transportation). Using techniques of multilevelanalysis, we demonstrate effects of gender, emotional state, and types of risk onassessments of risk. Specifically, females do not differ from males in assessing thepotential severity of risks but they see these as more likely to occur. Also, participantsassessed risks to be lower when in more positive self-reported emotional states. Wefurther demonstrate the potential of ESM by showing that risk assessments associatedwith current actions exceed those made retrospectively. We conclude by notingadvantages and disadvantages of ESM for collecting data about risk perceptions.
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It is well accepted that people resist evidence that contradicts their beliefs.Moreover, despite their training, many scientists reject results that are inconsistent withtheir theories. This phenomenon is discussed in relation to the field of judgment anddecision making by describing four case studies. These concern findings that clinical judgment is less predictive than actuarial models; simple methods have proven superiorto more theoretically correct methods in times series forecasting; equal weighting ofvariables is often more accurate than using differential weights; and decisions cansometimes be improved by discarding relevant information. All findings relate to theapparently difficult-to-accept idea that simple models can predict complex phenomenabetter than complex ones. It is true that there is a scientific market place for ideas.However, like its economic counterpart, it is subject to inefficiencies (e.g., thinness,asymmetric information, and speculative bubbles). Unfortunately, the market is only correct in the long-run. The road to enlightenment is bumpy.
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Essential hypertension is a multifactorial disorder and is the main risk factor for renal and cardiovascular complications. The research on the genetics of hypertension has been frustrated by the small predictive value of the discovered genetic variants. The HYPERGENES Project investigated associations between genetic variants and essential hypertension pursuing a 2-stage study by recruiting cases and controls from extensively characterized cohorts recruited over many years in different European regions. The discovery phase consisted of 1865 cases and 1750 controls genotyped with 1M Illumina array. Best hits were followed up in a validation panel of 1385 cases and 1246 controls that were genotyped with a custom array of 14 055 markers. We identified a new hypertension susceptibility locus (rs3918226) in the promoter region of the endothelial NO synthase gene (odds ratio: 1.54 [95% CI: 1.37-1.73]; combined P=2.58 · 10(-13)). A meta-analysis, using other in silico/de novo genotyping data for a total of 21 714 subjects, resulted in an overall odds ratio of 1.34 (95% CI: 1.25-1.44; P=1.032 · 10(-14)). The quantitative analysis on a population-based sample revealed an effect size of 1.91 (95% CI: 0.16-3.66) for systolic and 1.40 (95% CI: 0.25-2.55) for diastolic blood pressure. We identified in silico a potential binding site for ETS transcription factors directly next to rs3918226, suggesting a potential modulation of endothelial NO synthase expression. Biological evidence links endothelial NO synthase with hypertension, because it is a critical mediator of cardiovascular homeostasis and blood pressure control via vascular tone regulation. This finding supports the hypothesis that there may be a causal genetic variation at this locus.
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The aim of this article is a critical review of the main pathogenetic issues debated in Alzheimer disease, with a focus on the clinical perspectives that could derive from. The pertinence of the amyloid cascade hypothesis as a unique and causal explanation of cognitive deterioration is challenged in the light of recent therapeutic failures of clinical trials and increasing role of tau protein in clinical expression. The detection of very early and possibly preclinical stages of the disease emerges as a necessary condition for the efficacy of future amyloid or tau-oriented curative strategies. In this respect, the possibility of finding individual vulnerability markers--in the group of patients with "mild cognitive impairment" or even in cognitively intact subjects--represents a major challenge of the clinical research in this field.
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Youth is one of the phases in the life-cycle when some of the most decisivelife transitions take place. Entering the labour market or leaving parentalhome are events with important consequences for the economic well-beingof young adults. In this paper, the interrelationship between employment,residential emancipation and poverty dynamics is studied for eight Europeancountries by means of an econometric model with feedback effects. Resultsshow that youth poverty genuine state dependence is positive and highly significant.Evidence proves there is a strong causal effect between poverty andleaving home in Scandinavian countries, however, time in economic hardshipdoes not last long. In Southern Europe, instead, youth tend to leave theirparental home much later in order to avoid falling into a poverty state that ismore persistent. Past poverty has negative consequences on the likelihood ofemployment.
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RESUME L'objectif de cette thèse est d'approfondir la compréhension de la transformation des conflits liés à l'utilisation et la répartition des ressources foncières, de l'eau ainsi que des ressources politiques en région aride ou semi-aride. Cette thèse se concentre en particulier sur la façon dont les acteurs et les institutions résolvent les conflits dans un espace dominé par un mode de vie pastoral au sein des pays de la Corne de l'Afrique. Celle-ci réunit des zones périphériques mal contrôlée et caractérisée par une faible administration publique qui coexiste avec des instances coutumières et d'autres autorités. Le cas de la région Somali d'Ethiopie (ou Ogaden) nous démontre que les disputes et les pratiques de gestion des conflits existantes sont encastrées dans les normes, les politiques et les relations de pouvoir locales. Par conséquent, ce travail réfute le déterminisme causal de la littérature des conflits dits environnementaux en soulignant l'existence d'une vaste palette de stratégies de résolution des conflits. Il démontre empiriquement la capacité des éleveurs, des paysans et d'autres utilisateurs de ressources en propriété commune («common- pool resources », CPRs) à coopérer plutôt qu'à se disputer. De la même façon, la préférence idéologique de la plupart des études sur les CPRS pour des groupes d'utilisateurs homogènes et des systèmes de ressources d'utilisation simple est remise en question. En effet, l'existence de multiples ressources naturelles et politiques dans la région Somali d'Ethiopie justifie cette remise en cause. En soulignant l'économie politique dans laquelle se situent les conflits pastoraux et leur gestion cette thèse critique l'approche dépolitisée sur l'utilisation des ressources en propriété commune ainsi que les perspectives technocratiques sur les processus de construction des institutions. Les résultats de recherche marquent le rôle central et souvent inattendu de l'état dans la formation des conflits et la gestion des ressources dans sa périphérie pastorale. Avec |'introduction du fédéralisme ethnique éthiopien et la décentralisation administrative, la construction de l'état à pris une tournure nouvelle dans la région Somali depuis |991 - la période analysée dans cette étude. Ce processus fut accompagné de trois dynamiques parallèles (1) L'expansion des ressources étatiques dans les zones rurales les plus reculées, (2) la politisation des liens de parenté et (3) la redéfinition de la relation entre l'homme et son environnement naturel. En ce qui concerne l'atténuation des conflits, la thèse révèle que le rôle de l'état est spatialement différentié, que l'incorporation des autorités coutumières dans les gouvernements locaux est politiquement ambiguë, et que l'appui sur les lois coutumières ne « gèle » pas forcement les traditions. Les institutions mixtes qui allient règles coutumières et bureaucratiques sont souvent efficaces dans la gestion et la résolution des conflits liés aux ressources en milieu rural, mais pas dans la prévention et la transformation de ces conflits sur le long terme. En ce qui concerne la gestion des ressources, l'étude souligne le fait que les politiques publiques institutionnelles qui ignorent les variations saisonnières de l'utilisation des ressources, la multiplicité des revendications par les utilisateurs des ressources et les droits de propriété non exclusif ne font qu'aggraver des tensions entre divers groupes plutôt que de les atténuer. C'est précisèrent le cas de la décentralisation selon la logique « ethnique » de l'Ethiopie et d'autres politiques publiques sectorielles dont le but est de promouvoir la sédentarisation en incitant les groupes pastoraux à réclamer et occuper les territoires de manière permanente. En conclusion, cette thèse insiste sur (1) l'importance du renforcement du système de régulation au sein du régime institutionnel de ressources pastorales, (2) l'élaboration de nouvelles normes qui produisent des arrangements fonciers reconnus à la fois par les communautés et l'état, (3) la conception de politique publiques qui prennent en compte le périmètre des écosystèmes en place plutôt que des entités ethniques ou politiques et (4) le besoin d'un processus de démocratisation des projets de développement et de la représentation politique en périphéries semi-aride. L'étude est composée des chapitres suivants. Le chapitre 1 introduit les éléments clés des systèmes d'élevage dans la Corne de l'Afrique et les transitions économiques, écologiques et politiques dans lesquelles se situe le pastoralisme nomade. Quelques thèmes récurrents sont ici résumés dont le déclin des économies de cheptel, l'érosion de la gestion des terres arides et l'expansion de l'insécurité physique. Le chapitre 2 dissèque de manière critique le concept de conflit environnemental et les théories de la propriété commune en tant qu'explications théoriques des conflits dits pastoraux. Tandis que le premier décrit la violence comme une réaction à la raréfaction des ressources naturelles due aux pressions démographiques et au changement climatique, les secondes considèrent les confits comme l'expression d'un échec institutionnel de droits de propriété insuffisamment définis. Ce chapitre expose les défauts de ces deux explications et propose une approche alternative qui tient compte des relations de pouvoir, des institutions de gestion des conflits et des ressources naturelles, et de l'écologie non-équilibrée des régions arides. Le chapitre 3 élabore un cadre conceptuel qui rassemble des perspectives empruntées à la littérature portant sur la gestion des ressources naturelles, les techniques de médiation des conflits, les nouvelles théories « new range ecology » et les régimes institutionnels de ressources naturelles. Trois hypothèses décrivent les conditions requises pour prévenir, résoudre ou transformer les conflits liés à l'utilisation multiple des ressources dans les zones pastorales. Elles concernent (1) l'inclusion de partis tiers dans les processus de gestion de confits, (2) l'intégration de règles bureaucratiques et coutumières dans la gestion des ressources et des conflits et (3) le régime institutionnel de ressources naturelles qui concilie des revendications multiples aux ressources CPRs de manière flexible et inclusive. Le chapitre 4 présente les méthodes et la philosophie de recherche qui sous-tendent l'argumentation et l'analyse de la thèse. Il détaille l'opérationnalisation du cadre conceptuel et la sélection des études de cas, le processus de collecte des données et se penche sur les expériences de recherches de terrain de l'auteur. Le chapitre 5 décrit les conflits fonciers dans le district de Harshin où une expansion incontrôlée de clôtures des pâturages a encouragé la prolifération de conflits violents parmi les éleveurs Isaaq depuis la fin des années 1980. L'hétérogénéisation de l'utilisation des ressources, la multiplication des règles de gestion et l'incapacité des anciens à imposer un retour à la propriété commune des pâturages sont les points centraux de cette étude de cas. Le chapitre 6 passe en revue la compétition féroce autour de l'eau le long de la berge très peuplée et fertile du Wabi Shabelle dans le district de K'elafo. L'étude de cas reflète les interactions généalogiques complexes entre les groupes "nobles" et les « communs », la dépendance des cultivateurs Rer Barre du capital et de la technologie, pour les pompes à eaux par exemple, et l'importance continue des pratiques coutumières de gestion de l'agriculture. Le chapitre 7 démontre les rivalités autour du gâteau fiscal dans la capitale de la région Somali, Jijiga, où les partis politiques, les anciens claniques et les technocrates manoeuvrent pour le partage du pouvoir et des positions au sein de l'administration régionale. L'étude de cas rend compte de l'usage politisé du budget public, de l'expansion des ressources étatiques dans les zones rurales à travers la décentralisation, et de l'importance des agents intermédiaires entre les niveaux fédéral, régional et local dans l'allocation des ressources. Le chapitre 8 analyse les rôles et contributions respectifs des anciens et des acteurs étatiques dans la gestion de conflits violents entre les différents groupes dans la région Somali. En révélant les points forts et faibles des processus de paix basés sur les compensations de sang, ce chapitre propose une appréciation nuancée de la proposition (1) concernant l'inclusion de partis tiers dans la gestion de conflit. Le chapitre conclut en soulignant les contradictions et les effets associés à la délégation aux autorités coutumières par l'état Ethiopien de la résolution des conflits et de la maintenance de la sécurité. Le chapitre 9 se concentre sur l'impact des projets de développement financés par l'état et des politiques publiques qui régulent la propriété des terres communes dans les régions pastorales de l'Ethiopie. Ni les politiques publiques sectorielles existantes ni les principes institutionnels du fédéralisme ethnique ne reconnaissent les revendications et utilisations multiples qui se font des ressources dans la région aride et semi- aride, ce qui valide la proposition (3) sur le besoin d'un régime institutionnel de ressources différencié et flexible. Le chapitre attire l'attention sur les aspects contre-productifs d'une administration et d'une représentation politique basées sur un concept territorial, ce qui encourage une occupation permanente des ressources pour des bénéfices politiques. Le chapitre 10 conclut en évaluant la proposition (2) qui concerne l'efficacité de la gestion et de la transformation des conflits basés sur l'intégration des règles et lois coutumières et bureaucratiques. Ce chapitre souligne le rôle controversé mais décisif de la construction et de l'expansion graduelle de l'état dans les périphéries pastorales. Finalement, quelques recommandations sont proposées en vue de l'amélioration de la gestion des conflits et des ressources en milieu pastoral clans la région Somali et des espaces comparables dans la Corne de l'Afrique.
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T O THE E DITOR-Besides viruses, Mycoplasma pneumoniae and Chlamydia pneumoniae are common causes of community-acquired respiratory infections (CARI) in children. However, the causal agent of CARI remains unknown in many cases [ 1]. Growing evidence suggests that Chlamydia-related bacteria might have a pathogenic role in humans [ 2, 3]. Parachlamydia acanthamoebae and Protochlamydia naegleriophila have been detected in respiratory clinical samples [ 4, 5], and the role of Parachlamydia acanthamoebae in pneumonia is supported by in vitro studies and animal models [ 6]. Rhabdochlamydia crassificans and Rhabdochlamydia porcellionis are intracellular pathogens of arthropods that also belong to the Chlamydiales order [ 7, 8]. A recent analysis suggests that Rhabdochlamydia species might affect morbidity and mortality in premature newborns [ 9], but their role ...
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O presente trabalho debruça sobre o estudo do impacto da esquizofrenia na juventude. O objectivo primordial é identificar o impacto dessa patologia nos jovens. Ainda pretende identificar as causas que estão na base da esquizofrenia nessa faixa etária, analisar o índice da doença e os factores associados à mesma, fazendo uma análise documental.Faz uma abordagem referencial aos vários autores que de uma certa forma interpelam a esquizofrenia em diversas dimensões nomeadamente: histórico, causal, conceitual, familiar, as fases, os sintomas, e outros aspectos essenciais para melhor compreensão da temática em estudo. Pretende-se também ressaltar a importância da interacção dos familiares no processo de tratamento, como um factor de recuperação dos doentes; identificar o factor de risco de maior relevância; as limitações que podem ser encontradas a partir da primeira crise de esquizofrenia na faixa etária em questão.Para a realização desse estudo foi utilizada a metodologia qualitativa, utilizando a entrevista e a observação como instrumentos. A amostra foi composta por 10 pacientes (internos e externos), com o diagnóstico de esquizofrenia, que realizam tratamento no Hospital Agostinho Neto (Extensão Trindade). Os pacientes foram escolhidos mediante o critério de idade, estipulado entre 17 a 29 anos. A entrevista foi transcrita mediante um guião que contém itens pertinentes ao tema de investigação, como por exemplo a idade, as dificuldades que o paciente obteve após o diagnóstico da doença, a reacção dos familiares, o envolvimento dos mesmos no processo de recuperação, a sua ocupação, as perspectivas para o futuro, entre outros.A esquizofrenia é um transtorno mental na qual há uma quebra na relação com a realidade. Nem sempre os esquizofrénicos são compreendidos pela sociedade e pelos seus familiares. Alguns são levados para curandeiros à procura de cura, outros são encaminhados de imediato para o centro hospitalar. Porém, mesmo depois da alta hospitalar e de ultrapassada a fase aguda sofrem discriminação na sociedade, inclusive da própria família. Desta forma achamos importante fazer a discrição dos cuidados que a família e a sociedade devem ter com uma pessoa com este diagnóstico, independentemente da fase da doença.