The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons

This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) inChina and India for the period 2012–2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization’sEPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply andcapital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronicrespiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost ofthe five main NCDs will total USD 23.03 trillion for China and USD 4.58 trillion for India (in 2010 USD).For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that thecosts are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher and steeper income trajectory,and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s best buys foraddressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial

Epidemiology of Dysglycemia in Pregnant Oklahoma American Indian Women

CONTEXT: Minority communities are disproportionately affected by diabetes, and minority women are at an increased risk for glucose intolerance (dysglycemia) during pregnancy.

OBJECTIVES: In pregnant American Indian women, the objectives of the study were to use current criteria to estimate the prevalence of first-trimester (Tr1) dysglycemia and second-trimester (Tr2) incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and to explore new candidate measures and identify associated clinical factors.

DESIGN: This was a prospective cohort study. In Tr1 we performed a 75-g, 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) to determine the following: fasting insulin; homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance; serum 1,5-anhydroglucitol; noninvasive skin autofluorescence (SCOUT). We defined dysglycemia by American Diabetes Association and Endocrine Society criteria and as HbA1c of 5.7% or greater. In Tr2 in an available subset, we performed a repeat OGTT and SCOUT.

PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant American Indian women (n = 244 at Tr1; n = 114 at Tr2) participated in the study.

OUTCOMES: The prevalence of dysglycemia at Tr1 and incidence of GDM at Tr2 were measured.

RESULTS: At Tr1, one woman had overt diabetes; 36 (15%) had impaired glucose tolerance (American Diabetes Association criteria and/or abnormal HbA1c) and 59 (24%) had GDM-Tr1 (Endocrine Society criteria). Overall, 74 (30%) had some form of dysglycemia. Associated factors were body mass index, hypertension, waist/hip circumferences, SCOUT score, fasting insulin, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance. At Tr2, 114 of the Tr1 cohort underwent a repeat OGTT and SCOUT, and 26 (23%) had GDM. GDM-Tr2 was associated with increased SCOUT scores (P = .029) and Tr1 body mass index, waist/hip circumferences, diastolic blood pressure, fasting insulin, and triglyceride levels. Overall, dysglycemia at Tr1 and/or Tr2 affected 38% of the women.

CONCLUSIONS: Dysglycemia at some point during pregnancy was common among American Indian women. It was associated with features of insulin resistance and may confer long-term health risks for mother and child.

Abundant genetic overlap between blood lipids and immune-mediated diseases indicates shared molecular genetic mechanisms

Epidemiological studies suggest a relationship between blood lipids and immune-mediated diseases, but the nature of these associations is not well understood. We used genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to investigate shared single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between blood lipids and immune-mediated diseases. We analyzed data from GWAS (n~200,000 individuals), applying new False Discovery Rate (FDR) methods, to investigate genetic overlap between blood lipid levels [triglycerides (TG), low density lipoproteins (LDL), high density lipoproteins (HDL)] and a selection of archetypal immune-mediated diseases (Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, rheumatoid arthritis, type 1 diabetes, celiac disease, psoriasis and sarcoidosis). We found significant polygenic pleiotropy between the blood lipids and all the investigated immune-mediated diseases. We discovered several shared risk loci between the immune-mediated diseases and TG (n = 88), LDL (n = 87) and HDL (n = 52). Three-way analyses differentiated the pattern of pleiotropy among the immune-mediated diseases. The new pleiotropic loci increased the number of functional gene network nodes representing blood lipid loci by 40%. Pathway analyses implicated several novel shared mechanisms for immune pathogenesis and lipid biology, including glycosphingolipid synthesis (e.g. FUT2) and intestinal host-microbe interactions (e.g. ATG16L1). We demonstrate a shared genetic basis for blood lipids and immune-mediated diseases independent of environmental factors. Our findings provide novel mechanistic insights into dyslipidemia and immune-mediated diseases and may have implications for therapeutic trials involving lipid-lowering and anti-inflammatory agents.

Shared common variants in prostate cancer and blood lipids

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological and clinical studies suggest comorbidity between prostate cancer (PCA) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. However, the relationship between these two phenotypes is still not well understood. Here we sought to identify shared genetic loci between PCA and CVD risk factors.

METHODS: We applied a genetic epidemiology method based on conjunction false discovery rate (FDR) that combines summary statistics from different genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and allows identification of genetic overlap between two phenotypes. We evaluated summary statistics from large, multi-centre GWA studies of PCA (n=50 000) and CVD risk factors (n=200 000) [triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, waist-hip ratio and type 2 diabetes (T2D)]. Enrichment of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with PCA and CVD risk factors was assessed with conditional quantile-quantile plots and the Anderson-Darling test. Moreover, we pinpointed shared loci using conjunction FDR.

RESULTS: We found the strongest enrichment of P-values in PCA was conditional on LDL and conditional on TG. In contrast, we found only weak enrichment conditional on HDL or conditional on the other traits investigated. Conjunction FDR identified altogether 17 loci; 10 loci were associated with PCA and LDL, 3 loci were associated with PCA and TG and additionally 4 loci were associated with PCA, LDL and TG jointly (conjunction FDR <0.01). For T2D, we detected one locus adjacent to HNF1B.

CONCLUSIONS: We found polygenic overlap between PCA predisposition and blood lipids, in particular LDL and TG, and identified 17 pleiotropic gene loci between PCA and LDL, and PCA and TG, respectively. These findings provide novel pathobiological insights and may have implications for trials using targeting lipid-lowering agents in a prevention or cancer setting.

Adiposity as a cause of cardiovascular disease: a Mendelian randomization study

Background: Adiposity, as indicated by body mass index (BMI), has been associated with risk of cardiovascular diseases in epidemiological studies. We aimed to investigate if these associations are causal, using Mendelian randomization (MR) methods.

Methods: The associations of BMI with cardiovascular outcomes [coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure and ischaemic stroke], and associations of a genetic score (32 BMI single nucleotide polymorphisms) with BMI and cardiovascular outcomes were examined in up to 22 193 individuals with 3062 incident cardiovascular events from nine prospective follow-up studies within the ENGAGE consortium. We used random-effects meta-analysis in an MR framework to provide causal estimates of the effect of adiposity on cardiovascular outcomes.

Results: There was a strong association between BMI and incident CHD (HR = 1.20 per SD-increase of BMI, 95% CI, 1.12–1.28, P = 1.9·10−7), heart failure (HR = 1.47, 95% CI, 1.35–1.60, P = 9·10−19) and ischaemic stroke (HR = 1.15, 95% CI, 1.06–1.24, P = 0.0008) in observational analyses. The genetic score was robustly associated with BMI (β = 0.030 SD-increase of BMI per additional allele, 95% CI, 0.028–0.033, P = 3·10−107). Analyses indicated a causal effect of adiposity on development of heart failure (HR = 1.93 per SD-increase of BMI, 95% CI, 1.12–3.30, P = 0.017) and ischaemic stroke (HR = 1.83, 95% CI, 1.05–3.20, P = 0.034). Additional cross-sectional analyses using both ENGAGE and CARDIoGRAMplusC4D data showed a causal effect of adiposity on CHD.

Conclusions: Using MR methods, we provide support for the hypothesis that adiposity causes CHD, heart failure and, previously not demonstrated, ischaemic stroke.

Economics of Non-Communicable Diseases in Indonesia

The Economics of Non-Communicable Diseases in Indonesia provides new data on the economic burden of NCDs in the country, and puts it in perspective by drawing a comparison with India and China. With this new addition to the series on the economics of NCDs, the World Economic Forum aims to advance the understanding of the expected economic output loss at the country level, particularly in countries in economic and epidemiological transition. The evidence presented provides a starting point in reorienting the dialogue on investing in healthy living and NCD prevention in Indonesia towards the view that a healthy population is an important factor for sustainable growth.

Fasciola hepatica from naturally infected sheep and cattle in Great Britain are diploid

Diploid (2n = 2x = 20) and triploid (2n = 3x = 30) Fasciola hepatica have been reported in the UK, and in Asia diploid, triploid and mixoploid (2x/3x) Fasciola spp. exist but there is little information to indicate how common triploidy is, particularly in UK fluke. Here the ploidy of 565 adult F. hepatica from 66 naturally infected British sheep and 150 adult F. hepatica from 35 naturally infected British cattle was determined. All 715 of these parasites were diploid, based on observation of 10 bivalent chromosomes and sperm (n = 335) or, since triploids are aspermic, sperm alone (n = 380). This constitutes the first extensive analysis of the ploidy of F. hepatica field isolates from Great Britain and shows that most F. hepatica isolated from cattle and sheep are diploid and have the capacity to sexually reproduce. These data suggest that triploidy, and by extension parthenogenesis, is rare or non-existent in wild British F. hepatica populations. Given that F. hepatica is the only species of Fasciola present in Britain our results indicate that the parasite is predominantly diploid in areas where F. hepatica exists in isolation and suggests that triploidy may only originate in natural populations where co-infection of F. hepatica and its sister species Fasciola gigantica commonly occurs.

A potentiometric biosensor for rapid on-site disease diagnostics

Quantitative point-of-care (POC) devices are the next generation for serological disease diagnosis. Whilst pathogen serology is typically performed by centralized laboratories using Enzyme-Linked ImmunoSorbent Assay (ELISA), faster on-site diagnosis would infer improved disease management and treatment decisions. Using the model pathogen Bovine Herpes Virus-1 (BHV-1) this study employs an extended-gate field-effect transistor (FET) for direct potentiometric serological diagnosis. BHV-1 is a major viral pathogen of Bovine Respiratory Disease (BRD), the leading cause of economic loss ($2 billion annually in the US only) to the cattle and dairy industry. To demonstrate the sensor capabilities as a diagnostic tool, BHV-1 viral protein gE was expressed and immobilized on the sensor surface to serve as a capture antigen for a BHV-1-specific antibody (anti-gE), produced in cattle in response to viral infection. The gE-coated immunosensor was shown to be highly sensitive and selective to anti-gE present in commercially available anti-BHV-1 antiserum and in real serum samples from cattle with results being in excellent agreement with Surface Plasmon Resonance (SPR) and ELISA. The FET sensor is significantly faster than ELISA (<10 min), a crucial factor for successful disease intervention. This sensor technology is versatile, amenable to multiplexing, easily integrated to POC devices, and has the potential to impact a wide range of human and animal diseases.

Data on carotid intima-media thickness and lipoprotein subclasses in type 1 diabetes from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial and the Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (DCCT/EDIC)

Type 1 diabetes (T1DM) is associated with increased risk of macrovascular complications. We examined longitudinal associations of serum conventional lipids and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)-determined lipoprotein subclasses with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) in adults with T1DM (n=455) enrolled in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT). Data on serum lipids and lipoproteins were collected at DCCT baseline (1983-89) and were correlated with common and internal carotid IMT determined by ultrasonography during the observational follow-up of the DCCT, the Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC) study, at EDIC 'Year 1' (199-1996) and EDIC 'Year 6' (1998-2000). This article contains data on the associations of DCCT baseline lipoprotein profiles (NMR-based VLDL & chylomicrons, IDL/LDL and HDL subclasses and 'conventional' total, LDL-, HDL-, non-HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides) with carotid IMT at EDIC Years 1 and 6, stratified by gender. The data are supplemental to our original research article describing detailed associations of DCCT baseline lipids and lipoprotein profiles with EDIC Year 12 carotid IMT (Basu et al. in press) [1].

Issues in the epidemiology and population-based screening of primary angle-closure glaucoma

Among Caucasians, it is well known that 75-95% of primary glaucoma is due to open-angle glaucoma (POAG), with angle-closure (PACG) comprising only a very small minority of cases. These figures are reversed among other groups such as Asians and Eskimos, where PACG makes up 80-90% of primary glaucoma. Among Eskimos, the prevalence of PACG has been reported as 2-8%, as compared to 0.1% among Caucasians. It appears that a population tendency toward shallow anterior chambers may explain the excess burden of PACG morbidity. Among Asians, the prevalence of PACG is intermediate between Caucasians and Eskimos. Existing biometrical data do not show a clear tendency toward shallower anterior chambers among Asians. PACG may be screened for on a population basis by means of various techniques that estimate axial or limbal anterior chamber depth, measure intraocular pressure, or evaluate the optic disc or visual fields. Demographic information and medical and family history will also be of great importance in screening for PACG in large populations. Groups at increased risk for the disease include women, individuals over 50, first-degree relatives of PACG probands, and hyperopes.