Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

A cocktail of thermally stable, chemically synthesized capture agents for the efficient detection of anti-gp41 antibodies from human sera and techniques

This thesis reports on a method to improve in vitro diagnostic assays that detect immune response, with specific application to HIV-1. The inherent polyclonal diversity of the humoral immune response was addressed by using sequential in situ click chemistry to develop a cocktail of peptide-based capture agents, the components of which were raised against different, representative anti-HIV antibodies that bind to a conserved epitope of the HIV-1 envelope protein gp41. The cocktail was used to detect anti-HIV-1 antibodies from a panel of sera collected from HIV-positive patients, with improved signal-to-noise ratio relative to the gold standard commercial recombinant protein antigen. The capture agents were stable when stored as a powder for two months at temperatures close to 60°C.

An investigation of techniques for the measurement and interpretation of cosmic ray isotopic abundances

An instrument, the Caltech High Energy Isotope Spectrometer Telescope (HEIST), has been developed to measure isotopic abundances of cosmic ray nuclei in the charge range 3 ≤ Z ≤ 28 and the energy range between 30 and 800 MeV/nuc by employing an energy loss -- residual energy technique. Measurements of particle trajectories and energy losses are made using a multiwire proportional counter hodoscope and a stack of CsI(TI) crystal scintillators, respectively. A detailed analysis has been made of the mass resolution capabilities of this instrument.

Landau fluctuations set a fundamental limit on the attainable mass resolution, which for this instrument ranges between ~.07 AMU for z~3 and ~.2 AMU for z~2b. Contributions to the mass resolution due to uncertainties in measuring the path-length and energy losses of the detected particles are shown to degrade the overall mass resolution to between ~.1 AMU (z~3) and ~.3 AMU (z~2b).

A formalism, based on the leaky box model of cosmic ray propagation, is developed for obtaining isotopic abundance ratios at the cosmic ray sources from abundances measured in local interstellar space for elements having three or more stable isotopes, one of which is believed to be absent at the cosmic ray sources. This purely secondary isotope is used as a tracer of secondary production during propagation. This technique is illustrated for the isotopes of the elements O, Ne, S, Ar and Ca.

The uncertainties in the derived source ratios due to errors in fragmentation and total inelastic cross sections, in observed spectral shapes, and in measured abundances are evaluated. It is shown that the dominant sources of uncertainty are uncorrelated errors in the fragmentation cross sections and statistical uncertainties in measuring local interstellar abundances.

These results are applied to estimate the extent to which uncertainties must be reduced in order to distinguish between cosmic ray production in a solar-like environment and in various environments with greater neutron enrichments.

Self-healing Techniques for RF and mm-Wave Transmitters and Receivers

With continuing advances in CMOS technology, feature sizes of modern Silicon chip-sets have gone down drastically over the past decade. In addition to desktops and laptop processors, a vast majority of these chips are also being deployed in mobile communication devices like smart-phones and tablets, where multiple radio-frequency integrated circuits (RFICs) must be integrated into one device to cater to a wide variety of applications such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, NFC, wireless charging, etc. While a small feature size enables higher integration levels leading to billions of transistors co-existing on a single chip, it also makes these Silicon ICs more susceptible to variations. A part of these variations can be attributed to the manufacturing process itself, particularly due to the stringent dimensional tolerances associated with the lithographic steps in modern processes. Additionally, RF or millimeter-wave communication chip-sets are subject to another type of variation caused by dynamic changes in the operating environment. Another bottleneck in the development of high performance RF/mm-wave Silicon ICs is the lack of accurate analog/high-frequency models in nanometer CMOS processes. This can be primarily attributed to the fact that most cutting edge processes are geared towards digital system implementation and as such there is little model-to-hardware correlation at RF frequencies.

All these issues have significantly degraded yield of high performance mm-wave and RF CMOS systems which often require multiple trial-and-error based Silicon validations, thereby incurring additional production costs. This dissertation proposes a low overhead technique which attempts to counter the detrimental effects of these variations, thereby improving both performance and yield of chips post fabrication in a systematic way. The key idea behind this approach is to dynamically sense the performance of the system, identify when a problem has occurred, and then actuate it back to its desired performance level through an intelligent on-chip optimization algorithm. We term this technique as self-healing drawing inspiration from nature's own way of healing the body against adverse environmental effects. To effectively demonstrate the efficacy of self-healing in CMOS systems, several representative examples are designed, fabricated, and measured against a variety of operating conditions.

We demonstrate a high-power mm-wave segmented power mixer array based transmitter architecture that is capable of generating high-speed and non-constant envelope modulations at higher efficiencies compared to existing conventional designs. We then incorporate several sensors and actuators into the design and demonstrate closed-loop healing against a wide variety of non-ideal operating conditions. We also demonstrate fully-integrated self-healing in the context of another mm-wave power amplifier, where measurements were performed across several chips, showing significant improvements in performance as well as reduced variability in the presence of process variations and load impedance mismatch, as well as catastrophic transistor failure. Finally, on the receiver side, a closed-loop self-healing phase synthesis scheme is demonstrated in conjunction with a wide-band voltage controlled oscillator to generate phase shifter local oscillator (LO) signals for a phased array receiver. The system is shown to heal against non-idealities in the LO signal generation and distribution, significantly reducing phase errors across a wide range of frequencies.

Injection Locked Clocking and Transmitter Equalization Techniques for Chip to Chip Interconnects

Semiconductor technology scaling has enabled drastic growth in the computational capacity of integrated circuits (ICs). This constant growth drives an increasing demand for high bandwidth communication between ICs. Electrical channel bandwidth has not been able to keep up with this demand, making I/O link design more challenging. Interconnects which employ optical channels have negligible frequency dependent loss and provide a potential solution to this I/O bandwidth problem. Apart from the type of channel, efficient high-speed communication also relies on generation and distribution of multi-phase, high-speed, and high-quality clock signals. In the multi-gigahertz frequency range, conventional clocking techniques have encountered several design challenges in terms of power consumption, skew and jitter. Injection-locking is a promising technique to address these design challenges for gigahertz clocking. However, its small locking range has been a major contributor in preventing its ubiquitous acceptance.

In the first part of this dissertation we describe a wideband injection locking scheme in an LC oscillator. Phase locked loop (PLL) and injection locking elements are combined symbiotically to achieve wide locking range while retaining the simplicity of the latter. This method does not require a phase frequency detector or a loop filter to achieve phase lock. A mathematical analysis of the system is presented and the expression for new locking range is derived. A locking range of 13.4 GHz–17.2 GHz (25%) and an average jitter tracking bandwidth of up to 400 MHz are measured in a high-Q LC oscillator. This architecture is used to generate quadrature phases from a single clock without any frequency division. It also provides high frequency jitter filtering while retaining the low frequency correlated jitter essential for forwarded clock receivers.

To improve the locking range of an injection locked ring oscillator; QLL (Quadrature locked loop) is introduced. The inherent dynamics of injection locked quadrature ring oscillator are used to improve its locking range from 5% (7-7.4GHz) to 90% (4-11GHz). The QLL is used to generate accurate clock phases for a four channel optical receiver using a forwarded clock at quarter-rate. The QLL drives an injection locked oscillator (ILO) at each channel without any repeaters for local quadrature clock generation. Each local ILO has deskew capability for phase alignment. The optical-receiver uses the inherent frequency to voltage conversion provided by the QLL to dynamically body bias its devices. A wide locking range of the QLL helps to achieve a reliable data-rate of 16-32Gb/s and adaptive body biasing aids in maintaining an ultra-low power consumption of 153pJ/bit.

From the optical receiver we move on to discussing a non-linear equalization technique for a vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) based optical transmitter, to enable low-power, high-speed optical transmission. A non-linear time domain optical model of the VCSEL is built and evaluated for accuracy. The modelling shows that, while conventional FIR-based pre-emphasis works well for LTI electrical channels, it is not optimum for the non-linear optical frequency response of the VCSEL. Based on the simulations of the model an optimum equalization methodology is derived. The equalization technique is used to achieve a data-rate of 20Gb/s with power efficiency of 0.77pJ/bit.