Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Simulit, un modèle de simulation pour la planification hospitalière. [Simulit, a simulation model for hospital planning].

The aim of this computerized simulation model is to provide an estimate of the number of beds used by a population, taking into accounts important determining factors. These factors are demographic data of the deserved population, hospitalization rates, hospital case-mix and length of stay; these parameters can be taken either from observed data or from scenarii. As an example, the projected evolution of the number of beds in Canton Vaud for the period 1893-2010 is presented.

Simulation and Analysis of Arterial Traffic Operations Along the U.S. 61 Corridor in Burlington, Iowa, 1998

The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) used the traffic simulation model CORSIM to access proposed capacity and safety improvement strategies for the U.S. 61 corridor through Burlington, Iowa. The comparison between the base and alternative models allow for evaluation of the traffic flow performance under the existing conditions as well as other design scenarios. The models also provide visualization of performance for interpretation by technical staff, public policy makers, and the public. The objectives of this project are to evaluate the use of traffic simulation models for future use by the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) and to develop procedures for employing simulation modeling to conduct the analysis of alternative designs. This report presents both the findings of the U.S. 61 evaluation and an overview of model development procedures. The first part of the report includes the simulation modeling development procedures. The simulation analysis is illustrated through the Burlington U.S. 61 corridor case study application. Part I is not intended to be a user manual but simply introductory guidelines for traffic simulation modeling. Part II of the report evaluates the proposed improvement concepts in a side by side comparison of the base and alternative models.

Estudi de la influència del vent en l’estabilitat de vehicles pesants de transport de viatgers.

Investigacions recents revelen com l’acció del vent lateral és un efecte molt important en bona part dels accidents ocorreguts en vehicles pesants de transport per carretera. És per això que el perfil aerodinàmic del vehicle esdevé determinant en l’avaluació de les forces laterals que hi actuen.El present projecte té per objecte determinar les forces laterals que s’exerceixen en vehicles pesants de transport de passatgers degut a l’acció del vent i investigar-ne la seva perillositat. Per fer-ho s’utilitzen models numèrics de dinàmica de fluids i, per diferents velocitats del vehicle, es simulen vents amb diferent intensitat i direcció. D’aquí es determinen unes condicions de perillositat en funció, entre d’altres variables, de l’angle d’incidència del vent i de la seva velocitat

G alpha-q/11 protein plays a key role in insulin-induced glucose transport in 3T3-L1 adipocytes.

We evaluated the role of the G alpha-q (Galphaq) subunit of heterotrimeric G proteins in the insulin signaling pathway leading to GLUT4 translocation. We inhibited endogenous Galphaq function by single cell microinjection of anti-Galphaq/11 antibody or RGS2 protein (a GAP protein for Galphaq), followed by immunostaining to assess GLUT4 translocation in 3T3-L1 adipocytes. Galphaq/11 antibody and RGS2 inhibited insulin-induced GLUT4 translocation by 60 or 75%, respectively, indicating that activated Galphaq is important for insulin-induced glucose transport. We then assessed the effect of overexpressing wild-type Galphaq (WT-Galphaq) or a constitutively active Galphaq mutant (Q209L-Galphaq) by using an adenovirus expression vector. In the basal state, Q209L-Galphaq expression stimulated 2-deoxy-D-glucose uptake and GLUT4 translocation to 70% of the maximal insulin effect. This effect of Q209L-Galphaq was inhibited by wortmannin, suggesting that it is phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3-kinase) dependent. We further show that Q209L-Galphaq stimulates PI3-kinase activity in p110alpha and p110gamma immunoprecipitates by 3- and 8-fold, respectively, whereas insulin stimulates this activity mostly in p110alpha by 10-fold. Nevertheless, only microinjection of anti-p110alpha (and not p110gamma) antibody inhibited both insulin- and Q209L-Galphaq-induced GLUT4 translocation, suggesting that the metabolic effects induced by Q209L-Galphaq are dependent on the p110alpha subunit of PI3-kinase. In summary, (i) Galphaq appears to play a necessary role in insulin-stimulated glucose transport, (ii) Galphaq action in the insulin signaling pathway is upstream of and dependent upon PI3-kinase, and (iii) Galphaq can transmit signals from the insulin receptor to the p110alpha subunit of PI3-kinase, which leads to GLUT4 translocation.

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulation for the local-scale characterization of heterogeneous aquifers

Simulated-annealing-based conditional simulations provide a flexible means of quantitatively integrating diverse types of subsurface data. Although such techniques are being increasingly used in hydrocarbon reservoir characterization studies, their potential in environmental, engineering and hydrological investigations is still largely unexploited. Here, we introduce a novel simulated annealing (SA) algorithm geared towards the integration of high-resolution geophysical and hydrological data which, compared to more conventional approaches, provides significant advancements in the way that large-scale structural information in the geophysical data is accounted for. Model perturbations in the annealing procedure are made by drawing from a probability distribution for the target parameter conditioned to the geophysical data. This is the only place where geophysical information is utilized in our algorithm, which is in marked contrast to other approaches where model perturbations are made through the swapping of values in the simulation grid and agreement with soft data is enforced through a correlation coefficient constraint. Another major feature of our algorithm is the way in which available geostatistical information is utilized. Instead of constraining realizations to match a parametric target covariance model over a wide range of spatial lags, we constrain the realizations only at smaller lags where the available geophysical data cannot provide enough information. Thus we allow the larger-scale subsurface features resolved by the geophysical data to have much more due control on the output realizations. Further, since the only component of the SA objective function required in our approach is a covariance constraint at small lags, our method has improved convergence and computational efficiency over more traditional methods. Here, we present the results of applying our algorithm to the integration of porosity log and tomographic crosshole georadar data to generate stochastic realizations of the local-scale porosity structure. Our procedure is first tested on a synthetic data set, and then applied to data collected at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site.

Cation Transport Coupled to ATP Hydrolysis By the (Na, K)-ATPase : an integrated, animated model

An Adobe (R) animation is presented for use in undergraduate Biochemistry courses, illustrating the mechanism of Na+ and K+ translocation coupled to ATP hydrolysis by the (Na, K)-ATPase, a P-2c-type ATPase, or ATP-powered ion pump that actively translocates cations across plasma membranes. The enzyme is also known as an E-1/E-2-ATPase as it undergoes conformational changes between the E-1 and E-2 forms during the pumping cycle, altering the affinity and accessibility of the transmembrane ion-binding sites. The animation is based on Horisberger's scheme that incorporates the most recent significant findings to have improved our understanding of the (Na, K)-ATPase structure function relationship. The movements of the various domains within the (Na, K)-ATPase alpha-subunit illustrate the conformational changes that occur during Na+ and K+ translocation across the membrane and emphasize involvement of the actuator, nucleotide, and phosphorylation domains, that is, the "core engine" of the pump, with respect to ATP binding, cation transport, and ADP and P-i release.

Receptor occupancy vs. induction of Na+-K+-ATPase and Na+ transport by aldosterone.

In the urinary bladder of the toad Bufo marinus aldosterone (between 0.8 and 100 nM) stimulates Na+ transport [half-maximal induction concentration (K1/2) = 6.5 nM]. At low hormone concentrations (0.8-8 nM), the increase of Na+ transport between 0.75 and 2.5 h is accompanied by a fall in transepithelial resistance (R). Higher hormone concentrations (30-800 nM) induce an additional resistance-independent fraction of Na+ transport within 2.5-8 h. From 6 h on, aldosterone (between 0.2 and 20 nM) stimulates in the same tissue the biosynthesis rate of the alpha- and beta-subunits of Na+-K+-ATPase (K1/2 = 3 and 1.5 nM, respectively). New pump synthesis is thus not a prerequisite for the early mineralocorticoid response but might be linked to the late transport event. The mineralocorticoid response is usually ascribed to interaction with the higher affinity type 1 receptor. In the present study we show, however, that at least 55% of the overall Na+ transport response is linked to nuclear occupation of the lower affinity type 2 receptors [dissociation constant (Kd) = 50 nM, maximum number of binding sites (Nmax) = 315 fmol/mg protein]. Distinct aldosterone effects, such as the fall in R and the increase in Na+-K+-ATPase synthesis, are more closely related to occupation of type 1 receptors (Kd = 0.3 nM, Nmax = 23 fmol/mg protein). At maximal induction of these latter parameters, only about 20% of type 2 receptors are occupied. These results suggest that both types of aldosterone receptors are involved in the mediation of the full mineralocorticoid response: type 1 in the early and late and type 2 particularly in the late tissue response.

Harvesting and transport of root biomass from fast-growing poplar plantations

Abstract

Cluster glasses of ultrasoft particles

We present molecular dynamics (MD) simulations results for dense fluids of ultrasoft, fully penetrable particles. These are a binary mixture and a polydisperse system of particles interacting via the generalized exponential model, which is known to yield cluster crystal phases for the corresponding monodisperse systems. Because of the dispersity in the particle size, the systems investigated in this work do not crystallize and form disordered cluster phases. The clusteringtransition appears as a smooth crossover to a regime in which particles are mostly located in clusters, isolated particles being infrequent. The analysis of the internal cluster structure reveals microsegregation of the big and small particles, with a strong homo-coordination in the binary mixture. Upon further lowering the temperature below the clusteringtransition, the motion of the clusters" centers-of-mass slows down dramatically, giving way to a cluster glass transition. In the cluster glass, the diffusivities remain finite and display an activated temperature dependence, indicating that relaxation in the cluster glass occurs via particle hopping in a nearly arrested matrix of clusters. Finally we discuss the influence of the microscopic dynamics on the transport properties by comparing the MD results with Monte Carlo simulations.

Effects of erythropoietin on muscle O2 transport during exercise in patients with chronic renal failure.

Erythropoietin (rHuEPO) has proven to be effective in the treatment of anemia of chronic renal failure (CRF). Despite improving the quality of life, peak oxygen uptake after rHuEPO therapy is not improved as much as the increase in hemoglobin concentration ([Hb)] would predict. We hypothesized that this discrepancy is due to failure of O2 transport rates to rise in a manner proportional to [Hb]. To test this, eight patients with CRF undergoing regular hemodialysis were studied pre- and post-rHuEPO ([Hb] = 7.5 +/- 1.0 vs. 12.5 +/- 1.0 g x dl-1) using a standard incremental cycle exercise protocol. A group of 12 healthy sedentary subjects of similar age and anthropometric characteristics served as controls. Arterial and femoral venous blood gas data were obtained and coupled with simultaneous measurements of femoral venous blood flow (Qleg) by thermodilution to obtain O2 delivery and oxygen uptake (VO2). Despite a 68% increase in [Hb], peak VO2 increased by only 33%. This could be explained largely by reduced peak leg blood flow, limiting the gain in O2 delivery to 37%. At peak VO2, after rHuEPO, O2 supply limitation of maximal VO2 was found to occur, permitting the calculation of a value for muscle O2 conductance from capillary to mitochondria (DO2). While DO2 was slightly improved after rHuEPO, it was only 67% of that of sedentary control subjects. This kept maximal oxygen extraction at only 70%. Two important conclusions can be reached from this study. First, the increase in [Hb] produced by rHuEPO is accompanied by a significant reduction in peak blood flow to exercising muscle, which limits the gain in oxygen transport. Second, even after restoration of [Hb], O2 conductance from the muscle capillary to the mitochondria remains considerably below normal.

Monte Carlo simulation of a clearance box monitor used for nuclear power plant decommissioning.

When decommissioning a nuclear facility it is important to be able to estimate activity levels of potentially radioactive samples and compare with clearance values defined by regulatory authorities. This paper presents a method of calibrating a clearance box monitor based on practical experimental measurements and Monte Carlo simulations. Adjusting the simulation for experimental data obtained using a simple point source permits the computation of absolute calibration factors for more complex geometries with an accuracy of a bit more than 20%. The uncertainty of the calibration factor can be improved to about 10% when the simulation is used relatively, in direct comparison with a measurement performed in the same geometry but with another nuclide. The simulation can also be used to validate the experimental calibration procedure when the sample is supposed to be homogeneous but the calibration factor is derived from a plate phantom. For more realistic geometries, like a small gravel dumpster, Monte Carlo simulation shows that the calibration factor obtained with a larger homogeneous phantom is correct within about 20%, if sample density is taken as the influencing parameter. Finally, simulation can be used to estimate the effect of a contamination hotspot. The research supporting this paper shows that activity could be largely underestimated in the event of a centrally-located hotspot and overestimated for a peripherally-located hotspot if the sample is assumed to be homogeneously contaminated. This demonstrates the usefulness of being able to complement experimental methods with Monte Carlo simulations in order to estimate calibration factors that cannot be directly measured because of a lack of available material or specific geometries.