Learning technology and patterns of teaching

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Tracing the Origin and Spread of Agriculture in Europe

The origins of early farming and its spread to Europe have been the subject of major interest for some time. The main controversy today is over the nature of the Neolithic transition in Europe: the extent to which the spread was, for the most part, indigenous and animated by imitatio (cultural diffusion) or else was driven by an influx of dispersing populations (demic diffusion). We analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of the transition using radiocarbon dates from 735 early Neolithic sites in Europe, the Near East, and Anatolia. We compute great-circle and shortest-path distances from each site to 35 possible agricultural centers of origin—ten are based on early sites in the Middle East and 25 are hypothetical locations set at 58 latitude/longitude intervals. We perform a linear fit of distance versus age (and vice versa) for each center. For certain centers, high correlation coefficients (R . 0.8) are obtained. This implies that a steady rate or speed is a good overall approximation for this historical development. The average rate of the Neolithic spread over Europe is 0.6–1.3 km/y (95% confidence interval). This is consistent with the prediction of demic diffusion(0.6–1.1 km/y). An interpolative map of correlation coefficients, obtained by using shortest-path distances, shows that the origins of agriculture were most likely to have occurred in the northern Levantine/Mesopotamian area

Knowledge-based modelling and simulation of operational problems of microbiological origin in wastewater treatment plants

The activated sludge and anaerobic digestion processes have been modelled in widely accepted models. Nevertheless, these models still have limitations when describing operational problems of microbiological origin. The aim of this thesis is to develop a knowledge-based model to simulate risk of plant-wide operational problems of microbiological origin.For the risk model heuristic knowledge from experts and literature was implemented in a rule-based system. Using fuzzy logic, the system can infer a risk index for the main operational problems of microbiological origin (i.e. filamentous bulking, biological foaming, rising sludge and deflocculation). To show the results of the risk model, it was implemented in the Benchmark Simulation Models. This allowed to study the risk model's response in different scenarios and control strategies. The risk model has shown to be really useful providing a third criterion to evaluate control strategies apart from the economical and environmental criteria.

Reintroduction of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Muga and Fluvià basins (north-eastern Spain): viability, development, monitoring and trends of the new population

Aquesta tesi es basa en el programa de reintroducció de la llúdriga eurasiàtica (Lutra lutra) a les conques dels rius Muga i Fluvià (Catalunya) durant la segona meitat dels 1990s. Els objectius de la tesi foren demostrar la viabilitat de la reintroducció, demostrar l'èxit de la mateixa, estudiar aspectes ecològics i etològics de l'espècie, aprofitant l'oportunitat única de gaudir d'una població "de disseny" i determinar les probabilitats de supervivència de la població a llarg termini. La reintroducció de la llúdriga a les conques dels rius Muga i Fluvià va reeixir, doncs l'àrea geogràfica ocupada efectivament es va incrementar fins a un 64% d'estacions positives a l'hivern 2001-02. La troballa de tres exemplars adults nascuts a l'àrea de reintroducció és una altra prova que valida l'èxit del programa. La densitat d'exemplars calculada a través dels censos visuals ha resultat baixa (0.04-0.11 llúdrigues/km), però s'aproxima al que hom pot esperar en els primers estadis d'una població reintroduïda, encara poc nombrosa però distribuïda en una gran àrea. La mortalitat post-alliberament va ser del 22% un any després de l'alliberament, similar o inferior a la d'altres programes de reintroducció de llúdrigues reeixits. La mortalitat va ser deguda principalment a atropellaments (56%). El patró d'activitat de les llúdrigues reintroduïdes va esdevenir principalment nocturn i crepuscular, amb una escassa activitat diürna. Les seves àrees vitals van ser del mateix ordre (34,2 km) que les calculades en d'altres estudis realitzats a Europa. La longitud mitjana de riu recorreguda per una llúdriga durant 24 hores va ser de 4,2 km per les femelles i 7,6 km pels mascles. Durant el període de radioseguiment dues femelles van criar i els seus moviments van poder ser estudiats amb deteniment. La resposta de la nova població de llúdrigues a les fluctuacions estacionals en la disponibilitat d'aigua, habitual a les regions mediterrànies, va consistir en la concentració en una àrea menor durant el període de sequera estival, a causa de l'increment de trams secs, inhabitables per la llúdriga per la manca d'aliment, fet que va provocar expansions i contraccions periòdiques en l'àrea de distribució. La persistència a llarg termini de la població reintroduïda va ser estudiada mitjançant una Anàlisi de Viabilitat Poblacional (PVA). El resultat va ser un baix risc d'extinció de la població en els propers 100 anys i la majoria dels escenaris simulats (65%) van assolir el criteri d'un mínim de 90% de probabilitat de supervivència. Del model poblacional construït es dedueix que un punt clau per assegurar la viabilitat de la població reintroduïda és la reducció de la mortalitat accidental. A l'àrea d'estudi, els atropellaments causen més del 50% de la mortalitat i aquesta pot ser reduïda mitjançant la construcció de passos de fauna, el tancament lateral d'alguns trams de carretera perillosos i el control de la velocitat en algunes vies. El projecte de reintroducció ha posat a punt un protocol per a la captura, maneig i alliberament de llúdrigues salvatges, que pot contenir informació útil per a programes similars. També ha suposat una oportunitat única d'estudiar una població dissenyada artificialment i poder comparar diversos mètodes per estimar la distribució i la densitat de poblacions de llúdrigues. Per últim, la reintroducció portada a terme a les conques dels rius Muga i Fluvià ha aconseguit crear una nova població de llúdrigues, que persisteix en el temps, que es reprodueix regularment i que es dispersa progressivament, fins i tot a noves conques fluvials.

The mean evolution and variability of the Asian summer monsoon: Comparison of ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses

The behavior of the Asian summer monsoon is documented and compared using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (ERA) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) Reanalysis. In terms of seasonal mean climatologies the results suggest that, in several respects, the ERA is superior to the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis. The overall better simulation of the precipitation and hence the diabatic heating field over the monsoon domain in ERA means that the analyzed circulation is probably nearer reality. In terms of interannual variability, inconsistencies in the definition of weak and strong monsoon years based on typical monsoon indices such as All-India Rainfall (AIR) anomalies and the large-scale wind shear based dynamical monsoon index (DMI) still exist. Two dominant modes of interannual variability have been identified that together explain nearly 50% of the variance. Individually, they have many features in common with the composite flow patterns associated with weak and strong monsoons, when defined in terms of regional AIR anomalies and the large-scale DMI. The reanalyses also show a common dominant mode of intraseasonal variability that describes the latitudinal displacement of the tropical convergence zone from its oceanic-to-continental regime and essentially captures the low-frequency active/break cycles of the monsoon. The relationship between interannual and intraseasonal variability has been investigated by considering the probability density function (PDF) of the principal component of the dominant intraseasonal mode. Based on the DMI, there is an indication that in years with a weaker monsoon circulation, the PDF is skewed toward negative values (i,e., break conditions). Similarly, the PDFs for El Nino and La Nina years suggest that El Nino predisposes the system to more break spells, although the sample size may limit the statistical significance of the results.

Modelling the movement and survival of the root-feeding clover weevil, Sitona lepidus, in the root-zone of white clover

White clover (Trifolium repens) is an important pasture legume but is often difficult to sustain in a mixed sward because, among other things, of the damage to roots caused by the soil-dwelling larval stages of S. lepidus. Locating the root nodules on the white clover roots is crucial for the survival of the newly hatched larvae. This paper presents a numerical model to simulate the movement of newly hatched S. lepidus larvae towards the root nodules, guided by a chemical signal released by the nodules. The model is based on the diffusion-chemotaxis equation. Experimental observations showed that the average speed of the larvae remained approximately constant, so the diffusion-chernotaxis model was modified so that the larvae respond only to the gradient direction of the chemical signal but not its magnitude. An individual-based lattice Boltzmann method was used to simulate the movement of individual larvae, and the parameters required for the model were estimated from the measurement of larval movement towards nodules in soil scanned using X-ray microtomography. The model was used to investigate the effects of nodule density, the rate of release of chemical signal, the sensitivity of the larvae to the signal, and the random foraging of the larvae on the movement and subsequent survival of the larvae. The simulations showed that the most significant factors for larval survival were nodule density and the sensitivity of the larvae to the signal. The dependence of larval survival rate on nodule density was well fitted by the Michealis-Menten kinetics. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Observed trends and teleconnections of the Siberian high: A recently declining center of action

This study investigates variability in the intensity of the wintertime Siberian high (SH) by defining a robust SH index (SHI) and correlating it with selected meteorological fields and teleconnection indices. A dramatic trend of -2.5 hPa decade(-1) has been found in the SHI between 1978 and 2001 with unprecedented (since 1871) low values of the SHI. The weakening of the SH has been confirmed by analyzing different historical gridded analyses and individual station observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and excluding possible effects from the conversion of surface pressure to SLP. SHI correlation maps with various meteorological fields show that SH impacts on circulation and temperature patterns extend far outside the SH source area extending from the Arctic to the tropical Pacific. Advection of warm air from eastern Europe has been identified as the main mechanism causing milder than normal conditions over the Kara and Laptev Seas in association with a strong SH. Despite the strong impacts of the variability in the SH on climatic variability across the Northern Hemisphere, correlations between the SHI and the main teleconnection indices of the Northern Hemisphere are weak. Regression analysis has shown that teleconnection indices are not able to reproduce the interannual variability and trends in the SH. The inclusion of regional surface temperature in the regression model provides closer agreement between the original and reconstructed SHI.

Analysis and application of ichnofabrics

Bioturbation at all scales, which tends to replace the primary fabric of a sediment by the ichnofabric (the overall fabric of a sediment that has been bioturbated), is now recognised as playing a major role in facies interpretation. The manner in which the substrate may be colonized, and the physical, chemical and ecological controls (grainsize, sedimentation rate, oxygenation, nutrition, salinity, ethology, community structure and succession), together with the several ways in which the substrate is tiered by bioturbators, are the factors and processes that determine the nature of the ichnofabric. Eleven main styles of substrate tiering are described, ranging from single, pioneer colonization to complex tiering under equilibria, their modification under environmental deterioration and amelioration, and diagenetic enhancement or obscuration. Ichnofabrics may be assessed by four attributes: primary sedimentary factors, Bioturbation Index (BI), burrow size and frequency, and ichnological diversity. Construction of tier and ichnofabric constituent diagrams aid visualization and comparison. The breaks or changes in colonization and style of tiering at key stratal surfaces accentuate the surfaces, and many reflect a major environmental shift of the trace-forming biota. due to change in hydrodynamic regime (leading to non-deposition and/or erosion and/or lithification), change in salinity regime, or subaerial exposure. The succession of gradational or abrupt changes in ichnofabric through genetically related successions, together with changes in colonization and tiering across event beds, may also be interpreted in terms of changes in environmental parameters. It is not the ichnotaxa per se that are important in discriminating between ichnofabrics, but rather the environmental conditions that determine the overall style of colonization. Fabrics composed of different ichnotaxa (and different taphonomies) but similar tier structure and ichnoguild may form in similar environments of different age or different latitude. Appreciation of colonization and tiering styles places ancient ichnofabrics on a sound processrelated basis for environmental interpretation. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the movement and survival of the root-feeding clover weevil, Sitona lepidus, in the root-zone of white clover

White clover (Trifolium repens) is an important pasture legume but is often difficult to sustain in a mixed sward because, among other things, of the damage to roots caused by the soil-dwelling larval stages of S. lepidus. Locating the root nodules on the white clover roots is crucial for the survival of the newly hatched larvae. This paper presents a numerical model to simulate the movement of newly hatched S. lepidus larvae towards the root nodules, guided by a chemical signal released by the nodules. The model is based on the diffusion-chemotaxis equation. Experimental observations showed that the average speed of the larvae remained approximately constant, so the diffusion-chernotaxis model was modified so that the larvae respond only to the gradient direction of the chemical signal but not its magnitude. An individual-based lattice Boltzmann method was used to simulate the movement of individual larvae, and the parameters required for the model were estimated from the measurement of larval movement towards nodules in soil scanned using X-ray microtomography. The model was used to investigate the effects of nodule density, the rate of release of chemical signal, the sensitivity of the larvae to the signal, and the random foraging of the larvae on the movement and subsequent survival of the larvae. The simulations showed that the most significant factors for larval survival were nodule density and the sensitivity of the larvae to the signal. The dependence of larval survival rate on nodule density was well fitted by the Michealis-Menten kinetics. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.