Analysis of electric vehicle charging using the traditional generation expansion planning analysis tool WASP-IV

Electric vehicles (EV) are proposed as a measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in transport and support increased wind power penetration across modern power systems. Optimal benefits can only be achieved, if EVs are deployed effectively, so that the exhaust emissions are not substituted by additional emissions in the electricity sector, which can be implemented using Smart Grid controls. This research presents the results of an EV roll-out in the all island grid (AIG) in Ireland using the long term generation expansion planning model called the Wien Automatic System Planning IV (WASP-IV) tool to measure carbon dioxide emissions and changes in total energy. The model incorporates all generators and operational requirements while meeting environmental emissions, fuel availability and generator operational and maintenance constraints to optimize economic dispatch and unit commitment power dispatch. In the study three distinct scenarios are investigated base case, peak and off-peak charging to simulate the impacts of EV’s in the AIG up to 2025.

General practitioners perceptions on advance care planning for patients living with dementia

BACKGROUND: Advance care planning (ACP) facilitates communication and understanding of preferences, nevertheless the use of ACPs in primary care is low. The uncertain course of dementia and the inability to communicate with the patient living with dementia are significant challenges for GPs to initiate discussions on goals of care.

METHODS: A cross-sectional survey, using a purposive, cluster sample of GPs across Northern Ireland with registered dementia patients was used. GPs at selected practices received the survey instrument and up to four mail contacts was implemented.

RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-three GPs (40.6%) participated in the survey, representing 60.9% of surveyed practices. While most respondents regarded dementia as a terminal disease (96.2%) only 37.6% felt that palliative care applied equally from the time of diagnosis to severe dementia. While most respondents thought that early discussions would facilitate decision-making during advanced dementia (61%), respondents were divided on whether ACP should be initiated at the time of diagnoses. While most respondents felt that GPs should take the initiative to introduce and encourage ACP, most survey participants acknowledged the need for improved knowledge to involve families in caring for patients with dementia at the end of life and that a standard format for ACP documentation was needed.

CONCLUSION: Optimal timing of ACP discussions should be determined by the readiness of the patient and family carer to face to face end of life. ACP discussions can be enhanced by educational strategies directed towards the patient and family carer that enable shared decision-making with their GP when considering options in future care.

Planning Urban Food Production into Today’s Cities

If cities are to become more sustainable and resilient to change it is likely that they will have to engage with food at increasingly localised levels, in order to reduce their dependency on global systems. With 87 percent of people in developed regions estimated to be living in cities by 2050 it can be assumed that the majority of this localised production will occur in and around cities. As part of a 12 month engagement, Queen’s University Belfast designed and implemented an elevated aquaponic food system spanning the top internal floor and exterior roof space of a disused mill in Manchester, England. The experimental aquaponic system was developed to explore the possibilities and difficulties associated with integrating food production with existing buildings. This paper utilises empirical research regarding crop growth from the elevated aquaponic system and extrapolates the findings across a whole city. The resulting research enables the agricultural productive capacity of today’s cities to be estimated and a framework of implementation to be proposed.

Planning Urban Food Production into Today's Cities

If cities are to become more sustainable and resilient to change it is likely that they will have to engage with food at increasingly localised levels, in order to reduce their dependancy on global systems. With 87 percent of developed regions estimated to be living in cities by 2050 it can be assumed that the majority of this localised production will occur in and around cities.
As part of a 12 month engagement, Queen’s University Belfast designed and implemented an elevated aquaponic food system spanning the top floor and exterior roof space of a disused mill in Manchester, England. The experimental aquaponic system was developed to explore the possibilities and difficulties associated with containing fish tanks, filtration units, vertical growing systems and roof top growing systems within and upon existing buildings, including the structural considerations needed when undertaking such transformations. Although capable of producing 4000 crops at any one time, the elevated aquaponic system utilised space within the existing building, which could otherwise be used as lettable area, and also located some crop growth within the building where light levels are reduced.
The following paper takes the research collected from the elevated aquaponic system and extrapolates the findings across a whole city. The resulting research enables the agricultural productive capacity of todays cities to be determined and a frame work of implementation to be developed for city wide food production. The research focuses specifically on facade and roof based systems, thus elevating the need to utilise lettable area within cities in addition to locating crops where light levels are highest.

The Day After Tomorrow: Transition Management, Spatial Planning & the Low Carbon Economy

Many of the societal challenges that current spatial planning practice claims to be addressing (climate change, peak oil, obesity, aging society etc) encompass issues and timescales that lie beyond the traditional scope planning policy (Campbell 2006). The example of achieving a low carbon economy typifies this in that it demands a process of society-wide transition, involving steering a wide range of factors (markets, infrastructure, governance, individual behaviour etc). Such a process offers a challenge to traditional approaches to planning as they cannot be guided by a fixed blueprint, given the timescales involved (up to 50 years) and an enhanced level of uncertainty, social resistance, lack of control over implementation and a danger of ‘policy lock in’ (Kemp et al 2007). One approach to responding to these challenges is the concept of transition management which has emerged from studies of science, technology and innovation (Geels 2002, Markard et al 2012). Although not without criticism, this perspective attempts to uncertainty and complexity encompassing long term visions that integrates multi-level, multi-actor and multi-domain perspectives (Rotmans et al 2001).
 
Given its origins, research on transition management has tended to neglect spatial contexts (Coenen et al 2012) and, related to this, it’s relationship with spatial planning is poorly understood. Using the example of the low carbon transition, this paper will review the relationships between the concepts, methodologies and goals of transition management and spatial planning to explore whether a closer integration of the two fields offers benefits to achieving the long term challenges facing society.
 

City of Dreams? Belfast, planning and the ‘myth’ of development

The future of Belfast is found in its plans – beginning with 1945 planning proposals to the recently adopted Belfast Metropolitan Area Plan, these documents have aimed to encourage and channel urban development processes to secure collective outcomes that enhance the public interest. Central to this objective has been the idea of ‘development’ and in this paper we interrogate the representation of this concept in the urban discourse of Belfast. We seek to do this by first exploring how ‘development’ and associated concepts are articulated in key spatial policy documents and then contrast these with examples of some of the key physical, spatial outcomes of economic processes that have occurred in the last ten years. The paper will review the dominant trajectories of urban change in Belfast, consider their implications and relate these to the official goals and aspirations represented in planning strategies and regeneration visions for the city. In doing this we draw on the recent work of Marcuse (2015) to identify how ideas of ‘development’ and ‘growth’ have been used to anonymise, harmonize and homogenise the outcomes of these spatial processes. The paper will conclude by considering how Belfast’s urban discourse acts to suppresses alternative visions of the city and explores the potential consequences of this for the new governance arrangements for planning in Belfast.

Probabilistic Planning in AgentSpeak using the POMDP framework.

AgentSpeak is a logic-based programming language, based on the Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) paradigm, suitable for building complex agent-based systems. To limit the computational complexity, agents in AgentSpeak rely on a plan library to reduce the planning problem to the much simpler problem of plan selection. However, such a plan library is often inadequate when an agent is situated in an uncertain environment. In this paper, we propose the AgentSpeak+ framework, which extends AgentSpeak with a mechanism for probabilistic planning. The beliefs of an AgentSpeak+ agent are represented using epistemic states to allow an agent to reason about its uncertain observations and the uncertain effects of its actions. Each epistemic state consists of a POMDP, used to encode the agent’s knowledge of the environment, and its associated probability distribution (or belief state). In addition, the POMDP is used to select the optimal actions for achieving a given goal, even when facing uncertainty.

The Impact of Colleague Peer Review on the Radiotherapy Treatment Planning Process in the Radical Treatment of Lung Cancer

AIMS: Modern radiotherapy uses techniques to reliably identify tumour and reduce target volume margins. However, this can potentially lead to an increased risk of geographic miss. One source of error is the accuracy of target volume delineation (TVD). Colleague peer review (CPR) of all curative-intent lung cancer plans has been mandatory in our institution since May 2013. At least two clinical oncologists review plans, checking treatment paradigm, TVD, prescription dose tumour and critical organ tolerances. We report the impact of CPR in our institution.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Radiotherapy treatment plans of all patients receiving radical radiotherapy were presented at weekly CPR meetings after their target volumes were reviewed and signed off by the treating consultant. All cases and any resultant change to TVD (including organs at risk) or treatment intent were recorded in our prospective CPR database. The impact of CPR over a 13 month period from May 2013 to June 2014 is reported.

RESULTS: One hundred and twenty-two patients (63% non-small cell lung carcinoma, 17% small cell lung carcinoma and 20% 'clinical diagnosis') were analysed. On average, 3.2 cases were discussed per meeting (range 1-8). CPR resulted in a change in treatment paradigm in 3% (one patient proceeded to induction chemotherapy, two patients had high-dose palliative radiotherapy). Twenty-one (17%) had a change in TVD and one (1%) patient had a change in dose prescription. In total, 6% of patients had plan adjustment after review of dose volume histogram.

CONCLUSION: The introduction of CPR in our centre has resulted in a change in a component of the treatment plan for 27% of patients receiving curative-intent lung radiotherapy. We recommend CPR as a mandatory quality assurance step in the planning process of all radical lung plans.

A Reliability Assessment Approach for the Urban Energy System and Its Application in Energy Hub Planning

With the increasing utilization of combined heat and power plants (CHP), electrical, gas, and thermal systems are becoming tightly integrated in the urban energy system (UES). However, the three systems are usually planned and operated separately, ignoring their interactions and coordination. To address this issue, the coupling point of different systems in the UES is described by the energy hub model. With this model, an integrated load curtailment method is proposed for the UES. Then a Monte Carlo simulation based approach is developed to assess the reliability of coordinated energy supply systems. Based on this approach, a reliability-optimal energy hub planning method is proposed to accommodate higher renewable energy penetration. Numerical studies indicate that the proposed approach is able to quantify the UES reliability with different structures. Also, optimal energy hub planning scheme can be determined to ensure the reliability of the UES with high renewable penetration.

Review of the area planning process (a)

The area planning process continues and formal recommendations arising from it are now being brought forward as development proposals to amalgamate or close schools. At this point in the process the Education Committee requested some comment on five different aspects of the process: the impact of Area Planning to date; the validity of the surplus school vacancy calculation methodology; the Annual Area Profile information; the Needs Model (including as appropriate the implications of the Drumragh judgement); possible enhancements to the consultation and communication process;the facilitation of alternative cross-sectoral or cross-border solutions. This paper offers high level comment on each of these issues. In addition, the Education Committee facilitated a stakeholder consultation meeting in Parliament Buildings on 4 February, 2015. The broad themes that emerged in that discussion will also be mentioned in this paper.

Review of the area planning process (b)

This paper offers a commentary on the area planning reports form primary schools published by each of the Education and Library Boards (ELB) in June 2014. The format of the reports are broadly similar for each ELB, although there are some differences amongst them. All provide an overview on the policy context for the area planning process, a statistical picture of the schools in the ELB and detail on the issues considered for sets of schools within the ELB.