Using multifractals to evaluate oceanographic model skill

We are in an era of unprecedented data volumes generated from observations and model simulations. This is particularly true from satellite Earth Observations (EO) and global scale oceanographic models. This presents us with an opportunity to evaluate large scale oceanographic model outputs using EO data. Previous work on model skill evaluation has led to a plethora of metrics. The paper defines two new model skill evaluation metrics. The metrics are based on the theory of universal multifractals and their purpose is to measure the structural similarity between the model predictions and the EO data. The two metrics have the following advantages over the standard techniques: a) they are scale-free, b) they carry important part of information about how model represents different oceanographic drivers. Those two metrics are then used in the paper to evaluate the performance of the FVCOM model in the shelf seas around the south-west coast of the UK.

Using multifractals to evaluate oceanographic model skill

We are in an era of unprecedented data volumes generated from observations and model simulations. This is particularly true from satellite Earth Observations (EO) and global scale oceanographic models. This presents us with an opportunity to evaluate large scale oceanographic model outputs using EO data. Previous work on model skill evaluation has led to a plethora of metrics. The paper defines two new model skill evaluation metrics. The metrics are based on the theory of universal multifractals and their purpose is to measure the structural similarity between the model predictions and the EO data. The two metrics have the following advantages over the standard techniques: a) they are scale-free, b) they carry important part of information about how model represents different oceanographic drivers. Those two metrics are then used in the paper to evaluate the performance of the FVCOM model in the shelf seas around the south-west coast of the UK.

Teaching morphology trough communicative approach and cooperative learning in Secondary Education: practical proposal

We will be presenting the following practical proposal that will consist of two sessions implemented with different courses of Secondary Education (ESO) of the Colegio Círculo Católico (Catholic School Group), located in the city of Burgos. Each session lasts 55 minutes. These sessions focus on the morphology of the Spanish language. Its design has been carried out by keeping in mind the theoretical basis of the communicative approach and cooperative learning.

Characterising granuloma regression and liver recovery in a murine model of schistosomiasis japonica

For hepatic schistosomiasis the egg-induced granulomatous response and the development of extensive fibrosis are the main pathologies. We used a Schistosoma japonicum-infected mouse model to characterise the multi-cellular pathways associated with the recovery from hepatic fibrosis following clearance of the infection with the anti-schistosomal drug, praziquantel. In the recovering liver splenomegaly, granuloma density and liver fibrosis were all reduced. Inflammatory cell infiltration into the liver was evident, and the numbers of neutrophils, eosinophils and macrophages were significantly decreased. Transcriptomic analysis revealed the up-regulation of fatty acid metabolism genes and the identification of Peroxisome proliferator activated receptor alpha as the upstream regulator of liver recovery. The aryl hydrocarbon receptor signalling pathway which regulates xenobiotic metabolism was also differentially up-regulated. These findings provide a better understanding of the mechanisms associated with the regression of hepatic schistosomiasis.

Simplified model for prediction of compressive strength of alkali-activated natural pozzolans

The assessment of pozzolanic activity is essential for estimating the reaction of a material as pozzolan. Natural pozzolans can be activated and condensed with sodium silicate in an alkaline environment to synthesize high performance cementitious construction materials with low environmental impact. In this paper, the pozzolanic activities of five natural pozzolans are studied. The correlation between type and chemical composition of natural pozzolan, which affects the formation of the geopolymer gel phase, both for the calcined and untreated natural pozzolans, have been reviewed. The improvement in pozzolanic properties was studied following heat treatment including calcinations and/or elevated curing temperature by using alkali solubility, and compressive strength tests. A model was developed to allow prediction of the alkali-activated pozzolan strength versus their chemical compositions, alkali solubility, and crystallinity.

Conservative fluid management or deresuscitation for patients with sepsis or acute respiratory distress syndrome following the resuscitation phase of critical illness: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

It is unknown whether a conservative approach to fluid administration or deresuscitation (active removal of fluid using diuretics or renal replacement therapy) is beneficial following haemodynamic stabilisation of critically ill patients.

Purpose

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of conservative or deresuscitative fluid strategies in adults and children with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), sepsis or systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in the post-resuscitation phase of critical illness.

Methods

We searched Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane central register of controlled trials from 1980 to June 2016, and manually reviewed relevant conference proceedings from 2009 to the present. Two reviewers independently assessed search results for inclusion and undertook data extraction and quality appraisal. We included randomised trials comparing fluid regimens with differing fluid balances between groups, and observational studies investigating the relationship between fluid balance and clinical outcomes.

Results

Forty-nine studies met the inclusion criteria. Marked clinical heterogeneity was evident. In a meta-analysis of 11 randomised trials (2051 patients) using a random-effects model, we found no significant difference in mortality with conservative or deresuscitative strategies compared with a liberal strategy or usual care [pooled risk ratio (RR) 0.92, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.82–1.02, I2 = 0 %]. A conservative or deresuscitative strategy resulted in increased ventilator-free days (mean difference 1.82 days, 95 % CI 0.53–3.10, I2 = 9 %) and reduced length of ICU stay (mean difference −1.88 days, 95 % CI −0.12 to −3.64, I2 = 75 %) compared with a liberal strategy or standard care.

Conclusions

In adults and children with ARDS, sepsis or SIRS, a conservative or deresuscitative fluid strategy results in an increased number of ventilator-free days and a decreased length of ICU stay compared with a liberal strategy or standard care. The effect on mortality remains uncertain. Large randomised trials are needed to determine optimal fluid strategies in critical illness.

Impact de la cécité sur le système nociceptif

La vision joue un rôle très important dans la prévention du danger. La douleur a aussi pour fonction de prévenir les lésions corporelles. Nous avons donc testé l’hypothèse qu’une hypersensibilité à la douleur découlerait de la cécité en guise de compensation sensorielle. En effet, une littérature exhaustive indique qu’une plasticité intermodale s’opère chez les non-voyants, ce qui module à la hausse la sensibilité de leurs sens résiduels. De plus, plusieurs études montrent que la douleur peut être modulée par la vision et par une privation visuelle temporaire. Dans une première étude, nous avons mesuré les seuils de détection thermique et les seuils de douleur chez des aveugles de naissance et des voyants à l’aide d’une thermode qui permet de chauffer ou de refroidir la peau. Les participants ont aussi eu à quantifier la douleur perçue en réponse à des stimuli laser CO2 et à répondre à des questionnaires mesurant leur attitude face à des situations douloureuses de la vie quotidienne. Les résultats obtenus montrent que les aveugles congénitaux ont des seuils de douleur plus bas et des rapports de douleur plus élevés que leurs congénères voyants. De plus, les résultats psychométriques indiquent que les non-voyants sont plus attentifs à la douleur. Dans une deuxième étude, nous avons mesuré l’impact de l'expérience visuelle sur la perception de la douleur en répliquant la première étude dans un échantillon d’aveugles tardifs. Les résultats montrent que ces derniers sont en tous points similaires aux voyants quant à leur sensibilité à la douleur. Dans une troisième étude, nous avons testé les capacités de discrimination de température des aveugles congénitaux, car la détection de changements rapides de température est cruciale pour éviter les brûlures. Il s’est avéré que les aveugles de naissance ont une discrimination de température plus fine et qu’ils sont plus sensibles à la sommation spatiale de la chaleur. Dans une quatrième étude, nous avons examiné la contribution des fibres A∂ et C au traitement nociceptif des non-voyants, car ces récepteurs signalent la première et la deuxième douleur, respectivement. Nous avons observé que les aveugles congénitaux détectent plus facilement et répondent plus rapidement aux sensations générées par l’activation des fibres C. Dans une cinquième et dernière étude, nous avons sondé les changements potentiels qu’entrainerait la perte de vision dans la modulation descendante des intrants nociceptifs en mesurant les effets de l’appréhension d’un stimulus nocif sur la perception de la douleur. Les résultats montrent que, contrairement aux voyants, les aveugles congénitaux voient leur douleur exacerbée par l’incertitude face au danger, suggérant ainsi que la modulation centrale de la douleur est facilitée chez ces derniers. En gros, ces travaux indiquent que l’absence d’expérience visuelle, plutôt que la cécité, entraine une hausse de la sensibilité nociceptive, ce qui apporte une autre dimension au modèle d’intégration multi-sensorielle de la vision et de la douleur.

Examining the Longitudinal Stability of a Dual-Factor Model of Mental Health in Early Elementary School Students

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

The Role of G Protein In Alcohol Related Behaviours Using Drosophila melanogaster As A Model

Ethanol, classified as a drug, affects the central nervous system, and its consumption has been linked to the development of several behaviours including tolerance and dependence. Alcohol tolerance is defined as the need for higher doses of alcohol to induce the same changes observed in the initial exposure or where repetitive exposures of the same alcohol dose induce a lower response. Ethanol has been shown to interact with numerous targets and ultimately influence both short and long term adaptation at the cellular and molecular level in brain [1]. These adaptation processes are likely to involve signalling molecules: our work has focussed on G proteins gene expression. Using both wild type and several mutant fruit fly (Drosophila melanogaster) as a model for behaviour and molecular studies, we observed significant increases in sedation time (ST50) in response to alcohol (P<0.001) Fig.A. We also observed a consistent and significant decrease of Gq protein mRNA expression in Drosophila dUNC and DopR2 mutants chronically exposed to alcohol (*P<0.05). Fig B. Method: Six male flies were observed in drosophila polystyrene 25 x 95mm transparent vial in between cotton plugs. To the top plug, 500uL of 100% ethanol was added. Time till 50% of the flies were sedated was recorded on each day following the schedule. Fig. C (n=4-6). Using RT-PCR, we also quantified G protein mRNA expression levels one hour post initial 30 minutes of ethanol expression on day 1 and day 3 relative to expression in naïve flies.(n=2) [A] Increase in sedation time indicative of tolerance in different mutant lines and wild type flies. Six male flies were used in each experiment and (n= 4-6. ***P<0.001 unpaired t tests). [B] RT-PCR results showing significant reduction in Gq mRNA in flies chronically exposed to alcohol. (n=2. *P<0.05) [C] Alcohol exposure schedule. (1) Kaun K.R., R. Azanchi, Z. Maung, J. Hirsh, U. Heberlein. (2011). A Drosophila model for alcohol reward. Nature Neuroscience. 14 (5), 612–619.

The FIREDASS (Fire Detection and Suppression Simulation) Model

The FIREDASS (FIRE Detection And Suppression Simulation) project is concerned with the development of fine water mist systems as a possible replacement for the halon fire suppression system currently used in aircraft cargo holds. The project is funded by the European Commission, under the BRITE EURAM programme. The FIREDASS consortium is made up of a combination of Industrial, Academic, Research and Regulatory partners. As part of this programme of work, a computational model has been developed to help engineers optimise the design of the water mist suppression system. This computational model is based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and is composed of the following components: fire model; mist model; two-phase radiation model; suppression model and detector/activation model. The fire model - developed by the University of Greenwich - uses prescribed release rates for heat and gaseous combustion products to represent the fire load. Typical release rates have been determined through experimentation conducted by SINTEF. The mist model - developed by the University of Greenwich - is a Lagrangian particle tracking procedure that is fully coupled to both the gas phase and the radiation field. The radiation model - developed by the National Technical University of Athens - is described using a six-flux radiation model. The suppression model - developed by SINTEF and the University of Greenwich - is based on an extinguishment crietrion that relies on oxygen concentration and temperature. The detector/ activation model - developed by Cerberus - allows the configuration of many different detector and mist configurations to be tested within the computational model. These sub-models have been integrated by the University of Greenwich into the FIREDASS software package. The model has been validated using data from the SINTEF/GEC test campaigns and it has been found that the computational model gives good agreement with these experimental results. The best agreement is obtained at the ceiling which is where the detectors and misting nozzles would be located in a real system. In this paper the model is briefly described and some results from the validation of the fire and mist model are presented.

Student attitudes towards cooperative learning in education

Abstract: Active or participatory learning by the student within a classroom environment has been fairly recently recognized as an effective, efficient, and superior instructional technique yet few teachers in higher education have adopted this pedagogical strategy. This is especially true in Science where teachers primarily lecture to passively seated students while using static visual aids or multimedia projections. Teachers generally teach as they were taught and lecture formats have been the norm. Although student-learning theories as well as student learning styles, abilities, and understanding strategies have changed, traditional teaching techniques have not evolved past the “chalk and talk” instructional strategy. This research looked into student’s perceptions of cooperative learning or team-based active learning in order to gain insight and some understanding as to how students felt about this learning technique. Student’s attitudes were then compared to student grades to detennine whether cooperative learning impeded or ameliorated academic performance. The results revealed significant differences measured in all the survey questions pertaining to perception or attitudes. As a result of the cooperative learning activities, respondents indicated more agreement to the survey questions pertaining to the benefits of cooperative learning. The experimental group exposed to cooperative learning thus experienced more positive attitudes and perceptions than the groups exposed only to a lecture-based teaching and learning format. Each of the hypotheses tested demonstrated that students had more positive attitudes towards cooperative learning strategies. Recommendations as to future work were presented in order to gain a greater understanding into both student and teacher attitudes towards the cooperative learning model.||Résumé: Lapprentissage actif ou préparatoire par létudiant au sein d’une classe a été reconnu assez récemment comme une technique d’enseignement plus efficace. Cependant, peu d’enseignants ont adopté cette stratégie pedagogique pour l'éducation post-secondaire. Ceci est particulièrement le cas dans le domaine des sciences où les enseignants font surtout usage de cours magistraux avec des étudiants passifs tout en utilisant des aides visuelles statiques ou des projections multimédias. Les professeurs enseignent generalement comme on leur a eux-même enseigné et les cours magistraux ont été la norme par le passé. Les techniques traditionnelles d'enseignernent n'ont pas évolué au-delà de la craie et du tableau noir et ce même si les théories sur l’apprentissage par les étudiants ont changé, tout comme les styles, les habiletés et les stratégies de compréhension d’apprentissage des étudiants. Cette recherche se penche sur les perceptions des étudiants au sujet de l'apprentissage coopératif ou de l'apprentissage actif par équipe de telle sorte qu'on puisse avoir un aperçu et une certaine compréhension de comment les étudiants se sentent par rapport à ces techniques d'apprentissage. Les attitudes des étudiants ont par la suite été comparées aux notes de ceux-ci pour déterminer si l'apprentissage coopératif avait nui ou au contraire amélioré leurs performances académiques. Les résultats obtenus dans l'étude d'ensemble révèlent des différences significatives dans toutes les questions ayant trait à la perception et aux attitudes.

A long-term energy efficiency prediction model for the Brazilian automotive industry

According to law number 12.715/2012, Brazilian government instituted guidelines for a program named Inovar-Auto. In this context, energy efficiency is a survival requirement for Brazilian automotive industry from September 2016. As proposed by law, energy efficiency is not going to be calculated by models only. It is going to be calculated by the whole universe of new vehicles registered. In this scenario, the composition of vehicles sold in market will be a key factor on profits of each automaker. Energy efficiency and its consequences should be taken into consideration in all of its aspects. In this scenario, emerges the following question: which is the efficiency curve of one automaker for long term, allowing them to adequate to rules, keep balancing on investment in technologies, increasing energy efficiency without affecting competitiveness of product lineup? Among several variables to be considered, one can highlight the analysis of manufacturing costs, customer value perception and market share, which characterizes this problem as a multi-criteria decision-making. To tackle the energy efficiency problem required by legislation, this paper proposes a framework of multi-criteria decision-making. The proposed framework combines Delphi group and Analytic Hierarchy Process to identify suitable alternatives for automakers to incorporate in main Brazilian vehicle segments. A forecast model based on artificial neural networks was used to estimate vehicle sales demand to validate expected results. This approach is demonstrated with a real case study using public vehicles sales data of Brazilian automakers and public energy efficiency data.

SYSTEMS OF DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONSTHAT ARE COMPETITIVE OR COOPERATIVE II:CONVERGENCE ALMOST EVERYWHERE*MORRIS W. HIRSCH

A vector field in n-space determines a competitive (or cooperative) system of differential equations provided all of the off-diagonal terms of its Jacobian matrix are nonpositive (or nonnegative). The main results in this article are the following. A cooperative system cannot have nonconstant attracting periodic solutions. In a cooperative system whose Jacobian matrices are irreducible the forward orbit converges for almost every point having compact forward orbit closure. In a cooperative system in 2 dimensions, every solution is eventually monotone.  Applications are made to generalizations of positive feedback loops.

Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological (= impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K-1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

A coupled movement and bioenergetics model to explore the spawning migration of anchovy in the Bay of Biscay

Adult anchovies in the Bay of Biscay perform north to south migration from late winter to early summer for spawning. However, what triggers and drives the geographic shift of the population remains unclear and poorly understood. An individual-based fish model has been implemented to explore the potential mechanisms that control anchovy's movement routes toward its spawning habitats. To achieve this goal, two fish movement behaviors – gradient detection through restricted area search and kinesis – simulated fish response to its dynamic environment. A bioenergetics model was used to represent individual growth and reproduction along the fish trajectory. The environmental forcing (food, temperature) of the model was provided by a coupled physical–biogeochemical model. We followed a hypothesis-testing strategy to actualize a series of simulations using different cues and computational assumptions. The gradient detection behavior was found as the most suitable mechanism to recreate the observed shift of anchovy distribution under the combined effect of sea-surface temperature and zooplankton. In addition, our results suggested that southward movement occurred more actively from early April to middle May following favorably the spatio-temporal evolution of zooplankton and temperature. In terms of fish bioenergetics, individuals who ended up in the southern part of the bay presented better condition based on energy content, proposing the resulting energy gain as an ecological explanation for this migration. The kinesis approach resulted in a moderate performance, producing distribution pattern with the highest spread. Finally, model performance was not significantly affected by changes on the starting date, initial fish distribution and number of particles used in the simulations, whereas it was drastically influenced by the adopted cues.