Barn Owl (Tyto alba) breeding biology in relation to breeding season climate

Winter weather has a strong influence on Barn Owl (Tyto alba) breeding biology. Here, we analyzed the impacts of weather conditions on reproductive performance during the breeding season using data collected over 22 years in a Swiss Barn Owl population. Variations in rain and temperature during the breeding season played an important role in within-year variation in Barn Owl reproduction. An increase in rainfall during the period from 4 to 2 weeks preceding egg laying had a positive effect on clutch size. In contrast, fledgling body mass was negatively influenced by rainfall during the 24 h preceding the measurements. Finally, ambient temperature during the rearing period was positively associated with brood size at fledging. In conclusion, weather conditions during the breeding season place constraints on Barn Owl reproduction.

Effects of leaf compounds, climate and natural enemies on the incidence of thrips in cassava

The objective of this study was to determine the effects of rainfall, temperature, sunlight and relative humidity, as well as predators and parasitoids, leaf chemical composition and levels of leaf nitrogen and potassium on the intensity of Scirtothrips manihoti (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) attack on cassava Manihot esculenta Crantz var. Cacau. The leaf compounds (E)-farnesene/trans-farnesol and D-friedoolean-14-en-3-one correlated significantly with the population of S. manihoti. Insect population decreased in the dry and cold season probably due to leaf senescence. Significative correlation was observed between Syrphidae with S. manihoti populations.

Urban Governance und nachhaltige Quartiere: Ein Beitrag zur Förderung einer dauerhaft nachhaltigen Stadtentwicklung

Seit den 1990er Jahren werden zunehmend nachhaltige Quartiere realisiert. Dabei besteht häufig eine beachtliche Diskrepanz zwischen den Zielen, die von den beteiligten Akteuren angestrebt werden, deren Umsetzung (Realisierungsphase) und deren Erhalt auf Dauer (Nutzungsphase). Es stellt sich folglich die Frage, auf welche Weise die Projektqualität im Sinne einer nachhaltigen Quartiersentwicklung verbessert werden kann. Diese Projekte sind jedoch enorm komplex aufgrund der großen Interdisziplinarität und Interdependenz ihrer Ziele sowie der vielschichtigen Akteursstrukturen. Sie stellen daher be-sonders hohe Anforderungen an die Projektsteuerung. Das konkrete Ziel dieser Arbeit besteht darin, die Bedeutung einer Prozesssteuerung im Sinne von Urban Governance zur Realisierung und zum Erhalt nachhaltiger Quartiere zu untersuchen. Damit soll einen Beitrag zur Förderung einer nachhalti-gen Stadtentwicklung geleistet werden. Die Arbeit stützt sich auf ein umfassendes theoretisches Fundament zum Thema Governance, wobei die relevanten Elemente für den Kontext nachhaltiger Quartiere herausgearbeitet werden. Die Hypothesen prüfen die Bedeutung der Schlüsselcharakteristika von Urban Governance (Kooperation, Partizipation, Verhandlungen) für die Projektqualität während der Realisierungs- und Nutzungsphase. Eine erste empirische Untersuchung wurde an zwanzig europäischen nachhaltigen Modellquartieren vorgenommen. Stärken und Schwächen aus der Perspektive der Nachhaltigkeit werden analysiert, deren Ursachen identifiziert und Handlungsoptio-nen aufgezeigt. Die Erkenntnisse zeigen die Notwendigkeit einer Verbesserung der Projektsteuerung während der Realisierungs- und der Nutzungsphase. Auf der Grundlage dieser Erkenntnisse wird ein umfassender Ansatz zur empirischen Untersuchung von Urban Governance im Kontext nachhaltiger Quartiere entwickelt. Dieser beruht auf dem akteurzentrierten Institutionalismus und den Merkmalen der Urban Governance. Anhand dieses Ansatzes wird mithilfe von Experteninterviews der Realisierungsprozess des nach-haltigen Quartiers Kronsberg (Hannover) analysiert. Betrachtet werden dabei die beteiligten Akteure und ihre Handlungso-rientierungen, die verwendeten Schlüsselinstrumente sowie aufgetretene Divergenzen zwischen Akteuren und deren Auswirkungen auf die Projekt- und Prozessqualität. Eine Vertiefung relevanter Themenfelder wird anhand der Fallstudie Neu-Oerlikon (Zürich) vorgenommen. Diese empirische Arbeit zeigt, dass eine Prozesssteuerung im Sinne von Urban Governance im Vergleich zu einer klassis-chen hierarchischen Steuerung eine notwendige aber nicht hinreichende Bedingung zur Verbesserung der Projektqualität nachhaltiger Quartiere darstellt. An konkreten Beispielen wird herausgearbeitet, dass der Mehrwert einer solchen Steuerung nur unter bestimmten Voraussetzungen erzielt werden kann: In manchen Situationen ist die Steuerungsform Kooperation und die Interaktionsform Verhandlung in ihrer Wirksamkeit zur Sicherung der Projektqualität begrenzt und hierarchische Interventionen sind notwendig. Nicht ein bestimmtes Steuerungsmodell per se ist geeignet, sondern es kommt auf den Ein-zelfall an: auf die Akteursstruktur, die individuellen und institutionellen Handlungsorientierungen der Akteure und deren Ver-haltensweisen, die Rahmenbedingungen und die Ausgestaltung des Urban Governance-Prozesses. Wenn die Spielregeln dieses Prozesses von den Akteuren nicht wirklich angenommen und gelebt werden, dominieren individuelle und institutio-nelle Akteursinteressen zu Lasten der Projektqualität. Ferner zeigen die Untersuchungen, dass die Partizipation der zukünftigen Quartiersnutzer in der Praxis häufig unzureichend ist. Dies führt zu Einbußen in der Projektqualität. Entscheidend ist auf jeden Fall, dass mindestens ein Akteur, in der Regel die öffentliche Hand, präsent ist, der die Definition anspruchsvoller Nachhaltigkeitsstandards, deren Umsetzung und deren Erhalt sichert sowie die notwendigen Rahmenbedingungen dafür schafft. Diese Arbeit belegt darüber hinaus, dass der Erhalt der Projektqualität während der Nutzungsphase (Faktor Zeit) bisher un-zureichend beachtet und in die Projektplanung einbezogen wird. Gerade dieser Aspekt bestimmt aber, ob das Quartier auch auf Dauer dem Nachhaltigkeitsanspruch gerecht werden kann! Tatsächlich handelt es sich um einen fortlaufenden Prozess, der nicht mit der Einweihung des Quartiers abgeschlossen ist. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden relevante Handlungsfelder beschrieben und die Notwendigkeit der langfristigen Fortsetzung einer Steuerung im Sinne von Urban Governance bzw. der Herausbildung einer Urban Governance-Kultur aufgezeigt. Aus den empirischen Erhebungen werden Erfolgs- und Risikofaktoren für Urban Governance-Prozesse während der Realisierungs- und der Nutzungsphase abgeleitet. Ferner werden bisher vernachlässigte Handlungsfelder (langfristiges Umwelt-management, ökologische Finanzierungsformen, urbane Landwirtschaft, Umweltkommunikation, etc.) eruiert. Die Berücksichtigung dieser Erkenntnisse ist unerlässlich für eine Verbesserung der Projektqualität nachhaltiger Quartiere. ---------------------------------------------- Gouvernance urbaine et quartiers durables: Entre intensions et mise en oeuvre --- Résumé --- Depuis les années 90, la thématique des quartiers durables a gagné en importance, même si leur développement s'est avéré difficile. Le décalage entre les objectifs, leur mise en oeuvre et le projet tel qu'il est vécu par ses habitants est souvent important et nécessite d'être réduit. Un quartier durable est par nature un projet complexe, aux objectifs ambitieux situé à la croisée de multiples champs disciplinaires, mobilisant de nombreux acteurs aux intérêts divergents. De plus, chaque projet, du fait des ses spécificités, requiert un pilotage adapté. L'objectif principal de la recherche vise à analyser la nature du pilotage du processus de conception, de réalisation et d'exploitation des quartiers durables. Ses résultats ont pour ambition de contribuer à optimiser et promouvoir le développement urbain durable. Le fondement théorique de la recherche se base sur le concept de gouvernance urbaine, adapté au contexte particulier de la gouvernance des quartiers durables. La gouvernance urbaine, au sens où nous l'entendons, est un mode de pilotage basé sur la coopération entre les acteurs publics et privés. Les hypothèses centrales du travail testent la portée et les limites des caractéristiques-clefs de la gouvernance urbaine (coopération, participation, négociation), ainsi que l'importance de la notion de pérennité pour la qualité du projet. Dans un premier temps, nous avons analysé vingt quartiers durables modèles européens et identifié leurs atouts et leurs faiblesses en termes de durabilité, ainsi que leurs divers modes de pilotage. Les enseignements tirés de ces exemples révèlent la nécessité d'améliorer le pilotage des projets. Dans un deuxième temps, nous avons élaboré une grille d'analyse fine fondée sur l'approche institutionnelle des acteurs et les caractéristiques-clefs de la gouvernance urbaine. En nous appuyant sur cette grille, nous avons analysé le processus de conception et de réalisation du quartier durable de « Kronsberg » (Hanovre) à l'aide des éléments suivants : les acteurs (avec leurs intérêts et objectifs propres), les instruments d'aménagement du territoire, les modes de pilotage, les zones de divergence et de convergence entre les acteurs, ainsi que leurs impacts sur le processus et le projet. Dans un troisième temps, les hypothèses centrales ont été testées sur le quartier de « Neu-Oerlikon » (Zurich) afin d'approfondir et d'élargir les enseignements tirés de celui de « Kronsberg ». Les résultats des analyses mettent en évidence le fait qu'un pilotage de projet selon le modèle de la gouvernance urbaine est certes une condition nécessaire mais non suffisante pour améliorer la qualité du projet. De plus, la valeur ajoutée de la gouvernance urbaine n'est valable qu'à certaines conditions. En effet, la coopération et la négociation peuvent même, dans certaines situations, réduire la qualité du projet ! Le principal enseignement de la recherche révèle qu'il n'y a pas de mode de pilotage idéal, mais que la qualité d'un projet dépend d'une multitude de facteurs, tels que les constellations d'acteurs, leurs intérêts personnels et institutionnels, les conditions cadres et les « règles du jeu » de la gouvernance urbaine. Si les « règles du jeu » en particulier ne sont pas réellement appropriées par l'ensemble des acteurs, les intérêts et les comportements personnels ou institutionnels prédominent au détriment de la qualité du projet. De même, si la participation des futurs usagers à l'élaboration du projet de quartier durable n'est pas assurée, tant la qualité du projet que sa pérennité en pâtissent. Nous avons également constaté que la présence d'un acteur (en règle générale les autorités publiques) qui veille à la définition d'objectifs ambitieux en matière de développement durable et à leur application constitue un apport essentiel à la qualité du projet. En outre, la recherche met en évidence les carences dans le suivi et le maintien à long terme des qualités de durabilité de la phase d'exploitation des projets de quartiers durables analysés. Dans la phase d'exploitation, le degré de coopération diminue généralement et les modes de fonctionnement et de pilotage sectoriels se mettent en place au détriment de la qualité du projet. Cela confirme la nécessité de poursuivre le processus de pilotage selon le modèle de la gouvernance urbaine au-delà de la phase de réalisation des projets. La recherche précise les enjeux des champs d'action de la phase d'exploitation (domaine encore peu étudié) et démontre la pertinence du mode de pilotage préconisé. Enfin, les analyses permettent d'identifier des facteurs de réussite et de risque susceptibles d'influencer les systèmes de gouvernance urbaine, ainsi que les enjeux des domaines de la durabilité encore négligés (agriculture urbaine, gestion environnementale dans la durée, comportement des usagers, financement équitable, etc.). La prise en compte de ces enseignements est essentielle à l'amélioration de la gestion de futurs projets de quartiers durables. ---------------------------------------------- Urban Governance and Sustainable Neighbourhoods: A Contribution to a Lasting Sustainable Development --- Abstract --- Since the 1990s, sustainable neighbourhoods have become an increasingly important topic. However, their development has proven to be difficult. There is an often considerable gap, which must be reduced, between the initial goals, the way they are implemented and how the project is finally inhabited. A sustainable neighbourhood is inherently a complex project, with ambitious goals that lie at the intersection of multiple disciplines, involving numerous stakeholders with diverging interests. Moreover, each project, due to its specific characteristics, requires an adapted steering. The main goal of this research is to analyse the nature of the steering process during the planning, realisation and use of sustainable neighbourhoods. The results aim to contribute to the promotion of sustainable urban development. The theoretical foundation of this research is based on the concept of urban governance, adapted to the particular context of sustainable neighbourhoods. Urban governance is understood in this work, as a mode of project steering based on the cooperation between public and private stakeholders. The central hypotheses of this work test the importance and the limits of the key characteristics of urban governance (cooperation, participation, negotiation) as well as the importance of continuity for the project quality. To begin with, we surveyed and analysed twenty exemplary European sustainable neighbourhoods and identified their strengths and weaknesses in terms of sustainability, as well as their diverse steering modes. The lessons learned from these examples reveal the need to improve the projects' steering. Secondly we elaborated a detailed framework for analysis founded on stakeholder-centred institutionalism and the key characteristics of urban governance. By systematically applying this framework, we analysed the planning and implementation process of the sustainable neighbourhood "Kronsberg" (Hannover). Our focus was on the following dimensions: the stakeholders (with their particular interests and goals), the instruments of spatial planning, the steering modes, the points of divergence and convergence amongst the stakeholders, as well as their impacts on the process and on the project. The final step was to test the core hypotheses on the neighbourhood "Neu-Oerlikon" (Zürich) in order to broaden the lessons learned from "Kronsberg". The results of the analysis highlight the fact that an urban governance type project steering is certainly a necessary but insufficient condition to improve the project quality. Moreover, the added value of urban governance is only valid under certain conditions. In fact, cooperation and negotiation can even in certain situations reduce the project's quality! The main lesson of this research is that there is not an ideal steering mode, but rather that the quality of the project depends on numerous factors, such as the stakeholder constellation, their individual and institutional interests, the general conditions and the "rules of the game" of urban governance. If these "rules of the game" are not really appropriated by all stakeholders, individual and institutional interests and behaviours predominate at the expense of the project's quality. Likewise, if the future users' participation in the project development is insufficient, both the project's quality and its continuity suffer. We have also observed that the presence of a stakeholder (in general the public authorities) who ensures the definition of ambitious goals in terms of sustainable development and their implementation is crucial for the project's quality. Furthermore, this research highlights the deficiencies in the follow-up and long-term preservation of the sustainability qualities in the neighbourhood projects which we have analysed. In the use phase, the degree of cooperation generally diminishes. Attitudes and project management become more sectorial at the expense of the project's quality. This confirms the need to continue the steering process according to the principles of urban governance beyond the project's implementation phase. This research specifies the challenges that affect the use phase (a still neglected area) and shows the relevance of the recommended steering mode. Finally, the analyses also identify the success and risk factors that may influence urban-governance systems, as well as the challenges of still neglected fields of sustainability (urban agriculture, long-term environmental management, user behaviour, fair funding, etc.). Taking into account these outcomes is essential to improve the management of future sustainable-neighbourhood projects.

A Literature Review of Urban Bypass Studies, 1992

Urban places attract most highway travel because more people are to be per acre in urban places than elsewhere. In the beginning of highway development the objective was to provide an all-weather road for the rural people to get to town and back to their farms, but there was no consideration of getting motor vehicles through the town to the opposite side. With the development of intercity travel, it soon became apparent that travel through the urban areas would have to be given consideration along with the travel to and from the urban areas. This consideration led to the urban bypass, a provision in highway location whereby the traveler may get to the opposite side of the urban area without going through it, or at least not through the central business district. Bypasses, although highly desired by the through travelers, were not welcomed by local business interests on the basis that the community would suffer a reduction in retail trade. Some discussion of the pros and cons of bypasses and their consequences as observed from experience will shed light upon this type of local highway. The bypass report summaries in this document were based on interviews with businessmen and community leaders of cities that have actually experienced firsthand the impacts of a highway bypass. Several of the studies were conducted by newspaper reporters, city council members and residents of Iowa cities.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

An Assessment of Traffic Safety in Urban Deer Herd Management Zones in Iowa, 2010

Many states are striving to keep their deer population to a sustainable and controllable level while maximizing public safety. In Iowa, measures to control the deer population include annual deer hunts and special deer herd management plans in urban areas. While these plans may reduce the deer population, traffic safety in these areas has not been fully assessed. Using deer population data from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources and data on deer-vehicle crashes and deer carcass removals from the Iowa Department of Transportation, the authors examined the relationship between deer-vehicle collisions, deer density, and land use in three urban areas in Iowa that have deer management plans in place (Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, and Iowa City) over the period 2002 to 2007. First, a comparison of deer-vehicle crash counts and deer carcass removal counts was conducted at the county level. Further, the authors estimated econometric models to investigate the factors that influence the frequency and severity of deer-vehicle crashes in these zones. Overall, the number of deer carcasses removed on the primary roads in these counties was greater than the number of reported deervehicle crashes on those roads. These differences can be attributed to a number of reasons, including variability in data reporting and data collection practices. In addition, high rates of underreporting of crashes were found on major routes that carry high volumes of traffic. This study also showed that multiple factors affect deer-vehicle crashes and corresponding injury outcomes in urban management zones. The identified roadway and non-roadway factors could be useful for identifying locations on the transportation system that significantly impact deer species and safety and for determining appropriate countermeasures for mitigation. Efforts to reduce deer density adjacent to roads and developed land and to provide wider shoulders on undivided roads are recommended. Improving the consistency and accuracy of deer carcass and deer-vehicle collision data collection methods and practices is also desirable.

Reconstruction Of Past Climate Conditions Over Central Europe From Groundwater Data

Here we present a 30 000 years low-resolution climate record reconstructed from groundwater data. The investigated site is located in the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin, in the corridor between the Scandinavian ice sheet and the Alpine ice field. Noble gas temperatures (NGT), obtained from groundwater data, preserved multicentennial temperature variability and indicated a cooling of at least 5-7 °C during the last glacial maximum (LGM). This is further confirmed by the depleted δ18O and δ2H values at the LGM. High excess air (ΔNe) at the end of the Pleistocene is possibly related to abrupt changes in recharge dynamics due to progression and retreat of ice covers and permafrost. These results agree with the fact that during the LGM permafrost and small glaciers developed in the inner valleys of the Giant Mountains (located in the watershed of the aquifers). A temporal decrease of deuterium excess from the pre-industrial Holocene to present days is linked to an increase of the air temperatures, and probably also to an increase of water pressure at the source region of precipitation over the past few hundred years

Emergence of Swiss metropole and scaling properties of urban clusters

Defining the limits of an urban agglomeration is essential both for fundamental and applied studies in quantitative and theoretical geography. A simple and consistent way for defining such urban clusters is important for performing different statistical analysis and comparisons. Traditionally, agglomerations are defined using a rather qualitative approach based on various statistical measures. This definition varies generally from one country to another, and the data taken into account are different. In this paper, we explore the use of the City Clustering Algorithm (CCA) for the agglomeration definition in Switzerland. This algorithm provides a systemic and easy way to define an urban area based only on population data. The CCA allows the specification of the spatial resolution for defining the urban clusters. The results from different resolutions are compared and analysed, and the effect of filtering the data investigated. Different scales and parameters allow highlighting different phenomena. The study of Zipf's law using the visual rank-size rule shows that it is valid only for some specific urban clusters, inside a narrow range of the spatial resolution of the CCA. The scale where emergence of one main cluster occurs can also be found in the analysis using Zipf's law. The study of the urban clusters at different scales using the lacunarity measure - a complementary measure to the fractal dimension - allows to highlight the change of scale at a given range.

Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot, HEPN-707, 2015

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is responsible for approximately 4,100 bridges and structures that are a part of the state’s primary highway system, which includes the Interstate, US, and Iowa highway routes. A pilot study was conducted for six bridges in two Iowa river basins—the Cedar River Basin and the South Skunk River Basin—to develop a methodology to evaluate their vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather. The six bridges had been either closed or severely stressed by record streamflow within the past seven years. An innovative methodology was developed to generate streamflow scenarios given climate change projections. The methodology selected appropriate rainfall projection data to feed into a streamflow model that generated continuous peak annual streamflow series for 1960 through 2100, which were used as input to PeakFQ to estimate return intervals for floods. The methodology evaluated the plausibility of rainfall projections and credibility of streamflow simulation while remaining consistent with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) protocol for estimating the return interval for floods. The results were conveyed in an innovative graph that combined historical and scenario-based design metrics for use in bridge vulnerability analysis and engineering design. The pilot results determined the annual peak streamflow response to climate change likely will be basin-size dependent, four of the six pilot study bridges would be exposed to increased frequency of extreme streamflow and would have higher frequency of overtopping, the proposed design for replacing the Interstate 35 bridges over the South Skunk River south of Ames, Iowa is resilient to climate change, and some Iowa DOT bridge design policies could be reviewed to consider incorporating climate change information.

Viticulture under climate change : understanding vulnerability and adaptive capacity of wineries and growers. A case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia

Climate change may pose challenges and opportunities to viticulture, and much research has focused in studying the likely impacts on grapes and wine production in different regions worldwide. This study assesses the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the viticulture sector under changing climate conditions, based on a case study in El Penedès region, Catalonia. Farm assets, livelihood strategies, farmer-market interactions and climate changes perceptions are analysed through semi-structured interviews with different types of wineries and growers. Both types of actors are equally exposed to biophysical stressors but unevenly affected by socioeconomic changes. While wineries are vulnerable because of the current economic crisis and the lack of diversification of their work, which may affect their income or production, growers are mainly affected by the low prices of their products and the lack of fix contracts. These socioeconomic stressors strongly condition their capacity to adapt to climate change, meaning that growers prioritize their immediate income problems, rather than future socioeconomic or climate threats. Therefore, growers undertake reactive adaptation to climate changing conditions, mainly based on ancient knowledge, whilst wineries combine both reactive and anticipatory adaptation practices. These circumstances should be addressed in order to allow better anticipatory adaptation to be implemented, thus avoiding future climate threats.

Assessing farmers' vulnerability to climate change : a case study in Karnataka, India

In the context of observed climate change impacts and their effect on agriculture and crop production, this study intends to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods through a study case in Karnataka, India. The social approach of climate change vulnerability in this study case includes defining and exploring factors that determine farmers’ vulnerability in four villages. Key informant interviews, farmer workshops and structured household interviews were used for data collection. To analyse the data, we adapted and applied three vulnerability indices: Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI-IPCC and the Livelihood Effect Index (LEI), and used descriptive statistical methods. The data was analysed at two scales: whole sample-level and household level. The results from applying the indices for the whole-sample level show that this community's vulnerability to climate change is moderate, whereas the household-level results show that most of the households' vulnerability is high-very high, while 15 key drivers of vulnerability were identified. Results and limitations of the study are discussed under the rural livelihoods framework, in which the indices are based, allowing a better understanding of the social behaviouraltrends, as well as an holistic and integrated view of the climate change, agriculture, and livelihoods processes shaping vulnerability. We conclude that these indices, although a straightforward method to assess vulnerability, have limitations that could account for inaccuracies and inability to be standardised for benchmarking, therefore we stress the need for further research.

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.