983 resultados para Term Earthquake Prediction


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BACKGROUND: Laser photocoagulation and cryotherapy to completely destroy telangiectatic vessels and ischemic retina in Coats disease is barely applicable in advanced cases with total retinal detachment, and globe survival is notoriously poor in Stages 3B and 4. Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor intravitreal injections may offer new prospects for these patients. METHODS: This study is a retrospective review of all consecutive patients with Coats disease treated with neoadjuvant or adjuvant intravitreal ranibizumab plus conventional and amblyopia treatment as appropriate. RESULTS: Nine patients (median age, 13 months) presenting Coats Stages 3B and 4 (5 and 4 eyes, respectively) were included. Iris neovascularization resolved within 2 weeks and retinal reapplication within 4 months in all patients. At last follow-up, globe survival was 100% with anatomical success in 8 of the 9 eyes. With a median follow-up of 50 months, fibrotic vitreoretinopathy was developed in 5 of the 9 cases, one leading to tractional retinal detachment and ultimately phthisis bulbi. The remaining 4 of the 9 eyes achieved some vision (range, 0.02-0.063). CONCLUSION: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the largest reported series of late-stage Coats undergoing anti-vascular endothelial growth factor therapy, a homogenous cohort of patients treated with a single agent and with the longest follow-up. This study supports the role of ranibizumab in advanced disease by transient restoration of the hemato-retinal barrier and suppression of neovascularization to facilitate classic treatment. At the last follow-up, the authors report unprecedented anatomical success and functional outcome.

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Background: To compare treatment outcomes of a cognitive-behavioral long-term (CBT-L) and short-term (CBT-S) treatment for binge eating disorder (BED) in a non-randomized comparison and to identify moderators of treatment outcome. Methods: 76 female patients with BED participated in the study: 40 in CBT-L and 36 in CBT-S. Outcome values were compared at the end of the active treatment phase (16 sessions for CBT-L, 8 sessions for CBT-S) and at 12-month follow-up. Results: Both treatments produced significant reductions in binge eating. At the end of active treatment, but not at the end of follow-up, effects of primary outcomes (e.g. remission from binge eating, EDE shape concern) were better for CBT-L than for CBT-S. Dropout rates were significantly higher in CBT-L (35%) than in CBT-S (14%). Moderator analyses revealed that treatment efficacy for rapid responders and individuals exhibiting high scores on the mixed dietary negative affect subtype differed between the CBT-L and CBT-S with respect to objective binges, restraint eating and eating concern. Conclusion: Findings suggest that CBT in general represents an effective treatment for BED, but that subgroups of patients might profit more from a prolonged treatment. Short, lessintensive CBT treatments could nevertheless be a viable option in the treatment of BED.

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1.1 AbstractThe treatment of memory disorders and cognitive deficits in various forms of mental retardation may greatly benefit from a better understanding of the molecular and cellular mechanisms of memory formation. Different forms of memory have distinct molecular requirements.Short-term memory (STM) is thought to be mediated by covalent modifications of existing synaptic molecules, such as phosphorylation or dephosphorylation of enzymes, receptors or ion channels. In contrast, long-term memoiy (LTM) is thought to be mediated by growth of new synapses and restructuring of existing synapses. There is extensive evidence that changes in gene expression and de novo protein synthesis are key processes for LTM formation. In this context, the transcription factor CREB (cAMP-response element-binding protein) was shown to be crucial. Activation of CREB requires phosphorylation of a serine residue (Ser-133), and the subsequent recruitment of a coactivator called CREB-binding protein (CBP). Moreover, we have recently shown that another coactivator called CREB Regulated Transcription Coactivator 1 (CRTC1) functions as a calcium- and cAMP-sensitive coincidence detector in neurons, and is involved in hippocampal long-term synaptic plasticity. Given the importance of cAMP and calcium signaling for plasticity-related gene expression in neurons and in astrocytes, we sought to determine the respective involvement of the CREB coactivators CBP and CRTC1 in CREB-mediated transcription.We developed various strategies to selectively interfere with these CREB coactivators in mouse primary neurons and in astrocytes in vitro. However, despite several pieces of evidence implicating CBP and/or CRTC1 in the regulation of neuronal plasticity genes, we could not clearly determine the respective requirement of these coactivators for the activation of these genes. Nevertheless, we showed that calcineurin activity, which is important for CRTC1 nuclear translocation, is necessary for the expression of some CREB-regulated plasticity genes. We associated this phenomena to physiopathological conditions observed in Down's syndrome. In addition, we demonstrated that in astrocytes, noradrenaline stimulates CREB-target gene expression through β-adrenergic receptor activation, intracellular cAMP pathway activation, and CRTC-induced CREB transactivation.Defining the respective role of CREB and its coactivators CBP and CRTC1 in neuronal and astrocytic cultures in vitro sets the stage for future in vivo studies and for the possible development of new therapeutic strategies to improve the treatment of memoiy and cognitive disorders.1.2 RésuméUne meilleure connaissance des mécanismes moléculaires et cellulaires responsables de la formation de la mémoire pourrait grandement améliorer le traitement des troubles de la mémoire ainsi que des déficits cognitifs observés dans différentes formes de pathologies psychiatriques telles que le retard mental. Les différentes formes de mémoire dépendent de processus moléculaires différents.La mémoire à court terme (STM) semble prendre forme suite à des modifications covalentes de molécules synaptiques préexistantes, telles que la phosphorylation ou la déphosphorylation d'enzymes, de récepteurs ou de canaux ioniques. En revanche, la mémoire à long terme (LTM) semble être due à la génération de nouvelles synapses et à la restructuration des synapses existantes. De nombreuses études ont permis de démontrer que les changements dans l'expression des gènes et la synthèse de protéine de novo sont des processus clés pour la formation de la LTM. Dans ce contexte, le facteur de transcription CREB (cAMP-response element-binding protein) s'est avéré être un élément crucial. L'activation de CREB nécessite la phosphorylation d'un résidu sérine (Ser-133), et le recrutement d'un coactivateur nommé CBP (CREB binding protein). En outre, nous avons récemment démontré qu'un autre coactivateur de CREB nommé CRTC1 (CREB Regulated Transcription Coactivator 1) agit comme un détecteur de coïncidence de l'AMP cyclique (AMPc) et du calcium dans les neurones et qu'il est impliqué dans la formation de la plasticité synaptique à long terme dans l'hippocampe. Etant donné l'importance des voies de l'AMPc et du calcium dans l'expression des gènes impliqués dans la plasticité cérébrale, nous voulions déterminer le rôle respectif des coactivateurs de CREB, CBP et CRTC1.Nous avons développé diverses stratégies pour interférer de façon sélective avec les coactivateurs de CREB dans les neurones et dans les astrocytes chez la souris in vitro. Nos résultats indiquent que CBP et CRTC1 sont tous deux impliqués dans la transcription dépendante de CREB induite par l'AMPc et le calcium dans les neurones. Cependant, malgré plusieurs évidences impliquant CBP et/ou CRTC1 dans l'expression de gènes de plasticité neuronale, nous n'avons pas pu déterminer clairement leur nécessité respective pour l'activation de ces gènes. Toutefois, nous avons montré que l'activité de la calcineurine, dont dépend la translocation nucléaire de CRTC1, est nécessaire à l'expression de certains de ces gènes. Nous avons pu associer ce phénomène à une condition physiopathologique observée dans le syndrome de Down. Nous avons également montré que dans les astrocytes, la noradrénaline stimule l'expression de gènes cibles de CREB par une activation des récepteurs β- adrénergiques, l'activation de la voie de l'AMPc et la transactivation de CREB par les CRTCs.Définir le rôle respectif de CREB et de ses coactivateurs CBP et CRTC1 dans les neurones et dans les astrocytes in vitro permettra d'acquérir les connaissances nécessaires à de futures études in vivo et, à plus long terme d'éventuellement développer des stratégies thérapeutiques pour améliorer les traitements des troubles cognitifs.

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To test the hypothesis that the trophic action of angiotensin II on the adrenal zona glomerulosa may allow a sustained stimulation of aldosterone by ACTH by preventing the morphological changes of the zona glomerulosa cells into zona fasciculata-like elements we investigated the effects in rats of a 6-day treatment with ACTH (100 micrograms/kg/day) alone or combined with angiotensin II (300 ng/kg/day) on corticosterone and aldosterone production and adrenal morphology. The responsiveness of both steroids to an acute ACTH dose was also studied on the last day of long-term treatment. Morphologic data showed that prolonged ACTH treatment stimulated the growth of zona glomerulosa cells, though it transformed the tubulo-lamellar cristae of mitochondria into a homogeneous population of vesicles. Angiotensin II furthered the trophic effects of ACTH but prevented the mitochondrial transformation. Despite its ability to conserve the well differentiated aspect of the zona glomerulosa cells, the administration of angiotensin II was unable to prevent the fall in the secretion of aldosterone caused by chronic ACTH treatment and its subsequent unresponsiveness to ACTH stimulation.

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Rock slope instabilities are implicitly linked to the supply of sediment and debris recharging channels prone to debris flow. Hence, the incorporation of bedrock structure and terrain morphology can be relevant in the analysis of sediment budget and debris flow hazard assessment. Here, the mode of debris production of the Manival catchment (northern French Alps) is documented by the study of its morphostructural aspects extracted from high resolution DEM. Terrain implication in the process of debris supply is evaluated by: a) A systematic classification of the major morphological units based on the slope gradient that enables a spatial analysis of zones of debris production and deposition. b) A detailed structural analysis performed on DEM in order to identify potential unstable slopes. c) An analysis of the gullies orientation that informs in term of structural control of the sources zones. d) Localisation of high density joints sets that document about whether sources of continuous debris production are controlled by the structural setting of the catchment. These DEM-based indicators can be used as proxies for assessing the influences of the current topography and enable to quantify a degree of susceptibility to mass wasting and hillslope erosion activity. This present contribution suggests some directions for characterizing sediment flux dynamic in small alpine catchment.

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Secondary accident statistics can be useful for studying the impact of traffic incident management strategies. An easy-to-implement methodology is presented for classifying secondary accidents using data fusion of a police accident database with intranet incident reports. A current method for classifying secondary accidents uses a static threshold that represents the spatial and temporal region of influence of the primary accident, such as two miles and one hour. An accident is considered secondary if it occurs upstream from the primary accident and is within the duration and queue of the primary accident. However, using the static threshold may result in both false positives and negatives because accident queues are constantly varying. The methodology presented in this report seeks to improve upon this existing method by making the threshold dynamic. An incident progression curve is used to mark the end of the queue throughout the entire incident. Four steps in the development of incident progression curves are described. Step one is the processing of intranet incident reports. Step two is the filling in of incomplete incident reports. Step three is the nonlinear regression of incident progression curves. Step four is the merging of individual incident progression curves into one master curve. To illustrate this methodology, 5,514 accidents from Missouri freeways were analyzed. The results show that secondary accidents identified by dynamic versus static thresholds can differ by more than 30%.

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BACKGROUND: Survival after pancreatic head adenocarcinoma surgery is determined by tumor characteristics, resection margins, and adjuvant chemotherapy. Few studies have analyzed the long-term impact of postoperative morbidity. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of postoperative complications on long-term survival after pancreaticoduodenectomy for cancer. METHODS: Of 294 consecutive pancreatectomies performed between January 2000 and July 2011, a total of 101 pancreatic head resections for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma were retrospectively analyzed. Postoperative complications were classified on a five-grade validated scale and were correlated with long-term survival. Grade IIIb to IVb complications were defined as severe. RESULTS: Postoperative mortality and morbidity were 5 and 57 %, respectively. Severe postoperative complications occurred in 16 patients (16 %). Median overall survival was 1.4 years. Significant prognostic factors of survival were the N-stage of the tumor (median survival 3.4 years for N0 vs. 1.3 years for N1, p = 0.018) and R status of the resection (median survival 1.6 years for R0 vs. 1.2 years for R1, p = 0.038). Median survival after severe postoperative complications was decreased from 1.9 to 1.2 years (p = 0.06). Median survival for N0 or N1 tumor or after R0 resection was not influenced by the occurrence and severity of complications, but patients with a R1 resection and severe complications showed a worsened median survival of 0.6 vs. 2.0 years without severe complications (p = 0.0005). CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative severe morbidity per se had no impact on long-term survival except in patients with R1 tumor resection. These results suggest that severe complications after R1 resection predict poor outcome.

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We survey the population genetic basis of social evolution, using a logically consistent set of arguments to cover a wide range of biological scenarios. We start by reconsidering Hamilton's (Hamilton 1964 J. Theoret. Biol. 7, 1-16 (doi:10.1016/0022-5193(64)90038-4)) results for selection on a social trait under the assumptions of additive gene action, weak selection and constant environment and demography. This yields a prediction for the direction of allele frequency change in terms of phenotypic costs and benefits and genealogical concepts of relatedness, which holds for any frequency of the trait in the population, and provides the foundation for further developments and extensions. We then allow for any type of gene interaction within and between individuals, strong selection and fluctuating environments and demography, which may depend on the evolving trait itself. We reach three conclusions pertaining to selection on social behaviours under broad conditions. (i) Selection can be understood by focusing on a one-generation change in mean allele frequency, a computation which underpins the utility of reproductive value weights; (ii) in large populations under the assumptions of additive gene action and weak selection, this change is of constant sign for any allele frequency and is predicted by a phenotypic selection gradient; (iii) under the assumptions of trait substitution sequences, such phenotypic selection gradients suffice to characterize long-term multi-dimensional stochastic evolution, with almost no knowledge about the genetic details underlying the coevolving traits. Having such simple results about the effect of selection regardless of population structure and type of social interactions can help to delineate the common features of distinct biological processes. Finally, we clarify some persistent divergences within social evolution theory, with respect to exactness, synergies, maximization, dynamic sufficiency and the role of genetic arguments.

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OBJECTIVE: To compare the adverse neonatal and maternal outcomes after medically indicated and elective labor induction. Both induction groups were also compared to women with spontaneous onset of labor. METHOD: Retrospective cohort study of 13 971 women with live, cephalic singleton pregnancies who delivered at term (from 1997 to 2007). Adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes were compared between women who underwent an induction of labor in the presence and absence of standard medical indications. RESULTS: Among 5090 patients with induced labor, 2059 (40.5%) underwent elective labor inductions, defined as inductions without any medical or obstetrical indication. Risks of cesarean or instrumental delivery, postpartum hemorrhage >500 ml, prolonged maternal hospitalization >6 days, Apgar<7 at 5 min of life, arterial umbilical cord pH<7.1, admission in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) and prolonged NICU hospitalization >7 days were similar between nulliparous who underwent elective and medical labor induction. Similar results were obtained for multiparous. All the above mentioned risks, but the Apgar<7 at 5 min of life, were significantly increased after induction in comparison to spontaneous labor. CONCLUSION: Elective induction of labor carries similar obstetrical and neonatal risks as a medically indicated labor induction. Thus, elective induction of labor should be strongly discouraged.

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In this paper we describe the existence of financial illusion in public accountingand we comment on its effects for the future sustainability of local publicservices. We relate these features to the lack of incentives amongst publicmanagers for improving the financial reporting and thus management of publicassets. Financial illusion pays off for politicians and managers since it allowsfor larger public expenditure increases and managerial slack, these beingarguments in their utility functions. This preference is strengthen by the shorttime perspective of politically appointed public managers. Both factors runagainst public accountability. This hypothesis is tested for Spain by using anunique sample. We take data from around forty Catalan local authorities withpopulation above 20,000 for the financial years 1993-98. We build this databasis from the Catalan Auditing Office Reports in a way that it can be linkedto some other local social and economic variables in order to test ourassumptions. The results confirm that there is a statistical relationship between the financialillusion index (FI as constructed in the paper) and higher current expenditure.This reflects on important overruns and increases of the delay in payingsuppliers, as well as on a higher difficulties to face capital finance. Mechanismsfor FI creation have to do among other factors, with delays in paying suppliers(and thereafter higher future financial costs per unit of service), no adequateprovision for bad debts and lack of appropriate capital funding either forreposition or for new equipments. For this, it is crucial to monitor the way inwhich capital transfers are accounted in local public sheet balances. As a result,for most of the Municipalities we analyse, the funds for guaranteeing continuityand sustainability of public services provision are today at risk.Given managerial incentives at present in public institutions, we conclude thatpublic regulation recently enforced for assuring better information systems inlocal public management may not be enough to change the current state of affairs.

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We present simple procedures for the prediction of a real valued sequence. The algorithms are based on a combinationof several simple predictors. We show that if the sequence is a realization of a bounded stationary and ergodic random process then the average of squared errors converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor. We offer an analog result for the prediction of stationary gaussian processes.

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Sequential randomized prediction of an arbitrary binary sequence isinvestigated. No assumption is made on the mechanism of generating the bit sequence. The goal of the predictor is to minimize its relative loss, i.e., to make (almost) as few mistakes as the best ``expert'' in a fixed, possibly infinite, set of experts. We point out a surprising connection between this prediction problem and empirical process theory. First, in the special case of static (memoryless) experts, we completely characterize the minimax relative loss in terms of the maximum of an associated Rademacher process. Then we show general upper and lower bounds on the minimaxrelative loss in terms of the geometry of the class of experts. As main examples, we determine the exact order of magnitude of the minimax relative loss for the class of autoregressive linear predictors and for the class of Markov experts.

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This paper provides empirical evidence of the persistent effect of exposure to political violence on humancapital accumulation. I exploit the variation in conflict location and birth cohorts to identify the longandshort-term effects of the civil war on educational attainment. Conditional on being exposed toviolence, the average person accumulates 0.31 less years of education as an adult. In the short-term,the effects are stronger than in the long-run; these results hold when comparing children within thesame household. Further, exposure to violence during early childhood leads to permanent losses. I alsoexplore the potential causal mechanisms.

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Objectives The relevance of the SYNTAX score for the particular case of patients with acute ST- segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI)  has previously only been studied in the setting of post hoc analysis of large prospective randomized clinical trials. A "real-life" population approach has never been explored before. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the SYNTAX score for the prediction of the myocardial infarction size, estimated by the creatin-kinase (CK) peak value, using the SYNTAX score in patients treated with primary coronary intervention for acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Methods The primary endpoint of the study was myocardial infarction size as measured by the CK peak value. The SYNTAX score was calculated retrospectively in 253 consecutive patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) in a large tertiary referral center in Switzerland, between January 2009 and June 2010. Linear regression analysis was performed to compare myocardial infarction size with the SYNTAX score. This same endpoint was then stratified according to SYNTAX score tertiles: low <22 (n=178), intermediate [22-32] (n=60), and high >=33 (n=15). Results There were no significant differences in terms of clinical characteristics between the three groups. When stratified according to the SYNTAX score tertiles, average CK peak values of 1985 (low<22), 3336 (intermediate [22-32]) and 3684 (high>=33) were obtained with a p-value <0.0001. Bartlett's test for equal variances between the three groups was 9.999 (p-value <0.0067). A moderate Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r=0.4074) with a high statistical significance level (p-value <0.0001) was found. The coefficient of determination (R^2=0.1660) showed that approximately 17% of the variation of CK peak value (myocardial infarction size) could be explained by the SYNTAX score, i.e. by the coronary disease complexity. Conclusion In an all-comers population, the SYNTAX score is an additional tool in predicting myocardial infarction size in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). The stratification of patients in different risk groups according to SYNTAX enables to identify a high-risk population that may warrant particular patient care.