Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy. We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

A framework for model integration and holistic modelling of socio-technical systems

This paper presents a layered framework for the purposes of integrating different Socio-Technical Systems (STS) models and perspectives into a whole-of-systems model. Holistic modelling plays a critical role in the engineering of STS due to the interplay between social and technical elements within these systems and resulting emergent behaviour. The framework decomposes STS models into components, where each component is either a static object, dynamic object or behavioural object. Based on existing literature, a classification of the different elements that make up STS, whether it be a social, technical or a natural environment element, is developed; each object can in turn be classified according to the STS elements it represents. Using the proposed framework, it is possible to systematically decompose models to an extent such that points of interface can be identified and the contextual factors required in transforming the component of one model to interface into another is obtained. Using an airport inbound passenger facilitation process as a case study socio-technical system, three different models are analysed: a Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) model, Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) model and an Agent Based Model (ABM). It is found that the framework enables the modeller to identify non-trivial interface points such as between the spatial interactions of an ABM and the causal reasoning of a HQBN, and between the process activity representation of a BPMN and simulated behavioural performance in a HQBN. Such a framework is a necessary enabler in order to integrate different modelling approaches in understanding and managing STS.

Wide area control of SVCs for first swing stabilisation and damping in longitudinal systems

A non-linear Kalman filter based control strategy for SVCs located in major load groups is presented. This focusses on the limitation and damping of inter-area modes. It does this through treating local modes as noise and uses a tunable nonlinear control algorithm to improve both first swing stability and system damping. Simulation on a four machine system shows that the Kalman filer can successfully lock on to a desired inter-area mode and obtain a 31% improvement in critical clearing time as well as improved damping.

Battery energy storage systems to improve power system frequency response

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are becoming feasible to provide system frequency support due to recent developments in technologies and plummeting cost. Adequate response of these devices becomes critical as the penetration of the renewable energy sources increases in the power system. This paper proposes effective use of BESS to improve system frequency performance. The optimal capacity and the operation scheme of BESS for frequency regulation are obtained using two staged optimization process. Furthermore, the effectiveness of BESS for improving the system frequency response is verified using dynamic simulations.

An efficiency optimization scheme for bidirectional inductive power transfer systems

Unidirectional inductive power transfer (UIPT) systems allow loads to consume power while bidirectional IPT (BIPT) systems are more suitable for loads requiring two way power flow such as vehicle to grid (V2G) applications with electric vehicles (EVs). Many attempts have been made to improve the performance of BIPT systems. In a typical BIPT system, the output power is control using the pickup converter phase shift angle (PSA) while the primary converter regulates the input current. This paper proposes an optimized phase shift modulation strategy to minimize the coil losses of a series – series (SS) compensated BIPT system. In addition, a comprehensive study on the impact of power converters on the overall efficiency of the system is also presented. A closed loop controller is proposed to optimize the overall efficiency of the BIPT system. Theoretical results are presented in comparison to both simulations and measurements of a 0.5 kW prototype to show the benefits of the proposed concept. Results convincingly demonstrate the applicability of the proposed system offering high efficiency over a wide range of output power.

Activation of membrane-bound proteins and receptor systems: A link between tissue kallikrein and the KLK-related peptidases

The 15 members of the kallikrein-related serine peptidase (KLK) family have diverse tissue-specific expression profiles and roles in a range of cellular processes, including proliferation, migration, invasion, differentiation, inflammation and angiogenesis that are required in both normal physiology as well as pathological conditions. These roles require cleavage of a range of substrates, including extracellular matrix proteins, growth factors, cytokines as well as other proteinases. In addition, it has been clear since the earliest days of KLK research that cleavage of cell surface substrates is also essential in a range of KLK-mediated cellular processes where these peptidases are essentially acting as agonists and antagonists. In this review we focus on these KLK-regulated cell surface receptor systems including bradykinin receptors, proteinase-activated receptors, as well as the plasminogen activator, ephrins and their receptors, and hepatocyte growth factor/Met receptor systems and other plasma membrane proteins. From this analysis it is clear that in many physiological and pathological settings KLKs have the potential to regulate multiple receptor systems simultaneously; an important issue when these peptidases and substrates are targeted in disease.

Decision making in social neurobiological systems modeled as transitions in dynamic pattern formation

Extant models of decision making in social neurobiological systems have typically explained task dynamics as characterized by transitions between two attractors. In this paper, we model a three-attractor task exemplified in a team sport context. The model showed that an attacker–defender dyadic system can be described by the angle x between a vector connecting the participants and the try line. This variable was proposed as an order parameter of the system and could be dynamically expressed by integrating a potential function. Empirical evidence has revealed that this kind of system has three stable attractors, with a potential function of the form V(x)=−k1x+k2ax2/2−bx4/4+x6/6, where k1 and k2 are two control parameters. Random fluctuations were also observed in system behavior, modeled as white noise εt, leading to the motion equation dx/dt = −dV/dx+Q0.5εt, where Q is the noise variance. The model successfully mirrored the behavioral dynamics of agents in a social neurobiological system, exemplified by interactions of players in a team sport.