Exchange rate forecasters’ performance: evidence of skill?

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters’ performance is skill-based. ‘Superior’ forecasters show consistent ability as their forecasting success holds across currencies. They seem to possess knowledge on the role of fundamentals in explaining exchange rate behavior, as indicated by better interest rate forecasts. Superior forecasters are more experienced than the median forecaster and have fewer personnel responsibilities. Accordingly, foreign exchange markets may function in less puzzling and irrational ways than is often thought.

Padrões distributivos e zoogeografia dos moluscos da plataforma continental brasileira: Parte III. Comissão Oceanográfica Espiríto Santo I

One hundred senventy-five species of marine mollusks have been identified in the Expedition Espírito Santo I. Standing out the species Margarites olivaceus (Brown, 1827); Cyclostremiscus caraboboensis Weishord, 1962; Balcis gibba Folin, 1867; Triphora compsa (Dall, 1927); Henrya af. goldmani Bartsh, 1947 and Limaea subovata Jeffreys, 1876 as they have not been previously assigned to Brazil. The analysis of the geographical distribution patterns points out the dominance of the species with thermophiles affinities. This situation evidences the importance of the Brazilian Current in the maintanance of the biogeographical structure of the studied region. However, it is the analysis of the cryophiles species that shows the Cabo Frio region as an ecological filter quite more permeable to the species with thermophile affinities than to the cryophiles ones. The existence of this barrier and the endemism rate (4.27%) characterize the region that extends from the south of Cabo Frio as a transition between the two patterns cited above. Therefore they do not corroborate in malacological parameters the proposition made by Palacio (1982) for the individualization of the Paulista Province.

Matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry for direct bacterial identification from positive blood culture pellets.

An ammonium chloride erythrocyte-lysing procedure was used to prepare a bacterial pellet from positive blood cultures for direct matrix-assisted laser desorption-ionization time of flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry analysis. Identification was obtained for 78.7% of the pellets tested. Moreover, 99% of the MALDI-TOF identifications were congruent at the species level when considering valid scores. This fast and accurate method is promising.

Intergenerational Mobility and the Informative Content of Surnames

We propose a new methodology for measuring intergenerational mobility in economic wellbeing. Our method is based on the joint distribution of surnames and economic outcomes. It circumvents the need for intergenerational panel data, a long-standing stumbling block for understanding mobility. A single cross-sectional dataset is su cient. Our main idea is simple. If `inheritance' is important for economic outcomes, then rare surnames should predict economic outcomes in the cross-section. This is because rare surnames are indicative of familial linkages. Of course, if the number of rare surnames is small, this won't work. But rare surnames are abundant in the highly-skewed nature of surname distributions from most Western societies. We develop a model that articulates this idea and shows that the more important is inheritance, the more informative will be surnames. This result is robust to a variety of di erent assumptions about fertility and mating. We apply our method using the 2001 census from Catalonia, a large region of Spain. We use educational attainment as a proxy for overall economic well-being. Our main nding is that mobility has decreased among the di erent generations of the 20th century. A complementary analysis based on sibling correlations con rms our results and provides a robustness check on our method. Our model and our data allow us to examine one possible explanation for the observed decrease in mobility. We nd that the degree of assortative mating has increased over time. Overall, we argue that our method has promise because it can tap the vast mines of census data that are available in a heretofore unexploited manner.

Tracking of Stepwise Ablation of Persistent Atrial Fibrillation using Synchronization of nearby Electrogams

Intracardiac organization indices such as atrial fibril- lation (AF) cycle length (AFCL) have been used to track the efficiency of stepwise catheter ablation (step-CA) of long-standing persistent AF (pers-AF), however, with lim- ited success. The timing between nearby bipolar intracar- diac electrograms (EGMs) reflects the spatial dynamics of wavelets during AF. The extent of synchronization between EGMs is an indirect measure of AF spatial organization. The synchronization between nearby EGMs during step- CA of pers-AF was evaluated using new indices based on the cross-correlation. The first one (spar(W)) quantifies the sparseness of the cross-correlation of local activation times. The second one (OI(W)) reflects the local concen- tration around the largest peak of the cross-correlation. By computing their relative evolution during step-CA until AF termination (AF-term), we found that OI(W) appeared su- perior to AFCL and spar(W) to track the effect of step-CA "en route" to AF-term.

Cardenolides, induced responses, and interactions between above- and belowground herbivores of milkweed (Asclepias spp.).

Theory has long predicted allocation patterns for plant defense against herbivory, but only recently have both above- and belowground plant defenses been considered simultaneously. Milkweeds in the genus Asclepias are a classic chemically defended clade of plants with toxic cardenolides (cardiac glycosides) and pressurized latex employed as anti-herbivore weapons. Here we combine a comparative approach to investigate broadscale patterns in allocation to root vs. shoot defenses across species with a species-specific experimental approach to identify the consequences of defense allocational shifts on a specialist herbivore. Our results show phylogenetic conservatism for inducibility of shoot cardenolides by an aboveground herbivore, with only four closely related tropical species showing significant induction; the eight temperate species examined were not inducible. Allocation to root and shoot cardenolides was positively correlated across species, and this relationship was maintained after accounting for phylogenetic nonindependence. In contrast to long-standing theoretical predictions, we found no evidence for a trade-off between constitutive and induced cardenolides; indeed the two were positively correlated across species in both roots and shoots. Finally, specialist root and shoot herbivores of common milkweed (A. syriaca) had opposing effects on latex production, and these effects had consequences for caterpillar growth consistent with latex providing resistance. Although cardenolides were not affected by our treatments, A. syriaca allocated 40% more cardenolides to shoots over roots. We conclude that constitutive and inducible defenses are not trading off across plant species, and shoots of Asclepias are more inducible than roots. Phylogenetic conservatism cannot explain the observed patterns of cardenolide levels across species, but inducibility per se was conserved in a tropical clade. Finally, given that above- and belowground herbivores can systemically alter the defensive phenotype of plants, we concur with recent calls for a whole-plant perspective in testing models of plant defense allocation.

The role of fixed delays in neuronal rate models

Fixed delays in neuronal interactions arise through synaptic and dendritic processing. Previous work has shown that such delays, which play an important role in shaping the dynamics of networks of large numbers of spiking neurons with continuous synaptic kinetics, can be taken into account with a rate model through the addition of an explicit, fixed delay. Here we extend this work to account for arbitrary symmetric patterns of synaptic connectivity and generic nonlinear transfer functions. Specifically, we conduct a weakly nonlinear analysis of the dynamical states arising via primary instabilities of the stationary uniform state. In this way we determine analytically how the nature and stability of these states depend on the choice of transfer function and connectivity. While this dependence is, in general, nontrivial, we make use of the smallness of the ratio in the delay in neuronal interactions to the effective time constant of integration to arrive at two general observations of physiological relevance. These are: 1 - fast oscillations are always supercritical for realistic transfer functions. 2 - Traveling waves are preferred over standing waves given plausible patterns of local connectivity.

A never-ending debate: Demand versus supply water policies. A CGE analysis for Catalonia

Water scarcity is a long-standing problem in Catalonia, as there are significant differences in the spatial and temporal distribution of water through the territory. There has consequently been a debate for many years about whether the solution to water scarcity must be considered in terms of efficiency or equity, the role that the public sector must play and the role that market-based instruments should play in water management. The aim of this paper is to use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the advantages and disadvantages associated with different policy instruments, from both a supply and a demand viewpoint, which can be applied to water management in Catalonia. We also introduce an ecological sector in our CGE model, allowing us to analyze the environmental impact of the alternative policies simulated. The calibration of the exogenous variables of the CGE model is performed by using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Catalan economy with 2001 data. The results suggest that taking into account the principle of sustainability of the resource, the policy debate between supply and demand in water policies is obsolete, and a new combination of policies is required to respect the different values associated with water. Keywords: Water Policies; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Economic Effects; Environmental Effects.

Can Remotely Sensed Meteorological Data Significantly Contribute to Reduce Costs of Tsetse Surveys?

A 0.125 degree raster or grid-based Geographic Information System with data on tsetse, trypanosomosis, animal production, agriculture and land use has recently been developed in Togo. This paper addresses the problem of generating tsetse distribution and abundance maps from remotely sensed data, using a restricted amount of field data. A discriminant analysis model is tested using contemporary tsetse data and remotely sensed, low resolution data acquired from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and Meteosat platforms. A split sample technique is adopted where a randomly selected part of the field measured data (training set) serves to predict the other part (predicted set). The obtained results are then compared with field measured data per corresponding grid-square. Depending on the size of the training set the percentage of concording predictions varies from 80 to 95 for distribution figures and from 63 to 74 for abundance. These results confirm the potential of satellite data application and multivariate analysis for the prediction, not only of the tsetse distribution, but more importantly of their abundance. This opens up new avenues because satellite predictions and field data may be combined to strengthen or substitute one another and thus reduce costs of field surveys.

Effects of a dual inhibitor of angiotensin converting enzyme and neutral endopeptidase, MDL 100,240, on endocrine and renal functions in healthy volunteers.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the endocrine and renal effects of the dual inhibitor of angiotensin converting enzyme and neutral endopeptidase, MDL 100,240. DESIGN: A randomized, placebo-controlled, crossover study was performed in 12 healthy volunteers. METHODS: MDL 100,240 was administered intravenously over 20 min at single doses of 6.25 and 25 mg in subjects with a sodium intake of 280 (n = 6) or 80 (n = 6) mmol/day. Measurements were taken of supine and standing blood pressure, plasma angiotensin converting enzyme activity, angiotensin II, atrial natriuretic peptide, urinary atrial natriuretic peptide and cyclic GMP excretion, effective renal plasma flow and the glomerular filtration rate as p-aminohippurate and inulin clearances, electrolytes and segmental tubular function by endogenous lithium clearance. RESULTS: Supine systolic blood pressure was consistently decreased by MDL 100,240, particularly after the high dose and during the low-salt intake. Diastolic blood pressure and heart rate did not change. Plasma angiotensin converting enzyme activity decreased rapidly and dose-dependently. In both the high- and the low-salt treatment groups, plasma angiotensin II levels fell and renin activity rose accordingly, while plasma atrial natriuretic peptide levels remained unchanged. In contrast, urinary atrial natriuretic peptide excretion increased dose-dependently under both diets, as did urinary cyclic GMP excretion. Effective renal plasma flow and the glomerular filtration rate did not change. The urinary flow rate increased markedly during the first 2 h following administration of either dose of MDL 100,240 (P < 0.001) and, similarly, sodium excretion tended to increase from 0 to 4 h after the dose (P = 0.07). Potassium excretion remained stable. Proximal and distal fractional sodium reabsorption were not significantly altered by the treatment. Uric acid excretion was increased. The safety and clinical tolerance of MDL 100,240 were good. CONCLUSIONS: The increased fall in blood pressure in normal volunteers together with the preservation of renal hemodynamics and the increased urinary volume, atrial natriuretic peptide and cyclic GMP excretion distinguish MDL 100,240 as a double-enzyme inhibitor from inhibitors of the angiotensin converting enzyme alone. The differences appear to be due, at least in part, to increased renal exposure to atrial natriuretic peptide following neutral endopeptidase blockade.

Evolutionary ecology of learning: insights from fruit flies

Ecologically and evolutionarily oriented research on learning has traditionally been carried out on vertebrates and bees. While less sophisticated than those animals, fruit flies (Drosophila) are capable of several forms of learning, and have an advantage of a short generation time, which makes them an ideal system for experimental evolution studies. This review summarizes the insights into evolutionary questions about learning gained in the last decade from evolutionary experiments on Drosophila. These experiments demonstrate that Drosophila have the genetic potential to evolve substantially improved learning performance in ecologically relevant learning tasks. In at least one set of selected populations the improved learning generalized to another task than that used to impose selection, involving a different behavior, different stimuli, and a different sensory channel for the aversive reinforcement. This improvement in learning ability was associated with reduction in other fitness-related traits, such as larval competitive ability and lifespan, pointing out to evolutionary trade-offs of improved learning. These trade-offs were confirmed by other evolutionary experiments where reduction in learning performance was observed as a correlated response to selection for tolerance to larval nutritional stress or for delayed aging. Such trade-offs could be one reason why fruit flies have not fully used up their evolutionary potential for learning ability. Finally, another evolutionary experiment with Drosophila provided the first direct evidence for the long-standing ideas that learning can under some circumstances accelerate and in other slow down genetically-based evolutionary change. These results demonstrate the usefulness of fruit flies as a model system to address evolutionary questions about learning.

Acquired epileptic dysgraphia: a longitudinal study.

A male presenting with benign partial epilepsy with rolandic spikes from the age of 7 years was evaluated at age 11 years for worsening of his epilepsy associated with a specific regression of graphomotor skills. A longitudinal study over nearly 2 years showed an improvement in handwriting to an almost normal level under modified antiepileptic therapy. A detailed analysis with a computer-monitored graphics table showed at first a rapid improvement of skills followed by protracted slower progress. We argue that the initial rapid recovery of skills was directly linked to the improvement of his epilepsy. The slower late acquisition of motor programmes that had never been fully established was due to long-standing interference by his epilepsy. The specificity of the deficit within the graphomotor system and its possible neurobiological basis are also discussed. The analytical method and approach used in a single patient might provide an example for other patients in whom epilepsy can interfere in the acquisition, progress, and maintenance of new skills and can be responsible for selective deficits.

Law and the practise of principle in diverse societies

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom, entre 2007 i 2009. L’objecte principal del projecte ha estat analitzar les implicacions jurídico-polítiques i institucionals d’una teoria de la justícia i la igualtat liberals aplicada a societats multiculturals amb un marcat predomini de la diversitat cultural. L’anàlisi desenvolupa una línia d'investigació interdisciplinar - entre el dret i la teoria política - iniciada en una tesis doctoral sobre multiculturalisme i drets de les minories culturals (UPF, 2000) que va culminar en la publicació de Group Rights as Human Rights (Springer, 2006). La recerca adopta com a punt de partida les conclusions de l'esmentada obra, en especial, la rellevància del reconeixement de drets col•lectius; tanmateix, el tipus de qüestions plantejades, l’enfoc i la metodologia emprades són substancialment diferents. En concret, s'adrecen preguntes específiques sobre el model i aspiracions del constitucionalisme democràtic i el paper del dret en contextos multiculturals. També s’atorga un pes central a la dimensió institucional dels models de gestió de la diversitat que s’analitzen, prioritzant un enfocament comparatiu a partir de l’estudi de controvèrsies concretes. L’objectiu és superar algunes limitacions importants de la literatura actual, com ara la tendència a examinar en abstracte la compatibilitat de determinades demandes amb el constitucionalisme democràtic, sense abordar el funcionament d'estratègies de gestió de la diversitat cultural emprades en contextos concrets. Els treballs producte d'aquest projecte articulen les línies bàsiques d’un model pluralista, basat en principis més que en regles, que desafia els plantejaments dominants actualment. Aquest model es caracteritza pel compromís amb la legitimitat i igualtat comparatives, rebutjant el paternalisme i les visions liberals típiques sobre el paper de la regulació. La presumpció de l’“standing” moral dels grups identitaris és fonamental per tal de considerar-los interlocutors vàlids amb interessos genuïns. També s’argumenta que la integració social en contextos multiculturals no depèn tant de l’eliminació del conflicte sinó, sobre tot, d’una gestió eficient que eviti abusos de poder sistemàtics. El model defensa el rol del dret en la institucionalització del diàleg intercultural, però admet que el diàleg no necessàriament condueix a l’acord o a una estructura reguladora coherent i uniforme. Les aspiracions del ordre jurídic pluralista són més modestes: afavorir la negociació i resolució en cada conflicte, malgrat la persistència de la fragmentació i la provisionalitat dels acords. La manca d'un marc regulador comú esdevé una virtut en la mesura que permet la interacció de diferents subordres; una interacció governada per una multiplicitat de regles no necessàriament harmòniques. Els avantatges i problemes d’aquest model s'analitzen a partir de l'anàlisi de l’estructura fragmentària de l'ordre jurídic internacional i del règim Europeu de drets humans.