Näkemyksiä käsityöopetuksen kehitystarpeista yhtenäisessä perusopetuksessa

The objective of this study was to find out what development targets craft teachers could identify in the comprehensive school classes 1 through 9 after the curriculum of the year 2004 had declared craft education uniform in textile and technical craft. Earlier research had shown that after this curricular reform craft education had been carried out in dissimilar ways in different municipalities and schools. This causes differences in the contents of teaching and thus in learning outcomes on national level. The most problematic situations occur on the 7th grade when the classes contain pupils with very heterogeneous skill levels. My intention is to find general themes in craft education that are significant when considering developmental objectives. The problem was explored by four research questions as follows: What kind of problems have craft teachers confronted during the application of the curriculum 2004, what are the most important objectives and contents in craft for the comprehensive school, how craft education should be arranged in the future and what prerequisites should be considered to generate high quality craft education? The study was carried out by a qualitative research approach. The informants consisted of 21 persons, out of which 15 were textile or technical teachers and six were textile or technical teacher students. The research data was collected in the form of short open narratives, based on a partially structured inquiry. Respectively content analysis was applied for analysis of the narratives. Research results revealed that craft teachers were mainly satisfied in uniform craft and hoped that both textile and technical craft could be compulsory school subjects for both genders. Textile and technical craft should be defined as separate independent school subjects, both of which should be developed with broader and high quality contents. Craft subjects should be allocated more teaching time. Teachers asked for a more logically proceeding curriculum, initiating from the beginning to the end of the compulsory school. It was suggested that this could be done by a qualified subject teacher. A uniform curriculum solution must be found for the whole country.

Dissection of the genetic background of childhood onset progressive myoclonic epilepsies

The progressive myoclonic epilepsies (PMEs) are a clinically and etiologically heterogeneous group of symptomatic epilepsies characterized by myoclonus, tonic-clonic seizures, psychomotor regression and ataxia. Different disorders have been classified as PMEs. Of these, the group of neuronal ceroid lipofuscinoses (NCLs) comprise an entity that has onset in childhood, being the most common cause of neurodegeneration in children. The primary aim of this thesis was to dissect the molecular genetic background of patients with childhood onset PME by studying candidate genes and attempting to identify novel PME-associated genes. Another specific aim was to study the primary protein properties of the most recently identified member of the NCL-causing proteins, MFSD8. To dissect the genetic background of a cohort of Turkish patients with childhood onset PME, a screen of the NCL-associated genes PPT1, TPP1, CLN3, CLN5, CLN6, MFSD8, CLN8 and CTSD was performed. Altogether 49 novel mutations were identified, which together with 56 mutations found by collaborators raised the total number of known NCL mutations to 364. Fourteen of the novel mutations affect the recently identified MFSD8 gene, which had originally been identified in a subset of mainly Turkish patients as the underlying cause of CLN7 disease. To investigate the distribution of MFSD8 defects, a total of 211 patients of different ethnic origins were evaluated for mutations in the gene. Altogether 45 patients from nine different countries were provided with a CLN7 molecular diagnosis, denoting the wide geographical occurrence of MFSD8 defects. The mutations are private with only one having been established by a founder-effect in the Roma population from the former Czechoslovakia. All mutations identified except one are associated with the typical clinical picture of variant late-infantile NCL. To address the trafficking properties of MFSD8, lysosomal targeting of the protein was confirmed in both neuronal and non-neuronal cells. The major determinant for this lysosomal sorting was identified to be an N-terminal dileucine based signal (9-EQEPLL-14), recognized by heterotetrameric AP-1 adaptor proteins, suggesting that MFSD8 takes the direct trafficking pathway en route to the lysosomes. Expression studies revealed the neurons as the primary cell-type and the hippocampus and cerebellar granular cell layer as the predominant regions in which MFSD8 is expressed. To identify novel genes associated with childhood onset PME, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genomewide scan was performed in three small families and 18 sporadic patients followed by homozygosity mapping to determine the candidate loci. One of the families and a sporadic patient were positive for mutations in PLA2G6, a gene that had previously been shown to cause infantile neuroaxonal dystrophy. Application of next-generation sequencing of candidate regions in the remaining two families led to identification of a homozygous missense mutation in USP19 for the first and TXNDC6 for the second family. Analysis of the 18 sporadic cases mapped the best candidate interval in a 1.5 Mb region on chromosome 7q21. Screening of the positional candidate KCTD7 revealed six mutations in seven unrelated families. All patients with mutations in KCTD7 were reported to have early onset PME, rapid disease progression leading to dementia and no pathologic hallmarks. The identification of KCTD7 mutations in nine patients and the clinical delineation of their phenotype establish KCTD7 as a gene for early onset PME. The findings presented in this thesis denote MFSD8 and KCTD7 as genes commonly associated with childhood onset symptomatic epilepsy. The disease-associated role of TXNDC6 awaits verification through identification of additional mutations in patients with similar phenotypes. Completion of the genetic spectrum underlying childhood onset PMEs and understanding of the gene products functions will comprise important steps towards understanding the underlying pathogenetic mechanisms, and will possibly shed light on the general processes of neurodegeneration and nervous system regulation, facilitating the diagnosis, classification and possibly treatment of the affected cases.

Biomass gasification: Environmentally sound technology for decentralized power generation, a case study from India

This study aims at understanding the need for decentralized power generation systems and to explore the potential, feasibility and environmental implications of biomass gasifier-based electricity generation systems for village electrification. Electricity needs of villages are in the range of 5–20 kW depending on the size of the village. Decentralized power generation systems are desirable for low load village situations as the cost of power transmission lines is reduced and transmission and distribution losses are minimised. A biomass gasifier-based electricity generation system is one of the feasible options; the technology is readily available and has already been field tested. To meet the lighting and stationary power needs of 500,000 villages in India the land required is only 16 Mha compared to over 100 Mha of degraded land available for tree planting. In fact all the 95 Mt of woody biomass required for gasification could be obtained through biomass conservation programmes such as biogas and improved cook stoves. Thus dedication of land for energy plantations may not be required. A shift to a biomass gasifier-based power generation system leads to local benefits such as village self reliance, local employment and skill generation and promotion of in situ plant diversity plus global benefits like no net CO2 emission (as sustainable biomass harvests are possible) and a reduction in CO2 emissions (when used to substitute thermal power and diesel in irrigation pump sets).

Löydöstä muinaispuvuksi : arkeologisten tekstiilien ennallistaminen

From a find to an ancient costume - reconstruction of archaeological textiles Costume tells who we are. It warms and protects us, but also tells about our identity: gender, age, family, social group, work, religion and ethnicity. Textile fabrication, use and trade have been an important part of human civilization for more than 10 000 years. There are plenty of archaeological textile findings, but they are small, fragmentary and their interpretation requires special skills. Finnish textile findings from the younger Iron Age have already been studied for more than hundred years. They have also been used as a base for several reconstructions called muinaispuku , ancient costume. Thesis surveys the ancient costume reconstruction done in Finland and discusses the objectives of the reconstruction projects. The earlier reconstruction projects are seen as a part of the national project of constructing a glorious past for Finnish nationality, and the part women took in this project. Many earlier reconstructions are designed to be festive costumes for wealthy ladies. In the 1980s and 1990s many new ancient costume reconstructions were made, differing from their predecessors at the pattern of the skirt. They were also done following the principles of making a scientific reconstruction more closely. At the same time historical re-enactment and living history as a hobby have raised in popularity, and the use of ancient costumes is widening from festive occasions to re-enactment purposes. A hypothesis of the textile craft methods used in younger Iron Age Finland is introduced. Archaeological findings from Finland and neighboring countries, ethnological knowledge of textile crafts and experimental archaeology have been used as a basis for this proposition. The yarn was spinned with a spindle, the fabrics woven on a warp-weighted loom and dyed with natural colors. Bronze spiral applications and complicated tablet-woven bands have possibly been done by specialist craftswomen or -men. The knowledge of the techniques and results of experimenting and experimental archaeology gives a possibility to review the success of existing ancient costume reconstructions as scientific reconstructions. Only one costume reconstruction project, the Kaarina costume fabricated in Kurala Kylämäki museum, has been done using as authentic methods as possible. The use of ancient craft methods is time-consuming and expensive. This fact can be seen as one research result itself for it demonstrates how valuable the ancient textiles have been also in their time of use. In the costume reconstruction work, the skill of a craftswoman and her knowledge of ancient working methods is strongly underlined. Textile research is seen as a process, where examination of original textiles and reconstruction experiments discuss with each other. Reconstruction projects can give a lot both to the research of Finnish younger Iron Age and the popularization of archaeological knowledge. The reconstruction is never finished, and also the earlier reconstructions should be reviewed in the light of new findings.

Onttojen puiden lahopuukovakuoriaiset — kolmen pyydystyypin vertailu

Vanhat ja ontot puut ovat tärkeä elinympäristö monelle lahopuusta riippuvaiselle eliölajille. Onttoihin puihin on erikoistunut suuri määrä myös vaarantuneita ja harvinaisia hyönteislajeja, jotka elävät puun onkalon seinämillä tai onkalon pohjalle kerääntyvässä orgaanisessa aineksessa, ns. mulmissa. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, mikä kolmesta pyydystyypistä (ikkuna-, vuoka- ja kuoppapyydys) soveltuu parhaiten onttojen puiden lahopuukovakuoriaisten pyyntiin. Lisäksi tavoitteena oli kartoittaa hyönteisnäytteiden ensimmäiseen laboratoriokäsittelyyn vaadittua aikaa. Tutkimuksessa oli mukana vanhoja rungostaan onttoutuneita lehmuksia, tammia ja vaahteroita pääkaupunkiseudun puisto- ja kartanoalueilta. Puiden onkaloiden sisään aseteltiin ikkuna-, vuoka- ja kuoppapyydyksiä, kaksi kutakin tyyppiä ja ne tyhjennettiin kolmen viikon välein touko-heinäkuussa 2006. Pyydyksiä oli siis yhteensä 90 per pyyntijakso. Kun näytteistä eroteltiin halutut hyönteislahkot (mukaanlukien kovakuoriaiset) niiden käsittelyyn käytetty aika kirjattiin ylös. Aineistosta tunnistettiin yhteensä 3825 kovakuoriaisyksilöä ja 212 lajia, joista lahopuusta riippuvaisia oli yhteensä 3398 yksilöä ja 121 lajia. Ikkunapyydyksissä esiintyi yhteensä 1639 yksilöä ja 140 lajia, vuokapyydyksissä 1506 yksilöä ja 134 lajia, kuoppapyydyksissä 680 yksilöä ja 111 lajia. Näytteiden käsittelyaikojen keskiarvot olivat 48,3 minuuttia ikkunapyydykselle, 65,5 minuuttia vuokapyydykselle ja 34,1 kuoppapyydykselle. Lajistokoostumuksen huomioiva ?-diversiteetti erosi huomattavasti pyydysten välillä, se oli 36,5 % ikkuna- ja vuokapyydysten välillä, 13,1 % ikkuna- ja kuoppapyydysten välillä ja 14,2 % vuoka- ja kuoppapyydysten välillä. Ikkuna- ja vuokapyydysten välillä ei havaittu tilastollisesti merkitsevää eroa saproksyylilajien (p<0,05), -yksilöiden (p<0,05) tai käsittelyaikojen (p<0,05) keskiarvoissa. Ikkuna- ja vuokapyydyksillä saatiin keskimäärin selvästi enemmän saproksyylilajeja ja –yksilöitä kuoppapyydykseen verrattuna. Kuoppapyydyksellä saatiin kokonaisyksilömäärään verrattuna suhteellisesti vähemmän saproksyylejä (59 %) kuin ikkuna- (69 %) ja vuokapyydyksillä (71 %). Ikkunapyydykset olivat tehokkain pyydystyyppi vertailtaessa pyydysten keräämää saproksyyliyksilömäärää suhteessa aineiston käsittelyn vaatimaan aikaan. Tehokkuus (yksilöä minuutissa) ikkunapyydykselle oli 0,74, vuokapyydykselle 0,43 ja kuoppapyydykselle 0,21. Ikkunapyydyksiä ei ole aikaisemmin käytetty puun onkalon sisällä hyönteisiä pyydettäessä vaan ne ovat aikaisemmissa tutkimuksissa roikkuneet onkalon ulkopuolella. Ikkunapyydykset kuitenkin toimivat erinomaisesti myös onkaloiden sisällä. Ikkuna- sekä vuokapyydys toimivatkin selkeästi paremmin lahopuukovakuoriaisten pyynnissä verrattuna kuoppapyydykseen, jonka poisjättäminen olisi kuitenkin tuottanut huomattavasti lajiköyhemmän aineiston. Mahdollisimman monimuotoisen onttojen puiden lahopuukovakuoriaislajiston keräämiseksi tulisi käyttää ikkuna- tai vuokapyydyksiä yhdessä kuoppapyydysten kanssa.

Seasonal prediction of the Indian monsoon

Under the project `Seasonal Prediction of the Indian Monsoon' (SPIM), the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by five atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) during 1985-2004 was assessed. The project was a collaborative effort of the coordinators and scientists from the different modelling groups across the country. All the runs were made at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC) at Bangalore on the PARAM Padma supercomputing system. Two sets of simulations were made for this purpose. In the first set, the AGCMs were forced by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) for May-September during 1985-2004. In the second set, runs were made for 1987, 1988, 1994, 1997 and 2002 forced by SST which was obtained by assuming that the April anomalies persist during May-September. The results of the first set of runs show, as expected from earlier studies, that none of the models were able to simulate the correct sign of the anomaly of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall for all the years. However, among the five models, one simulated the correct sign in the largest number of years and the second model showed maximum skill in the simulation of the extremes (i.e. droughts or excess rainfall years). The first set of runs showed some common bias which could arise either from an excessive sensitivity of the models to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or an inability of the models to simulate the link of the Indian monsoon rainfall to Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), or both. Analysis of the second set of runs showed that with a weaker ENSO forcing, some models could simulate the link with EQUINOO, suggesting that the errors in the monsoon simulations with observed SST by these models could be attributed to unrealistically high sensitivity to ENSO.

The level of sequestered calcium in vegetative amoebae of Dictyostelium discoideum can predict post-aggregative cell fate

When freshly starved amoebae of Dictyostelium discoideum are stained with chlortetracycline (CTC), a cell type-specific fluorescent probe for membrane-associated calcium (Ca2+) the resulting fluorescence distribution falls into two functional classes. Fluorescence-activated cell sorting shows that highly fluorescing amoebae tend to enter the prestalk pathway while those with low fluorescence tend to become prespores. In the light of previous findings, these results indicate that in addition to cell cycle phase at starvation, phenotypic variation in the level of sequestered calcium is an early correlate of cell fate.

A Crystallization Technique For the Enantiomer Resolution of Conglomerates- (+/-)-4-Methoxyphenyl 1-Phenylethyl Ketone

The sorting of crystals of (+/-)-4-methoxyphenyl 1-phenylethyl ketone into its enantiomers is facilitated by crystallisation in a cellular grid made of filter paper.

Forecasting rain for groundnut farmers�how good is good enough

: We illustrate how climatological information about adverse weather events and meteorological forecasts (when available) can be used to decide between alternative strategies so as to maximize the long-term average returns for rainfed groundnut in semi-arid parts of Karnataka, We show that until the skill of the forecast, i.e. probability of an adverse event occurring when it is forecast, is above a certain threshold, the forecast has no impact on the optimum strategy, This threshold is determined by the loss in yield due to the adverse weather event and the cost of the mitigatory measures, For the specific case of groundnut, it is found that while for combating some pests/diseases, climatological information is adequate, for others a forecast of sufficient skill would have a significant impact on the productivity.

The determination of spatial pattern in Dictyostelium discoideum

Free-living amoebae of the cellular slime mould Dictyostelium discoideum aggregate when starved and give rise to a long and thin multicellular structure, the slug. The slug resembles a metazoan embryo, and as with other embryos it is possible to specify a fate map. In the case of Dictyostelium discoideum the map is especially simple: cells in the anterior fifth of the slug die and form a stalk while the majority of those in the posterior differentiate into spores. The genesis of this anterior-posterior distinction is the subject of our review. In particular, we ask: what are the relative roles of individual pre-aggregative predispositions and post-aggregative position in determining cell fate? We review the literature on the subject and conclude that both factors are important. Variations in nutritional status, or in cell cycle phase at starvation, can bias the probability that an amoeba differentiates into a stalk cell or a spore. On the other hand, isolates, or slug fragments, consisting of only prestalk cells or only prespore cells can regulate so as to result in a normal range of both cell types. We identify three levels of control, each being responsible for guiding patterning in normal development: (i) 'coin tossing', whereby a cell autonomously exhibits a preference for developing along either the stalk or the spore pathway with relative probabilities that can be influenced by the environment; (ii) 'chemical kinetics', whereby prestalk and prespore cells originate from undifferentiated amoebae on a probabilistic basis but, having originated, interact (e.g. via positive and negative feedbacks), and the interaction influences the possibility of conversion of one cell type into the other, and (iii) 'positional information', in which the spatial distribution of morphogens in the slug influences the pathway of differentiation. In the case of possibilities (i) and (ii), sorting out of like cell types leads to the final spatial pattern. In the case of possibility (iii), the pattern arises in situ.

Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: External conditions versus internal feedbacks

The potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon due to slowly varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is examined. Factors responsible for limiting the predictability are also investigated. Three multiyear simulations with the R30 version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are carried out for this purpose, The mean monsoon simulated by this model is realistic including the mean summer precipitation over the Indian continent. The interannual variability of the large-scale component of the monsoon such as the "monsoon shear index" and its teleconnection with Pacific SST is well simulated by the model in a 15-yr integration with observed SST as boundary condition. On regional scales, the skill in simulating the interannual variability of precipitation over the Indian continent by the model is rather modest and its simultaneous correlation with eastern Pacific SST is negative but poor as observed. The poor predictability of precipitation over the Indian region in the model is related to the fact that contribution to the interannual variability over this region due to slow SST variations [El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related] is comparable to those due to regional-scale fluctuations unrelated to ENSO SST. The physical mechanism through which ENSO SST tend to produce reduction in precipitation over the Indian continent is also elucidated. A measure of internal variability of the model summer monsoon is obtained from a 20-yr integration of the same model with fixed annual cycle SST as boundary conditions but with predicted soil moisture and snow cover. A comparison of summer monsoon indexes between this run and the observed SST run shows that the internal oscillations can account for a large fraction of the simulated monsoon variability. The regional-scale oscillations in the observed SST run seems to arise from these internal oscillations. It is discovered that most of the interannual internal variability is due to an internal quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the model atmosphere. Such a QBO is also found in the author's third 18-yr simulation in which fixed annual cycle of SST as well as soil moisture and snow cover are prescribed. This shows that the model QBO is not due to land-surface-atmosphere interaction. It is proposed that the model QBO arises due to an interaction between nonlinear intraseasonal oscillations and the annual cycle. Spatial structure of the QBO and its role in limiting the predictability of the Indian summer monsoon is discussed.

Stimulation by DIF causes an increase of intracellular Ca2+ in Dictyostelium discoideum

Using fluorescence- activated cell sorting (FAGS), we have studied the effect of the differentiation-inducing factor (DIF) on cellular Ca2+ in Dictyostelium discoideum. We have shown previously that freshly starved or postaggregation amoebae are heterogenous with respect to the amounts of cellular Ca2+ that they contain; the L or ''low Ca2+'' class exhibits a prespore tendency and the H or ''high Ca2+'' class exhibits a prestalk tendency. Upon adding DIF, within 2 min there is an approximately twofold increase in the relative fraction of amoebae falling in the H class. A major part of the increase is caused by Ca2+ influx from the extracellular medium. Therefore a rise in the level of cellular Ca2+ is an early step in the signal transduction pathway following stimulation by DIF. Also, in parallel with the cellular heterogeneity in respect of Ca2+ content, there is a heterogeneity in the response to DIF, which appears to be restricted to L cells. (C) 1997 Academic Press.

A model for tool-use traditions in primates: implications for the coevolution of culture and cognition

Inspired by the demonstration that tool-use variants among wild chimpanzees and orangutans qualify as traditions (or cultures), we developed a formal model to predict the incidence of these acquired specializations among wild primates and to examine the evolution of their underlying abilities. We assumed that the acquisition of the skill by an individual in a social unit is crucially controlled by three main factors, namely probability of innovation, probability of socially biased learning, and the prevailing social conditions (sociability, or number of potential experts at close proximity). The model reconfirms the restriction of customary tool use in wild primates to the most intelligent radiation, great apes; the greater incidence of tool use in more sociable populations of orangutans and chimpanzees; and tendencies toward tool manufacture among the most sociable monkeys. However, it also indicates that sociable gregariousness is far more likely to produce the maintenance of invented skills in a population than solitary life, where the mother is the only accessible expert. We therefore used the model to explore the evolution of the three key parameters. The most likely evolutionary scenario is that where complex skills contribute to fitness, sociability and/or the capacity for socially biased learning increase, whereas innovative abilities (i.e., intelligence) follow indirectly. We suggest that the evolution of high intelligence will often be a byproduct of selection on abilities for socially biased learning that are needed to acquire important skills, and hence that high intelligence should be most common in sociable rather than solitary organisms. Evidence for increased sociability during hominin evolution is consistent with this new hypothesis. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

IN-VITRO CYTOTOXICITY AND CELL CYCLE ANALYSIS OF TWO NOVEL BIS-1, 2, 4-TRIAZOLE DERIVATIVES: 1,4-BIS[5-(5-MERCAPTO-1,3,4-OXADIAZOL-2-yl-METHYL)-THIO-4-(p-TOLYL)-1, 2,4-TRIAZOL-3-yl]-BUTANE (MNP-14) AND 1,4-BIS[5-(CARBETHOXY-METHYL)-THIO-4-(p-ETHOXY PHENYL)-1,2,4-TRIAZOL-3-yl]-BUTANE (MNP-16)

In the present study, we have tested the cytotoxic and DNA damage activity of two novel bis-1,2,4 triazole derivatives, namely 1,4-bis[5-(5-mercapto-1,3,4-oxadiazol-2-yl-methyl)-thio4-(p-tolyl)-1,2 ,4-triazol-3-yl]-butane (MNP-14) and 1,4-bis[5-(carbethoxy-methyl)-thio-4-(p-ethoxy phenyl) -1,2,4-triazol-3-yl]-butane (MNP-16). The effect of these molecules on cellular apoptosis was also determined. The in-vitro cytotoxicity was evaluated by a 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyl tetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay as well as Trypan blue dye exclusion methods against human acute lymphoblastic leukemia (MOLT4) and lung cancer cells (A549). Our results showed that MNP-16 induced significant cytotoxicity (IC50 of 3-5 mu M) compared with MNP-14. The cytotoxicity induced by MNP-16 was time and concentration dependent. The cell cycle analysis by flow cytometry (fluorescence-activated cell sorting [FACS]) revealed that though there was a significant increase in the apoptotic population (sub-G1 phase) with an increased concentration of MNP-14 and 16, there was no cell cycle arrest. Further, the comet assay results indicated considerable DNA

Northeast monsoon over India: variability and prediction

South peninsular India experiences a large portion of the annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October to December). In this study, the facets of diurnal, intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of the northeast monsoon rainfall (the NEMR) over India have been examined. The analysis of satellite derived hourly rainfall reveals that there are distinct features of diurnal variation over the land and oceans during the season. Over the land, rainfall peaks during the late afternoon/evening, while over the oceans an early morning peak is observed. The harmonic analysis of hourly data reveals that the amplitude and variance are the largest over south peninsular India. The NEMR also exhibits significant intra-seasonal variability on a 20-40 day time scale. Analysis also shows significant northward propagation of the maximum cloud zone from south of equator to the south peninsula during the season. The NEMR exhibits large inter-annual variability with the co-efficient of variation (CV) of 25%. The positive phases of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are conducive for normal to above normal rainfall activity during the northeast monsoon. There are multi-decadal variations in the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR. During the period 2001-2010 the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR has significantly weakened. The analysis of seasonal rainfall hindcasts for the period 1960-2005 produced by the state-of-the-art coupled climate models, ENSEMBLES, reveals that the coupled models have very poor skill in predicting the inter-annual variability of the NEMR. This is mainly due to the inability of the ENSEMBLES models to simulate the positive relationship between ENSO and the NEMR correctly. Copyright (C) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society