Improving the performance of model-order selection criteria by partial-model selection search

The traditional searching method for model-order selection in linear regression is a nested full-parameters-set searching procedure over the desired orders, which we call full-model order selection. On the other hand, a method for model-selection searches for the best sub-model within each order. In this paper, we propose using the model-selection searching method for model-order selection, which we call partial-model order selection. We show by simulations that the proposed searching method gives better accuracies than the traditional one, especially for low signal-to-noise ratios over a wide range of model-order selection criteria (both information theoretic based and bootstrap-based). Also, we show that for some models the performance of the bootstrap-based criterion improves significantly by using the proposed partial-model selection searching method. Index Terms— Model order estimation, model selection, information theoretic criteria, bootstrap 1. INTRODUCTION Several model-order selection criteria can be applied to find the optimal order. Some of the more commonly used information theoretic-based procedures include Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) [1], corrected Akaike (AICc) [2], minimum description length (MDL) [3], normalized maximum likelihood (NML) [4], Hannan-Quinn criterion (HQC) [5], conditional model-order estimation (CME) [6], and the efficient detection criterion (EDC) [7]. From a practical point of view, it is difficult to decide which model order selection criterion to use. Many of them perform reasonably well when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high. The discrepancies in their performance, however, become more evident when the SNR is low. In those situations, the performance of the given technique is not only determined by the model structure (say a polynomial trend versus a Fourier series) but, more importantly, by the relative values of the parameters within the model. This makes the comparison between the model-order selection algorithms difficult as within the same model with a given order one could find an example for which one of the methods performs favourably well or fails [6, 8]. Our aim is to improve the performance of the model order selection criteria in cases where the SNR is low by considering a model-selection searching procedure that takes into account not only the full-model order search but also a partial model order search within the given model order. Understandably, the improvement in the performance of the model order estimation is at the expense of additional computational complexity.

Multiple evolutionary rate classes in animal genome evolution

The proportion of functional sequence in the human genome is currently a subject of debate. The most widely accepted figure is that approximately 5% is under purifying selection. In Drosophila, estimates are an order of magnitude higher, though this corresponds to a similar quantity of sequence. These estimates depend on the difference between the distribution of genomewide evolutionary rates and that observed in a subset of sequences presumed to be neutrally evolving. Motivated by the widening gap between these estimates and experimental evidence of genome function, especially in mammals, we developed a sensitive technique for evaluating such distributions and found that they are much more complex than previously apparent. We found strong evidence for at least nine well-resolved evolutionary rate classes in an alignment of four Drosophila species and at least seven classes in an alignment of four mammals, including human. We also identified at least three rate classes in human ancestral repeats. By positing that the largest of these ancestral repeat classes is neutrally evolving, we estimate that the proportion of nonneutrally evolving sequence is 30% of human ancestral repeats and 45% of the aligned portion of the genome. However, we also question whether any of the classes represent neutrally evolving sequences and argue that a plausible alternative is that they reflect variable structure-function constraints operating throughout the genomes of complex organisms.

The influence of glass types on the performance of air-conditioned office buildings in Australia

Windows are one of the most significant elements in the design of buildings. Whether there are small punched openings in the facade or a completely glazed curtain wall, windows are usually a dominant feature of the building's exterior appearance. From the energy use perspective, windows may also be regarded as thermal holes for a building. Therefore, window design and selection must take both aesthetics and serviceability into consideration. In this paper, using building computer simulation techniques, the effects of glass types on the thermal and energy performance of a sample air-conditioned office building in Australia are studied. It is found that a glass type with lower shading coefficient will have a lower building cooling load and total energy use. Through the comparison of results between current and future weather scenarios, it is identified that the pattern found from the current weather scenario would also exist in the future weather scenario, although the scale of change would become smaller. The possible implication of glazing selection in face of global warming is also examined. It is found that compared with its influence on building thermal performance, its influence on the building energy use is relatively small or insignificant.

Practical decision support system evaluation for consultant selection

The widespread development of Decision Support System (DSS) in construction indicate that the evaluation of software become more important than before. However, it is identified that most research in construction discipline did not attempt to assess its usability. Therefore, little is known about the approach on how to properly evaluate a DSS for specific problem. In this paper, we present a practical framework that can be guidance for DSS evaluation. It focuses on how to evaluate software that is dedicatedly designed for consultant selection problem. The framework features two main components i.e. Sub-system Validation and Face Validation. Two case studies of consultant selection at Malaysian Department of Irrigation and Drainage were integrated in this framework. Some inter-disciplinary area such as Software Engineering, Human Computer Interaction (HCI) and Construction Project Management underpinned the discussion of the paper. It is anticipated that this work can foster better DSS development and quality decision making that accurately meet the client’s expectation and needs

A strategy for delayed research method selection : deciding between grounded theory and phenomenology

This paper presents a strategy for delayed research method selection in a qualitative interpretivist research. An exemplary case details how explorative interviews were designed and conducted in accordance with a paradigm prior to deciding whether to adopt grounded theory or phenomenology for data analysis. The focus here is to determine the most appropriate research strategy in this case the methodological framing to conduct research and represent findings, both of which are detailed. Research addressing current management issues requires both a flexible framework and the capability to consider the research problem from various angles, to derive tangible results for academia with immediate application to business demands. Researchers, and in particular novices, often struggle to decide on an appropriate research method suitable to address their research problem. This often applies to interpretative qualitative research where it is not always immediately clear which is the most appropriate method to use, as the research objectives shift and crystallize over time. This paper uses an exemplary case to reveal how the strategy for delayed research method selection contributes to deciding whether to adopt grounded theory or phenomenology in the initial phase of a PhD research project. In this case, semi-structured interviews were used for data generation framed in an interpretivist approach, situated in a business context. Research questions for this study were thoroughly defined and carefully framed in accordance with the research paradigm‟s principles, while at the same time ensuring that the requirements of both potential research methods were met. The grounded theory and phenomenology methods were compared and contrasted to determine their suitability and whether they meet the research objectives based on a pilot study. The strategy proposed in this paper is an alternative to the more „traditional‟ approach, which initially selects the methodological formulation, followed by data generation. In conclusion, the suggested strategy for delayed research method selection intends to help researchers identify and apply the most appropriate method to their research. This strategy is based on explorations of data generation and analysis in order to derive faithful results from the data generated.

Time-dependent rates of molecular evolution

For over half a century, it has been known that the rate of morphological evolution appears to vary with the time frame of measurement. Rates of microevolutionary change, measured between successive generations, were found to be far higher than rates of macroevolutionary change inferred from the fossil record. More recently, it has been suggested that rates of molecular evolution are also time dependent, with the estimated rate depending on the timescale of measurement. This followed surprising observations that estimates of mutation rates, obtained in studies of pedigrees and laboratory mutation-accumulation lines, exceeded long-term substitution rates by an order of magnitude or more. Although a range of studies have provided evidence for such a pattern, the hypothesis remains relatively contentious. Furthermore, there is ongoing discussion about the factors that can cause molecular rate estimates to be dependent on time. Here we present an overview of our current understanding of time-dependent rates. We provide a summary of the evidence for time-dependent rates in animals, bacteria and viruses. We review the various biological and methodological factors that can cause rates to be time dependent, including the effects of natural selection, calibration errors, model misspecification and other artefacts. We also describe the challenges in calibrating estimates of molecular rates, particularly on the intermediate timescales that are critical for an accurate characterization of time-dependent rates. This has important consequences for the use of molecular-clock methods to estimate timescales of recent evolutionary events.

Bin Laden in the Suburbs: Criminalising the Arab Other

This book examines public worrying over 'ethnic crime' and what it tells us about Australia today. How, for instance, can the blame for a series of brutal group sexual assaults in Sydney be so widely attributed to whole ethnic communities? How is it that the arrival of a foundering boatload of asylum-seekers mostly seeking refuge from despotic regimes in 'the Middle East' can be manipulated to characterise complete cohorts of applicants for refuge 'and their immigrant compatriots' as dangerous, dishonest, criminally inclined and inhuman? How did the airborne terror attacks on the USA on 11 September 2001 exacerbate existing tendencies in Australia to stereotype Arabs and Muslims as backward, inassimilable, without respect for Western laws and values, and complicit with barbarism and terrorism? Bin Laden in the Suburbs argues that we are witnessing the emergence of the 'Arab Other' as the pre-eminent 'folk devil' of our time. This Arab Other functions in the national imaginary to prop up the project of national belonging. It has little to do with the lived experiences of Arab, Middle Eastern or Muslim Australians, and everything to do with a host of social anxieties which overlap in a series of moral panics. Bin Laden in the Suburbs analyses a decisive moment in the history of multiculturalism in Australia. 'Unlike most migrants, the Arab migrant is a subversive will ... They invade our shores, take over our neighbourhood and rape our women. They are all little bin Ladens and they are everywhere: Explicit bin Ladens and closet bin Ladens; Conscious bin Ladens and unconscious bin Ladens; bin Ladens on the beach and bin Ladens in the suburbs, as this book is aptly titled. Within this register ... even a single Arab is a threat. Contain the Arab or exterminate the Arab? A 'tolerable' presence in the suburbs, or caged in a concentration camp? ... The politics of the Western post-colonial state is constantly and dangerously oscillating between these tendencies today. It is this dangerous oscillation that is so lucidly exposed in this book'.

Formal complaints of workplace sexual harassment lodged with Australian Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commissions - 1 July 2009 - 31 December 2009

This report presents an analysis of quantitative data collected from the Australian Human Rights Commission, the Anti-Discrimination Commission of Queensland, the Victorian Equal Opportunity and Human Rights Commission, the Anti-Discrimination Board of New South Wales, the Equal Opportunity Commission of South Australia, the Australian Capital Territory Human Rights Commission, the Equal Opportunity Commission Western Australia, the Northern Territory Anti-Discrimination Commission, and the Office of the Anti-Discrimination Commissioner (Tasmania) (hereafter referred to as the Commissions). The data comprise formal complaints lodged under the various federal, state and territory anti-discrimination laws in the period 1 July 2009 to 31 December 2009 where a complainant had alleged sexual harassment in the area of employment.

The benefits of tree-based models for stock selection

The identification of the primary drivers of stock returns has been of great interest to both financial practitioners and academics alike for many decades. Influenced by classical financial theories such as the CAPM (Sharp, 1964; Lintner, 1965) and APT (Ross, 1976), a linear relationship is conventionally assumed between company characteristics as derived from their financial accounts and forward returns. Whilst this assumption may be a fair approximation to the underlying structural relationship, it is often adopted for the purpose of convenience. It is actually quite rare that the assumptions of distributional normality and a linear relationship are explicitly assessed in advance even though this information would help to inform the appropriate choice of modelling technique. Non-linear models have nevertheless been applied successfully to the task of stock selection in the past (Sorensen et al, 2000). However, their take-up by the investment community has been limited despite the fact that researchers in other fields have found them to be a useful way to express knowledge and aid decision-making...

Stability studies of HIV-1 Pr55gag virus-like particles made in insect cells after storage in various formulation media

Background: HIV-1 Pr55gag virus-like particles (VLPs) expressed by baculovirus in insect cells are considered to be a very promising HIV-1 vaccine candidate, as they have been shown to elicit broad cellular immune responses when tested in animals, particularly when used as a boost to DNA or BCG vaccines. However, it is important for the VLPs to retain their structure for them to be fully functional and effective. The medium in which the VLPs are formulated and the temperature at which they are stored are two important factors affecting their stability. FINDINGS We describe the screening of 3 different readily available formulation media (sorbitol, sucrose and trehalose) for their ability to stabilise HIV-1 Pr55gag VLPs during prolonged storage. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) was done on VLPs stored at two different concentrations of the media at three different temperatures (4[degree sign]C, --20[degree sign]C and -70[degree sign]C) over different time periods, and the appearance of the VLPs was compared. VLPs stored in 15% trehalose at -70[degree sign]C retained their original appearance the most effectively over a period of 12 months. VLPs stored in 5% trehalose, sorbitol or sucrose were not all intact even after 1 month storage at the temperatures tested. In addition, we showed that VLPs stored under these conditions were able to be frozen and re-thawed twice before showing changes in their appearance. Conclusions Although the inclusion of other analytical tools are essential to validate these preliminary findings, storage in 15% trehalose at -70[degree sign]C for 12 months is most effective in retaining VLP stability.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtype C Gag virus-like particle boost substantially improves the immune response to a subtype C gag DNA vaccine in mice

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype C is the predominant HIV in southern Africa, and is the target of a number of recent vaccine candidates. It has been proposed that a heterologous prime/boost vaccination strategy may result in stronger, broader and more prolonged immune responses. Since HIV-1 Gag Pr55 polyprotein can assemble into virus-like particles (VLPs) which have been shown to induce a strong cellular immune response in animals, we showed that a typical southern African subtype C Pr55 protein expressed in insect cells via recombinant baculovirus could form VLPs. We then used the baculovirus-produced VLPs as a boost to a subtype C HIV-1 gag DNA prime vaccination in mice. This study shows that a low dose of HIV-1 subtype C Gag VLPs can significantly boost the immune response to a single subtype C gag DNA inoculation in mice. These results suggest a possible vaccination regimen for humans. © 2004 SGM.