Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

Local Trigonometric Methods for Time Series Smoothing.

The thesis is concerned with local trigonometric regression methods. The aim was to develop a method for extraction of cyclical components in time series. The main results of the thesis are the following. First, a generalization of the filter proposed by Christiano and Fitzgerald is furnished for the smoothing of ARIMA(p,d,q) process. Second, a local trigonometric filter is built, with its statistical properties. Third, they are discussed the convergence properties of trigonometric estimators, and the problem of choosing the order of the model. A large scale simulation experiment has been designed in order to assess the performance of the proposed models and methods. The results show that local trigonometric regression may be a useful tool for periodic time series analysis.

Atomic-scale characterization of diamond surfaces and fullerene self-assembly

In this thesis, elemental research towards the implantation of a diamond-based molecular quantum computer is presented. The approach followed requires linear alignment of endohedral fullerenes on the diamond C(100) surface in the vicinity of subsurface NV-centers. From this, four fundamental experimental challenges arise: 1) The well-controlled deposition of endohedral fullerenes on a diamond surface. 2) The creation of NV-centers in diamond close to the surface. 3) Preparation and characterization of atomically-flat diamondsurfaces. 4) Assembly of linear chains of endohedral fullerenes. First steps to overcome all these challenges were taken in the framework of this thesis. Therefore, a so-called “pulse injection” technique was implemented and tested in a UHV chamber that was custom-designed for this and further tasks. Pulse injection in principle allows for the deposition of molecules from solution onto a substrate and can therefore be used to deposit molecular species that are not stable to sublimation under UHV conditions, such as the endohedral fullerenes needed for a quantum register. Regarding the targeted creation of NV-centers, FIB experiments were carried out in cooperation with the group of Prof. Schmidt-Kaler (AG Quantum, Physics Department, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz). As an entry into this challenging task, argon cations were implanted into (111) surface-oriented CaF2 crystals. The resulting implantation spots on the surface were imaged and characterized using AFM. In this context, general relations between the impact of the ions on the surface and their valency or kinetic energy, respectively, could be established. The main part of this thesis, however, is constituted by NCAFM studies on both, bare and hydrogen-terminated diamond C(100) surfaces. In cooperation with the group of Prof. Dujardin (Molecular Nanoscience Group, ISMO, Université de Paris XI), clean and atomically-flat diamond surfaces were prepared by exposure of the substrate to a microwave hydrogen plasma. Subsequently, both surface modifications were imaged in high resolution with NC-AFM. In the process, both hydrogen atoms in the unit cell of the hydrogenated surface were resolved individually, which was not achieved in previous STM studies of this surface. The NC-AFM images also reveal, for the first time, atomic-resolution contrast on the clean, insulating diamond surface and provide real-space experimental evidence for a (2×1) surface reconstruction. With regard to the quantum computing concept, high-resolution NC-AFM imaging was also used to study the adsorption and self-assembly potential of two different kinds of fullerenes (C60 and C60F48) on aforementioned diamond surfaces. In case of the hydrogenated surface, particular attention was paid to the influence of charge transfer doping on the fullerene-substrate interaction and the morphology emerging from self-assembly. Finally, self-assembled C60 islands on the hydrogen-terminated diamond surface were subject to active manipulation by an NC-AFM tip. Two different kinds of tip-induced island growth modes have been induced and were presented. In conclusion, the results obtained provide fundamental informations mandatory for the realization of a molecular quantum computer. In the process it was shown that NC-AFM is, under proper circumstances, a very capable tool for imaging diamond surfaces with highest resolution, surpassing even what has been achieved with STM up to now. Particular attention was paid to the influence of transfer doping on the morphology of fullerenes on the hydrogenated diamond surface, revealing new possibilities for tailoring the self-assembly of molecules that have a high electron affinity.

Revealing atomic-scale details in the force fields above carbonate surfaces

Diese Arbeit stellt eine ausführliche Studie fundamentaler Eigenschaften der Kalzit CaCO3(10.4) und verwandter Mineraloberflächen dar, welche nicht nur durch die Verwendung von Nichtkontakt Rasterkraftmikroskopie, sondern hauptsächlich durch die Messung von Kraftfeldern ermöglicht wurde. Die absolute Oberflächenorientierung sowie der hierfür zugrundeliegende Prozess auf atomarer Skala konnten erfolgreich für die Kalzit (10.4) Oberfläche identifiziert werden.rnDie Adsorption chiraler Moleküle auf Kalzit ist relevant im Bereich der Biomineralisation, was ein Verständnis der Oberflächensymmetrie unumgänglich macht. Die Messung des Oberflächenkraftfeldes auf atomarer Ebene ist hierfür ein zentraler Aspekt. Eine solche Kraftkarte beleuchtet nicht nur die für die Biomineralisation wichtige Wechselwirkung der Oberfläche mit Molekülen, sondern enthält auch die Möglichkeit, Prozesse auf atomarer Skala und damit Oberflächeneigenschaften zu identifizieren.rnDie Einführung eines höchst flexiblen Messprotokolls gewährleistet die zuverlässige und kommerziell nicht erhältliche Messung des Oberflächenkraftfeldes. Die Konversion der rohen ∆f Daten in die vertikale Kraft Fz ist jedoch kein trivialer Vorgang, insbesondere wenn Glätten der Daten in Frage kommt. Diese Arbeit beschreibt detailreich, wie Fz korrekt für die experimentellen Bedingungen dieser Arbeit berechnet werden können. Weiterhin ist beschrieben, wie Lateralkräfte Fy und Dissipation Γ erhalten wurden, um das volle Potential dieser Messmethode auszureizen.rnUm Prozesse auf atomarer Skala auf Oberflächen zu verstehen sind die kurzreichweitigen, chemischen Kräfte Fz,SR von größter Wichtigkeit. Langreichweitige Beiträge müssen hierzu an Fz angefittet und davon abgezogen werden. Dies ist jedoch eine fehleranfällige Aufgabe, die in dieser Arbeit dadurch gemeistert werden konnte, dass drei unabhängige Kriterien gefunden wurden, die den Beginn zcut von Fz,SR bestimmen, was für diese Aufgabe von zentraler Bedeutung ist. Eine ausführliche Fehleranalyse zeigt, dass als Kriterium die Abweichung der lateralen Kräfte voneinander vertrauenswürdige Fz,SR liefert. Dies ist das erste Mal, dass in einer Studie ein Kriterium für die Bestimmung von zcut gegeben werden konnte, vervollständigt mit einer detailreichen Fehleranalyse.rnMit der Kenntniss von Fz,SR und Fy war es möglich, eine der fundamentalen Eigenschaften der CaCO3(10.4) Oberfläche zu identifizieren: die absolute Oberflächenorientierung. Eine starke Verkippung der abgebildeten Objekte

Dynamic distance analysis : new geometric data structures and algorithms for the real-time calculation of tolerance violating regions in the digital mockup process

In vielen Industriezweigen, zum Beispiel in der Automobilindustrie, werden Digitale Versuchsmodelle (Digital MockUps) eingesetzt, um die Konstruktion und die Funktion eines Produkts am virtuellen Prototypen zu überprüfen. Ein Anwendungsfall ist dabei die Überprüfung von Sicherheitsabständen einzelner Bauteile, die sogenannte Abstandsanalyse. Ingenieure ermitteln dabei für bestimmte Bauteile, ob diese in ihrer Ruhelage sowie während einer Bewegung einen vorgegeben Sicherheitsabstand zu den umgebenden Bauteilen einhalten. Unterschreiten Bauteile den Sicherheitsabstand, so muss deren Form oder Lage verändert werden. Dazu ist es wichtig, die Bereiche der Bauteile, welche den Sicherhabstand verletzen, genau zu kennen. rnrnIn dieser Arbeit präsentieren wir eine Lösung zur Echtzeitberechnung aller den Sicherheitsabstand unterschreitenden Bereiche zwischen zwei geometrischen Objekten. Die Objekte sind dabei jeweils als Menge von Primitiven (z.B. Dreiecken) gegeben. Für jeden Zeitpunkt, in dem eine Transformation auf eines der Objekte angewendet wird, berechnen wir die Menge aller den Sicherheitsabstand unterschreitenden Primitive und bezeichnen diese als die Menge aller toleranzverletzenden Primitive. Wir präsentieren in dieser Arbeit eine ganzheitliche Lösung, welche sich in die folgenden drei großen Themengebiete unterteilen lässt.rnrnIm ersten Teil dieser Arbeit untersuchen wir Algorithmen, die für zwei Dreiecke überprüfen, ob diese toleranzverletzend sind. Hierfür präsentieren wir verschiedene Ansätze für Dreiecks-Dreiecks Toleranztests und zeigen, dass spezielle Toleranztests deutlich performanter sind als bisher verwendete Abstandsberechnungen. Im Fokus unserer Arbeit steht dabei die Entwicklung eines neuartigen Toleranztests, welcher im Dualraum arbeitet. In all unseren Benchmarks zur Berechnung aller toleranzverletzenden Primitive beweist sich unser Ansatz im dualen Raum immer als der Performanteste.rnrnDer zweite Teil dieser Arbeit befasst sich mit Datenstrukturen und Algorithmen zur Echtzeitberechnung aller toleranzverletzenden Primitive zwischen zwei geometrischen Objekten. Wir entwickeln eine kombinierte Datenstruktur, die sich aus einer flachen hierarchischen Datenstruktur und mehreren Uniform Grids zusammensetzt. Um effiziente Laufzeiten zu gewährleisten ist es vor allem wichtig, den geforderten Sicherheitsabstand sinnvoll im Design der Datenstrukturen und der Anfragealgorithmen zu beachten. Wir präsentieren hierzu Lösungen, die die Menge der zu testenden Paare von Primitiven schnell bestimmen. Darüber hinaus entwickeln wir Strategien, wie Primitive als toleranzverletzend erkannt werden können, ohne einen aufwändigen Primitiv-Primitiv Toleranztest zu berechnen. In unseren Benchmarks zeigen wir, dass wir mit unseren Lösungen in der Lage sind, in Echtzeit alle toleranzverletzenden Primitive zwischen zwei komplexen geometrischen Objekten, bestehend aus jeweils vielen hunderttausend Primitiven, zu berechnen. rnrnIm dritten Teil präsentieren wir eine neuartige, speicheroptimierte Datenstruktur zur Verwaltung der Zellinhalte der zuvor verwendeten Uniform Grids. Wir bezeichnen diese Datenstruktur als Shrubs. Bisherige Ansätze zur Speicheroptimierung von Uniform Grids beziehen sich vor allem auf Hashing Methoden. Diese reduzieren aber nicht den Speicherverbrauch der Zellinhalte. In unserem Anwendungsfall haben benachbarte Zellen oft ähnliche Inhalte. Unser Ansatz ist in der Lage, den Speicherbedarf der Zellinhalte eines Uniform Grids, basierend auf den redundanten Zellinhalten, verlustlos auf ein fünftel der bisherigen Größe zu komprimieren und zur Laufzeit zu dekomprimieren.rnrnAbschießend zeigen wir, wie unsere Lösung zur Berechnung aller toleranzverletzenden Primitive Anwendung in der Praxis finden kann. Neben der reinen Abstandsanalyse zeigen wir Anwendungen für verschiedene Problemstellungen der Pfadplanung.

Design of a lab scale direct-filtration system and its application in process lab

The Environmental Process and Simulation Center (EPSC) at Michigan Technological University started accommodating laboratories for an Environmental Engineering senior level class CEE 4509 Environmental Process and Simulation Laboratory since 2004. Even though the five units that exist in EPSC provide the students opportunities to have hands-on experiences with a wide range of water/wastewater treatment technologies, a key module was still missing for the student to experience a full cycle of treatment. This project fabricated a direct-filtration pilot system in EPSC and generated a laboratory manual for education purpose. Engineering applications such as clean bed head loss calculation, backwash flowrate determination, multimedia density calculation and run length prediction are included in the laboratory manual. The system was tested for one semester and modifications have been made both to the direct filtration unit and the laboratory manual. Future work is also proposed to further refine the module.

Effect of high order interpolation in the stability and efficiency of the time-integration process in vorticity-velocity CFD algorithms

The numerical solution of the incompressible Navier-Stokes Equations offers an effective alternative to the experimental analysis of Fluid-Structure interaction i.e. dynamical coupling between a fluid and a solid which otherwise is very complex, time consuming and very expensive. To have a method which can accurately model these types of mechanical systems by numerical solutions becomes a great option, since these advantages are even more obvious when considering huge structures like bridges, high rise buildings, or even wind turbine blades with diameters as large as 200 meters. The modeling of such processes, however, involves complex multiphysics problems along with complex geometries. This thesis focuses on a novel vorticity-velocity formulation called the KLE to solve the incompressible Navier-stokes equations for such FSI problems. This scheme allows for the implementation of robust adaptive ODE time integration schemes and thus allows us to tackle the various multiphysics problems as separate modules. The current algorithm for KLE employs a structured or unstructured mesh for spatial discretization and it allows the use of a self-adaptive or fixed time step ODE solver while dealing with unsteady problems. This research deals with the analysis of the effects of the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) condition for KLE when applied to unsteady Stoke’s problem. The objective is to conduct a numerical analysis for stability and, hence, for convergence. Our results confirmthat the time step ∆t is constrained by the CFL-like condition ∆t ≤ const. hα, where h denotes the variable that represents spatial discretization.

Hands-on time during cardiopulmonary resuscitation is affected by the process of teambuilding: A prospective randomised simulator-based trial

Background Cardiac arrests are handled by teams rather than by individual health-care workers. Recent investigations demonstrate that adherence to CPR guidelines can be less than optimal, that deviations from treatment algorithms are associated with lower survival rates, and that deficits in performance are associated with shortcomings in the process of team-building. The aim of this study was to explore and quantify the effects of ad-hoc team-building on the adherence to the algorithms of CPR among two types of physicians that play an important role as first responders during CPR: general practitioners and hospital physicians. Methods To unmask team-building this prospective randomised study compared the performance of preformed teams, i.e. teams that had undergone their process of team-building prior to the onset of a cardiac arrest, with that of teams that had to form ad-hoc during the cardiac arrest. 50 teams consisting of three general practitioners each and 50 teams consisting of three hospital physicians each, were randomised to two different versions of a simulated witnessed cardiac arrest: the arrest occurred either in the presence of only one physician while the remaining two physicians were summoned to help ("ad-hoc"), or it occurred in the presence of all three physicians ("preformed"). All scenarios were videotaped and performance was analysed post-hoc by two independent observers. Results Compared to preformed teams, ad-hoc forming teams had less hands-on time during the first 180 seconds of the arrest (93 ± 37 vs. 124 ± 33 sec, P < 0.0001), delayed their first defibrillation (67 ± 42 vs. 107 ± 46 sec, P < 0.0001), and made less leadership statements (15 ± 5 vs. 21 ± 6, P < 0.0001). Conclusion Hands-on time and time to defibrillation, two performance markers of CPR with a proven relevance for medical outcome, are negatively affected by shortcomings in the process of ad-hoc team-building and particularly deficits in leadership. Team-building has thus to be regarded as an additional task imposed on teams forming ad-hoc during CPR. All physicians should be aware that early structuring of the own team is a prerequisite for timely and effective execution of CPR.

A Nonstationary Space-Time Gaussian Process Model for Partially Converged Simulations

In the context of expensive numerical experiments, a promising solution for alleviating the computational costs consists of using partially converged simulations instead of exact solutions. The gain in computational time is at the price of precision in the response. This work addresses the issue of fitting a Gaussian process model to partially converged simulation data for further use in prediction. The main challenge consists of the adequate approximation of the error due to partial convergence, which is correlated in both design variables and time directions. Here, we propose fitting a Gaussian process in the joint space of design parameters and computational time. The model is constructed by building a nonstationary covariance kernel that reflects accurately the actual structure of the error. Practical solutions are proposed for solving parameter estimation issues associated with the proposed model. The method is applied to a computational fluid dynamics test case and shows significant improvement in prediction compared to a classical kriging model.