When does direct real estate improve portfolio performance?

For over twenty years researchers have been recommending that investors diversify their portfolios by adding direct real estate. Based on the tenets of modern portfolio theory (MPT) investors are told that the primary reason they should include direct real estate is that they will enjoy decreased volatility (risk) through increased diversification. However, the MPT methodology hides where this reduction in risk originates. To over come this deficiency we use a four-quadrant approach to break down the co-movement between direct real estate and equities and bonds into negative and positive periods. Then using data for the last 25-years we show that for about 70% of the time a holding in direct real estate would have hurt portfolio returns, i.e. when the other assets showed positive performance. In other words, for only about 30% of the time would a holding in direct real estate lead to improvements in portfolio returns. However, this increase in performance occurs when the alternative asset showed negative returns. In addition, adding direct real estate always leads to reductions in portfolio risk, especially on the downside. In other words, although adding direct real estate helps the investor to avoid large losses it also reduces the potential for large gains. Thus, if the goal of the investor is offsetting losses, then the results show that direct real estate would have been of some benefit. So in answer to the question when does direct real estate improve portfolio performance the answer is on the downside, i.e. when it is most needed.

Case study on the whole life carbon cycle in buildings

Global temperatures are expected to rise by between 1.1 and 6.4oC this century, depending, to a large extent, on the amount of carbon we emit to the atmosphere from now onwards. This warming is expected to have very negative effects on many peoples and ecosystems and, therefore, minimising our carbon emissions is a priority. Buildings are estimated to be responsible for around 50% of carbon emissions in the UK. Potential reductions involve both operational emissions, produced during use, and embodied emissions, produced during manufacture of materials and components, and during construction, refurbishments and demolition. To date the major effort has focused on reducing the, apparently, larger operational element, which is more readily quantifiable and reduction measures are relatively straightforward to identify and implement. Various studies have compared the magnitude of embodied and operational emissions, but have shown considerable variation in the relative values. This illustrates the difficulties in quantifying embodied, as it requires a detailed knowledge of the processes involved in the different life cycle phases, and requires the use of consistent system boundaries. However, other studies have established the interaction between operational and embodied, which demonstrates the importance of considering both elements together in order to maximise potential reductions. This is borne out in statements from both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and The Low Carbon Construction Innovation and Growth Team of the UK Government. In terms of meeting the 2020 and 2050 timeframes for carbon reductions it appears to be equally, if not more, important to consider early embodied carbon reductions, rather than just future operational reductions. Future decarbonisation of energy supply and more efficient lighting and M&E equipment installed in future refits is likely to significantly reduce operational emissions, lending further weight to this argument. A method of discounting to evaluate the present value of future carbon emissions would allow more realistic comparisons to be made on the relative importance of the embodied and operational elements. This paper describes the results of case studies on carbon emissions over the whole lifecycle of three buildings in the UK, compares four available software packages for determining embodied carbon and suggests a method of carbon discounting to obtain present values for future emissions. These form the initial stages of a research project aimed at producing information on embodied carbon for different types of building, components and forms of construction, in a simplified form, which can be readily used by building designers in optimising building design in terms of minimising overall carbon emissions. Keywords: Embodied carbon; carbon emission; building; operational carbon.

Equivalence of weak formulations of the steady water waves equations

We prove the equivalence of three weak formulations of the steady water waves equations, namely: the velocity formulation, the stream function formulation and the Dubreil-Jacotin formulation, under weak Hölder regularity assumptions on their solutions.

Inequality, intergenerational mobility and redistributive policies under endogenous information

This paper presents a dynamic model to study how different levels of information about the root determinants of wealth (luck versus effort) can impact inequality and intergenerational mobility through societal beliefs, individual choices and redistributive policies. To my knowledge, the model presented is the first dynamicmodel in which skills are stochastic and both beliefs and voted redistribution are determined endogenously. The model is able to explain a number of empirical facts. Large empirical evidence shows that the difference in the political support for redistribution appears to reflect differences in the social perceptions regarding the determinants of individual wealth and the underlying sources of income inequality. Moreover the beliefs about the determinants of wealth impact individual choices of effort and therefore the beliefs about the determinants of wealth impact inequality and mobility both through choices of effort and redistributive policies. The model generates multiple equilibria (US versus Europe-type) which may account for the observed features not only in terms of societal beliefs and redistribution but also in terms of perceived versus real mobility and inequality.

Contrasting probabilistic scoring rules

There are several scoring rules that one can choose from in order to score probabilistic forecasting models or estimate model parameters. Whilst it is generally agreed that proper scoring rules are preferable, there is no clear criterion for preferring one proper scoring rule above another. This manuscript compares and contrasts some commonly used proper scoring rules and provides guidance on scoring rule selection. In particular, it is shown that the logarithmic scoring rule prefers erring with more uncertainty, the spherical scoring rule prefers erring with lower uncertainty, whereas the other scoring rules are indifferent to either option.

Neural responses to emotional faces in women recovered from anorexia nervosa

Impairments in emotional processing have been associated with anorexia nervosa. However, it is unknown whether neural and behavioural differences in the processing of emotional stimuli persist following recovery. The aim of this study was to investigate the neural processing of emotional faces in individuals recovered from anorexia nervosa compared with healthy controls. Thirty-two participants (16 recovered anorexia nervosa, 16 healthy controls) underwent a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scan. Participants viewed fearful and happy emotional faces and indicated the gender of the face presented. Whole brain analysis revealed no significant differences between the groups to the contrasts of fear versus happy and vice versa. Region of interest analysis demonstrated no significant differences in the neural response to happy or fearful stimuli between the groups in the amygdala or fusiform gyrus. These results suggest that processing of emotional faces may not be aberrant after recovery from anorexia nervosa.

Instantaneous threat detection based on a semantic representation of activities, zones and trajectories

Threat detection is a challenging problem, because threats appear in many variations and differences to normal behaviour can be very subtle. In this paper, we consider threats on a parking lot, where theft of a truck’s cargo occurs. The threats range from explicit, e.g. a person attacking the truck driver, to implicit, e.g. somebody loitering and then fiddling with the exterior of the truck in order to open it. Our goal is a system that is able to recognize a threat instantaneously as they develop. Typical observables of the threats are a person’s activity, presence in a particular zone and the trajectory. The novelty of this paper is an encoding of these threat observables in a semantic, intermediate-level representation, based on low-level visual features that have no intrinsic semantic meaning themselves. The aim of this representation was to bridge the semantic gap between the low-level tracks and motion and the higher-level notion of threats. In our experiments, we demonstrate that our semantic representation is more descriptive for threat detection than directly using low-level features. We find that a person’s activities are the most important elements of this semantic representation, followed by the person’s trajectory. The proposed threat detection system is very accurate: 96.6 % of the tracks are correctly interpreted, when considering the temporal context.

Rethinking the Conversion of Scotland in the fifth and sixth centuries

Reconsidering the initial Christian Conversion of Scotland in the fifth and sixth centuries AD, using archaeological and historical evidence, it is argued that this was carried out by missionaries from what had been Roman Britain. It is shown that this missionary activity - and similar British missions in Ireland - represents the first instance of Western missionary work beyond the former Roman imperial frontiers. The location of the northern frontier of Roman Britain in the fourth century, and the meaning of Pictish Class 1 symbol stones, are discussed as part of the broader argument.

A Parallel Hardware Architecture for Scale and Rotation Invariant Feature Detection

This paper proposes a parallel hardware architecture for image feature detection based on the Scale Invariant Feature Transform algorithm and applied to the Simultaneous Localization And Mapping problem. The work also proposes specific hardware optimizations considered fundamental to embed such a robotic control system on-a-chip. The proposed architecture is completely stand-alone; it reads the input data directly from a CMOS image sensor and provides the results via a field-programmable gate array coupled to an embedded processor. The results may either be used directly in an on-chip application or accessed through an Ethernet connection. The system is able to detect features up to 30 frames per second (320 x 240 pixels) and has accuracy similar to a PC-based implementation. The achieved system performance is at least one order of magnitude better than a PC-based solution, a result achieved by investigating the impact of several hardware-orientated optimizations oil performance, area and accuracy.

Testing permutation properties through subpermutations

There has been great interest in deciding whether a combinatorial structure satisfies some property, or in estimating the value of some numerical function associated with this combinatorial structure, by considering only a randomly chosen substructure of sufficiently large, but constant size. These problems are called property testing and parameter testing, where a property or parameter is said to be testable if it can be estimated accurately in this way. The algorithmic appeal is evident, as, conditional on sampling, this leads to reliable constant-time randomized estimators. Our paper addresses property testing and parameter testing for permutations in a subpermutation perspective; more precisely, we investigate permutation properties and parameters that can be well approximated based on a randomly chosen subpermutation of much smaller size. In this context, we use a theory of convergence of permutation sequences developed by the present authors [C. Hoppen, Y. Kohayakawa, C.G. Moreira, R.M. Sampaio, Limits of permutation sequences through permutation regularity, Manuscript, 2010, 34pp.] to characterize testable permutation parameters along the lines of the work of Borgs et al. [C. Borgs, J. Chayes, L Lovasz, V.T. Sos, B. Szegedy, K. Vesztergombi, Graph limits and parameter testing, in: STOC`06: Proceedings of the 38th Annual ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing, ACM, New York, 2006, pp. 261-270.] in the case of graphs. Moreover, we obtain a permutation result in the direction of a famous result of Alon and Shapira [N. Alon, A. Shapira, A characterization of the (natural) graph properties testable with one-sided error, SIAM J. Comput. 37 (6) (2008) 1703-1727.] stating that every hereditary graph property is testable. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Polymorphisms in genes involved in neurodevelopment may be associated with altered brain morphology in schizophrenia: Preliminary evidence

An abnormality in neurodevelopment is one of the most robust etiologic hypotheses in schizophrenia (SZ). There is also strong evidence that genetic factors may influence abnormal neurodevelopment in the disease. The present study evaluated in SZ patients, whose brain structural data had been obtained with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), the possible association between structural brain measures, and 32 DNA polymorphisms,located in 30 genes related to neurogenesis and brain development. DNA was extracted from peripheral blood cells of 25 patients with schizophrenia, genotyping was performed using diverse procedures, and putative associations were evaluated by standard statistical methods (using the software Statistical Package for Social Sciences - SPSS) with a modified Bonferroni adjustment. For reelin (RELN), a protease that guides neurons in the developing brain and underlies neurotransmission and synaptic plasticity in adults, an association was found for a non-synonymous polymorphism (Va1997Leu) with left and right ventricular enlargement. A putative association was also found between protocadherin 12 (PCDH12), a cell adhesion molecule involved in axonal guidance and synaptic specificity, and cortical folding (asymmetry coefficient of gyrification index). Although our results are preliminary, due to the small number of individuals analyzed, such an approach could reveal new candidate genes implicated in anomalous neurodevelopment in schizophrenia. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mídia e educação: a necessidade do multiletramento

Artigo publicado na revista Comunicação & Inovação de dez/2013